940 resultados para Bayesian belief networks


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Plug-in electric vehicles will soon be connected to residential distribution networks in high quantities and will add to already overburdened residential feeders. However, as battery technology improves, plug-in electric vehicles will also be able to support networks as small distributed generation units by transferring the energy stored in their battery into the grid. Even though the increase in the plug-in electric vehicle connection is gradual, their connection points and charging/discharging levels are random. Therefore, such single-phase bidirectional power flows can have an adverse effect on the voltage unbalance of a three-phase distribution network. In this article, a voltage unbalance sensitivity analysis based on charging/discharging levels and the connection point of plug-in electric vehicles in a residential low-voltage distribution network is presented. Due to the many uncertainties in plug-in electric vehicle ratings and connection points and the network load, a Monte Carlo-based stochastic analysis is developed to predict voltage unbalance in the network in the presence of plug-in electric vehicles. A failure index is introduced to demonstrate the probability of non-standard voltage unbalance in the network due to plug-in electric vehicles.

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The story of prickly pear in Australia is usually told as a tale of triumphant scientific intervention into an environmental disaster. Instead, this unarticle considers it as a transnational network in order to better understand the myriad of elements that made this event so important. Through this methodology emerges the complex nature of prickly pear land that included people, places, ideas, rhetoric and objects that traveled from all over the world into settler Australia.

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The flexible design of decoupling and matching networks for coupled antennas is introduced. The network includes three parts: circuits for impedance transformation, an element for odd-mode decoupling and conventional matching networks. It is found that all three parts are determined by one parameter of the ABCD matrix of the impedance transformation circuit. Thus a large variety of circuits with different element values can be used for decoupling which relaxes the practical design constraints.

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For industrial wireless sensor networks, maintaining the routing path for a high packet delivery ratio is one of the key objectives in network operations. It is important to both provide the high data delivery rate at the sink node and guarantee a timely delivery of the data packet at the sink node. Most proactive routing protocols for sensor networks are based on simple periodic updates to distribute the routing information. A faulty link causes packet loss and retransmission at the source until periodic route update packets are issued and the link has been identified as broken. We propose a new proactive route maintenance process where periodic update is backed-up with a secondary layer of local updates repeating with shorter periods for timely discovery of broken links. Proposed route maintenance scheme improves reliability of the network by decreasing the packet loss due to delayed identification of broken links. We show by simulation that proposed mechanism behaves better than the existing popular routing protocols (AODV, AOMDV and DSDV) in terms of end-to-end delay, routing overhead, packet reception ratio.

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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

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Electric Energy Storage (EES) is considered as one of the promising options for reducing the need for costly upgrades in distribution networks in Queensland (QLD). However, It is expected, the full potential for storage for distribution upgrade deferral cannot be fully realized due to high cost of EES. On the other hand, EES used for distribution deferral application can support a variety of complementary storage applications such as energy price arbitrage, time of use (TOU) energy cost reduction, wholesale electricity market ancillary services, and transmission upgrade deferral. Aggregation of benefits of these complementary storage applications would have the potential for increasing the amount of EES that may be financially attractive to defer distribution network augmentation in QLD. In this context, this paper analyzes distribution upgrade deferral, energy price arbitrage, TOU energy cost reduction, and integrated solar PV-storage benefits of EES devices in QLD.

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Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

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Arid systems are markedly different from non-arid systems. This distinctiveness extends to arid-social networks, by which we mean social networks which are influenced by the suite of factors driving arid and semi-arid regions. Neither the process of how aridity interacts with social structure, nor what happens as a result of this interaction, is adequately understood. This paper postulates three relative characteristics which make arid-social networks distinct: that they are tightly bound, are hierarchical in structure and, hence, prone to power abuses, and contain a relatively higher proportion of weak links, making them reactive to crisis. These ideas were modified from workshop discussions during 2006. Although they are neither tested nor presented as strong beliefs, they are based on the anecdotal observations of arid-system scientists with many years of experience. This paper does not test the ideas, but rather examines them in the context of five arid-social network case studies with the aim of hypotheses building. Our cases are networks related to pastoralism, Aboriginal outstations, the ‘Far West Coast Aboriginal Enterprise Network’ and natural resources in both the Lake-Eyre basin and the Murray–Darling catchment. Our cases highlight that (1) social networks do not have clear boundaries, and that how participants perceive their network boundaries may differ from what network data imply, (2) although network structures are important determinants of system behaviour, the role of participants as individuals is still pivotal, (3) and while in certain arid cases weak links are engaged in crisis, the exact structure of all weak links in terms of how they place participants in relation to other communities is what matters.

