On the Manipulability of Proportional Representation

This paper presents a new model of voter behaviour under methods of proportional representation (PR). We abstract away from rounding, and assume that a party securing k percent of the vote wins exactly k percent of the available seats. Under this assumption PR is not manipulable by any voter aiming at maximisation of the number of seats in the parliament of her most preferred party. However in this paper we assume that voters are concerned, first and foremost, with the distribution of power in the post-election parliament. We show that, irrespective of which positional scoring rule is adopted, there will always exist circumstances where a voter would have an incentive to vote insincerely. We demonstrate that a voter’s attitude toward uncertainty can influence her incentives to make an insincere vote. Finally, we show that the introduction of a threshold - a rule that a party must secure at least a certain percentage of the vote in order to reach parliament - creates new opportunities for strategic voting. We use the model to explain voter behaviour at the most recent New Zealand general election.

Bootstrap for panel data models with an application to the evaluation of public policies

Le but de cette thèse est d étendre la théorie du bootstrap aux modèles de données de panel. Les données de panel s obtiennent en observant plusieurs unités statistiques sur plusieurs périodes de temps. Leur double dimension individuelle et temporelle permet de contrôler l 'hétérogénéité non observable entre individus et entre les périodes de temps et donc de faire des études plus riches que les séries chronologiques ou les données en coupe instantanée. L 'avantage du bootstrap est de permettre d obtenir une inférence plus précise que celle avec la théorie asymptotique classique ou une inférence impossible en cas de paramètre de nuisance. La méthode consiste à tirer des échantillons aléatoires qui ressemblent le plus possible à l échantillon d analyse. L 'objet statitstique d intérêt est estimé sur chacun de ses échantillons aléatoires et on utilise l ensemble des valeurs estimées pour faire de l inférence. Il existe dans la littérature certaines application du bootstrap aux données de panels sans justi cation théorique rigoureuse ou sous de fortes hypothèses. Cette thèse propose une méthode de bootstrap plus appropriée aux données de panels. Les trois chapitres analysent sa validité et son application. Le premier chapitre postule un modèle simple avec un seul paramètre et s 'attaque aux propriétés théoriques de l estimateur de la moyenne. Nous montrons que le double rééchantillonnage que nous proposons et qui tient compte à la fois de la dimension individuelle et la dimension temporelle est valide avec ces modèles. Le rééchantillonnage seulement dans la dimension individuelle n est pas valide en présence d hétérogénéité temporelle. Le ré-échantillonnage dans la dimension temporelle n est pas valide en présence d'hétérogénéité individuelle. Le deuxième chapitre étend le précédent au modèle panel de régression. linéaire. Trois types de régresseurs sont considérés : les caractéristiques individuelles, les caractéristiques temporelles et les régresseurs qui évoluent dans le temps et par individu. En utilisant un modèle à erreurs composées doubles, l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires et la méthode de bootstrap des résidus, on montre que le rééchantillonnage dans la seule dimension individuelle est valide pour l'inférence sur les coe¢ cients associés aux régresseurs qui changent uniquement par individu. Le rééchantillonnage dans la dimen- sion temporelle est valide seulement pour le sous vecteur des paramètres associés aux régresseurs qui évoluent uniquement dans le temps. Le double rééchantillonnage est quand à lui est valide pour faire de l inférence pour tout le vecteur des paramètres. Le troisième chapitre re-examine l exercice de l estimateur de différence en di¤érence de Bertrand, Duflo et Mullainathan (2004). Cet estimateur est couramment utilisé dans la littérature pour évaluer l impact de certaines poli- tiques publiques. L exercice empirique utilise des données de panel provenant du Current Population Survey sur le salaire des femmes dans les 50 états des Etats-Unis d Amérique de 1979 à 1999. Des variables de pseudo-interventions publiques au niveau des états sont générées et on s attend à ce que les tests arrivent à la conclusion qu il n y a pas d e¤et de ces politiques placebos sur le salaire des femmes. Bertrand, Du o et Mullainathan (2004) montre que la non-prise en compte de l hétérogénéité et de la dépendance temporelle entraîne d importantes distorsions de niveau de test lorsqu'on évalue l'impact de politiques publiques en utilisant des données de panel. Une des solutions préconisées est d utiliser la méthode de bootstrap. La méthode de double ré-échantillonnage développée dans cette thèse permet de corriger le problème de niveau de test et donc d'évaluer correctement l'impact des politiques publiques.

