948 resultados para Bayes credible intervals


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We report the results of a study of the sulphurization time effects on Cu2ZnSnS4 absorbers and thin film solar cells prepared from dc-sputtered tackedmetallic precursors. Three different time intervals, 10 min, 30min and 60 min, at maximum sulphurization temperature were considered. The effects of this parameter' change were studied both on the absorber layer properties and on the final solar cell performance. The composition, structure, morphology and thicknesses of the CZTS layers were analyzed. The electrical characterization of the absorber layer was carried out by measuring the transversal electrical resistance of the samples as a function of temperature. This study shows an increase of the conductivity activation energy from 10 meV to 54meV for increasing sulphurization time from 10min to 60min. The solar cells were built with the following structure: SLG/Mo/CZTS/CdS/i-ZnO/ZnO:Al/Ni:Al grid. Several ac response equivalent circuit models were tested to fit impedance measurements. The best results were used to extract the device series and shunt resistances and capacitances. Absorber layer's electronic properties were also determined using the Mott–Schottky method. The results show a decrease of the average acceptor doping density and built-in voltage, from 2.0 1017 cm−3 to 6.5 1015 cm−3 and from 0.71 V to 0.51 V, respectively, with increasing sulphurization time. These results also show an increase of the depletion region width from approximately 90 nm–250 nm.

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In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

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Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia/Automação e Eletrónica Industrial

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This paper describes a multi-agent brokerage platform for near real time advertising personalisation organised in three layers: user interface, agency and marketplace. The personalisation is based on the classification of viewer profiles and advertisements (ads). The goal is to provide viewers with a personalised advertising alignment during programme intervals. The enterprise interface agents upload new ads and negotiation profiles to producer agents and new user and negotiation profiles to distributor agents. The agency layer is composed of agents that represent ad producer and media distributor enterprises as well as the market regulator. The enterprise agents offer data upload and download operations as Web Services and register the specification of these interfaces at an UDDI registry for future discovery. The market agent supports the registration and deregistration of enterprise delegate agents at the marketplace. This paper addresses the marketplace layer, an agent-based negotiation platform per se, where delegates of the relevant advertising agencies and programme distributors negotiate to create the advertising alignment that best fits a viewer profile and the advertising campaigns available. The whole brokerage platform is being developed in JADE, a multi-agent development platform. The delegate agents download the negotiation profile and upload the negotiation results from / to the corresponding enterprise agent. In the meanwhile, they negotiate using the Iterated Contract Net protocol. All tools and technologies used are open source.

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Doutoramento em Motricidade Humana na especialidade de Dança

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the strengths and limitations of the Family Health Strategy from the perspective of health care professionals and the community. METHODS: Between June-August 2009, in the city of Vespasiano, Minas Gerais State, Southeastern Brazil, a questionnaire was used to evaluate the Family Health Strategy (ESF) with 77 healthcare professionals and 293 caregivers of children under five. Health care professional training, community access to health care, communication with patients and delivery of health education and pediatric care were the main points of interest in the evaluation. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals as well as to assess the statistical significance of the variables studied. RESULTS: The majority of health care professionals reported their program training was insufficient in quantity, content and method of delivery. Caregivers and professionals identified similar weaknesses (services not accessible to the community, lack of healthcare professionals, poor training for professionals) and strengths (community health worker-patient communications, provision of educational information, and pediatric care). Recommendations for improvement included: more doctors and specialists, more and better training, and scheduling improvements. Caregiver satisfaction with the ESF was found to be related to perceived benefits such as community health agent household visits (OR 5.8, 95%CI 2.8;12.1), good professional-patient relationships (OR 4.8, 95%CI 2.5;9.3), and family-focused health (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.6;10.2); and perceived problems such as lack of personnel (OR 0.3, 95%CI 0.2;0.6), difficulty with access (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1;0.4), and poor quality of care (OR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1;0.6). Overall, 62% of caregivers reported being generally satisfied with the ESF services. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the limitations and strengths of the Family Health Strategy from the healthcare professional and caregiver perspective may serve to advance primary community healthcare in Brazil.