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The producer has for many years been a central agent in recording studio sessions; the validation of this role was, in many ways, related to the producer’s physical presence in the studio, to a greater or lesser extent. However, improvements in the speed of digital networks have allowed studio sessions to be produced long-distance, in real-time, through communication programs such as Skype or REDIS. How does this impact on the role of the producer, a “nexus between the creative inspiration of the artist, the technology of the recording studio, and the commercial aspirations of the record company” (Howlett 2012)? From observations of a studio recording session in Lisbon produced through Skype from New York, this article focuses on the role of the producer in these relatively new recording contexts involving long distance media networks. Methodology involved participant observation carried out in Estúdios Namouche in Lisbon (where the session took place), as part of doctoral research. This ethnographic approach also included a number of semi-directed ethnographic interviews of the different actors in this scenario—musicians, recording engineers, composers and producers. As a theoretical framework, the research of De Zutter and Sawyer on Distributed Creativity is used, as the recording studio sets an example of “a cognitive system where […] tasks are not accomplished by separate individuals, but rather through the interactions of those individuals” (DeZutter 2009:4). Therefore, creativity often emerges as a result of this interaction.

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Single phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause voltage rise along distribution feeder and power imbalance among the phases. Usually transformer tap setting are used to mitigate voltage drop along feeders. However this can aggravate the voltage rise problem when DERs are connected. Moreover if the power generation in a phase is more than its load demand, the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. In this paper, a unified power quality compensator (UPQC) has been utilized to alleviate the voltage quality excess power circulation problems. Through analysis and simulation results, the mode of operation of UPQC is highlighted. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

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This paper presents an optimisation algorithm to maximize the loadability of single wire earth return (SWER) by minimizing the cost of batteries and regulators considering the voltage constraints and thermal limits. This algorithm, that finds the optimum location of batteries and regulators, uses hybrid discrete particle swarm optimization and mutation (DPSO + Mutation). The simulation results on realistic highly loaded SWER network show the effectiveness of using battery to improve the loadability of SWER network in a cost-effective way. In this case, while only 61% of peak load can be supplied without violating the constraints by existing network, the loadability of the network is increased to peak load by utilizing two battery sites which are located optimally. That is, in a SWER system like the studied one, each installed kVA of batteries, optimally located, supports a loadability increase as 2 kVA.

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A novel intelligent online demand management system is discussed in this chapter for peak load management in low voltage residential distribution networks based on the smart grid concept. The discussed system also regulates the network voltage, balances the power in three phases and coordinates the energy storage within the network. This method uses low cost controllers, with two-way communication interfaces, installed in costumers’ premises and at distribution transformers to manage the peak load while maximizing customer satisfaction. A multi-objective decision making process is proposed to select the load(s) to be delayed or controlled. The efficacy of the proposed control system is verified by a MATLAB-based simulation which includes detailed modeling of residential loads and the network.

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This paper presents an analytical method to analyze the effect of X to R ratio as well as impedance value of branches on observability of a network based on un-decoupled formulation of state estimation (SE) and null space of matrices. The results showed that the X to R ratio of branches had no effect on the observability of networks. In addition, it was shown that observability of some networks was affected by impedance values while some others were not affected. In addition, for branch observability analysis of radial network, a simple and quick method is developed. Illustrative examples of the network under transmission and distribution voltages demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.