Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Age and gender differences in the social patterning of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland: the CoLaus study.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the social distribution of a comprehensive range of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a Swiss population and assessed whether socioeconomic differences varied by age and gender. METHODS: Participants were 2960 men and 3343 women aged 35-75 years from a population-based survey conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland (CoLaus study). Educational level was the indicator of socioeconomic status used in this study. Analyses were stratified by gender and age group (35-54 years; 55-75 years). RESULTS: There were large educational differences in the prevalence of CVRF such as current smoking (Δ = absolute difference in prevalence between highest and lowest educational group:15.1%/12.6% in men/women aged 35-54 years), physical inactivity (Δ = 25.3%/22.7% in men/women aged 35-54 years), overweight and obesity (Δ = 14.6%/14.8% in men/women aged 55-75 years for obesity), hypertension (Δ = 16.7%/11.4% in men/women aged 55-75 years), dyslipidemia (Δ = 2.8%/6.2% in men/women aged 35-54 years for high LDL-cholesterol) and diabetes (Δ = 6.0%/2.6% in men/women aged 55-75 years). Educational inequalities in the distribution of CVRF were larger in women than in men for alcohol consumption, obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia (p<0.05). Relative educational inequalities in CVRF tended to be greater among the younger (35-54 years) than among the older age group (55-75 years), particularly for behavioral CVRF and abdominal obesity among men and for physiological CVRF among women (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Large absolute differences in the prevalence of CVRF according to education categories were observed in this Swiss population. The socioeconomic gradient in CVRF tended to be larger in women and in younger persons.

Precise U-Pb age constraints for end-Triassic mass extinction, its correlation to volcanism and Hettangian post-extinction recovery

New precise zircon U-Pb ages are proposed for the Triassic-Jurassic (Rhetian-Hettangian) and the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries, The ages were obtained by ID-TIMS dating of single chemical-abraded zircons from volcanic ash layers within the Pucara Group, Aramachay Formation in the Utcubamba valley, northern Peru. Ash layers situated between last and first occurrences of boundary-defining ammonites yielded Pb-206/U-238 ages of 201.58 +/- 0.17/0.28 Ma (95% c.l., uncertainties without/with decay constant errors, respectively) for the Triassic-Jurassic and of 199.53 +/- 0.19/0.29 Ma for the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries. The former is established on a tuff located 1 m above the last local occurrence of the topmost Triassic genus Choristoceras, and 5 m below the Hettangian genus Psiloceras. The latter sample was obtained from a tuff collected within the Badouxia canadensis beds. Our new ages document total duration of the Hettagian of no more than c. 2 m.y., which has fundamental implications for the interpretation and significance of the ammonite recovery after the topmost Triassic extinction. The U-Pb age is about 0.8 +/- 0.5% older than Ar-40-Ar-39 dates determined on flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). Given the widely accepted hypothesis that inaccuracies in the K-40 decay constants or physical constants create a similar bias between the two dating methods, our new U-Pb zircon age determination for the T/J boundary corroborates the hypothesis that the CAMP was emplaced at the same time and may be responsible for a major climatic turnover and mass extinction. The zircon Pb-206/U-238 age for the T/J boundary is marginally older than the North Mountain Basalt (Newark Supergroup, Nova Scotia, Canada), which has been dated at 201.27 +/- 0.06 Ma [Schoene et al., 2006. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 70, 426-445]. It will be important to look for older eruptions of the CAMP and date them precisely by U-Pb techniques while addressing all sources of systematic uncertainty to further test the hypothesis of volcanic induced climate change leading to extinction. Such high-precision, high-accuracy data will be instrumental for constraining the contemporaneity of geological events at a 100 kyr level. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generation and validation of a normative, age-specific reference curve for lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) in French women.

