Interleukin-1 beta Serum Levels is Increased in Antidepressant-Free Elderly Depressed Patients

Objective: To assess the serum levels of interleukin 1 beta (IL-1 beta) in elderly depressed patients in comparison with nondepressed healthy elderly subjects. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Tertiary memory clinic. Participants: Twenty-three antidepressant-free elderly depressed patients and 44 nondepressed healthy elderly comparison group were enrolled to this study. Measurement: Serum IL-1 beta levels were determined with highly sensitive colorimetric sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Severity of the depressive episode was determined by scores on the Hamilton Depression Scale-21 item and cognitive performance by the scores on the Cambridge Cognition Examination, Mini Mental State Examination clock drawing test, and verbal fluency. Results: IL-1 beta serum levels were increased in elderly patients versus nondepressed elderly (t = 2.21, df = 65, p = 0.04). After categorizing elderly depressed subjects into late onset (LOD) versus early onset (EOD), patients with EOD had the highest IL-1 beta levels, when compared with nondepressed elderly patients and patients with LOD in analysis of variance (F = 4.9, df = 2, 64, p < 0.01). Conclusions: Late-life depression is associated with higher IL-1 beta levels suggesting that increased proinflammatory state may play a role in the physiopathology of depression in the elderly. The authors further show that this might be more prominent in those patients with EOD geriatric depression. (Am J Geriatr Psychiatry 2010; 18: 172-176)

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the Current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

FOR DEBATE A hypothesis for the 2007 dengue outbreak in Singapore

A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model`s simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model`s simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.