Understanding African easterly waves: a moist singular vector approach

Moist singular vectors (MSV) have been applied successfully to predicting mid-latitude storms growing in association with latent heat of condensation. Tropical cyclone sensitivity has also been assessed. Extending this approach to more general tropical weather systems here, MSVs are evaluated for understanding and predicting African easterly waves, given the importance of moist processes in their development. First results, without initial moisture perturbations, suggest MSVs may be used advantageously. Perturbations bear similar structural and energy profiles to previous idealised non-linear studies and observations. Strong sensitivities prevail in the metrics and trajectories chosen, and benefits of initial moisture perturbations should be appraised. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system

The African Easterly Jet-Easterly Wave (AEJ-AEW) system was explored in an idealised model. Prescribed zonally symmetric surface temperature and moisture profiles determine the AEJ which becomes established through meridional contrasts in dry and moist convection.As in previous studies, a realistic AEJ developed with only dry convection. Including moist processes, increased its development rate, but reduced its speed and meridional extent. AEWs grew through barotropic-baroclinic conversions. Negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients arose in the zonally symmetric state through the intrusion of the low-PV Saharan boundary layer. Since moist processes strengthened this significantly through diabatically generated PV in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moist AEWs were three times stronger. Larger barotropic conversions and faster AEJ development increased the moist wave growth-rate. Jet-level and northerly low-level amplitudes grew, but in the moist case the low-level amplitudes weakened as the AEW interacted with convection, consistent with their absence from observations during the peak monsoon. Striking dependencies between the AEJ, AEW and rainfall existed. Two time-scales governed their evolution, depending on the transfer coefficients: (1) the AEJ's replenishment rate influenced by heat fluxes, and (2) the wave growth-rate, by damping, and the slower jet development rate.Moist AEWs were characterized by intermittent growth/decay, with growth preceded by increased mean rainfall and later, weakening AEJs. These dependencies established an internal 8-10-day variability, consistent with intra-seasonal observations of 9-day rainy sequences. This internal variability offers an alternative explanation to the previously proposed external forcing and a new view of the moist AEW life cycle. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Multiple phases of North African humidity recorded in lacustrine sediments from the Fazzan Basin, Libyan Sahara

The Fazzan Basin of south-west Libya is at present arid with less than 20 mm of rainfall per annum. However, regionally extensive limestones, lacustrine sands and coquina (fossiliferous carbonate rock) deposits show that the Fazzan Basin previously contained a large palaeolake, indicating that the climate in the past was more humid. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating techniques have been applied to key lacustrine deposits within the basin in an attempt to provide an internally consistent chronology for this humidity record. Results indicate that palaeolake sediments within the Fazzan Basin record a very long history of palacohydrological change, ranging from present day and conditions to humidity capable of sustaining a lake with an approximate area of 76,250 km(2). The existence of humid periods in mid oxygen isotope stage 5 and the early Holocene is confirmed. An older lacustrine event, tentatively correlated to oxygen isotope stage 11, is also recognized. In addition, evidence is presented for at least two humid phases beyond the age range over which the conventional OSL dating technique is applicable. This study demonstrates that OSL dating of palaeolake sediments within the Fazzan Basin offers the potential to provide a detailed record of North African humidity spanning several glacial-interglacial cycles. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic impact of genetically modified cotton on South African smallholders: Yield, profit and health effects

Results of a large-scale survey of resource-poor smallholder cotton farmers in South Africa over three years conclusively show that adopters of Bt cotton have benefited in terms of higher yields, lower pesticide use, less labour for pesticide application and substantially higher gross margins per hectare. These benefits were clearly related to the technology, and not to preferential adoption by farmers who were already highly efficient. The smallest producers are shown to have benefited from adoption of the Bt variety as much as, if not more than, larger producers. Moreover, evidence from hospital records suggests a link between declining pesticide poisonings and adoption of the Bt variety.

Response of organically managed grassland to available phosphorus and potassium in the soil and supplementary fertilization: field trials using grass-clover leys cut for silage

Effective use and recycling of manures together with occasional and judicious use of supplementary fertilizing materials forms the basis for management of phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) within organic farming systems. Replicated field trials were established at three sites across the UK to compare the supply of P and K to grass-clover swards cut for silage from a range of fertilizing materials, and to assess the usefulness of routine soil tests for P and K in organic farming systems. None of the fertilizing materials (farmyard manure, rock phosphate, Kali vinasse, volcanic tuff) significantly increased silage yields, nor was P offtake increased. However, farmyard manure and Kali vinasse proved effective sources of K to grass and clover in the short to medium term. Available P (measured as Olsen-P) showed no clear relationship with crop P offtake in these trials. In contrast, available K (measured by ammonium nitrate extraction) proved a useful measurement to predict K availability to crops and support K management decisions.

Putting the pieces back together again: an illustration of the problem of interpreting development indicators using an African case study

Indicators are commonly recommended as tools for assessing the attainment of development, and the current vogue is for aggregating a number of indicators together into a single index. It is claimed that such indices of development help facilitate maximum impact in policy terms by appealing to those who may not necessarily have technical expertise in data collection, analysis and interpretation. In order to help counter criticisms of over-simplification, those advocating such indices also suggest that the raw data be provided so as to allow disaggregation into component parts and hence facilitate a more subtle interpretation if a reader so desires. This paper examines the problems involved with interpreting indices of development by focusing on the United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) published each year in the Human Development Reports (HDRs). The HDI was intended to provide an alternative to the more economic based indices, such as GDP, commonly used within neo-liberal development agendas. The paper explores the use of the HDI as a gauge of human development by making comparisons between two major political and economic communities in Africa (ECOWAS and SADC). While the HDI did help highlight important changes in human development as expressed by the HDI over 10 years, it is concluded that the HDI and its components are difficult to interpret as methodologies have changed significantly and the 'averaging' nature of the HDI could hide information unless care is taken. The paper discusses the applicability of alternative models to the HDI such as the more neo-populist centred methods commonly advocated for indicators of sustainable development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.

