938 resultados para Chaîne de Markov cachée


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Nombre de femmes paysannes haïtiennes migrent vers Port-au-Prince où elles deviennent travailleuses domestiques. Leur service domestique permet aux femmes qui les emploient de s'investir dans le travail non-domestique et de pouvoir accéder ainsi à la migration internationale. En France, ces migrantes deviennent à leur tour travailleuses domestiques, ce qui permet aux femmes françaises de s'investir dans le travail non-domestique. Ces phénomènes témoignent de l'existence d'une chaîne de travail et de migration où s'articulent les rapports sociaux de sexe, de classe, de race et les confrontations Nord/Sud, au coeur de la mondialisation néolibérale. Quelques-unes de ces femmes racontent leur histoire qui exprime à la fois la violence des rapports sociaux et leurs stratégies pour devenir sujet. Pour penser ces « Sujettes », je propose une approche qui croise la recherche féministe et la sociologie clinique sur les plans théorique, méthodologique et épistémologique. -- Many rural Haitian women migrate to Port-au-Prince and become domestic workers. Their domestic service allows other women to invest in the non-domestic work and access to international migration as well. In France, these Haitian migrants become domestic workers in turn, which allows French women to invest in the non-domestic work. These phenomena demonstrate the existence of a global work and migration chain where gender, class, race and the North/South confrontations are articulated, in the neoliberal globalization. Some of these women tell their life story which expresses both the violence of social problems and their strategies to become subject. To think these "subjects" I propose to cross feminist research and clinical sociology on the theoretical, methodological and epistemological point of view. Intersectionality among gender, race and class, North / South confrontations, productive and reproductive labour , domestic work, domestic service, care work , internal and international migration, neoliberal globalization, clinical sociology.

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BACKGROUND: Available methods to simulate nucleotide or amino acid data typically use Markov models to simulate each position independently. These approaches are not appropriate to assess the performance of combinatorial and probabilistic methods that look for coevolving positions in nucleotide or amino acid sequences. RESULTS: We have developed a web-based platform that gives a user-friendly access to two phylogenetic-based methods implementing the Coev model: the evaluation of coevolving scores and the simulation of coevolving positions. We have also extended the capabilities of the Coev model to allow for the generalization of the alphabet used in the Markov model, which can now analyse both nucleotide and amino acid data sets. The simulation of coevolving positions is novel and builds upon the developments of the Coev model. It allows user to simulate pairs of dependent nucleotide or amino acid positions. CONCLUSIONS: The main focus of our paper is the new simulation method we present for coevolving positions. The implementation of this method is embedded within the web platform Coev-web that is freely accessible at http://coev.vital-it.ch/, and was tested in most modern web browsers.

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A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable configurations are generated with positive probability, Lundh calls this percolation diffusion. An integral condition for percolation diffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

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La problématique : En Suisse, même si l'on constate une longue tradition du modèle de famille pluri-générationnelle multi-locale (Tourollier, 2009), l'évolution démographique a pour effet le vieillissement des aidants (Anchisi, 2010). La société véhicule l'idée que trop de personnes en perte d'autonomie sont abandonnées par leurs familles et que celles-ci relèguent toutes leurs responsabilités à l'Etat. Selon Pitaud (2009), cette vision est erronée, car son étude démontre que les membres de la famille forment généralement le noyau de ce réseau d'aide qui permet leur maintien à domicile. Il s'agit, pour l'auteur, d'une solution à la fois humaine et économiquement acceptable. Le contexte global du vieillissement et de la possibilité de fragilisation psychique suggère qu'une meilleure prise en compte des besoins de l'entourage des personnes souffrants de problématique de démence peut améliorer leur qualité ainsi que celle des proches aidants (Thomas, 2005). But : Cette étude quantitative vise à décrire la perception qu'ont les proches aidants de leur propre qualité de vie incluant leur vulnérabilité. Méthode: Cette étude quantitative descriptive corrélationnelle a été effectuée auprès de 30 proches aidants, recrutés selon un échantillonnage non probabiliste. Pour les corrélations exploratoires, des tests de Pearson, Student, Wilcoxon ou Mann Whitney ont été effectués. Le questionnaire proposé est tiré des études Pixel et il contient des données sociodémographiques, quatre dimensions portant sur la qualité de vie perçue ainsi que deux dimensions sur la vulnérabilité. Résultats: L'âge moyen des proches aidants participant est de 77,47 ans (ÉT 4,74). Les résultats montrent que 40% d'entre eux sont impliqués dans l'aide auprès du malade depuis plus de cinq ans. La plus grande partie a un niveau de formation de type maîtrise professionnelle (70%). Le score moyen de la perception de la qualité de vie (max. 105 points) est de 63.20 (ÉT 10.25). La vulnérabilité perçue est divisée en deux dimensions (max 50 points par partie). Pour la dimension 1 ; la moyenne pour l'impact de la maladie est de 29.00 (ÉT 5.63). Pour la dimension 2 ; la moyenne de l'aggravation de la vulnérabilité, est de 34.26 (ÉT 10.25). Des corrélations exploratoires montrent que l'âge, la durée des soins, le genre sont associées avec une diminution de la qualité de vie ou l'aggravation de la vulnérabilité perçue. Conclusion : Malgré les limites de la présente étude qui sont liées à la petitesse de l'échantillon, les résultats sont conciliables avec les écrits antérieurs. Il serait judicieux de poursuivre des recherches sur ce sujet afin d'approfondir et d'affiner les représentations utiles au renforcement du rôle infirmier auprès des proches aidants d'une part et des autres professionnels du réseau de soin d'autre part, ceci dans le but de favoriser la promotion de la santé auprès des proches aidants qui sont un maillon indispensable dans la chaîne des soins.

