980 resultados para Bivariate Exponential
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The main objective of this thesis was togenerate better filtration technologies for effective production of pure starchproducts, and thereby the optimisation of filtration sequences using created models, as well as the synthesis of the theories of different filtration stages, which were suitable for starches. At first, the structure and the characteristics of the different starch grades are introduced and each starch grade is shown to have special characteristics. These are taken as the basis of the understanding of the differences in the behaviour of the different native starch grades and their modifications in pressure filtration. Next, the pressure filtration process is divided into stages, which are filtration, cake washing, compression dewatering and displacement dewatering. Each stage is considered individually in their own chapters. The order of the different suitable combinations of the process stages are studied, as well as the proper durations and pressures of the stages. The principles of the theory of each stageare reviewed, the methods for monitoring the progress of each stage are presented, and finally, the modelling of them is introduced. The experimental results obtained from the different stages of starch filtration tests are given and the suitability of the theories and models to the starch filtration are shown. Finally, the theories and the models are gathered together and shown, that the analysis of the whole starch pressure filtration process can be performed with the software developed.
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Background: Gender-related differences are seen in multiple aspects of both health and illness. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a pathology in which diagnostic, treatment and prognostic differences are seen between sexes, especially in the acute phase and in the hospital setting. The objective of the present study is to analyze whether there are differences between men and women when examining associated cardiovascular risk factors and secondary pharmacological prevention in the primary care setting. Methods: Retrospective descriptive observational study from January to December of 2006, including 1907 patients diagnosed with ischemic heart disease in the city of Lleida, Spain. The clinical data were obtained from computerized medical records and pharmaceutical records of medications dispensed in pharmacies with official prescriptions. Data was analyzed using bivariate descriptive statistical analysis as well as logistic regression. Results: There were no gender-related differences in screening percentages for arterial hypertension, diabetes, obesity, dyslipemia, and smoking. A greater percentage of women were hypertensive, obese and diabetic compared to men. However, men showed a tendency to achieve control targets more easily than women, with no statistically significant differences. In both sexes cardiovascular risk factors control was inadequate, between 10 and 50%. For secondary pharmaceutical prevention, the percentages of prescriptions were greater in men for anticoagulants, beta-blockers, lipid-lowering agents and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers, with age group variations up to 10%. When adjusting by age and specific diagnoses, differences were maintained for anticoagulants and lipid-lowering agents. Conclusion: Screening of cardiovascular risk factors was similar in men and women with IHD. Although a greater percentage of women were hypertensive, diabetic or obese, their management of risk factors tended to be worse than men. Overall, a poor control of cardiovascular risk factors was noted. Taken as a whole, more men were prescribed secondary prevention drugs, with differences varying by age group and IHD diagnosis.
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The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.
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BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the biggest cause of deaths in young children in developing countries, but early diagnosis and intervention can effectively reduce mortality. We aimed to assess the diagnostic value of clinical signs and symptoms to identify radiological pneumonia in children younger than 5 years and to review the accuracy of WHO criteria for diagnosis of clinical pneumonia. METHODS: We searched Medline (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and reference lists of relevant studies, without date restrictions, to identify articles assessing clinical predictors of radiological pneumonia in children. Selection was based on: design (diagnostic accuracy studies), target disease (pneumonia), participants (children aged <5 years), setting (ambulatory or hospital care), index test (clinical features), and reference standard (chest radiography). Quality assessment was based on the 2011 Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) criteria. For each index test, we calculated sensitivity and specificity and, when the tests were assessed in four or more studies, calculated pooled estimates with use of bivariate model and hierarchical summary receiver operation characteristics plots for meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We included 18 articles in our analysis. WHO-approved signs age-related fast breathing (six studies; pooled sensitivity 0·62, 95% CI 0·26-0·89; specificity 0·59, 0·29-0·84) and lower chest wall indrawing (four studies; 0·48, 0·16-0·82; 0·72, 0·47-0·89) showed poor diagnostic performance in the meta-analysis. Features with the highest pooled positive likelihood ratios were respiratory rate higher than 50 breaths per min (1·90, 1·45-2·48), grunting (1·78, 1·10-2·88), chest indrawing (1·76, 0·86-3·58), and nasal flaring (1·75, 1·20-2·56). Features with the lowest pooled negative likelihood ratio were cough (0·30, 0·09-0·96), history of fever (0·53, 0·41-0·69), and respiratory rate higher than 40 breaths per min (0·43, 0·23-0·83). INTERPRETATION: Not one clinical feature was sufficient to diagnose pneumonia definitively. Combination of clinical features in a decision tree might improve diagnostic performance, but the addition of new point-of-care tests for diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia would help to attain an acceptable level of accuracy. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation.