Intake, growth and meat quality of steers given diets based on varying proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Simmental × Holstein-Friesian steers were offered four forage diets. These comprised grass silage (G); proportionately 0·67 grass silage, proportionately 0·33 maize silage (GGM); 0·33 grass silage, 0·67 maize silage ( MMG); maize silage ( M) from 424 (s.d. = 11·5) kg to slaughter at a minimum weight of 560 kg. Forages were mixed and offered ad libitum. Steers were offered 2 kg of a concentrate daily, the concentrate being formulated such that all steers had similar crude protein intakes across dietary treatments. A sample of steers was slaughtered at the beginning of the experimental period to allow the calculation of the rate of gain of the carcass and its components. Carcass dissection of a sample of steers allowed the development of a prediction equation of carcass composition based on thoracic limb dissection of all carcasses. Forage dry matter intake and live-weight gain increased linearly as maize silage replaced grass silage in the forage mixture, resulting in improvements in food conversion ratio (all P = 0·001). Killing-out proportion increased with maize silage inclusion ( P < 0·001) but fat and conformation scores did not differ significantly between diets. However, increasing maize inclusion in the diet resulted in a greater weight ( P = 0·05) and proportion ( P = 0·008) of fat in the carcass, and significant increases in internal fat deposition. The inclusion of maize led to a progressive increase in the daily gains of carcass ( P < 0·001), and significant increases in the daily gains of both fat ( P < 0·001) and lean tissue ( P < 0·001). Fat colour was more yellow in cattle given diets G and GGM than diets MMG and M ( P < 0·001) and colour intensity was lower on diet M than the other three diets ( P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in any aspects of eating quality between diets. Therefore, maize silage has the potential to reduce the time taken for finishing beef animals to achieve slaughter weight with no apparent detrimental effects on subsequent meat quality.

Digestion, rumen fermentation and circulating concentrations of insulin, growth hormone and IGF-1 in steers fed diets based on different proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Replacing grass silage with maize silage results in a fundamental change in the ratio of structural to non-structural carbohydrates with commensurate changes in rumen fermentation patterns and nutrient utilisation. This study investigated the effects of feeding four forage mixtures, namely grass silage (G); 67 g/100 g grass silage133 g/100 g maize silage (GGM); 67 g/100 g maize silage133/100 g grass silage (MMG); maize silage (M) to four ruminally and duodenally canulated Holstein Friesian steers. All diets were formulated to be isonitrogenous (22.4 g N/kg DM) using a concentrate mixture. Dietary dry matter (DM) and organic matter (OM) digestibility increased with ascending maize silage inclusion (P,0.1) whereas starch and neutral detergent fibre digestibility declined (P,0.05). Ratio of non-glucogenic to glucogenic precursors in the rumen fluid increased with maize silage inclusion (P,0.01) with a commensurate reduction in rumen pH (P,0.05). Mean circulating concentrations of insulin were greatest and similar in diets MMG and GGM, lower in diet M and lowest in diet G (P,0.01). There were no effects of diet on the mean circulating concentration of growth hormone (GH), or the frequency, amplitude and duration of GH pulses, or the mean circulating concentrations of IGF-1. Increasing levels of DM, OM and starch intakes with the substitution of grass silage with maize silage affected overall digestion, nutrient partitioning and subsequent circulating concentrations of insulin.

Thermopile radiometer signal conditioning for surface atmospheric radiation measurements

A highly stable microvolt amplifier for use with atmospheric broadband thermopile radiometers is described. The amplifier has a nominal gain of 500, for bipolar input signals in the range +/- 10 mV from a floating source. The noise level at the input is less than 5 mu V (at 100 k Omega input impedance), permitting instantaneous diffuse solar radiation measurements to 0.5 W m(-2) resolution with 12 bit analog to digital conversion. The temperature stability of gain is better than 5 ppm/degrees C (-4 to 20 degrees C). Averaged over a decade of use, the long term drift of the amplifier gain is less than similar to 0.02%/yr. As well as radiometers measuring solar and terrestrial radiations, the amplifier has also been successfully used with low level signals from thermocouples and ground heat flux plates.

African climate change: Taking the shorter route

Numerous factors are associated with poverty and underdevelopment in Africa, including climate variability. Rainfall, and climate more generally, are implicated directly in the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, and reduce child mortality and incidence of diseases such as malaria by the target date of 2015. But, Africa is not currently on target to meet these goals. We pose a number of questions from a climate science perspective aimed at understanding this background: Is there a common origin to factors that currently constrain climate science? Why is it that in a continent where human activity is so closely linked to interannual rainfall variability has climate science received little of the benefit that saw commercialization driving meteorology in the developed world? What might be suggested as an effective way for the continent to approach future climate variability and change? We make the case that a route to addressing the challenges of climate change in Africa rests with the improved management of climate variability. We start by discussing the constraints on climate science and how they might be overcome. We explain why the optimal management of activities directly influenced by interannual climate variability (which include the development of scientific capacity) has the potential to serve as a forerunner to engagement in the wider issue of climate change. We show this both from the perspective of the climate system and the institutions that engage with climate issues. We end with a thought experiment that tests the benefits of linking climate variability and climate change in the setting of smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa.