Effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification program on interpretative biases and social anxiety symptoms in a sample of Iranian socially-anxious students

This study examines the effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) program on interpretative biases and social anxiety in an Iranian sample. Thirty-six volunteers with a high score on social anxiety measures were recruited from a student population and randomly allocated into the experimental and control groups. In the experimental group, participants received 4 sessions of positive CBM for interpretative biases (CBM-I) over 2 weeks in the laboratory. Participants in the control condition completed a neutral task matched the active CBM-I intervention in format and duration but did not encourage positive disambiguation of socially ambiguous scenarios. The results indicated that after training the positive CBM-I group exhibited more positive (and less negative) interpretations of ambiguous scenarios and less social anxiety symptoms relative to the control condition at both 1 week post-test and 7 weeks follow-up. It is suggested that clinical trials are required to establish the clinical efficacy of this intervention for social anxiety.

Clinical implications of cognitive bias modification for interpretative biases in social anxiety: an integrative literature review

Cognitive theories of social anxiety indicate that negative cognitive biases play a key role in causing and maintaining social anxiety. On the basis of these cognitive theories, laboratory-based research has shown that individuals with social anxiety exhibit negative interpretation biases of ambiguous social situations. Cognitive Bias Modification for interpretative biases (CBM-I) has emerged from this basic science research to modify negative interpretative biases in social anxiety and reduce emotional vulnerability and social anxiety symptoms. However, it is not yet clear if modifying interpretation biases via CBM will have any enduring effect on social anxiety symptoms or improve social functioning. The aim of this paper is to review the relevant literature on interpretation biases in social anxiety and discuss important implications of CBM-I method for clinical practice and research.

Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite.

Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

Present bias predicts participation in payments for environmental services: evidence from a behavioral experiment in Uganda

Farmers are necessary agents in global efforts to conserve the environment now that croplands and pastures together constitute the largest terrestrial system on Earth – covering some 48% of ice-free land surface. Whereas standard economic models predict that farmers will participate in conservation programs so long as they are profitable, empirical findings from behavioral economics point to a number of normally unobservable preferences that may influence the decision-making process. This study tests, for the first time, whether heterogeneity in behavioral preferences correlates with decisions to participate in Payments for Environmental Services (PES) programs. We elicit individual trust and time preferences using economic experiments and link resulting measures to household survey data and participation decisions in a Ugandan PES program. We find that farmers who exhibit a preference for proximate gains – present-biased preferences – are 47.7% more likely to participate in the program than those who show time-consistent or future-biased preferences. This result has implications for ongoing and planned PES programs involving farmers, particularly in Africa, by highlighting a potential relationship between payment timing and participation, and further validates the use of behavioral experiments in explaining real-world decisions.

Can institutional investors bias real estate portfolio appraisals? Evidence from the market downturn

This paper investigates the extent to which institutional investors may have influenced independent real estate appraisals during the financial crisis. A conceptual model of the determinants of client influence on real estate appraisals is proposed. It is suggested that the extent of clients’ ability and willingness to bias appraisal outputs is contingent upon market and regulatory environments (ethical norms and legal and institutional frameworks), the salience of the appraisal(s) to the client, financial incentives for the appraiser to respond to client pressure, organisational culture, the level of moral reasoning of both individual clients and appraisers, client knowledge and the degree of appraisal uncertainty. The potential of client influence to bias ostensibly independent real estate appraisals is examined using the opportunity afforded by the market downturn commencing in 2007 in the UK. During the market turbulence at the end of 2007, the motivations of different types of owners to bias appraisals diverged clearly and temporarily provided a unique opportunity to assess potential appraisal bias. We use appraisal-based performance data for individual real estate assets to test whether there were significant ownership effects on performance during this period. The results support the hypothesis that real estate appraisals in this period reflected the differing needs of clients.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

The ratio bias phenomenon: fact or artifact?

The ratio bias—according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers—has recently gained momentum, with researchers especially in health economics emphasizing the policy importance of the phenomenon. Although the bias has been replicated several times, some doubts remain about its economic significance. Our two experiments show that the bias disappears once order effects are excluded, and once salient and dominant incentives are provided. This holds true for both choice and valuation tasks. Also, adding context to the decision problem does not alter this finding. No ratio bias could be found in between-subject tests either, which leads us to the conclusion that the policy relevance of the phenomenon is doubtful at best.