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Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

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The evolution of the Lusitanian Basin, localized on the western Iberian margin, is closely associated with the first opening phases of the North Atlantic. It persisted from the Late Triassic to the Early Cretaceous, more precisely until the end of the Early Aptian, and its evolution was conditioned by inherited structures from the variscan basement. The part played by the faults that establish its boundaries, as regards the geometric and kinematic evolution and the organization of the sedimentary bodies, is discussed here, as well as with respect to important faults transversal to the Basin. A basin evolution model is proposed consisting of four rifting episodes which show: i) periods of symmetrical (horst and graben organization) and asymmetrical (half graben organization) geometric evolution; ii) diachronous fracturing; iii) rotation of the main extensional direction; iv) rooting in the variscan basement of the main faults of the basin (predominantly thick skinned style). The analysis and regional comparison, particularly with the Algarve Basin, of the time intervals represented by important basin scale hiatuses near to the renovation of the rifting episodes, have led to assume the occurrence of early tectonic inversions (Callovian–Oxfordian and Tithonian–Berriasian). The latter, however, had a subsequent evolution distinct from the first: there is no subsidence renovation, which is discussed here, and it is related to a magmatic event. Although the Lusitanian Basin is located on a rift margin which is considered non-volcanic, the three magmatic cycles as defined by many authors, particularly the second (approx. 130 to 110 My ?), performed a fundamental part in the mobilization of the Hettangian evaporites, resulting in the main diapiric events of the Lusitanian Basin. The manner and time in which the basin definitely ends its evolution (Early Aptian) is discussed here. Comparisons are established with other west Iberian margin basins and with Newfoundland basins. A model of oceanization of this area of the North Atlantic is also presented, consisting of two events separated by approximately 10 My, and of distinct areas separated by the Nazaré fault. The elaboration of this synthesis was based on: - information contained in previously published papers (1990 – 2000); - field-work carried out over the last years, the results of which have not yet been published; - information gathered from the reinterpretation of geological mapping and geophysical (seismic and well logs) elements, and from generic literature concerning the Mesozoic of the west iberian margin.

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The National Cancer Institute (NCI) method allows the distributions of usual intake of nutrients and foods to be estimated. This method can be used in complex surveys. However, the user must perform additional calculations, such as balanced repeated replication (BRR), in order to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals for the percentiles and mean from the distribution of usual intake. The objective is to highlight adaptations of the NCI method using data from the National Dietary Survey. The application of the NCI method was exemplified analyzing the total energy (kcal) and fruit (g) intake, comparing estimations of mean and standard deviation that were based on the complex design of the Brazilian survey with those assuming simple random sample. Although means point estimates were similar, estimates of standard error using the complex design increased by up to 60% compared to simple random sample. Thus, for valid estimates of food and energy intake for the population, all of the sampling characteristics of the surveys should be taken into account because when these characteristics are neglected, statistical analysis may produce underestimated standard errors that would compromise the results and the conclusions of the survey.