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AIM: This study examined whether problematic Internet use was associated with substance use among young adolescents and assessed whether this association accounted for the use of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other drugs. METHODS: Using the Internet Addiction Test, we divided a representative sample of 3067 adolescents in Switzerland (mean age 14 years) into regular and problematic Internet users. We performed a bivariate analysis and two logistic regression models, to analyse substances separately and simultaneously, and developed a log-linear model to define the associations between significant variables. RESULTS: Problematic Internet users were more likely to be female, to use substances, to come from nonintact families, to report poor emotional well-being and to be below average students. The first model showed significant associations between problematic users and each substance, with adjusted odds ratios of 2.05 for tobacco, 1.72 for alcohol, 1.94 for cannabis and 2.73 for other drugs. Only smoking remained significant in the second model, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.71. CONCLUSION: Problematic Internet use is associated with other risky behaviours and may be an important early predictor of adolescent substance use. Therefore, it should be included in the psychosocial screening of adolescents.
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BACKGROUND: Years since onset of sexual intercourse (YSSI) is a rarely used variable when studying adolescents- sexual outcomes. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of YSSI on the adverse sexual outcomes of early sexual initiators. METHODS: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health database, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey including 7429 adolescents in post mandatory school aged 16-20 years. Only adolescents reporting sexual intercourse (SI) were included (N=4388; 45% females) and divided by age of onset of SI (early initiators, age<16: N=1469, 44% females; and late initiators, age≥16: N=2919, 46% females). Analyses were done separately by gender. Groups were compared for personal characteristics at the bivariate level. We analyzed three sexual outcomes (≥4 sexual partners, pregnancy and non-use of condom at last SI) controlling for all significant personal variables with two logistic regressions first using age, then YSSI as one of the confounding variables. Results are given as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) using lSI as the reference category. RESULTS: After adjusting for YSSI instead of age, negative sexual outcomes among early initiators were no longer significant, except for multiple sexual partners among females, although at a much lower level. Early initiators were less likely to report non-use of condom at last SI when adjusting for YSSI (females: aOR=0.59 [0.44-0.79]; p<0.001; males aOR=0.71 [0.50-1.00]; p=0.053). CONCLUSION: YSSI is an important explanatory variable when studying adolescents- sexuality and needs to be included in future research on adolescents- sexual health.
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1) Introduction: pour les jeunes souffrant de maladie chronique, l'objectif de la transition vers les soins pour adultes est d'optimiser leur fonctionnement et leur potentiel. Le but de cette étude pilote était d'évaluer si les jeunes adultes souffrant de maladie chronique jugeaient que le passage vers les soins adultes était plus facile lorsque la question de la transition avait été discutée au préalable avec leur pédiatre. 2) Matériel et méthodes: deux groupes de jeunes adultes atteints de maladie chronique ont été identifiés selon l'existence (n = 70) ou non (n = 22) d'une discussion préalable avec leur pédiatre à propos de la transition vers une prise en charge pour adultes. Ces deux groupes ont été comparés pour des variables démographiques et de santé. Les variables significatives en analyse bivariée ont été incluses dans une régression logistique descendante pas à pas. 3) Résultats: les jeunes adultes qui avaient discuté de la transition étaient significativement plus nombreux à se sentir prêts (72,9 % vs 45,5 %) et accompagnés (58,6 % vs 27,3 %) pour le transfert, à avoir consulté leur spécialiste pour adultes (60 % vs 31,8 %) et à voir leur médecin sans la présence de leurs parents (70 % vs 40,9 %). En analyse multivariée, seuls, le fait de se sentir accompagné (odds ratio ajustée [ORa] : 3,56) et celui d'avoir consulté leur spécialiste pour adultes (ORa : 4,14) étaient significatifs. 