Associations between interpretation bias and depression in adolescents

Interpretation biases have been shown to play a role in adult depression and are a target in cognitive behavioural therapy. Adolescence is a key risk period for the development of depression and a period of rapid cognitive and emotional development but little research has investigated the relationship between interpretation biases and depression in adolescents. This study adapted a measure of interpretation bias, the Ambiguous Scenarios Test for Depression, for adolescents and evaluated its reliability and validity. A community sample of 206 young people aged 12 to 18 years completed a validated measure of depression symptoms (Mood and Feelings Questionnaires) and the adapted Ambiguous Scenarios Test. The Ambiguous Scenarios Test for Depression in Adolescents had good internal consistency and split half reliability. Depression symptoms were associated with participants’ ratings of the valence of ambiguous situations and with interpretation biases. Importantly, symptoms of depression and anxiety were independently associated with interpretation bias. This research suggests that interpretation biases can be measured in this age group, that negative interpretation biases exist in adolescents and that these are associated with depression symptoms.

Task relevance of emotional information affects anxiety-linked attention bias in visual search

Task relevance affects emotional attention in healthy individuals. Here, we investigate whether the association between anxiety and attention bias is affected by the task relevance of emotion during an attention task. Participants completed two visual search tasks. In the emotion-irrelevant task, participants were asked to indicate whether a discrepant face in a crowd of neutral, middle-aged faces was old or young. Irrelevant to the task, target faces displayed angry, happy, or neutral expressions. In the emotion-relevant task, participants were asked to indicate whether a discrepant face in a crowd of middle-aged neutral faces was happy or angry (target faces also varied in age). Trait anxiety was not associated with attention in the emotion-relevant task. However, in the emotion-irrelevant task, trait anxiety was associated with a bias for angry over happy faces. These findings demonstrate that the task relevance of emotional information affects conclusions about the presence of an anxiety-linked attention bias.

Attention bias to emotional faces varies by IQ and anxiety in Williams syndrome

Individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) often experience significant anxiety. A promising approach to anxiety intervention has emerged from cognitive studies of attention bias to threat. To investigate the utility of this intervention in WS, this study examined attention bias to happy and angry faces in individuals with WS (N=46). Results showed a significant difference in attention bias patterns as a function of IQ and anxiety. Individuals with higher IQ or higher anxiety showed a significant bias toward angry, but not happy faces, whereas individuals with lower IQ or lower anxiety showed the opposite pattern. These results suggest that attention bias interventions to modify a threat bias may be most effectively targeted to anxious individuals with WS with relatively high IQ.

Enhanced neural response to anticipation, effort and consummation of reward and aversion during Bupropion treatment

Background We have previously shown that the selective serotonergic re-uptake inhibitor, citalopram, reduces the neural response to reward and aversion in healthy volunteers. We suggest that this inhibitory effect might underlie the emotional blunting reported by patients on these medications. Bupropion is a dopaminergic and noradrenergic re-uptake inhibitor and has been suggested to have more therapeutic effects on reward-related deficits. However, how bupropion affects the neural responses to reward and aversion is unclear. Methods 17 healthy volunteers (9 female, 8 male) received 7 days of bupropion (150 mg/day) and 7 days of placebo treatment, in a double-blind crossover design. Our functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging task consisted of 3 phases; an anticipatory phase (pleasant or unpleasant cue), an effort phase (button presses to achieve a pleasant taste or to avoid an unpleasant taste) and a consummatory phase (pleasant or unpleasant tastes). Volunteers also rated wanting, pleasantness and intensity of the tastes. Results Relative to placebo, bupropion increased activity during the anticipation phase in the ventral medial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and caudate. During the effort phase, bupropion increased activity in the vmPFC, striatum, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and primary motor cortex. Bupropion also increased medial orbitofrontal cortex, amygdala and ventral striatum activity during the consummatory phase. Conclusions Our results are the first to show that bupropion can increase neural responses during the anticipation, effort and consummation of rewarding and aversive stimuli. This supports the notion that bupropion might be beneficial for depressed patients with reward-related deficits and blunted affect.

