789 resultados para Competing risks


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Acknowledgments We thank A. B. Duthie, S. Losdat, and M. E. Wolak for useful discussions and comments and the European Research Council for funding. We also thank the two reviewers, whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.

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Acknowledgments We thank A. B. Duthie, S. Losdat, and M. E. Wolak for useful discussions and comments and the European Research Council for funding. We also thank the two reviewers, whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.

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Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS) and The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland [31860].

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The relationship between uncertainty and firms’ risk-taking behaviour has been a focus of investigation since early discussion of the nature of enterprise activity. Here, we focus on how firms’ perceptions of environmental uncertainty and their perceptions of the risks involved impact on their willingness to undertake green innovation. Analysis is based on a cross-sectional survey of UK food companies undertaken in 2008. The results reinforce the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and perceived innovation risk and emphasise the importance of macro-uncertainty in shaping firms’ willingness to undertake green innovation. The perceived (market-related) riskiness of innovation also positively influences the probability of innovating, suggesting either a proactive approach to stimulating market disruption or an opportunistic approach to innovation leadership.

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I develop a new methodology for measuring tail risks using the cross section of bid-ask spreads. Market makers embed tail risk information into spreads because (1) they lose to arbitrageurs when changes to asset values exceed the cost of liquidity and (2) underlying price movements and potential costs are linear in factor loadings. Using this insight, simple cross-sectional regressions relating spreads and trading volume to factor betas can recover tail risks in real time for priced or non-priced return factors. The methodology disentangles financial and aggregate market risks during the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis; anticipates jump risks associated with Federal Open Market Committee announcements; and quantifies a sharp, temporary increase in market tail risk before and throughout the 2010 Flash Crash. The recovered time series of implied market risks also aligns closely with both realized market jumps and the VIX.

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This chapter examines the legal concept of summary in terms of its potential legal liability and other types of risks under EU and US disclosure laws.

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The magnetic anisotropies of a patterned, exchange biased Fe50Mn50/Ni80Fe20 system are studied using ferromagnetic resonance, supplemented by Brillouin light scattering experiments and Kerr magnetometry. The exchange biased bi-layer is partially etched into an antidot geometry so that the system approximates a Ni80 Fe20 layer in contact with antidot structured Fe50 Mn50 . Brillouin light scattering measurements of the spin wave frequency dependence on the wave vector reveal a magnonic band gap as expected for a periodic modulation of the magnetic properties. Analysis of the ferromagnetic resonance spectra reveals 8-fold and 4-fold contributions to the magnetic anisotropy. Additionally, the antidot patterning decreases the magnitude of the exchange bias and modifies strongly its angular dependence. Softening of all resonance modes is most pronounced for the applied magnetic field aligned within 10◦ of the antidot axis, in the direction of the bias. Given the degree to which one can tailor the ground state, the resulting asymmetry at low frequencies could make this an interesting candidate for applications such as selective/directional microwave filtering and multi-state magnetic logic.

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Safety Management Systems in aviation generate training programs that develop skills needed to perform safety functions. The objective of this study is to show that, in groups, individuals need to have interpersonal skills and, in particular, ability to communicate with others, to listen, and to influence. It is for this reason that Social Skills Training is important in Aviation. Professionals trained in social skills are more likely to identify threats and risks caused by interpersonal situations, be assertive, and take appropriate action. As a contribution, this paper suggests a set of policies, procedures and practices for educating and training future professionals who will work in aviation safety.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

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Inland flood risks are defined by a range of environmental and social factors, including land use and floodplain management. Shifting patterns of storm intensity and precipitation, attributed to climate change, are exacerbating flood risk in regions across North America. Strategies for adapting to growing flood risks and climate change must account for a community’s specific vulnerabilities, and its local economic, environmental, and social conditions. Through a stakeholder-engaged methodology, we designed an interactive decision exercise to enable stakeholders to evaluate alternatives for addressing specific community flood vulnerabilities. We used a multicriteria framework to understand what drives stakeholder preferences for flood mitigation and adaptation alternatives, including ecosystem-based projects. Results indicated strong preferences for some ecosystem-based projects that utilize natural capital, generated a useful discussion on the role of individual values in driving decisions and a critique of local environmental and hazard planning procedure, and uncovered support for a river management alternative that had previously been considered socially infeasible. We conclude that a multicriteria decision framework may help ensure that the multiple benefit qualities of natural capital projects are considered by decision makers. Application of a utility function can demonstrate the role of individual decision-maker values in decision outcomes and help illustrate why one alternative may be a better choice than another. Although designing an efficient and accurate multicriteria exercise is quite challenging and often data intensive, we imagine that this method is applicable elsewhere. It may be especially suitable to group decisions that involve varying levels of expertise and competing values, as is often the case in planning for the ecological and human impacts of climate change.

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Christian Mikovits