Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

The Colorectal cancer disease-specific transcriptome may facilitate the discovery of more biologically and clinically relevant information

BACKGROUND: To date, there are no clinically reliable predictive markers of response to the current treatment regimens for advanced colorectal cancer. The aim of the current study was to compare and assess the power of transcriptional profiling using a generic microarray and a disease-specific transcriptome-based microarray. We also examined the biological and clinical relevance of the disease-specific transcriptome.

METHODS: DNA microarray profiling was carried out on isogenic sensitive and 5-FU-resistant HCT116 colorectal cancer cell lines using the Affymetrix HG-U133 Plus2.0 array and the Almac Diagnostics Colorectal cancer disease specific Research tool. In addition, DNA microarray profiling was also carried out on pre-treatment metastatic colorectal cancer biopsies using the colorectal cancer disease specific Research tool. The two microarray platforms were compared based on detection of probesets and biological information.

RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the disease-specific transcriptome-based microarray was able to out-perform the generic genomic-based microarray on a number of levels including detection of transcripts and pathway analysis. In addition, the disease-specific microarray contains a high percentage of antisense transcripts and further analysis demonstrated that a number of these exist in sense:antisense pairs. Comparison between cell line models and metastatic CRC patient biopsies further demonstrated that a number of the identified sense:antisense pairs were also detected in CRC patient biopsies, suggesting potential clinical relevance.

CONCLUSIONS: Analysis from our in vitro and clinical experiments has demonstrated that many transcripts exist in sense:antisense pairs including IGF2BP2, which may have a direct regulatory function in the context of colorectal cancer. While the functional relevance of the antisense transcripts has been established by many studies, their functional role is currently unclear; however, the numbers that have been detected by the disease-specific microarray would suggest that they may be important regulatory transcripts. This study has demonstrated the power of a disease-specific transcriptome-based approach and highlighted the potential novel biologically and clinically relevant information that is gained when using such a methodology.

Adaptation and Reintegration of Proprioceptive Information in Young and Older Adults' Postural Control

We investigated age-related changes in adaptation and sensory reintegration in postural control without vision. In two sessions, participants adapted their posture to sway reference and to reverse sway reference conditions, the former reducing (near eliminating) and the latter enhancing (near doubling) proprioceptive information for posture by means of support-surface rotations in proportion to body sway. Participants stood on a stable platform for 3 min (baseline) followed by 18 min of sway reference or reverse sway reference (adaptation) and finally again on a stable platform for 3 min (reintegration). Results showed that when inaccurate proprioception was introduced, anterior-posterior (AP) sway path length increased in comparable levels in the two age groups. During adaptation, young and older adults reduced postural sway at the same rate. On restoration of the stable platform in the reintegration phase, a sizeable aftereffect of increased AP path length was observed in both groups, which was greater in magnitude and duration for older adults. In line with linear feedback models of postural control, spectral analyses showed that this aftereffect differed between the two platform conditions. In the sway-referenced condition, a switch from low- to high-frequency COP sway marked the transition from reduced to normal proprioceptive information. The opposite switch was observed in the reverse sway referenced condition. Our findings illustrate age-related slowing in participants' postural control adjustments to sudden changes in environmental conditions. Over and above differences in postural control, our results implicate sensory reweighting as a specific mechanism highly sensitive to age-related decline.

ASR emotional speech: Clarifying the issues and enhancing performance

There are multiple reasons to expect that recognising the verbal content of emotional speech will be a difficult problem, and recognition rates reported in the literature are in fact low. Including information about prosody improves recognition rate for emotions simulated by actors, but its relevance to the freer patterns of spontaneous speech is unproven. This paper shows that recognition rate for spontaneous emotionally coloured speech can be improved by using a language model based on increased representation of emotional utterances. The models are derived by adapting an already existing corpus, the British National Corpus (BNC). An emotional lexicon is used to identify emotionally coloured words, and sentences containing these words are recombined with the BNC to form a corpus with a raised proportion of emotional material. Using a language model based on that technique improves recognition rate by about 20%. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