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OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence of diabetes in older people and the adopted control measures.METHODS Data regarding older diabetic individuals who participated in the Health Surveys conducted in the Municipality of Sao Paulo, SP, ISA-Capital, in 2003 and 2008, which were cross-sectional studies, were analyzed. Prevalences and confidence intervals were compared between 2003 and 2008, according to sociodemographic variables. The combination of the databases was performed when the confidence intervals overlapped. The Chi-square (level of significance of 5%) and the Pearson’s Chi-square (Rao-Scott) tests were performed. The variables without overlap between the confidence intervals were not tested.RESULTS The age of the older adults was 60-69 years. The majority were women, Caucasian, with an income of between > 0.5 and 2.5 times the minimum salary and low levels of schooling. The prevalence of diabetes was 17.6% (95%CI 14.9;20.6) in 2003 and 20.1% (95%CI 17.3;23.1) in 2008, which indicates a growth over this period (p at the limit of significance). The most prevalent measure adopted by the older adults to control diabetes was hypoglycemic agents, followed by diet. Physical activity was not frequent, despite the significant differences observed between 2003 and 2008 results. The use of public health services to control diabetes was significantly higher in older individuals with lower income and lower levels of education.CONCLUSIONS Diabetes is a complex and challenging disease for patients and the health systems. Measures that encourage health promotion practices are necessary because they presented a smaller proportion than the use of hypoglycemic agents. Public health policies should be implemented, and aimed mainly at older individuals with low income and schooling levels. These changes are essential to improve the health condition of older diabetic patients.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the trends and factors associated with the antidepressant use among older adults. METHODS This population-based study evaluated older adults in 1997 (n = 351, baseline) and the survivors at the 15th follow-up year (n = 462, in 2012) among the aging cohort of Bambuí. The prevalence of antidepressant use was estimated, and the most commonly used antidepressants each year were identified. Prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression with robust variance to investigate differences in the prevalence of use between 1997 and 2012. RESULTS The overall consumption of antidepressants (PR = 2.87, 95%CI 1.94;4.25) and of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (PR = 7.50, 95%CI 3.74;15.02) was significantly higher in 2012. However, no significant difference was observed in the use of tricyclic antidepressants between the two cohorts (PR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.49;1.62). In the 2012 cohort, antidepressant use was associated with females, increased age, increased income (≥ 4 minimum wages), self-assessment of health as reasonable, and attending ≥ 5 medical consultations in the last 12 months. CONCLUSIONS The increased consumption of antidepressants in the period due to increased use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors was consistent with results observed in international studies of different population groups and contexts. The positive correlation observed between antidepressant use and family income may be a warning of possible inequalities in access to mental health services.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the correlation between sociodemographic factors and working conditions of bus workers in a metropolitan area and violence against them.METHODS This cross-sectional study used a nonprobabilistic sample estimated according to the number of workers employed in bus companies located in three cities in the Belo Horizonte metropolitan region in 2012 (N = 17,470). Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a digital questionnaire. The factors associated with violence were analyzed in two stages using Poisson regression, according to each level. The magnitude of the association was evaluated using prevalence ratios with robust variance and a statistical significance of 5%, and 95% confidence intervals were obtained.RESULTS The study sample comprised 782 drivers and 691 fare collectors; 45.0% participants reported at least one act of violence in the workplace in the last 12 months, with passengers being predominantly responsible. The age of the bus workers was inversely associated with violence. Chronic diseases, sickness absenteeism, and working conditions were also associated with violence.CONCLUSIONS The findings on the correlation between violence and working conditions are essential for implementing prevention strategies by transportation service managers.

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A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

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In this paper an automatic classification algorithm is proposed for the diagnosis of the liver steatosis, also known as, fatty liver, from ultrasound images. The features, automatically extracted from the ultrasound images used by the classifier, are basically the ones used by the physicians in the diagnosis of the disease based on visual inspection of the ultrasound images. The main novelty of the method is the utilization of the speckle noise that corrupts the ultrasound images to compute textural features of the liver parenchyma relevant for the diagnosis. The algorithm uses the Bayesian framework to compute a noiseless image, containing anatomic and echogenic information of the liver and a second image containing only the speckle noise used to compute the textural features. The classification results, with the Bayes classifier using manually classified data as ground truth show that the automatic classifier reaches an accuracy of 95% and a 100% of sensitivity.

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OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between social capital and social capital and self-perception of health based on examining the influence of health-related behaviors as possible mediators of this relationship.METHODS A cross-sectional study was used with 1,081 subjects, which is representative of the population of individuals aged 40 years or more in a medium-sized city in Southern Brazil. The subjects who perceived their health as fine, bad or very bad were considered to have a negative self-perception of their health. The social capital indicators were: number of friends, people from whom they could borrow money from when needed; the extent of trust in community members; whether or not members of the community helped each other; community safety; and extent of participation in community activities. The behaviors were: physical activity during leisure time, fruits and vegetable consumption, tobacco use and alcohol abuse. The odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) 95% were calculated by binary logistic regression. The significance of mediation was verified using the Sobel test.RESULTS Following adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, subjects with fewer friends (OR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.08;1.80), those who perceived less frequently help from people in the neighborhood (OR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.01;1.68), who saw the violent neighborhood (OR = 1.33, 95%CI 1.01;1.74) and who had not participated in any community activity (OR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.07;1.80) had more negative self-perception of their health. Physical activity during leisure time was a significant mediator in the relationship between all social capital indicators (except for the borrowed money variable) and self-perceived health. Fruit and vegetable consumption was a significant mediator of the relationship between the extent of participation in community activities and self-perceived health. Tobacco use and alcohol abuse did not seem to have a mediating role in any relationship.CONCLUSIONS Lifestyle seems to only partially explain the relationship between social capital and self-perceived health. Among the investigated behaviors, physical activity during leisure time is what seems to have the most important role as a mediator of this relationship.