Consumption of black tea and coffee and the risk of lung cancer

Objectif: Étudier l’association entre la consommation de café, la consommation de thé noir et le risque de cancer du poumon. Méthodologie: Cette recherche utilise les données obtenues lors d’une étude cas-témoin effectuée à Montréal avec des résidents canadiens âgés entre 35 et 75 ans recrutés entre 1996 et 2001. Les cas étaient des individus atteints du cancer et diagnostiqués entre 1996 et 1997 dans l’un des 18 hôpitaux de la région du Grand-Montréal. Les contrôles on été sélectionnés à partir de la liste électorale et appariés selon la fréquence de distribution des cas par groupe d’âge de 5 ans, par sexe et par district électoral. Au total, 1130 cas et 1484 contrôles ont été inclus dans cette étude. Les rapports de cote (RC) et les intervalles de confiance de 95% (CI) des associations entre la consommation de thé noir, de café et le cancer du poumon ont été estimés à l’aide de la régression logistique non conditionnelle. Quatre aspects de la consommation ont été analysés dans des modèles multivariés distincts: la fréquence de consommation, la consommation journalière moyenne, la durée de consommation et la consommation cumulative. Les covariables potentielles considérées incluaient : l’âge, le sexe, l’historique de tabagisme, le statut du répondant, l’ethnicité, la consommation d’alcool, la consommation de fruit et de légume, l’apport énergétique journalier, l’exposition a des agents professionnelle et les variables socio-économiques . Des analyses secondaires par le sexe, le tabagisme et le type histologique de cancer on été effectuées. Résultats : Aucune association statistiquement significative n’a été observée entre la consommation de thé noir et le cancer du poumon. Nos résultats suggèrent qu’une consommation de ≥ 50 ans était associée avec une augmentation du risque d’adénocarcinome comparée à aucune consommation. Nous avons observé une association inverse statistiquement significative entre la consommation occasionnelle de café et le cancer du poumon (RC : 0.32, 95%CI : 0.17-0.59). La durée de consommation de café n’était pas associée avec le cancer du poumon. Conclusion : Nos résultats suggèrent que la consommation à long terme de thé noir pourrait augmenter le risque d’adénocarcinome. D’un autre côté, la consommation occasionnelle de café pourrait réduire le risque de cancer du poumon.

Exploring the Diversity of Physiology for Applications in Wastewater Treatment and Biofuels Production

A recently established strain collection of freshwater microalgae native to Quebec was examined for physiological diversity. The 100 strains appeared very heterogeneous in terms of growth when they were cultured at 10±2 °C or 22±2 °C on the secondary effluent from a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WW) and defined BBM medium. Scatterplots were used to examine the diversity in physiology that might be present in the collection. These showed a number of interesting results. There was a fair amount of dispersion in growth rates by media type independent of temperature. Surprisingly considering that all the isolates had been initially enriched on BBM, the distribution was quite symmetrical around the iso-growth line, suggesting that enrichment on BBM did not seem to bias the cells for growth on this medium versus WW. As well, considering that all the isolates had been initially enriched at 22 °C, it is quite surprising that the distribution of specific growth rates was quite symmetrical around the iso-growth line with roughly equal numbers of isolates found on either side. Thus enrichment at 22 °C does not seem to bias the cells for growth at this temperature versus 10°C. The scatterplots obtained when the percentage lipid of cultures grown on BBM were compared with cultures grown on WW at either 10 °C or 22 °C made it apparent that lipid production was favored by growth on WW at either temperature and that lipid production does not seem to be particularly favored by one temperature over the other. When the collection was queried for differences with respect to sampling location, statistical analysis showed that roughly the same degree of physiological diversity was found with samples from the two different aggregate locations.

Studies on the macrobenthos of mudbanks of Southwest cost of India

The present study was undsrtaken.with the objectives to assess the distribution and density of population of benthic animals with special reference to macrofauna from the south west coast of India from ' Malippursa 1 in the north to Alleppey in the south, to evaluate significant difference, if any, in the number and distribution of animals in th md bank regions and other intermittent stations, to examine the influence of bottom stability on the distribution of fauna, to observe the effect of the environmental parameters on the distribution pattern of nacrofauna, and to evaluate the nature and depthpwise distribution of the benthic fishery. The region selected for the investigation is one of the nest important fishing grounds in India for bottom fishing especially for prawns, covering a distance of about 60 kns in length.total number of thirty stations in five transects at right angles to the coast, each consisting of six stations were surveyed. The six stations in a transect were at depths of 5 m, 10m, 20:, 30:, 35m and 45m respectively formation of the Iudbanke, popularly known as 'Ghaknra' in the local language, is a peculiar phenomenon along the ooaet of Kerala and provides a good fishing ground.quantitative distribution of the mecrofauna chewed that the maximum number of organism was near the 35 n contour line in the first three profiles whereas in the fourth and fifth profiles it was at 20 n and 30 m depth respectively. The density of the fauna wee comparatively poor in shallow water etatione at depths 5-‘IO M.was a general decline in the numerical abundance and biomass of the bottom fauna in all the stations during the monsoon period. There has been very little yearly change in the composition of the fauna during the two years‘ study.

