Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

A non-possibility theorem for joint-stability in interindustry models

Joint-stability in interindustry models relates to the mutual simultaneous consistency of the demand-driven and supply-driven models of Leontief and Ghosh, respectively. Previous work has claimed joint-stability to be an acceptable assumption from the empirical viewpoint, provided only small changes in exogenous variables are considered. We show in this note, however, that the issue has deeper theoretical roots and offer an analytical demonstration that shows the impossibility of consistency between demand-driven and supply-driven models.

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar : Eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar: eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense Entrevistar infants en edat preescolar que han viscut una situació traumàtica és una tasca complexa que dins l’avaluació psicològica forense necessita d’un protocol perfectament delimitat, clar i temporalitzat. Per això, s’han seleccionat 3 protocols d’entrevista: el Protocol de Menors (PM) de Bull i Birch, el model del National Institute for Children Development (NICHD) de Michel Lamb, a partir del qual es va desenvolupar l’EASI (Evaluación del Abuso Sexual Infantojuvenil) i l’Entrevista Cognitiva (EC) de Fisher i Geiselman. La hipòtesi de partida vol comprovar si els anteriors models permeten obtenir volums informatius diferents en infants preescolars. Conseqüentment, els objectius han estat determinar quin dels models d’entrevista permet obtenir un volum informatiu amb més precisions i menys errors, dissenyar un model d’entrevista propi i consensuar aquest model. En el treball s’afegeixen esquemes pràctics que facilitin l’obertura, desenvolupament i tancament de l’entrevista forense. La metodologia ha reproduït el binomi infant - esdeveniment traumàtic, mitjançant la visualització i l’explicació d’un fet emocionalment significatiu amb facilitat per identificar-se: l’accident en bicicleta d’un infant que cau, es fa mal, sagna i el seu pare el cura. A partir d’aquí, hem entrevistat 135 infants de P3, P4 i P5, mitjançant els 3 models d’entrevista referits, enfrontant-los a una demanda específica: recordar i narrar aquest esdeveniment. S’ha conclòs que el nivell de record correcte, quan s’utilitza un model d’entrevista adequat amb els infants en edat preescolar, oscil•la entre el 70-90%, fet que permet defensar la confiança en els records dels infants. Es constata que el percentatge d’emissions incorrectes dels infants en edat preescolar és mínim, al voltant d’un 5-6%. L’estudi remarca la necessitat d’establir perfectament les regles de l’entrevista i, per últim, en destaca la ineficàcia de les tècniques de memòria de l’entrevista cognitiva en els infants de P3 i P4. En els de P5 es comencen a veure beneficis gràcies a la tècnica de la reinstauració contextual (RC), estant les altres tècniques fora de la comprensió i utilització dels infants d’aquestes edats. Interviewing preschoolers victims of sexual abuse and/or domestic abuse: Effectiveness of forensic interviews models 135 preschool children were interviewed with 3 different interview models in order to remember a significant emotional event. Authors conclude that the correct recall of children ranging from 70-90% and the percentage of error messages is 5-6%. It is necessary to fully establish the rules of the interview. The present research highlights the effectiveness of the cognitive interview techniques in children from P3 and P4. Entrevistando niños preescolares víctimas de abuso sexual y/o maltrato familiar: eficacia de los modelos de entrevista forense Se han entrevistado 135 niños preescolares con 3 modelos de entrevista diferentes para recordar un hecho emocionalmente significativo. Se concluye que el recuerdo correcto de los niños oscila entre el 70-90% y el porcentaje de errores de mensajes es del 5-6%. El estudio remarca la necesidad de establecer perfectamente las reglas de la entrevista y se destaca la ineficacia de las técnicas de la entrevista cognitiva en los niños de P3 y P4.

Immunization with PIII, a fraction of Schistosoma mansoni soluble adult worm antigenic preparation, affects nitric oxide production by murine spleen cells

Nitric oxide (NO) is an important effector molecule involved in immune regulation and defense. NO produced by cytokine-activated macrophages was reported to be cytotoxic against the helminth Schistosoma mansoni. Identification and characterization of S. mansoni antigens that can provide protective immunity is crucial for understanding the complex immunoregulatory events that modulate the immune response in schistosomiasis. It is, then, essential to have available defined, purified parasite antigens. Previous work by our laboratory identified a fraction of S. mansoni soluble adult worm antigenic preparation (SWAP), named PIII, able to elicit significant in vitro cell proliferation and at the same time lower in vitro and in vivo granuloma formation when compared either to SEA (soluble egg antigen) or to SWAP. In the present work we report the effect of different in vivo trials with mice on their spleen cells ability to produce NO. We demonstrate that PIII-immunization is able to significantly increase NO production by spleen cells after in vitro stimulation with LPS. These data suggest a possible role for NO on the protective immunity induced by PIII.

Induction of protective immunity against Schistosoma mansoni infection by antigens purified from PIII, a fraction of adult worm, associated to the downregulation of granuloma formation

This study was performed in order to define Schistosoma mansoni antigens able to function as modulator agents in BALB/c mice granulomatous hypersensitivity to parasite egg. The antigens P-24, P-35 and P-97 were purified by affinity chromatography from a fraction of S. mansoni adult worm antigenic preparation, denominated PIII, involved in the inhibition of granulomatous response to eggs. Immunization of mice with these antigens, in the presence of Corynebacterium parvum and Al(OH)3 as adjuvant, induced a significant protection degree against challenge infection, as observed by the decrease on worm burden recovered from portal system. In vitro blastogenesis assays revealed that purified antigens were able to induce significant proliferation of spleen cells from S. mansoni-infected mice. This protection was correlated to significant decrease in granuloma size induced by PIII. From these results, we concluded that PIII preparation contains antigens capable of mediating protective anti-parasite immunity and down-regulating granulomatous hypersensitivity to S. mansoni eggs.