Age-related changes in lumbar vertebral microarchitecture are evaluated, as assessed by trabecular bone score (TBS), in a cohort of 5,942 French women. The magnitude of TBS decline between 45 and 85 years of age is piecewise linear in the spine and averaged 14.5 %. TBS decline rate increases after 65 years by 50 %. INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate age-related changes in lumbar vertebral microarchitecture, as assessed by TBS, in a cohort of French women aged 45-85 years. METHODS: An all-comers cohort of French Caucasian women was selected from two clinical centers. Data obtained from these centers were cross-calibrated for TBS and bone mineral density (BMD). BMD and TBS were evaluated at L1-L4 and for all lumbar vertebrae combined using GE-Lunar Prodigy densitometer images. Weight, height, and body mass index (BMI) also were determined. To validate our all-comers cohort, the BMD normative data of our cohort and French Prodigy data were compared. RESULTS: A cohort of 5,942 French women aged 45 to 85 years was created. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry normative data obtained for BMD from this cohort were not significantly different from French prodigy normative data (p = 0.15). TBS values at L1-L4 were poorly correlated with BMI (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.14) and not correlated with height. TBS values obtained for all lumbar vertebra combined (L1, L2, L3, L4) decreased with age. The magnitude of TBS decline at L1-L4 between 45 and 85 years of age was piecewise linear in the spine and averaged 14.5 %, but this rate increased after 65 years by 50 %. Similar results were obtained for other region of interest in the lumbar spine. As opposed to BMD, TBS was not affected by spinal osteoarthrosis. CONCLUSION: The age-specific reference curve for TBS generated here could therefore be used to help clinicians to improve osteoporosis patient management and to monitor microarchitectural changes related to treatment or other diseases in routine clinical practice.

Iowa "50 States Project": A Review of the 1983 Code for Sexuality Discrimination, February 1984

The "50 States Project" is the name given to President Ronald D. Reagan;s 1981 pledge to encourage the fifty governors to initiate individual state projects to review their state Codes for unequal treatment of persons based upon sex. We believe that Iowa is the first state to complete this project. Project efforts in Iowa began in June of 1981, when the Governor Robert D. ray appointed Dr. Patricia L. Geadelmann, Chairperson on the Iowa commission on the Status of Women, as Iowa's 50 State Project representative. A 50 States planning committee was formed consisting of members from the Governor Ray's staff, the Iowa Commission on the Status of Women, and the Iowa Legislature. Various alternatives for reviewing the Iowa code and the Iowa Administrative Rules were studied and recommendations of the group were reported to Governor Terry E. Branstad prior to his inauguration.

Attention-related potentials allow for a highly accurate discrimination of mild cognitive impairment subtypes.

The three most frequent forms of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are single-domain amnestic MCI (sd-aMCI), single-domain dysexecutive MCI (sd-dMCI) and multiple-domain amnestic MCI (md-aMCI). Brain imaging differences among single domain subgroups of MCI were recently reported supporting the idea that electroencephalography (EEG) functional hallmarks can be used to differentiate these subgroups. We performed event-related potential (ERP) measures and independent component analysis in 18 sd-aMCI, 13 sd-dMCI and 35 md-aMCI cases during the successful performance of the Attentional Network Test. Sensitivity and specificity analyses of ERP for the discrimination of MCI subgroups were also made. In center-cue and spatial-cue warning stimuli, contingent negative variation (CNV) was elicited in all MCI subgroups. Two independent components (ICA1 and 2) were superimposed in the time range on the CNV. The ICA2 was strongly reduced in sd-dMCI compared to sd-aMCI and md-aMCI (4.3 vs. 7.5% and 10.9% of the CNV component). The parietal P300 ERP latency increased significantly in sd-dMCI compared to md-aMCI and sd-aMCI for both congruent and incongruent conditions. This latency for incongruent targets allowed for a highly accurate separation of sd-dMCI from both sd-aMCI and md-aMCI with correct classification rates of 90 and 81%, respectively. This EEG parameter alone performed much better than neuropsychological testing in distinguishing sd-dMCI from md-aMCI. Our data reveal qualitative changes in the composition of the neural generators of CNV in sd-dMCI. In addition, they document an increased latency of the executive P300 component that may represent a highly accurate hallmark for the discrimination of this MCI subgroup in routine clinical settings.

Clinical relevance of CD44 cell-surface expression and N-myc gene amplification in a multicentric analysis of 121 pediatric neuroblastomas.