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L'ARN polymérase 3 transcrit un petit groupe de gènes fortement exprimés et impliqués dans plusieurs mécanismes moléculaires. Les ARNs de transfert ou ARNt représentent plus ou moins la moitié du transcriptome de l'ARN polymérase 3. Ils sont directement impliqués dans la traduction des protéines en agissant comme transporteurs d'acides aminés qui sont incorporés à la chaîne naissante de polypeptides. Chez des levures cultivées dans un milieu jusqu'à épuisement des nutriments, Maf1 réprime la transcription par l'ARN polymérase 3, favorisant ainsi l'économie énergétique cellulaire. Dans un modèle de cellules de mammifères, MAF1 réprime aussi la transcription de l'ARN polymérase 3 dans des conditions de stress, cependant il n'existe aucune donnée quant à son rôle chez un mammifère vivant. Pendant mon doctorat, j'ai utilisé une souris délétée pour le gène Maf1 afin de connaître les effets de ce gène chez un mammifère. Etonnamment, la souris Maf1-­‐/-­‐ est résistante à l'obésité même si celle-­‐ci est nourrie avec une nourriture riche en matières grasses. Des études moléculaires et de métabolomiques ont montré qu'il existe des cycles futiles de production et dégradation des lipides et des ARNt, ce qui entraîne une augmentation de la dépense énergique et favorise la résistance à l'obésité. En plus de la caractérisation de la souris Maf1-­‐/-­‐, pendant ma thèse j'ai également développé une méthode afin de normaliser les données de ChIP-­‐sequencing. Cette méthode est fondée sur l'utilisation d'un contrôle interne, représenté ici par l'ajout d'une quantité fixe de chromatine provenant d'un organisme différent de celui étudié. La méthode a amélioré considérablement la reproductibilité des valeurs entre réplicas biologiques. Elle a aussi révélé des différences entre échantillons issus de conditions différentes. Une occupation supérieure de l'ARN polymérase 3 sur les gènes Pol 3 chez les souris Maf1 KO entraîne une augmentation du niveau de précurseurs d'ARNt, ayant pour effet probable la saturation de la machinerie de maturation des ARNt. En effet, chez les souris Maf1 KO, le pourcentage d'ARNt modifiés est plus faible que chez les souris type sauvage. Ce déséquilibre entre le niveau de précurseurs et d'ARNt matures entraîne une diminution de la traduction protéique. Ces résultats ont permis d'identifier de nouvelles fonctions pour la protéine MAF1, comme étant une protéine régulatrice à la fois de la transcription mais aussi de la traduction et en étant un cible potentielle au traitement à l'obésité. -- RNA polymerase III (Pol 3) transcribes a small set of highly expressed genes involved in different molecular mechanisms. tRNAs account for almost half of the Pol 3 transcriptome and are involved in translation, bringing a new amino into the nascent polypeptide chain. In yeast, under nutrient deprivation, Maf1 acts for cell energetic economy by repressing Pol 3 transcription. In mammalian cells, MAF1 also represses Pol 3 activity under conditions of serum deprivation or DNA damages but nothing is known about its role in a mammalian organism. During my thesis studies, I used a Maf1 KO mouse model to characterize the effects of Maf1 deletion in a living animal. Surprisingly, the MAF1 KO mouse developed an unexpected phenotype, being resistant to high fat diet-­‐induced obesity and displaying an extended lifespan. Molecular and metabolomics characterizations revealed futile cycles of lipids and tRNAs, which are produced and immediately degraded, which increases energy consumption in the Maf1 KO mouse and probably explains in part the protection to obesity. Additionally to the mouse characterization, I also developed a method to normalize ChIP-­‐seq data, based on the addition of a foreign chromatin to be used as an internal control. The method improved reproducibility between replicates and revealed differences of Pol 3 occupancy between WT and Maf1 KO samples that were not seen without normalization to the internal control. I then established that increased Pol 3 occupancy in the Maf1 KO mouse liver was associated with increased levels of tRNA precursor but not of mature tRNAs, the effective molecules involved in translation. The overproduction of precursor tRNAs associated with the deletion of Maf1 apparently overwhelms the tRNA processing machinery as the Maf1 KO mice have lower levels of fully modified tRNAs. This maturation defect directly impacts on translation efficiency as polysomic fractions and newly synthetized protein levels were reduced in the liver of the Maf1 KO mouse. Altogether, these results indicate new functions for MAF1, a regulator of both transcription and translation as well as a potential target for obesity treatment.