A New Gradient Descent Approach for Local Learning of Fuzzy Neural Models

The majority of reported learning methods for Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy neural models to date mainly focus on the improvement of their accuracy. However, one of the key design requirements in building an interpretable fuzzy model is that each obtained rule consequent must match well with the system local behaviour when all the rules are aggregated to produce the overall system output. This is one of the distinctive characteristics from black-box models such as neural networks. Therefore, how to find a desirable set of fuzzy partitions and, hence, to identify the corresponding consequent models which can be directly explained in terms of system behaviour presents a critical step in fuzzy neural modelling. In this paper, a new learning approach considering both nonlinear parameters in the rule premises and linear parameters in the rule consequents is proposed. Unlike the conventional two-stage optimization procedure widely practised in the field where the two sets of parameters are optimized separately, the consequent parameters are transformed into a dependent set on the premise parameters, thereby enabling the introduction of a new integrated gradient descent learning approach. A new Jacobian matrix is thus proposed and efficiently computed to achieve a more accurate approximation of the cost function by using the second-order Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method. Several other interpretability issues about the fuzzy neural model are also discussed and integrated into this new learning approach. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the resultant structure of the fuzzy neural models and the effectiveness of the proposed new algorithm, and compared with the results from some well-known methods.

A spatio-temporal 2D-models framework for human pose recovery in monocular sequences

This paper addresses the pose recovery problem of a particular articulated object: the human body. In this model-based approach, the 2D-shape is associated to the corresponding stick figure allowing the joint segmentation and pose recovery of the subject observed in the scene. The main disadvantage of 2D-models is their restriction to the viewpoint. To cope with this limitation, local spatio-temporal 2D-models corresponding to many views of the same sequences are trained, concatenated and sorted in a global framework. Temporal and spatial constraints are then considered to build the probabilistic transition matrix (PTM) that gives a frame to frame estimation of the most probable local models to use during the fitting procedure, thus limiting the feature space. This approach takes advantage of 3D information avoiding the use of a complex 3D human model. The experiments carried out on both indoor and outdoor sequences have demonstrated the ability of this approach to adequately segment pedestrians and estimate their poses independently of the direction of motion during the sequence. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How do grazers achieve their distribution? A continuum of models from random diffusion to the ideal free distribution using biased random walks

A conceptual model is described for generating distributions of grazing animals, according to their searching behavior, to investigate the mechanisms animals may use to achieve their distributions. The model simulates behaviors ranging from random diffusion, through taxis and cognitively aided navigation (i.e., using memory), to the optimization extreme of the Ideal Free Distribution. These behaviors are generated from simulation of biased diffusion that operates at multiple scales simultaneously, formalizing ideas of multiple-scale foraging behavior. It uses probabilistic bias to represent decisions, allowing multiple search goals to be combined (e.g., foraging and social goals) and the representation of suboptimal behavior. By allowing bias to arise at multiple scales within the environment, each weighted relative to the others, the model can represent different scales of simultaneous decision-making and scale-dependent behavior. The model also allows different constraints to be applied to the animal's ability (e.g., applying food-patch accessibility and information limits). Simulations show that foraging-decision randomness and spatial scale of decision bias have potentially profound effects on both animal intake rate and the distribution of resources in the environment. Spatial variograms show that foraging strategies can differentially change the spatial pattern of resource abundance in the environment to one characteristic of the foraging strategy.</

Beyond the ideal free distribution: More general models of predator distribution

The ideal free distribution model which relates the spatial distribution of mobile consumers to that of their resource is shown to be a limiting case of a more general model which we develop using simple concepts of diffusion. We show how the ideal free distribution model can be derived from a more general model and extended by incorporating simple models of social influences on predator spacing. First, a free distribution model based on patch switching rules, with a power-law interference term, which represents instantaneous biased diffusion is derived. A social bias term is then introduced to represent the effect of predator aggregation on predator fitness, separate from any effects which act through intake rate. The social bias term is expanded to express an optimum spacing for predators and example solutions of the resulting biased diffusion models are shown. The model demonstrates how an empirical interference coefficient, derived from measurements of predator and prey densities, may include factors expressing the impact of social spacing behaviour on fitness. We conclude that empirical values of log predator/log prey ratio may contain information about more than the relationship between consumer and resource densities. Unlike many previous models, the model shown here applies to conditions without continual input. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.</p>

The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.

Relevance and truthfulness in information correction and fusion

A general approach to information correction and fusion for belief functions is proposed, where not only may the information items be irrelevant, but sources may lie as well. We introduce a new correction scheme, which takes into account uncertain metaknowledge on the source’s relevance and truthfulness and that generalizes Shafer’s discounting operation. We then show how to reinterpret all connectives of Boolean logic in terms of source behavior assumptions with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We are led to generalize the unnormalized Dempster’s rule to all Boolean connectives, while taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to assumptions concerning the behavior of sources. Eventually, we further extend this approach to an even more general setting, where source behavior assumptions do not have to be restricted to relevance and truthfulness.We also establish the commutativity property between correction and fusion processes, when the behaviors of the sources are independent.

