850 resultados para Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in the 21st Century


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Keeled flowers are characteristic of many species of Polygalaceae (tribe Polygaleae), in which there is often a distinctive crest located at the abaxial petal. This study of floral ontogeny across the entire family highlights potential suites of characters that relate to the evolution of keeled and crested flowers. One character suite encompasses interconnected transformations of the lateral perianth organs acting as an evolutionary module: bracteoles, lateral sepals (with delayed initiation and petaloid appearance), and lateral petals (suppressed or lost). The plastochron between initiation of the lateral sepals and that of the other sepals is relatively long in the tribe Polygaleae, in which the calyx is usually heteromorphic. By contrast, in the petal whorl, the difference between a zygomorphic and an actinomorphic corolla involves organ suppression rather than heterochrony. Four primary androecial patterns are identified in the family, and the gynoecium ranges between syncarpous‐bicarpellate and multicarpellate. Stigma diversity is based on two primary morphological types: one in which the papillate stigmatic surfaces lie close together, the other in which they are physically separated. The floral ontogeny of Polygalaceae is considered alongside comparative data available for other members of the order Fabales, and hypotheses to account for the similarities and differences between keeled flowers are discussed.

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A distributed Lagrangian moving-mesh finite element method is applied to problems involving changes of phase. The algorithm uses a distributed conservation principle to determine nodal mesh velocities, which are then used to move the nodes. The nodal values are obtained from an ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian) equation, which represents a generalization of the original algorithm presented in Applied Numerical Mathematics, 54:450--469 (2005). Having described the details of the generalized algorithm it is validated on two test cases from the original paper and is then applied to one-phase and, for the first time, two-phase Stefan problems in one and two space dimensions, paying particular attention to the implementation of the interface boundary conditions. Results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the effectiveness of the method, including comparisons against analytical solutions where available.

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Svalgaard and Cliver (2010) recently reported a consensus between the various reconstructions of the heliospheric field over recent centuries. This is a significant development because, individually, each has uncertainties introduced by instrument calibration drifts, limited numbers of observatories, and the strength of the correlations employed. However, taken collectively, a consistent picture is emerging. We here show that this consensus extends to more data sets and methods than reported by Svalgaard and Cliver, including that used by Lockwood et al. (1999), when their algorithm is used to predict the heliospheric field rather than the open solar flux. One area where there is still some debate relates to the existence and meaning of a floor value to the heliospheric field. From cosmogenic isotope abundances, Steinhilber et al. (2010) have recently deduced that the near-Earth IMF at the end of the Maunder minimum was 1.80 ± 0.59 nT which is considerably lower than the revised floor of 4nT proposed by Svalgaard and Cliver. We here combine cosmogenic and geomagnetic reconstructions and modern observations (with allowance for the effect of solar wind speed and structure on the near-Earth data) to derive an estimate for the open solar flux of (0.48 ± 0.29) × 1014 Wb at the end of the Maunder minimum. By way of comparison, the largest and smallest annual means recorded by instruments in space between 1965 and 2010 are 5.75 × 1014 Wb and 1.37 × 1014 Wb, respectively, set in 1982 and 2009, and the maximum of the 11 year running means was 4.38 × 1014 Wb in 1986. Hence the average open solar flux during the Maunder minimum is found to have been 11% of its peak value during the recent grand solar maximum.

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We have examined the atmospheric water cycle of both Polar Regions, pole wards of 60°N and 60°S, using the ERA-Interim re-analysis and high-resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 model for both the present and future climate based on the IPCC, A1B scenario, representative of the last three decades of the 21st century. The annual precipitation in ERA-Interim amounts to ~17000 km3 and is more or less the same in the Arctic and the Antarctic, but it is composed differently. In the Arctic the annual evaporation is some 8000 km3 but some 3000 km3 less in the Antarctica where the net horizontal transport is correspondingly larger. The net water transport of the model is more intense than in ERA-Interim, in the Arctic the difference is 2.5% and in the Antarctic it is 6.2%. Precipitation and net horizontal transport in the Arctic has a maximum in August and September. Evaporation peaks in June and July. The seasonal cycle is similar in Antarctica with the highest precipitation in the austral autumn. The largest net transport occurs at the end of the major extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere such as the eastern Pacific and eastern north Atlantic. The variability of the model is virtually identical to that of the re-analysis and there are no changes in variability between the present climate and the climate at the end of the 21st century when normalized with the higher level of moisture. The changes from year to year are substantial with the 20 and 30-year records being generally too short to identify robust trends in the hydrological cycle. In the A1B climate scenario the strength of the water cycle increases by some 25% in the Arctic and by 19% in the Antarctica, as measured by annual precipitation. The increase in the net horizontal transport is 29% and 22% respectively, and the increase in evaporation correspondingly less. The net transport follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. There is 2 a minor change in the annual cycle of the Arctic atmospheric water cycle with the maximum transport and precipitation occurring later in the year. There is a small imbalance of some 4-6% between the net transport and precipitation minus evaporation. We suggest that this is mainly due to the fact the transport is calculated from instantaneous 6-hourly data while precipitation and evaporation is accumulated over a 6 hour period. The residual difference is proportionally similar for all experiments and hardly varies from year to year.