PURPOSE: In contrast to other human tumors, a repression of the cell-surface glycoprotein CD44 on neuroblastoma is a marker of aggressiveness that usually correlates to N-myc amplification. We thus compared the prognostic value of both markers in the initial staging of 121 children treated for neuroblastoma in collaborative institutions. METHODS: Frozen samples were analyzed by a rapid and well-standardized technique of immunostaining with monoclonal antibodies (MoAbs) against epitopes in the CD44 constant region. RESULTS: In this retrospective series, CD44 was expressed on 102 specimens and strongly correlated with favorable tumor stages and histology, younger age, and normal N-myc copy numbers. In univariate analysis, CD44 expression and normal N-myc were the most powerful markers of favorable clinical outcome (P < 10(-6) and chi 2 = 65.40 and P < 10(-6) and chi 2 = 42.56, respectively), but analysis of CD44 affords significant prognostic discrimination in subgroups of patients with or without N-myc-amplified tumors. In the subgroup of stage IV neuroblastomas, CD44 was the only significant prognostic marker (P < .02, chi 2 = 5.76), whereas N-myc status was not discriminant. In multivariate analysis of five factors, ie, N-myc amplification, CD44 expression, age, tumor stage, and histology, the only independent prognostic factors of event-free survival were CD44 expression and tumor stage. CONCLUSION: The analysis of CD44 cell-surface expression must be recommended as an additional biologic marker in the initial staging of the disease.

Dire le futur au Moyen Age : du prologue au récit : du Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala

S'inscrivant dans le domaine de l'analyse des relations temporelles dans les textes, la présente étude est consacrée à la notion du futur définie en tant qu'anticipation sur les événements à venir dans le récit. Ainsi, la recherche en question se propose de mettre en lumière les différents mécanismes d'anticipation propres aux récits d'aventures au Moyen Âge. Recourant aux moyens heuristiques existants (les bases de la théorie de la réception telle qu'elle est représentée dans les travaux de Jauss, Eco et Greimas), cette thèse se concentre sur l'étude du prologue de l'oeuvre littéraire dont elle élabore une grille de lecture particulière qui tient compte de la complexité de la notion du futur envisagée aux plans grammatical (formes verbales du futur), rhétorique (la figure de la prolepse) et littéraire (les scénarios et les isotopies). La démarche de la lecture détaillée du prologue adoptée au cours de ce travail s'applique d'abord au Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes, texte fondateur du corpus, qui constitue, pour parler avec Philippe Walter, un vrai « drame du temps ». L'étude des mécanismes d'anticipation mis en place dans le prologue se prolonge ensuite dans les chapitres consacrés à Claris et Laris et au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala, deux réécritures du célèbre roman du maître champenois. Datant, respectivement, du XIIIe et du début du XVIe siècle, ces oeuvres permettent de saisir le chemin parcouru par le futur dans son aspect thématique et diachronique, ce qui est particulièrement propice au repérage des critères qui influencent l'attente du lecteur par rapport aux événements à venir au fil des siècles. Ainsi, à côté des moyens d'expression « standards » du futur (scénarios intertextuels et isotopies), la présente recherche fait apparaître d'autres facteurs qui influencent l'anticipation, notamment le procédé de la disputatio, le recours à la satire, la démarche de l'engagement indirect et l'opposition vers/prose. La seconde partie de la thèse qui traite, d'un côté, des récits consacrés à la fée Mélusine de Jean d'Arras et de Coudrette, du Livre du Cuer d'amours espris de René d'Anjou de l'autre, sert à vérifier dans quelle mesure la démarche choisie s'applique à des oeuvres du Moyen Âge tardif qui combinent des éléments empruntés à la tradition antérieure avec des éléments d'autre provenance. L'analyse de Mélusine et du Livre du Cuer conduit à ajouter deux facteurs supplémentaires qui influencent l'attente du lecteur, à savoir la démarche de l'engagement partiel et le recours au genre judiciaire. Cette étude démontre que le traitement du futur est d'un enjeu capital pour lire les textes du Moyen Âge, car il permet au lecteur, dès le prologue, de reconnaître la fin vers laquelle tend le récit et de faire par là- même une lecture enrichie, supérieure à d'autres. Telling the Future in the Middle Ages : from the Prologue to the Narrative. From Chrétien de Troyes ' Chevalier au Lion to Pierre Sala 's Chevalier au Lion. Part of the analyses of the time based relations within the texts, the present study deals with the notion of future characterized as an anticipation of the events to come in the narrative. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to bring to light the various mechanisms of anticipation peculiar to the narratives of adventures in the Middle Ages. Making the use of the existing heuristic instruments (the bases of the theory of the reception as it presents itself in the works by Jauss, Eco and Greimas), this thesis is dedicated to the study of the prologue of the work of fiction by means of a particular key for reading which takes into account the complexity of the notion of future with regard to its grammatical side (future tenses), to its rhetorical side (prolepse) and to its literary side (scenario and isotopy). First of all, the close reading of the prologue used in this work is applied to Chrétien de Troyes's Chevalier au Lion (Lion Knight), the founding text of our literary corpus, which represents, according to Philippe Walter, the real « drama of Time ». Then, the study of the mechanisms of anticipation in the prologue is carried over to the chapters devoted to Claris et Laris and to Pierre Sala's Chevalier au Lion, two romances that rewrite Chrétien de Troyes' famous work. Written, respectively, in the XIIIth and in the beginning of the XVI century, these romances enable the reader to ascertain the changes in the manner of telling the future from the thematic and diachronic point of view : this is particularly convenient to the identification of the criteria which influence the reader's expectations relative to the future events in the course of the centuries. Therefore, next to the « standard » means of expression of future (intertextual scenario and isotopy), the present study reveals other factors which influence the anticipation, in particular the method of the disputatio, the use of the satire, the approach of the indirect commitment and the verse/prose opposition. The second part of the thesis which deals with the narratives concerning the fairy Melusine written by Jean d'Arras and by Coudrette on one hand, with René d'Anjou's Livre du Cuer d'amours espris on the other hand, is used to verify to what extent the chosen approach applies to the works of fiction of the Late Middle Ages that combine the elements from the previous tradition with the elements of other origin. The analysis of Melusine's romances and of the Livre du Cuer brings us to add two new factors which influence the reader's expectations : the approach of the partial commitment, and the use of the legal discourse. This study demonstrates that the manner of telling the future is of the utmost importance to read the texts of the Middle Ages, because it enables the reader to know the end of the story from the very beginning, from the prologue, thus leading to a richer and superior reading.

A temporal hierarchy for conspecific vocalization discrimination in humans.

The ability to discriminate conspecific vocalizations is observed across species and early during development. However, its neurophysiologic mechanism remains controversial, particularly regarding whether it involves specialized processes with dedicated neural machinery. We identified spatiotemporal brain mechanisms for conspecific vocalization discrimination in humans by applying electrical neuroimaging analyses to auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) in response to acoustically and psychophysically controlled nonverbal human and animal vocalizations as well as sounds of man-made objects. AEP strength modulations in the absence of topographic modulations are suggestive of statistically indistinguishable brain networks. First, responses were significantly stronger, but topographically indistinguishable to human versus animal vocalizations starting at 169-219 ms after stimulus onset and within regions of the right superior temporal sulcus and superior temporal gyrus. This effect correlated with another AEP strength modulation occurring at 291-357 ms that was localized within the left inferior prefrontal and precentral gyri. Temporally segregated and spatially distributed stages of vocalization discrimination are thus functionally coupled and demonstrate how conventional views of functional specialization must incorporate network dynamics. Second, vocalization discrimination is not subject to facilitated processing in time, but instead lags more general categorization by approximately 100 ms, indicative of hierarchical processing during object discrimination. Third, although differences between human and animal vocalizations persisted when analyses were performed at a single-object level or extended to include additional (man-made) sound categories, at no latency were responses to human vocalizations stronger than those to all other categories. Vocalization discrimination transpires at times synchronous with that of face discrimination but is not functionally specialized.