Three-dimensional models of 14α-sterol demethylase (Cyp51A) from Aspergillus lentulus and Aspergillus fumigatus: an insight into differences in voriconazole interaction.

Aspergillus lentulus, an Aspergillus fumigatus sibling species, is increasingly reported in corticosteroid-treated patients. Its clinical significance is unknown, but the fact that A. lentulus shows reduced antifungal susceptibility, mainly to voriconazole, is of serious concern. Heterologous expression of cyp51A from A. fumigatus and A. lentulus was performed in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to assess differences in the interaction of Cyp51A with the azole drugs. The absence of endogenous ERG11 was efficiently complemented in S. cerevisiae by the expression of either Aspergillus cyp51A allele. There was a marked difference between azole minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the clones expressing each Aspergillus spp. cyp51A. Saccharomyces cerevisiae clones expressing A. lentulus alleles showed higher MICs to all of the azoles tested, supporting the hypothesis that the intrinsic azole resistance of A. lentulus could be associated with Cyp51A. Homology models of A. fumigatus and A. lentulus Cyp51A protein based on the crystal structure of Cyp51p from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in complex with fluconazole were almost identical owing to their mutual high sequence identity. Molecular dynamics (MD) was applied to both three-dimensional protein models to refine the homology modelling and to explore possible differences in the Cyp51A-voriconazole interaction. After 20ns of MD modelling, some critical differences were observed in the putative closed form adopted by the protein upon voriconazole binding. A closer study of the A. fumigatus and A. lentulus voriconazole putative binding site in Cyp51A suggested that some major differences in the protein's BC loop could differentially affect the lock-up of voriconazole, which in turn could correlate with their different azole susceptibility profiles.

Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

Cardiac dysfunction and impaired compensatory response to pressure overload in mice deficient in stem cell antigen-1.

Stem cell antigen-1 (Sca-1) has been used to identify cardiac stem cells in the mouse heart. To investigate the function of Sca-1 in aging and during the cardiac adaptation to stress, we used Sca-1-deficient mice. These mice developed dilated cardiomyopathy [end-diastolic left ventricular diameter at 18 wk of age: wild-type (WT) mice, 4.2 mm ± 0.3; Sca-1-knockout (Sca-1-KO) mice, 4.6 mm ± 0.1; ejection fraction: WT mice, 51.1 ± 2.7%; Sca-1-KO mice, 42.9 ± 2.7%]. Furthermore, the hearts of mice lacking Sca-1 demonstrated exacerbated susceptibility to pressure overload [ejection fraction after transaortic constriction (TAC): WT mice, 43.5 ± 3.2%; Sca-1-KO mice, 30.8% ± 4.0] and increased apoptosis, as shown by the 2.5-fold increase in TUNEL(+) cells in Sca-1-deficient hearts under stress. Sca-1 deficiency affected primarily the nonmyocyte cell fraction. Indeed, the number of Nkx2.5(+) nonmyocyte cells, which represent a population of cardiac precursor cells (CPCs), was 2-fold smaller in Sca-1 deficient neonatal hearts. In vitro, the ability of CPCs to differentiate into cardiomyocytes was not affected by Sca-1 deletion. In contrast, these cells demonstrated unrestricted differentiation into cardiomyocytes. Interestingly, proliferation of cardiac nonmyocyte cells in response to stress, as judged by BrdU incorporation, was higher in mice lacking Sca-1 (percentages of BrdU(+) cells in the heart after TAC: WT mice, 4.4 ± 2.1%; Sca-1-KO mice, 19.3 ± 4.2%). These data demonstrate the crucial role of Sca-1 in the maintenance of cardiac integrity and suggest that Sca-1 restrains spontaneous differentiation in the precursor population. The absence of Sca-1 results in uncontrolled precursor recruitment, exhaustion of the precursor pool, and cardiac dysfunction.

Multi-stage oligopoly models with nested logit demand structures: A simplifying approach

Solving multi-stage oligopoly models by backward induction can easily become a com- plex task when rms are multi-product and demands are derived from a nested logit frame- work. This paper shows that under the assumption that within-segment rm shares are equal across segments, the analytical expression for equilibrium pro ts can be substantially simpli ed. The size of the error arising when this condition does not hold perfectly is also computed. Through numerical examples, it is shown that the error is rather small in general. Therefore, using this assumption allows to gain analytical tractability in a class of models that has been used to approach relevant policy questions, such as for example rm entry in an industry or the relation between competition and location. The simplifying approach proposed in this paper is aimed at helping improving these type of models for reaching more accurate recommendations.

Mycobacteriosis in the compromised host

The studies of rare genetic defects, the preliminary results of population-based studies, being validated by the experimental immunocompromised animal models and the current observations accumulated in immunocompromised patients with mycobacterial diseases provide us with insights into the importance of the macrophage activation pathway in controlling human infection with pathogenic and non pathogenic intracellular multiplying mycobacteria. Initial cytokine production by infected macrophages and/or dendritic cells could be crucial in the overall regulation of self cure, acquired protection or immunopathological sequelae expressing the disease. Knowledge of molecular and genetic cross-talks between phagocytic and specialized antigen presenting cells and different mycobacterial products associated with persistence or replication of the intracellular bacteria, could provide further informations on the global immune regulation of the early host responses to infection and the following events. It seems likely that the development of mycobacterial infections in humans will turn out to be as much dependent on the genetic make up of the host as or the virulence of the bacteria.