Using theory of change to achieve impact in AAS

The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework sets out four system level outcomes (SLOs), namely: reducing rural poverty, improving food security, improving nutrition and health and sustainable management of natural resources. In pursuit of these objectives the CGIAR has developed a set of sixteen CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs), each of which is expected to make specific contributions to a range of intermediate development outcomes (IDOs) linked to the SLOs. As part of this work the CRPs are developing impact pathways and theories of change designed to explain how the programs will achieve IDOs. The purpose of the present paper is to explain the approach that the CRP on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is taking to using these programmatic tools to help achieve impact.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Fish and habitat community assessments on North Carolina shipwrecks: potential sites for detecting climate change in the graveyard of the Atlantic

The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary (MNMS) was the nation’s first sanctuary, originally established in 1975 to protect the famous civil war ironclad shipwreck, the USS Monitor. Since 2008, sanctuary sponsored archeological research has branched out to include historically significant U-boats and World War II shipwrecks within the larger Graveyard of the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. These shipwrecks are not only important for their cultural value, but also as habitat for a wide diversity of fishes, invertebrates and algal species. Additionally, due to their unique location within an important area for biological productivity, the sanctuary and other culturally valuable shipwrecks within the Graveyard of the Atlantic are potential sites for examining community change. For this reason, from June 8-30, 2010, biological and ecological investigations were conducted at four World War II shipwrecks (Keshena, City of Atlanta, Dixie Arrow, EM Clark), as part of the MNMS 2010 Battle of the Atlantic (BOTA) research project. At each shipwreck site, fish community surveys were conducted and benthic photo-quadrats were collected to characterize the mobile conspicuous fish, smaller prey fish, and sessile invertebrate and algal communities. In addition, temperature sensors were placed at all four shipwrecks previously mentioned, as well as an additional shipwreck, the Manuela. The data, which establishes a baseline condition to use in future assessments, suggest strong differences in both the fish and benthic communities among the surveyed shipwrecks based on the oceanographic zone (depth). In order to establish these shipwrecks as sites for detecting community change it is suggested that a subset of locations across the shelf be selected and repeatedly sampled over time. In order to reduce variability within sites for both the benthic and fish communities, a significant number of surveys should be conducted at each location. This sampling strategy will account for the natural differences in community structure that exist across the shelf due to the oceanographic regime, and allow robust statistical analyses of community differences over time.

Fish for the future: Fisheries development and food security for Kiribati in an era of global climate change

The Republic of Kiribati is a vast South Pacific island group with one of the largest exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the world. Kiribati waters support a wealth of marine fisheries activities. These activities occur in oceanic, coastal and inshore environments and range from large, foreign, industrial-scale oceanic fishing operations to small-scale, domestic, inshore subsistence fisheries, aquaculture and recreational fisheries. Kiribati has developed a framework of domestic and international governance arrangements that are designed to sustainably manage its wealth of marine resources. The report provides background information for fisheries projects in Kiribati that aim to build food security, improve artisanal livelihoods and strengthen community engagement in fisheries governance. It provides information on the current status of Kiribati fishery resources (oceanic and coastal), their current governance and future challenges. Fish and fisher alike pay little heed to maritime boundaries and bureaucratic distinctions. This report covers both sides of the oceanic/coastal boundary because of the I-Kiribati communities’ interest in oceanic fisheries such as tuna and their heavy dependence on its fisheries resources for food security and economic development. The report focuses on two potential pilot sites for community-based fisheries management projects: North Tarawa and Butaritari.

Industrial practice in technology planning - Implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management

A survey on technology planning and its implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management was conducted. The survey provided a picture of technology planning, across a broad range of company size, manufacturing type and sector. It was concluded from the findings that technology planning is an important business activity across industry sectors and company types, driven increasing competition, market requirements and regulation technology change. The process technology roadmapping was used to support technology strategy and planning and could be useful way of structuring both the use of tools in a company and a tool catalogue.

Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance plumbing: Installing performance management systems to deliver lasting value

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of performance plumbing, arguing that too often performance management systems in organisations are not correctly installed. Without the appropriate plumbing, performance management systems do not drive organisational change and improvement. Design/methodology/approach - The paper draws on the consultancy experiences of two of the authors, as well as the research of the third. Specific case examples are provided throughout the paper to illustrate the points being made. Findings - The paper argues that the key elements of a plumbed-in performance management system are: performance architecture; performance insights; performance focus; and performance action. Taken together, these four elements provide the necessary plumbing to enable performance management systems to deliver real value. Research limitations/implications - The paper draws on the experience of the authors, rather than a formally designed piece of research. The ideas presented in the paper would therefore benefit from further investigation and testing. Originality/value - The paper will be valuable to scholars and practitioners interested in ensuring that performance management systems deliver lasting value. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Fishing gear selectivity in relation to their manufacture and to the management of fisheries of the Nile perch, the Nile tilapia, and Rastrineobola argentea (Mukene) in Lakes Victoria and Kyoga

The fisheries of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga have changed from the native tilapiine species and are now dominated by two introduced species; Nile perch and Nile tilapia, and one native species; Rastrineobola argentea (mukene). Because of the differences in the size of the species, it may be necessary to change the type and sizes of nets used.

A matrix-calculation-based algorithm for numerical change propagation analysis

Engineering changes (ECs) are raised throughout the lifecycle of engineering products. A single change to one component produces knock-on effects on others necessitating additional changes. This change propagation significantly affects the development time and cost and determines the product's success. Predicting and managing such ECs is, thus, essential to companies. Some prediction tools model change propagation by algorithms, whereof a subgroup is numerical. Current numerical change propagation algorithms either do not account for the exclusion of cyclic propagation paths or are based on exhaustive searching methods. This paper presents a new matrix-calculation-based algorithm which can be applied directly to a numerical product model to analyze change propagation and support change prediction. The algorithm applies matrix multiplications on mutations of a given design structure matrix accounting for the exclusion of self-dependences and cyclic propagation paths and delivers the same results as the exhaustive search-based Trail Counting algorithm. Despite its factorial time complexity, the algorithm proves advantageous because of its straightforward matrix-based calculations which avoid exhaustive searching. Thereby, the algorithm can be implemented in established numerical programs such as Microsoft Excel which promise a wider application of the tools within and across companies along with better familiarity, usability, practicality, security, and robustness. © 1988-2012 IEEE.

Key principles for developing industrially relevant strategic technology management toolkits

When considering the potential uptake and utilization of technology management tools by industry, it must be recognized that companies face the difficult challenges of selecting, adopting and integrating individual tools into a toolkit that must be implemented within their current organizational processes and systems. This situation is compounded by the lack of sound advice on integrating well-founded individual tools into a robust toolkit that has the necessary degree of flexibility such that they can be tailored for application to specific problems faced by individual organizations. As an initial stepping stone to offering a toolkit with empirically proven utility, this paper provides a conceptual foundation to the development of toolkits by outlining an underlying philosophical position based on observations from multiple research and commercial collaborations with industry. This stance is underpinned by a set of operationalized principles that can offer guidance to organizations when deciding upon the appropriate form, functions and features that should be embodied by any potential tool/toolkit. For example, a key objective of any tool is to aid decision-making and a core set of powerful, flexible, scaleable and modular tools should be sufficient to allow users to generate, explore, shape and implement possible solutions across a wide array of strategic issues. From our philosophical stance, the preferred mode of engagement is facilitated workshops with a participatory process that enables multiple perspectives and structures the conversation through visual representations in order to manage the cognitive load in the collaborative environment. The generic form of the tools should be configurable for the given context and utilized in a lightweight manner based on the premise of 'start small and iterate fast'. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.