Novel synthesised flavone derivatives provide significant insight into the structural features required for enhanced anti-proliferative activity

With many cancers showing resistance to current chemotherapies, the search for novel anti-cancer agents is attracting considerable attention. Natural flavonoids have been identified as useful leads in such programmes. However, since an in-depth understanding of the structural requirements for optimum activity is generally lacking, further research is required before the full potential of flavonoids as anti-proliferative agents can be realised. Herein a broad library of 76 methoxy and hydroxy flavones, and their 4-thio analogues, was constructed and their structure-activity relationships for anti-proliferative activity against the breast cancer cell lines MCF-7 (ER+ve), MCF-7/DX (ER+ve, anthracycline resistant) and MDA-MB-231 (ER-ve) were probed. Within this library, 42 compounds were novel, and all compounds were afforded in good yields and > 95% purity. The most promising lead compounds, specifically the novel hydroxy 4-thioflavones 15f and 16f, were further evaluated for their anti-proliferative activities against a broader range of cancer cell lines by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), USA and displayed significant growth inhibition profiles (e.g Compound-15f: MCF-7 (GI50 = 0.18 μM), T-47D (GI50 = 0.03 μM) and MDA-MB-468 (GI50 = 0.47 μM) and compound-16f: MCF-7 (GI50 = 1.46 μM), T-47D (GI50 = 1.27 μM) and MDA-MB-231 (GI50 = 1.81 μM). Overall, 15f and 16f exhibited 7-46 fold greater anti-proliferative potency than the natural flavone chrysin (2d). A systematic structure-activity relationship study against the breast cancer cell lines highlighted that free hydroxyl groups and the B-ring phenyl groups were essential for enhanced anti-proliferative activities. Substitution of the 4-C=O functionality with a 4-C=S functionality, and incorporation of electron withdrawing groups at C4’ of the B-ring phenyl, also enhanced activity. Molecular docking and mechanistic studies suggest that the anti-proliferative effects of flavones 15f and 16f are mediated via ER-independent cleavage of PARP and downregulation of GSK-3β for MCF-7 and MCF-7/DX cell lines. For the MDA-MB-231 cell line, restoration of the wild-type p53 DNA binding activity of mutant p53 tumour suppressor gene was indicated.

Searching for s-Process-Enhanced Metal-Poor Stars

We present preliminary results for the estimation of barium [Ba/Fe], and strontium [Sr/Fe], abundances ratios using medium-resolution spectra (1-2 angstrom). We established a calibration between the abundance ratios and line indices for Ba and Sr, using multiple regression and artificial neural network techniques. A comparison between the two techniques (showing the advantage of the latter), as well as a discussion of future work, is presented.

Toll-Like Receptor 4 Signaling Leads to Severe Fungal Infection Associated with Enhanced Proinflammatory Immunity and Impaired Expansion of Regulatory T Cells

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) present in innate immune cells recognize pathogen molecular patterns and influence immunity to control the host-parasite interaction. The objective of this study was to characterize the involvement of TLR4 in the innate and adaptive immunity to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, the most important primary fungal pathogen of Latin America. We compared the responses of C3H/HeJ mice, which are naturally defective in TLR4 signaling, with those of C3H/HePas mice, which express functional receptors, after in vitro and in vivo infection with P. brasiliensis. Unexpectedly, we verified that TLR4-defective macrophages infected in vitro with P. brasiliensis presented decreased fungal loads associated with impaired synthesis of nitric oxide, interleukin-12 (IL-12), and macrophage chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1). After intratracheal infection with 1 million yeasts, TLR4-defective mice developed reduced fungal burdens and decreased levels of pulmonary nitric oxide, proinflammatory cytokines, and antibodies. TLR4-competent mice produced elevated levels of IL-12 and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), besides cytokines of the Th17 pattern, indicating a proinflammatory role for TLR4 signaling. The more severe infection of TLR4-normal mice resulted in increased influx of activated macrophages and T cells to the lungs and progressive control of fungal burdens but impaired expansion of regulatory T cells (Treg cells). In contrast, TLR4-defective mice were not able to clear their diminished fungal burdens totally, a defect associated with deficient activation of T-cell immunity and enhanced development of Treg cells. These divergent patterns of immunity, however, resulted in equivalent mortality rates, indicating that control of elevated fungal growth mediated by vigorous inflammatory reactions is as deleterious to the hosts as low fungal loads inefficiently controlled by limited inflammatory reactions.