Possibilistic Information Fusion Using Maximal Coherent Subsets

When multiple sources provide information about the same unknown quantity, their fusion into a synthetic interpretable message is often a tedious problem, especially when sources are conicting. In this paper, we propose to use possibility theory and the notion of maximal coherent subsets, often used in logic-based representations, to build a fuzzy belief structure that will be instrumental both for extracting useful information about various features of the information conveyed by the sources and for compressing this information into a unique possibility distribution. Extensions and properties of the basic fusion rule are also studied.

Three-dimensional delayed-detonation models with nucleosynthesis for type ia supernovae

We present results for a suite of 14 three-dimensional, high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations of delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) explosions. This model suite comprises the first set of three-dimensional SN Ia simulations with detailed isotopic yield information. As such, it may serve as a data base for Chandrasekhar-mass delayed-detonation model nucleosynthetic yields and for deriving synthetic observables such as spectra and light curves. We employ aphysically motivated, stochastic model based on turbulent velocity fluctuations and fuel density to calculate in situ the deflagration-to-detonation transition probabilities. To obtain different strengths of the deflagration phase and thereby different degrees of pre-expansion, we have chosen a sequence of initial models with 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 40, 100, 150, 200, 300 and 1600 (two different realizations) ignition kernels in a hydrostatic white dwarf with a central density of 2.9 × 10 g cm, as well as one high central density (5.5 × 10 g cm) and one low central density (1.0 × 10 g cm) rendition of the 100 ignition kernel configuration. For each simulation, we determined detailed nucleosynthetic yields by postprocessing10 tracer particles with a 384 nuclide reaction network. All delayed-detonation models result in explosions unbinding thewhite dwarf, producing a range of 56Ni masses from 0.32 to 1.11M. As a general trend, the models predict that the stableneutron-rich iron-group isotopes are not found at the lowest velocities, but rather at intermediate velocities (~3000×10 000 km s) in a shell surrounding a Ni-rich core. The models further predict relatively low-velocity oxygen and carbon, with typical minimum velocities around 4000 and 10 000 km s, respectively. © 2012 The Authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.

Formal calibration methodology for CFD models of naturally ventilated indoor environments

Well planned natural ventilation strategies and systems in the built environments may provide healthy and comfortable indoor conditions, while contributing to a significant reduction in the energy consumed by buildings. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is particularly suited for modelling indoor conditions in naturally ventilated spaces, which are difficult to predict using other types of building simulation tools. Hence, accurate and reliable CFD models of naturally ventilated indoor spaces are necessary to support the effective design and operation of indoor environments in buildings. This paper presents a formal calibration methodology for the development of CFD models of naturally ventilated indoor environments. The methodology explains how to qualitatively and quantitatively verify and validate CFD models, including parametric analysis utilising the response surface technique to support a robust calibration process. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a naturally ventilated study zone in the library building at the National University of Ireland in Galway. The calibration process is supported by the on-site measurements performed in a normally operating building. The measurement of outdoor weather data provided boundary conditions for the CFD model, while a network of wireless sensors supplied air speeds and air temperatures inside the room for the model calibration. The concepts and techniques developed here will enhance the process of achieving reliable CFD models that represent indoor spaces and provide new and valuable information for estimating the effect of the boundary conditions on the CFD model results in indoor environments. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Time to get a move on:Overcoming bradykinetic movement in Parkinson's disease with artificial sensory guidance generated from biological motion

Paradoxical kinesia describes the motor improvement in Parkinson's disease (PD) triggered by the presence of external sensory information relevant for the movement. This phenomenon has been puzzling scientists for over 60 years, both in neurological and motor control research, with the underpinning mechanism still being the subject of fierce debate. In this paper we present novel evidence supporting the idea that the key to understanding paradoxical kinesia lies in both spatial and temporal information conveyed by the cues and the coupling between perception and action. We tested a group of 7 idiopathic PD patients in an upper limb mediolateral movement task. Movements were performed with and without a visual point light display, travelling at 3 different speeds. The dynamic information presented in the visual point light display depicted three different movement speeds of the same amplitude performed by a healthy adult. The displays were tested and validated on a group of neurologically healthy participants before being tested on the PD group. Our data show that the temporal aspects of the movement (kinematics) in PD can be moderated by the prescribed temporal information presented in a dynamic environmental cue. Patients demonstrated a significant improvement in terms of movement time and peak velocity when executing movement in accordance with the information afforded by the point light display, compared to when the movement of the same amplitude and direction was performed without the display. In all patients we observed the effect of paradoxical kinesia, with a strong relationship between the perceptual information prescribed by the biological motion display and the observed motor performance of the patients. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.