Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Competitività in sostenibilità urbana e territoriale. L’Emilia Romagna, regione d’Europa

The thesis in Urban and Regional Geography titled “URBAN AND TERRITORIAL COMPETITIVENESS IN SUSTAINABILITY. EMILIA-ROMAGNA, REGION OF EUROPE” is divided into two sections. Section one is additionally composed by two chapters (chap. 1 and 2) and deals with theoretical and gnosiological issues. Section two, of two more chapters (chap. 3 and 4), provides practical contributions: these issues give explanatory patterns to interpret the performances of emiliano-romagnoli urban systems. Chapter one is an introductory chapter. It analyzes globalization that involves a larger and larger number of cities, rich or poor. It also considers the so called “digital divide” either as one of the major phenomena of this unhomogeneous development or as an interesting gnosiological and practical challenge of geography. Globalization is now involving all the cities, large or small, but the small ones have higher risks of exclusion: it depends on their more fragile socio-economic, cultural, and environmental urban structure. That’s why European Union (chapter two) promotes policies and endows politics to sustain cities, because urban systems are the basis for the territorial development. So, European, national and local Institutions are firmly interested in promoting urban and local interventions and projects. Section two deals with economic-geography methods, which consists on collecting indicators and the benchmarking methodology. It also specifically analyzes the urban systems of Emilia-Romagna. Consequences of the globalization on the cities are interpreted with a study of their local resources, intended as potentials for their development. The STeMA approach, proposed by Professor Maria Prezioso (University of Roma, “Tor Vergata”) and used by the ESPON (European Spatial Program Observation Network) project, describes the main “determinants” of the territorial and urban development. These are easily comparable to one another (similar or better performing). This approach achieves two goals. On one hand, it is possible to analyze every urban system in its all main characteristics and to preserve its historical and cultural factors. On another hand, each city is “knowable” and “understandable” by all scholars, as it is objectively comparable. So, urban planners can propose specific “multi-level” and “multi-varied” programs of governance. These will face globalization by exalting local empowerment.

Measurement of nonmethane organic carbon

The present dissertation focuses on the measurement of nonmethane organic carbon compounds (NMOC) and their exchange by biosphere-atmosphere interactions. To access the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of NMOC analysis, two intercomparison experiments were carried out during the present study. These experiments comprised the sampling of NMOCs on graphitised carbon blacks, followed by gas-chromatographic analysis. Furthermore, they comprised the sampling of short chain carbonyl compounds on solid phase extraction cartridges and their analysis by high pressure liquid chromatography. To investigate the exchange of NMOCs between vegetation and the atmosphere, plant enclosure studies were performed on two European deciduous tree species. These measurements were conducted during two consecutive summer seasons by utilisation of the above specified techniques on sunlit and shaded leaves of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., monoterpene emitter) and sunlit leaves of English oak (Quercus robur L., isoprene emitter). According to its broad geographical distribution, the impact of European beech on the European monoterpene budget was characterized by a model simulation. Complementary an instrument was developed, that is capable of measuring the amount of total NMOC that is exchanged by biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The instrument was tested under laboratory conditions and was evaluated versus an independent method performing branch enclosure measurements.

Formfaktor-Bestimmung des semileptonischen K +- pi 0 my +- ny-Zerfalls mit dem NA48/2-Experiment

Der semileptonische Zerfall K^±→π^0 μ^± υ ist ein geeigneter Kanal zur Be-stimmung des CKM-Matrixelementes 〖|V〗_us |. Das hadronische Matrixelement dieses Zerfalls wird durch zwei dimensionslose Formfaktoren f_± (t) beschrieben. Diese sind abhängig vom Impulsübertrag t=〖(p_K-p_π)〗^2 auf das Leptonpaar. Zur Bestimmung von 〖|V〗_us | dienen die Formfaktoren als wichtige Parameter zur Berechnung des Phasenraumintegrals dieses Zerfalls. Eine präzise Messung der Formfaktoren ist zusätzlich dadurch motiviert, dass das Resultat des NA48-Experimentes von den übrigen Messungen der Experimente KLOE, KTeV und ISTRA+ abweicht. Die Daten einer Messperiode des NA48/2 -Experimentes mit offenem Trigger aus dem Jahre 2004 wurden analysiert. Daraus wählte ich 1.8 Millionen K_μ3^±-Zerfallskandidaten mit einem Untergrundanteil von weniger als 0.1% aus. Zur Bestimmung der Formfaktoren diente die zweidimensionale Dalitz-Verteilung der Daten, nachdem sie auf Akzeptanz des Detektors und auf radiative Effekte korrigiert war. An diese Verteilung wurde die theoretische Parameter-abhängige Funktion mit einer Chiquadrat-Methode angepasst. Es ergeben sich für quadratische, Pol- und dispersive Parametrisierung folgende Formfaktoren: λ_0=(14.82±〖1.67〗_stat±〖0.62〗_sys )×〖10〗^(-3) λ_+^'=(25.53±〖3.51〗_stat±〖1.90〗_sys )×〖10〗^(-3) λ_+^''=( 1.40±〖1.30〗_stat±〖0.48〗_sys )×〖10〗^(-3) m_S=1204.8±〖32.0〗_stat±〖11.4〗_(sys ) MeV/c^2 m_V=(877.4±〖11.1〗_stat±〖11.2〗_(sys ) MeV/c^2 LnC=0.1871±〖0.0088〗_stat±〖0.0031〗_(sys )±=〖0.0056〗_ext Λ_+=(25.42±〖0.73〗_stat±〖0.73〗_(sys )±=〖1.52〗_ext )×〖10〗^(-3) Die Resultate stimmen mit den Messungen der Experimente KLOE, KTeV und ISTRA+ gut überein, und ermöglichen eine Verbesserung des globalen Fits der Formfaktoren. Mit Hilfe der dispersiven Parametrisierung der Formfaktoren, unter Verwendung des Callan-Treiman-Theorems, ist es möglich, einen Wert für f_± (0) zu bestimmen. Das Resultat lautet: f_+ (0)=0.987±〖0.011〗_(NA48/2)±〖0.008〗_(ext ) Der für f_+ (0) berechnete Wert stimmt im Fehler gut mit den vorherigen Messungen von KTeV, KLOE und ISTRA+ überein, weicht jedoch um knapp zwei Standardabweichungen von der theoretischen Vorhersage ab.

Lack of social support in the etiology and the prognosis of coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on the relevance of low social support for the development and course of coronary heart disease (CHD).

Psychological distress in adult survivors of childhood cancer: the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor study

Purpose To evaluate the degree of psychological distress in adult childhood cancer survivors in Switzerland and to characterize survivors with significant distress. Methods Childhood cancer survivors who were age younger than 16 years when diagnosed between 1976 and 2003, had survived more than 5 years, and were currently age 20 years or older received a postal questionnaire. Psychological distress was assessed using the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI). Raw scores were transformed into T scores according to the German norm sample, and the proportion of participants being at increased risk for psychological distress was calculated (case rule: T ≥ 63). t tests and univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used for statistical analyses. Results One thousand seventy-six survivors (63.% of eligible survivors, 71.9% of contacted survivors) returned the questionnaire, 987 with complete data on BSI. Comparison with the norm populations showed lower T scores (T < 50) in the Global Severity Index (GSI; T = 46.2), somatization (T = 47.6), obsessive-compulsive tendencies (T = 46.9), and anxiety (T = 48.4). However, more childhood cancer survivors (especially women) had increased distress for GSI (14.4%), interpersonal sensitivity (16.5%), depression (13.4%), aggression (16.9%), and psychotic tendencies (15.6%) than the expected 10% from the norm population. Caseness was associated with female sex, being a single child, older age at study, and self-reported late effects, especially psychological problems. Conclusion Results show that childhood cancer survivors, on average, have less psychological distress than a norm population but that the proportion of survivors at risk for high psychological distress is disproportionally large. Monitoring psychological distress in childhood cancer survivors may be desirable during routine follow-up, and psychological support should be offered as needed.

Is less more? Patients' preferences for drug information leaflets

Present package information leaflets do not fulfil the needs of many patients. The objective of this study was to investigate patients' preferences towards content and presentation of drug information leaflets using prepared medication brochures in a discrete choice experiment.

Evaluation of articular cartilage in patients with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) using T2* mapping at different time points at 3.0 Tesla MRI: a feasibility study

To define the feasibility of utilizing T2* mapping for assessment of early cartilage degeneration prior to surgery in patients with symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI), we compared cartilage of the hip joint in patients with FAI and healthy volunteers using T2* mapping at 3.0 Tesla over time.

Medication errors in a swiss cardiovascular surgery department: a cross-sectional study based on a novel medication error report method

The purpose of this study was (1) to determine frequency and type of medication errors (MEs), (2) to assess the number of MEs prevented by registered nurses, (3) to assess the consequences of ME for patients, and (4) to compare the number of MEs reported by a newly developed medication error self-reporting tool to the number reported by the traditional incident reporting system. We conducted a cross-sectional study on ME in the Cardiovascular Surgery Department of Bern University Hospital in Switzerland. Eligible registered nurses (n = 119) involving in the medication process were included. Data on ME were collected using an investigator-developed medication error self reporting tool (MESRT) that asked about the occurrence and characteristics of ME. Registered nurses were instructed to complete a MESRT at the end of each shift even if there was no ME. All MESRTs were completed anonymously. During the one-month study period, a total of 987 MESRTs were returned. Of the 987 completed MESRTs, 288 (29%) indicated that there had been an ME. Registered nurses reported preventing 49 (5%) MEs. Overall, eight (2.8%) MEs had patient consequences. The high response rate suggests that this new method may be a very effective approach to detect, report, and describe ME in hospitals.