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Uranium series dating has been carried out on secondary uranyl silicate minerals formed during sub-glacial and post-glacial weathering of Proterozoic uraninite ores in south west Finland. The samples were obtained from two sites adjacent to the Salpauselkä III ice marginal formation and cover a range of depths, from the surface to more than 60 m. Measured ages fall into three distinct groups, 70–100 ka, 28–36 ka and < 2500 yr. The youngest set is associated with surface exposures and the crystals display clear evidence of re-working. The most likely trigger for uranium release at depths below the surface weathering zone is intrusion of oxidising glacial melt water. The latter is often characterised by very high discharge rates along channels, which close once the overpressure generated at the ice margin is released. There is excellent correspondence between the two Finnish sites and published data for similar deposits over a large area of southern and central Sweden. None of the seventy samples analysed gave a U–Th age between 40 and 70 ka; a second hiatus is apparent at 20 ka, coinciding with the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, the process responsible for uranyl silicate formation was halted for significant periods, owing to a change in geochemical conditions or the hydrogeological regime. These data support the presence of interstadial conditions during the Early and Middle Weichselian since in the absence of major climatic perturbations the uranium phases at depth are stable. When viewed in conjunction with proxy data from mammoth remains it would appear that the region was ice-free prior to the Last Glacial Maximum.

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New Worlds Reflected provides a significant contribution both to the history of utopian literature and travel, and to the wider cultural and intellectual history of the time, assembling original essays from scholars interested in representations of the globe and new and ideal worlds in the period from the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries, and in the imaginative reciprocal responsiveness of utopian and travel writing. Chapter 7 looks at the influence of Salomon’s House in Francis Bacon’s New Atlantis (1627) on later seventeenth-century educational utopias.

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One goal in the development of distributed virtual environments (DVEs) is to create a system such that users are unaware of the distribution-the distribution should be transparent. The paper begins by discussing the general issues in DVEs that might make this possible, and a system that allows some level of distribution transparency is described. The system described suffers from effects of inconsistency, which in turn cause undesirable visual effects. The causal surface is introduced as a solution that removes these visual effects. The paper then introduces two determining factors of distribution transparency relating to user perception and performance. With regard to these factors, two hypotheses are stated relating to the causal surface. A user-trial on forty-five subjects is used to validate the hypotheses. A discussion of the results of the trial concludes that the causal surface solution does significantly improve the distribution transparency in a DVE.

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The ancient civilizations were dependent upon sophisticated systems of water management. The hydraulic engineering works found in ancient Angkor (ninth to thirteenth century AD), the Aztec city of Tenochtitlan (thirteenth to fifteenth century AD), Byzantine Constantinople (fourth to sixth century AD) and Nabatean Petra (sixth century BC to AD 106) are particularly striking because each of these is in localities of the world that are once again facing a water crisis. Without water management, such ancient cities would never have emerged, nor would the urban communities and towns from which they developed. Indeed, the ‘domestication’ of water marked a key turning point in the cultural trajectory of each region of the world where state societies developed. This is illustrated by examining the prehistory of water management in the Jordan Valley, identifying the later Neolithic (approx. 8300–6500 years ago) as a key period when significant investment in water management occurred, laying the foundation for the development of the first urban communities of the Early Bronze Age.

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The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of an Escherichia coli with the multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) phenotype to withstand the stresses of slaughter compared to an isogenic progenitor strain. A wild type E. coli isolate (345-2RifC) of porcine origin was used to derive 3 isogenic MAR mutants. Escherichia coli 345-2RifC and its MAR derivatives were inoculated into separate groups of pigs. Once colonisation was established, the pigs were slaughtered and persistence of the E. coli strains in the abattoir environment and on the pig carcasses was monitored and compared. No significant difference (P>0.05) was detected between the shedding of the different E. coli strains from the live pigs. Both the parent strain and its MAR derivatives persisted in the abattoir environment, however the parent strain was recovered from 6 of the 13 locations sampled while the MAR derivatives were recovered from 11 of 13 and the number of MAR E. coil recovered was 10-fold higher than the parent strain at half of the locations. The parent strain was not recovered from any of the 6 chilled carcasses whereas the MAR derivatives were recovered from 3 out of 5 (P<0.001). This study demonstrates that the expression of MAR in 345-2RifC increased its ability to survive the stresses of the slaughter and chilling processes. Therefore in E. coli, MAR can give a selective advantage, compared to non-MAR strains, for persistence on chilled carcasses thereby facilitating transit of these strains through the food chain. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.