4) Conclusions: la préparation des jeunes souffrant de maladie chronique au transfert vers les soins pour adultes semble bénéfique. Cependant, le transfert lui-même n'est qu'une petite partie du concept beaucoup plus large de la transition vers la vie adulte. Une transition bien planifiée doit permettre à ces jeunes adultes d'atteindre tout leur potentiel. INTRODUCTION: The goal of transition in healthcare for young people with chronic illnesses is to maximize their functioning and potential. The purpose of this pilot study was to assess whether young adults with chronic illnesses found that the transition to adult care was easier when the transition was discussed in advance with their pediatric specialist. METHODS: Two groups were created according to whether patients had discussed (n=70) or not (n=22) the transition with their pediatric specialist and compared regarding demographic and health-related variables. All the significant variables at the bivariate level were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS: Youth who had discussed the transition were significantly more likely to feel ready for the transfer (72.9% vs 45.5%) and accompanied (58.6% vs 27. %) during transfer, to have consulted their specialist for adults (60.0% vs 31.8%), and seen their doctor without the presence of their parents (70.0% vs 40.9%). At the multivariate level, only feeling accompanied during transfer (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 3.56) and having consulted their specialist for adults (aOR: 4.14) remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Preparing chronically ill youths for transfer to adult care appears to be beneficial for them. However, transfer is only a small part of the much broader transition that is preparation for adult life. A well-planned transition should allow these young people to reach their full potential.
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Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.
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Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin kysynnän ennustamista Vaasan & Vaasan Oy:n tuotteille. Ensin työssä perehdyttiin ennustamiseen ja sen tarjoamiin mahdollisuuksiin yrityksessä. Erityisesti kysynnän ennustamisesta saatavat hyödyt käytiin läpi. Kysynnän ennustamisesta haettiin ratkaisua erityisesti ongelmiin työvuorosuunnittelussa.Työssä perehdyttiin ennustemenetelmiin liittyvään kirjallisuuteen, jonka oppien perusteella tehtiin koe-ennustuksia yrityksen kysynnän historiadatan avulla. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin kuudelle eri Turun leipomon koe-tuotteelle. Ennustettavana aikavälinä oli kahden viikon päiväkohtainen kysyntä. Tämän aikavälin erityisesti peruskysynnälle etsittiin ennustetarkkuudeltaan parasta kvantitatiivista ennustemenetelmää. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin liukuvilla keskiarvoilla, klassisella aikasarja-analyysillä, eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä, Holtin lineaarisella eksponenttitasoituksen menetelmällä, Wintersin kausittaisella eksponentiaalisella tasoituksella, autoregressiivisillä malleilla, Box-Jenkinsin menetelmällä ja regressioanalyysillä. Myös neuroverkon opettamista historiadatalla ja käyttämistä ongelman ratkaisun apuna kokeiltiin.Koe-ennustuksien tulosten perusteella ennustemenetelmien toimintaa analysoitiin jatkokehitystä varten. Ennustetarkkuuden lisäksi arvioitiin mallin yksinkertaisuutta, helppokäyttöisyyttä ja sopivuutta yrityksen monien tuotteiden ennustamiseen. Myös kausivaihteluihin, trendeihin ja erikoispäiviin kiinnitettiin huomiota. Ennustetarkkuuden huomattiin parantuvan selvästi peruskysyntää ennustettaessa, jos ensin historiadata esikäsittelemällä puhdistettiin erikoispäivistä ja –viikoista.
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Le cancer de la vessie est le deuxième cancer urologique le plus fréquent dans le monde. La plupart des patients (75%) sont initialement diagnostiqués avec un cancer non musculo- invasif. Après résection trans-urétrale, ie traitement standard pour ce type de lésion chez les patients présentant un risque important de récidive/progression consiste en une série d'instillations intravésicales du Bacille de Calmette-Guerin (i.e. le vaccin BCG). Cependant cette "BCG thérapie" est associée à des effets secondaires non négligeables et s'avère inefficace dans 30% des cas, des limitations donc importantes qui soulignent la nécessité de développer des stratégies thérapeutiques alternatives. L'utilisation d'antigènes associés aux tumeurs (TAA) comme vaccin, combinée à une application locale d'immunostimulants sur le site tumoral, est une approche prometteuse en vue de maximiser les réponses immunitaires anti-tumorales localement. Nous montrons que la bactérie vivante atténuée Ty21a, issue du vaccin Vivotif® contre la fièvre typhoïde, peut être utilisée comme immunostimulant intravésical (IVES), mais ce uniquement dans le cas où la bactérie est en phase exponentielle de croissance (Vivotif exp). En effet, l'instillation IVES de Vivotif exp à la suite d'une vaccination par un TAA, un antigène mineur d'histocompatibilité mâle H-Y (Uty), permet d'augmenter de 15 fois le nombre de cellules T CD8 totales et spécifiques de l'antigène dans la vessie. Le recrutement des cellules T est TLR4-dépendent, ce qui suggère un rôle des lipopolysaccharides du Vivotif exp. Par ailleurs, en comparaison avec le contenu bactérien de la capsule de Vivotif, les bactéries en phase exponentielle de croissance permettent également une augmentation préférentielle des chemokines C5/C5a, CXCL1, CXCL2 et CXCL5 dans la vessie, mais pas du nombre de cellules T exprimant les récepteurs apparentés (C5aR et CXCR2). De plus, combiner la vaccination Uty avec le Vivotif exp en IVES permet d'améliorer la survie des souris présentant une tumeur orthotopique de la vessie exprimant l'antigène Uty (lignée tumorale murine MB49). Puisque pour certains cancers, aucun TAA - du moins exprimé à tous les stades tumoraux - n'est identifié, il est nécessaire de développer d'autres approches non vaccinales. Dans une deuxième partie de ce travail de thèse, nous avons donc investigué deux stratégies permettant d'induire une destruction des cellules tumorales, la thérapie génique par gène de suicide, d'une part, et la thérapie photodynamique dans le proche infrarouge (NIR-PDT), d'autre part. Pour appliquer ces thérapies, nous avons utilisé comme vecteur sûr et non toxique une forme non réplicative du virus du « Human Papillomavirus » (HPV) capable de "pseudo-infecter" préférentiellement les souris présentant des tumeurs vésicales (MB49). L'utilisation de pseudovirions (PsV) HPV portant comme gène suicide la thymidine kinase, une enzyme du virus de l'herpès simplex, suivi d'un traitement par la prodrogue Ganciclovir, permet de tuer 90% des cellules MB49 in-vitro ainsi que de ralentir significativement le développement des tumeurs vésicales in-vivo. Par ailleurs, l'emploi de particules pseudo- virales HPV couplées à la phtalocyanine IR700, un pigment photosensible présentant un pouvoir cytotoxique une fois activé, permet de tuer, après application d'une lumière dans le proche infrarouge, quasi 100% des cellules MB49 in-vitro et, plus important, de régresser des tumeurs in-vivo. De façon générale, ce travail de thèse présente des approches thérapeutiques innovantes et prometteuses pour le traitement des patients avec un cancer non musculo-invasif de la vessie. -- Bladder cancer is the second most common urological malignancy in the world. At initial diagnosis, non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) accounts for 75% of bladder cancer. The standard of care of NMIBC consists of intravesical (IVES) treatments with Bacillus- Calmette-Guerin (BCG) following transurethral resections of the lesions. However, repeated BCG treatments are associated with significant side effects and treatment failure may occur in 30% of the cases, underlying the necessity of alternative therapeutic strategies. The use of tumor-associated antigens (TAA) as vaccines followed by the local application of immunostimulants where the tumor resides is a promising approach to increase anti-tumor immune responses locally. We show that live attenuated Ty21a bacteria used from the vivotif® vaccine against typhoid fever can efficiently be used as IVES immunostimulant, only if bacteria are grown to exponential phase (Vivotif exp). In this condition, IVES immunostimulation after TAA vaccination with a minor histocompatibility male antigen HY (Uty) resulted in more than 15-fold increase of both vaccine-specific and total CD8-T cells in the bladder. T cell recruitment was mediated by TLR-4 suggesting that it was mainly mediated by lipopolysaccharides of Vivotif exp. In addition, these bacteria, as compared to the bacterial content of the vivotif capsule preferentially increased C5/C5a, CXCL1, CXCL2 and CXCL5 chemokines, but not the numbers of T cells expressing the cognate receptors (C5aR and CXCR2). Combination of IVES Vivotif exp with Uty vaccination improved survival of mice with pre-established orthotopic Uty-expressing MB49 murine bladder tumors, as compared to vaccination alone. As known TAA are not identified in all cancers, or not expressed in all stages of the tumor, we further investigated two potent approaches able of initiating tumor-cell destruction, suicide-gene therapy and near-infrared (NIR) photodynamic therapy (PDT). Towards a safe and non-toxic application of these therapies, we used Human Papillomavirus (HPV) replication-defective vectors that were able to preferentially pseudo-infect MB49-tumor bearing mice. HPV pseudovirions (PsV) carrying the Herpex-Simplex virus thymidine kinase suicide-gene followed by treatment with the prodrug Ganciclovir resulted in 90% of MB49 cell-death in-vitro and was able to significantly reduce bladder tumor growth in-vivo. Furthermore, HPV virus-like particles coupled to a NIR phtalocyanine dye, IR700 in combination with specific NIR light led to almost 100% of MB49 cell-death in-vitro and more interestingly, to bladder tumors shrinkage in-vivo. Overall, in this thesis, we offer promising therapeutic approaches for application in NMIBC patients.
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We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.
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BACKGROUND: Lack of donor organs remains a major obstacle in organ transplantation. Our aim was to evaluate (1) the association between engaging in high-risk recreational activities and attitudes toward organ donation and (2) the degree of reciprocity between organ acceptance and donation willingness in young men. METHODS: A 17-item, close-ended survey was offered to male conscripts ages 18 to 26 years in all Swiss military conscription centers. Predictors of organ donation attitudes were assessed in bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regression. Reciprocity of the intentions to accept and to donate organs was assessed by means of donor card status. RESULTS: In 1559 responses analyzed, neither motorcycling nor practicing extreme sports reached significant association with donor card holder status. Family communication about organ donation, student, or academic profession and living in a Latin linguistic region were predictors of positive organ donation attitudes, whereas residence in a German-speaking region and practicing any religion predicted reluctance. Significantly more respondents were willing to accept than to donate organs, especially among those without family communication concerning organ donation. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, it was shown that high-risk recreational activities do not influence organ donation attitudes. Second, a considerable discrepancy in organ donation reciprocity was identified. We propose that increasing this reciprocity could eventually increase organ donation rates.
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AIMS: Published incidences of acute mountain sickness (AMS) vary widely. Reasons for this variation, and predictive factors of AMS, are not well understood. We aimed to identify predictive factors that are associated with the occurrence of AMS, and to test the hypothesis that study design is an independent predictive factor of AMS incidence. We did a systematic search (Medline, bibliographies) for relevant articles in English or French, up to April 28, 2013. Studies of any design reporting on AMS incidence in humans without prophylaxis were selected. Data on incidence and potential predictive factors were extracted by two reviewers and crosschecked by four reviewers. Associations between predictive factors and AMS incidence were sought through bivariate and multivariate analyses for different study designs separately. Association between AMS incidence and study design was assessed using multiple linear regression. RESULTS: We extracted data from 53,603 subjects from 34 randomized controlled trials, 44 cohort studies, and 33 cross-sectional studies. In randomized trials, the median of AMS incidences without prophylaxis was 60% (range, 16%-100%); mode of ascent and population were significantly associated with AMS incidence. In cohort studies, the median of AMS incidences was 51% (0%-100%); geographical location was significantly associated with AMS incidence. In cross-sectional studies, the median of AMS incidences was 32% (0%-68%); mode of ascent and maximum altitude were significantly associated with AMS incidence. In a multivariate analysis, study design (p=0.012), mode of ascent (p=0.003), maximum altitude (p<0.001), population (p=0.002), and geographical location (p<0.001) were significantly associated with AMS incidence. Age, sex, speed of ascent, duration of exposure, or history of AMS were inconsistently reported and therefore not further analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: Reported incidences and identifiable predictive factors of AMS depend on study design.
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We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.