Studies on the foraminifera of the south west coast of india

The present investigations confine to a study of the distribution of foraminifera in the estuarine environment and the interstial area of the sandy beaches of the south west coast of India with a view to correlate the distribution and the intensity of occurrence of the various species with hydrographic conditions and the substrate characteristics of the area. Studies on the foraminifera of the estuarine environment were carried out in the vembanad lake ,a major estuary in the south west coast of india extending for about 60km from cochin barmouth in the north to Alleppey in the south.Fortnightly collections of hydrographical data and grab samples of bottom deposit were made for a period of 2 years (july 1973 to june 1975) from fifteen stations chosen along the length of the lake.

Ecotoxic Metal Records and its Degree of Geochemical Symphony in the Niche of Cochin Estuarine System- A Theraptic Perspective

The heavy metal contamination in the environment may lead to circumstances like bioaccumulation and inturn biomagnification. Hence cheaper and effective technologies are needed to protect the precious natural resources and biological lives. A suitable technique is the one which meets the technical and environmental criteria for dealing with a particular remediation problem and should be site-specific due to spatial and climatic variations and it may not economically feasible everywhere. The search for newer technologies for the environmental therapy, involving the removal of toxic metals from wastewaters has directed attention to adsorption, based on metal binding capacities of various adsorbent materials. Therefore, the present study aim to identify and evaluate the most current mathematical formulations describing sorption processes. Although vast amount of research has been carried out in the area of metal removal by adsorption process using activated carbon few specific research data are available in different scientific institutions. The present work highlights the seasonal and spatial variations in the distribution of some selected heavy metals among various geochemical phases of Cochin Estuarine system and also looked into an environmental theraptic/remedial approach by adsorption technique using activated charcoal and chitosan, to reduce and thereby controlling metallic pollution. The thesis has been addressed in seven chapters with further subdivisions. The first chapter is introductory, stating the necessity of reducing or preventing water pollution due to the hazardous impact on environment and health of living organisms and drawing it from a careful review of literature relevant to the present study. It provides a constricted description about the study area, geology, and general hydrology and also bears the major objectives and scope of the present study.

Establishment and characterization of India's first marine fish cell line (SISK) from the kidney of sea bass (Lates calcarifer)

A continuous cell line (SISK) from kidney of sea bass, Lates calcarifer, has been established and characterized. The cell line was maintained in Leibovitz' L-15 supplemented with 15% fetal bovine serum. This cell line has been subcultured more than 100 times over a period of 2 years. The SISK cell line consists of predominantly of epithelial-like cells. These cells showed strong positive for epithelial markers such as cytokeratin 19 and pancytokeratin. The cells were able to grow at temperature between 25 and 32 °C with optimum temperature of 28 °C. The growth rate of sea bass kidney cells increased as the FBS proportion increased from 2% to 20% at 28 °C with optimum growth at the concentrations of 15% or 20% FBS. The distribution of chromosome number was 30 to 56 with a modal peak at 48 chromosomes. Polymerase chain reaction products were obtained from SISK cells and tissues of sea bass with primer sets of microsatellite markers of sea bass. Five fish viruses were tested on this cell line to determine its susceptibility to these viruses and this was found to be susceptible to MABV NC1 and nodavirus, and the infection was confirmed by RT-PCR and CPE. This suggests that the SISK cell line has good potential for the isolation of various fish viruses. This cell line has been shown to be susceptible to bacterial extracellular products. The SISK cell line is the India's first marine fish cell line.

The Ratios of Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus in a Wetland Coastal Ecosystem of Southern India

The fertility of the coastal and estuarine waters is of great concern because of its influence on the productivity of these waters. Seasonal variations in the distribution of organic carbon, total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the sediments of Kuttanad Waters, a part of the tropical Cochin Estuary on the south west coast of India, are examined to identify the contribution of sediments to the fertility of the aquatic systems. The adjoining region has considerable agricultural activity. The fresh water zones had higher quantities of silt and clay whereas the estuarine zone was more sandy. Organic carbon, total phosphorus and total nitrogen were higher in the fresh water zones and lower in the estuarine zones. Total phosphorus and organic carbon showed the lowest values during monsoon periods. No significant trends were observed in the seasonal distributions of total nitrogen. Ratios of C/N, C/P and N/P, and the phosphorus and nitrogen content indicate significant modification in the character of the organic matter. Substantial amounts of the organic matter can contribute to reducing conditions and modify diagenetic processes