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Objectives: The aim of the study was to combine clinical results from the European Cohort of the REVERSE study and costs associated with the addition of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with mild symptomatic (NYHA I-II) or asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and markers of cardiac dyssynchrony in Spain. Methods: A Markov model was developed with CRT + OMT (CRT-ON) versus OMT only (CRT-OFF) based on a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Raw data was derived from literature and expert opinion, reflecting clinical and economic consequences of patient"s management in Spain. Time horizon was 10 years. Both costs (euro 2010) and effects were discounted at 3 percent per annum. Results: CRT-ON showed higher total costs than CRT-OFF; however, CRT reduced the length of hospitalization in ICU by 94 percent (0.006 versus 0.091 days) and general ward in by 34 percent (0.705 versus 1.076 days). Surviving CRT-ON patients (88.2 percent versus 77.5 percent) remained in better functional class longer, and they achieved an improvement of 0.9 life years (LYGs) and 0.77 years quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). CRT-ON proved to be cost-effective after 6 years, except for the 7th year due to battery depletion. At 10 years, the results were 18,431 per LYG and 21,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed CRT-ON was cost-effective in 75.4 percent of the cases at 10 years. Conclusions: The use of CRT added to OMT represents an efficient use of resources in patients suffering from heart failure in NYHA functional classes I and II.

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Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

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This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

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The optimal design of a heat exchanger system is based on given model parameters together with given standard ranges for machine design variables. The goals set for minimizing the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) function which represents the price of the saved energy, for maximizing the momentary heat recovery output with given constraints satisfied and taking into account the uncertainty in the models were successfully done. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) for the design optimization of a system is presented and implemented inMatlab environment. Markov ChainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods are also used to take into account the uncertainty in themodels. Results show that the price of saved energy can be optimized. A wet heat exchanger is found to be more efficient and beneficial than a dry heat exchanger even though its construction is expensive (160 EUR/m2) compared to the construction of a dry heat exchanger (50 EUR/m2). It has been found that the longer lifetime weights higher CAPEX and lower OPEX and vice versa, and the effect of the uncertainty in the models has been identified in a simplified case of minimizing the area of a dry heat exchanger.

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This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

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Data traffic caused by mobile advertising client software when it is communicating with the network server can be a pain point for many application developers who are considering advertising-funded application distribution, since the cost of the data transfer might scare their users away from using the applications. For the thesis project, a simulation environment was built to mimic the real client-server solution for measuring the data transfer over varying types of connections with different usage scenarios. For optimising data transfer, a few general-purpose compressors and XML-specific compressors were tried for compressing the XML data, and a few protocol optimisations were implemented. For optimising the cost, cache usage was improved and pre-loading was enhanced to use free connections to load the data. The data traffic structure and the various optimisations were analysed, and it was found that the cache usage and pre-loading should be enhanced and that the protocol should be changed, with report aggregation and compression using WBXML or gzip.

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We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal rules prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process.

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The identifiability of the parameters of a heat exchanger model without phase change was studied in this Master’s thesis using synthetically made data. A fast, two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was tested with a couple of case studies and a heat exchanger model. The two-step MCMC-method worked well and decreased the computation time compared to the traditional MCMC-method. The effect of measurement accuracy of certain control variables to the identifiability of parameters was also studied. The accuracy used did not seem to have a remarkable effect to the identifiability of parameters. The use of the posterior distribution of parameters in different heat exchanger geometries was studied. It would be computationally most efficient to use the same posterior distribution among different geometries in the optimisation of heat exchanger networks. According to the results, this was possible in the case when the frontal surface areas were the same among different geometries. In the other cases the same posterior distribution can be used for optimisation too, but that will give a wider predictive distribution as a result. For condensing surface heat exchangers the numerical stability of the simulation model was studied. As a result, a stable algorithm was developed.

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Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.