Field testing of arsenic in groundwater samples of Bangladesh using a test kit based on lyophilized bioreporter bacteria.

A test kit based on living, lyophilized bacterial bioreporters emitting bioluminescence as a response to arsenite and arsenate was applied during a field campaign in six villages across Bangladesh. Bioreporter field measurements of arsenic in groundwater from tube wells were in satisfying agreement with the results of spectroscopic analyses of the same samples conducted in the lab. The practicability of the bioreporter test in terms of logistics and material requirements, suitability for high sample throughput, and waste disposal was much better than that of two commercial chemical test kits that were included as references. The campaigns furthermore demonstrated large local heterogeneity of arsenic in groundwater, underscoring the use of well switching as an effective remedy to avoid high arsenic exposure.

Interleukin-10 rs1800896 and CXCR2 rs1126579 polymorphisms modulate the predisposition to septic shock

Despite major improvements in its treatment and diagnosis, sepsis is still a leading cause of death and admittance to the intensive care unit (ICU). Failure to identify patients at high risk of developing septic shock contributes to an increase in the sepsis burden and rapid molecular tests are currently the most promising avenue to aid in patient risk determination and therapeutic anticipation. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the genetic susceptibility that affects sepsis outcome in 72 sepsis patients admitted to the ICU. Seven polymorphisms were genotyped in key inflammatory response genes in sepsis, including tumour necrosis factor-α,interlelukin (IL)-1β, IL-10,IL-8, Toll-like receptor 4, CXCR1and CXCR2. The primary finding showed that patients who were homozygous for the major A allele in IL-10rs1800896 had almost five times higher chance to develop septic shock compared to heterozygotes. Similarly, selected clinical features and CXCR2rs1126579 single nucleotide polymorphisms modulated septic shock susceptibility without affecting survival. These data support the hypothesis that molecular testing has clinical usefulness to improve sepsis prognostic models. Therefore, enrichment of the ICU portfolio by including these biomarkers will aid in the early identification of sepsis patients who may develop septic shock.

Bayesian tools for zero counts in compositional data

The log-ratio methodology makes available powerful tools for analyzing compositionaldata. Nevertheless, the use of this methodology is only possible for those data setswithout null values. Consequently, in those data sets where the zeros are present, aprevious treatment becomes necessary. Last advances in the treatment of compositionalzeros have been centered especially in the zeros of structural nature and in the roundedzeros. These tools do not contemplate the particular case of count compositional datasets with null values. In this work we deal with \count zeros" and we introduce atreatment based on a mixed Bayesian-multiplicative estimation. We use the Dirichletprobability distribution as a prior and we estimate the posterior probabilities. Then weapply a multiplicative modi¯cation for the non-zero values. We present a case studywhere this new methodology is applied.Key words: count data, multiplicative replacement, composition, log-ratio analysis

Decreased well-being after job loss : testing omitted causes

Job loss is widely known to lead to a substantial decrease in workers' subjective well-being. Functionalist theories explain this fact by arguing that the fundamental needs that work fulfills are absent during unemployment. Recent evidence from longitudinal studies however contradicts this approach, showing that workers who find a new job do not fully regain their former level of well-being upon reemployment. Therefore other mechanisms must be at work. We suggest that changes in social or economic domains of workers' lives - triggered by job displacement - lead to the observed changes in well-being. Drawing on a unique data set from a survey of workers displaced by plant closure in Switzerland after the financial crisis of 2008, our analysis confirms the previous result that finding a job after displacement does not completely restore workers' pre-displacement level of well-being. The factors that best explain this outcome are changes in social domains, notably changes in workers' job - related social status and their relationships to friends. This result provides valuable insights about the long lasting scars job displacement leaves on workers' lives.

Molecular testing for fragile X: analysis of 5062 tests from 1105 fragile X families--performed in 12 clinical laboratories in Spain.

Fragile X syndrome is the most common inherited form of intellectual disability. Here we report on a study based on a collaborative registry, involving 12 Spanish centres, of molecular diagnostic tests in 1105 fragile X families comprising 5062 individuals, of whom, 1655 carried a full mutation or were mosaic, three cases had deletions, 1840 had a premutation, and 102 had intermediate alleles. Two patients with the full mutation also had Klinefelter syndrome. We have used this registry to assess the risk of expansion from parents to children. From mothers with premutation, the overall rate of allele expansion to full mutation is 52.5%, and we found that this rate is higher for male than female offspring (63.6% versus 45.6%; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in mothers with intermediate alleles (45-54 repeats), there were 10 cases of expansion to a premutation allele, and for the smallest premutation alleles (55-59 repeats), there was a 6.4% risk of expansion to a full mutation, with 56 repeats being the smallest allele that expanded to a full mutation allele in a single meiosis. Hence, in our series the risk for alleles of <59 repeats is somewhat higher than in other published series. These findings are important for genetic counselling.

Efficacy of prescribed injectable diacetylmorphine in the Andalusian trial: Bayesian analysis of responders and non-responders according to a multi domain outcome index.

BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.

Sensitivity and specificity of parallel or serial serological testing for detection of canine Leishmania infection

In Brazil, human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) caused byLeishmania infantum has undergone urbanisation since 1980, constituting a public health problem, and serological tests are tools of choice for identifying infected dogs. Until recently, the Brazilian zoonoses control program recommended enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA) as the screening and confirmatory methods, respectively, for the detection of canine infection. The purpose of this study was to estimate the accuracy of ELISA and IFA in parallel or serial combinations. The reference standard comprised the results of direct visualisation of parasites in histological sections, immunohistochemical test, or isolation of the parasite in culture. Samples from 98 cases and 1,327 noncases were included. Individually, both tests presented sensitivity of 91.8% and 90.8%, and specificity of 83.4 and 53.4%, for the ELISA and IFA, respectively. When tests were used in parallel combination, sensitivity attained 99.2%, while specificity dropped to 44.8%. When used in serial combination (ELISA followed by IFA), decreased sensitivity (83.3%) and increased specificity (92.5%) were observed. Serial testing approach improved specificity with moderate loss in sensitivity. This strategy could partially fulfill the needs of public health and dog owners for a more accurate diagnosis of CVL.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part II. Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC

In the first part of this research, three stages were stated for a program to increase the information extracted from ink evidence and maximise its usefulness to the criminal and civil justice system. These stages are (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples by high-performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) in reproducible way, when ink samples are analysed at different time, locations and by different examiners; (b) compare automatically and objectively ink samples; and (c) define and evaluate theoretical framework for the use of ink evidence in forensic context. This report focuses on the second of the three stages. Using the calibration and acquisition process described in the previous report, mathematical algorithms are proposed to automatically and objectively compare ink samples. The performances of these algorithms are systematically studied for various chemical and forensic conditions using standard performance tests commonly used in biometrics studies. The results show that different algorithms are best suited for different tasks. Finally, this report demonstrates how modern analytical and computer technology can be used in the field of ink examination and how tools developed and successfully applied in other fields of forensic science can help maximising its impact within the field of questioned documents.

Profiling of 19-norandrosterone sulfate and glucuronide in human urine: implications in athlete's drug testing.

19-Norandrosterone (19-NA) as its glucuronide derivative is the target metabolite in anti-doping testing to reveal an abuse of nandrolone or nandrolone prohormone. To provide further evidence of a doping with these steroids, the sulfoconjugate form of 19-norandrosterone in human urine might be monitored as well. In the present study, the profiling of sulfate and glucuronide derivatives of 19-norandrosterone together with 19-noretiocholanolone (19-NE) were assessed in the spot urines of 8 male subjects, collected after administration of 19-nor-4-androstenedione (100mg). An LC/MS/MS assay was employed for the direct quantification of sulfoconjugates, whereas a standard GC/MS method was applied for the assessment of glucuroconjugates in urine specimens. Although the 19-NA glucuronide derivative was always the most prominent at the excretion peak, inter-individual variability of the excretion patterns was observed for both conjugate forms of 19-NA and 19-NE. The ratio between the glucuro- and sulfoconjugate derivatives of 19-NA and 19-NE could not discriminate the endogenous versus the exogenous origin of the parent compound. However, after ingestion of 100mg 19-nor-4-androstenedione, it was observed in the urine specimens that the sulfate conjugates of 19-NA was detectable over a longer period of time with respect to the other metabolites. These findings indicate that more interest shall be given to this type of conjugation to deter a potential doping with norsteroids.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

Organisational PSM Antecedents. Do HRM Practices Matter? Testing the Mediating Role of Job Satisfaction and Organisational Commitment

The present study aims to identify organisational antecedents of public service motivation (PSM). Numerous research has been devoted to the identification of socio-demographic PSM antecedents, or to its outcomes. However, organisational antecedents are understudied thus far. In order to fill this research gap, we question whether human resources management practices, whether intrinsic or extrinsic ones, might be related to PSM. Drawing on person-environment fit theoretical assumptions, we depart from the idea that PSM may be developed or sustained by HRM practices, which might contribute to create an environment allowing public employees to fulfill their needs or personal aspirations. Based upon a survey in an important Swiss municipality (N = 859), our findings surprisingly highlight that extrinsic HRM practices are significantly related to PSM, whereas intrinsic ones are not. Furthermore, when taking into account work-related outcomes, such as job satisfaction and organisational commitment, there is evidence of full mediation effects towards extrinsic HRM practices from organisational commitment. Astonishingly, neither job satisfaction nor intrinsic HRM practices are significantly related to PSM.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.