Structural characterization and distribution of zebrafish germ plasm during interphase and mitosis

In zebrafish, germ cells are responsible for transmitting the genetic information from one generation to the next. During the first cleavages of zebrafish embryonic development, a specialized part of the cytoplasm known as germ plasm, is responsible of committing four blastomeres to become the progenitors of all germ cells in the forming embryo. Much is known about how the germ plasm is spatially distributed in early stages of primordial germ cell development, a process described to be dependant on microtubules and actin. However, little is known about how the material is inherited after it reorganizes into a perinuclear location, or how is the symmetrical distribution regulated in order to ensure proper inheritance of the material by both daughter cells. It is also not clear whether there is a controlled mechanism that regulates the number of granules inherited by the daughter cells, or whether it is a random process. We describe the distribution of germ plasm material from 4hpf to 24hpf in zebrafish primordial germ cells using Vasa protein as marker. Vasa positive material appears to be conglomerate into 3 to 4 big spherical structures at 4hpf. While development progresses, these big structures become smaller perinuclear granules that reach a total number of approximately 30 at 24hpf. We investigated how this transformation occurs and how the minus-end microtubule dependent motor protein Dynein plays a role in this process. Additionally, we describe specific colocalization of microtubules and perinuclear granules during interphase and more interestingly, during all different stages of cell division. We show that distribution of granules follow what seems to be a regulated distribution: during cells division, daughter cells inherit an equal number of granules. We propose that due to the permanent colocalization of microtubular structures with germinal granules during interphase and cell division, a coordinated mechanism between these structures may ensure proper distribution of the material among daughter cells. Furthermore, we show that exposure to the microtubule-depolymerizing drug nocodazole leads to disassembly of the germ cell nuclear lamin matrix, chromatin condensation, and fusion of granules to a big conglomerate, revealing dependence of granular distribution on microtubules and proper nuclear structure.

The impact of a permanent Income shock on the situation of women in the household: the case of a pension reform in Argentina

Transfers to women may affect their bargaining power within the household and consequently their well-being. We analyze the effects of the 2004/2005 pension reform in Argentina, that resulted in an unexpected and substantial increase in permanent income for around 1.8 million women, on outcomes arguably related to women’s bargaining power within the household. We estimate the effects of the reform in the probability of divorce/separation, the distribution of household chores, and the probability of women being the head of the household, using a Difference-in-Differences approach. Our results show that despite the low divorce probability among seniors, transfers to senior women have substantial effects on their situation in the household. More specifically, we find that the reform had statistically significant effects on the probability of divorce/separation increasing it by 1.8 − 2.7 percentage points implying an increase of around 18 − 19% on the divorce/separation rate of 60 − 65 year old women. Moreover, the probability of being the head of the household also increased by 2.8−3.3 percentage points representing an increase of 7−19% in the probability amongst women of 60 − 65 years of age. In the case of married women, the probability of being the head of the household increased by 1.3 − 1.5 percentage points, which represents an increase of 20 − 22%. Results show that the distribution of household chores within the couples was also affected by the reform. More precisely, the probability that the wife is the only person in charge of the housework decreased by 5 percentage points, an 11% decrease. The participation of husbands in housework, however, did not change significantly.

Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war

Why do some civil wars terminate soon, with victory of one party over the other? What determines if the winner is the incumbent or the rebel group? Why do other conáicts last longer? We propose a simple model in which the power of each armed group depends on the number of combatants it is able to recruit. This is in turn a function of the relative ëdistanceíbetween group leaderships and potential recruits. We emphasize the moral hazard problem of recruitment: Öghting is costly and risky so combatants have the incentive to defect from their task. They can also desert altogether and join the enemy. This incentive is stronger the farther away the Öghter is from the principal, since monitoring becomes increasingly costly. Bigger armies have more power but less monitoring capacity to prevent defection and desertion. This general framework allows a variety of interpretations of what type of proximity matters for building strong cohesive armies ranging from ethnic distance to geographic dispersion. Di§erent assumptions about the distribution of potential Öghters along the relevant dimension of conáict lead to di§erent equilibria. We characterize these, discuss the implied outcome in terms of who wins the war, and illustrate with historical and contemporaneous case studies.

Heterogeneity and the formation of risk - sharing coalitions

We offer a new explanation of partial risk sharing based on coalition formation and segmentation of society in a risky environment, without assuming limited commitment and imperfect information. