A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Two techniques to improve the precision of a demand-driven null-dereference verification approach

The problem addressed in this paper is sound, scalable, demand-driven null-dereference verification for Java programs. Our approach consists conceptually of a base analysis, plus two major extensions for enhanced precision. The base analysis is a dataflow analysis wherein we propagate formulas in the backward direction from a given dereference, and compute a necessary condition at the entry of the program for the dereference to be potentially unsafe. The extensions are motivated by the presence of certain ``difficult'' constructs in real programs, e.g., virtual calls with too many candidate targets, and library method calls, which happen to need excessive analysis time to be analyzed fully. The base analysis is hence configured to skip such a difficult construct when it is encountered by dropping all information that has been tracked so far that could potentially be affected by the construct. Our extensions are essentially more precise ways to account for the effect of these constructs on information that is being tracked, without requiring full analysis of these constructs. The first extension is a novel scheme to transmit formulas along certain kinds of def-use edges, while the second extension is based on using manually constructed backward-direction summary functions of library methods. We have implemented our approach, and applied it on a set of real-life benchmarks. The base analysis is on average able to declare about 84% of dereferences in each benchmark as safe, while the two extensions push this number up to 91%. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian parameter identification in dynamic state space models using modified measurement equations

When Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are used in problems of system parameter identification, one would face computational difficulties in dealing with large amount of measurement data and (or) low levels of measurement noise. Such exigencies are likely to occur in problems of parameter identification in dynamical systems when amount of vibratory measurement data and number of parameters to be identified could be large. In such cases, the posterior probability density function of the system parameters tends to have regions of narrow supports and a finite length MCMC chain is unlikely to cover pertinent regions. The present study proposes strategies based on modification of measurement equations and subsequent corrections, to alleviate this difficulty. This involves artificial enhancement of measurement noise, assimilation of transformed packets of measurements, and a global iteration strategy to improve the choice of prior models. Illustrative examples cover laboratory studies on a time variant dynamical system and a bending-torsion coupled, geometrically non-linear building frame under earthquake support motions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Near-Optimal Detection Thresholds for Bayesian Spectrum Sensing Under Fading

This paper considers the problem of energy-based, Bayesian spectrum sensing in cognitive radios under various fading environments. Under the well-known central limit theorem based model for energy detection, we derive analytically tractable expressions for near-optimal detection thresholds that minimize the probability of error under lognormal, Nakagami-m, and Weibull fading. For the Suzuki fading case, a generalized gamma approximation is provided, which saves on the computation of an integral. In each case, the accuracy of the theoretical expressions as compared to the optimal thresholds are illustrated through simulations.

Error exponent analysis of energy-based Bayesian decentralized spectrum sensing under fading

This paper considers decentralized spectrum sensing, i.e., detection of occupancy of the primary users' spectrum by a set of Cognitive Radio (CR) nodes, under a Bayesian set-up. The nodes use energy detection to make their individual decisions, which are combined at a Fusion Center (FC) using the K-out-of-N fusion rule. The channel from the primary transmitter to the CR nodes is assumed to undergo fading, while that from the nodes to the FC is assumed to be error-free. In this scenario, a novel concept termed as the Error Exponent with a Confidence Level (EECL) is introduced to evaluate and compare the performance of different detection schemes. Expressions for the EECL under general fading conditions are derived. As a special case, it is shown that the conventional error exponent both at individual sensors, and at the FC is zero. Further, closed-form lower bounds on the EECL are derived under Rayleigh fading and lognormal shadowing. As an example application, it answers the question of whether to use pilot-signal based narrowband sensing, where the signal undergoes Rayleigh fading, or to sense over the entire bandwidth of a wideband signal, where the signal undergoes lognormal shadowing. Theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A survey on compressed domain video analysis techniques

Image and video analysis requires rich features that can characterize various aspects of visual information. These rich features are typically extracted from the pixel values of the images and videos, which require huge amount of computation and seldom useful for real-time analysis. On the contrary, the compressed domain analysis offers relevant information pertaining to the visual content in the form of transform coefficients, motion vectors, quantization steps, coded block patterns with minimal computational burden. The quantum of work done in compressed domain is relatively much less compared to pixel domain. This paper aims to survey various video analysis efforts published during the last decade across the spectrum of video compression standards. In this survey, we have included only the analysis part, excluding the processing aspect of compressed domain. This analysis spans through various computer vision applications such as moving object segmentation, human action recognition, indexing, retrieval, face detection, video classification and object tracking in compressed videos.

A Perspective on Computer Assisted Assessment Techniques for Short Free-Text Answers

Computer Assisted Assessment (CAA) has been existing for several years now. While some forms of CAA do not require sophisticated text understanding (e.g., multiple choice questions), there are also student answers that consist of free text and require analysis of text in the answer. Research towards the latter till date has concentrated on two main sub-tasks: (i) grading of essays, which is done mainly by checking the style, correctness of grammar, and coherence of the essay and (ii) assessment of short free-text answers. In this paper, we present a structured view of relevant research in automated assessment techniques for short free-text answers. We review papers spanning the last 15 years of research with emphasis on recent papers. Our main objectives are two folds. First we present the survey in a structured way by segregating information on dataset, problem formulation, techniques, and evaluation measures. Second we present a discussion on some of the potential future directions in this domain which we hope would be helpful for researchers.

Comparison of Matching Pursuit Algorithm with Other Signal Processing Techniques for Computation of the Time-Frequency Power Spectrum of Brain Signals

Signals recorded from the brain often show rhythmic patterns at different frequencies, which are tightly coupled to the external stimuli as well as the internal state of the subject. In addition, these signals have very transient structures related to spiking or sudden onset of a stimulus, which have durations not exceeding tens of milliseconds. Further, brain signals are highly nonstationary because both behavioral state and external stimuli can change on a short time scale. It is therefore essential to study brain signals using techniques that can represent both rhythmic and transient components of the signal, something not always possible using standard signal processing techniques such as short time fourier transform, multitaper method, wavelet transform, or Hilbert transform. In this review, we describe a multiscale decomposition technique based on an over-complete dictionary called matching pursuit (MP), and show that it is able to capture both a sharp stimulus-onset transient and a sustained gamma rhythm in local field potential recorded from the primary visual cortex. We compare the performance of MP with other techniques and discuss its advantages and limitations. Data and codes for generating all time-frequency power spectra are provided.

Nano-hardness Techniques and Its Applications in Mechanical Property Measurements for Surface Engineering

结合纳米硬度技术测量各类薄膜和块体材料表层的纳米压痕硬度、弹性模量、断裂韧性、膜厚、微结构的弯曲变形,采用纳米划痕硬度技术测量各类薄膜和块体材料的粗糙度、临界附着力、摩擦系数、划痕横剖面.纳米硬度计是检测材料表层微米乃至几十纳米力学性能的先进仪器,可广泛应用于表面工程中的质量检测.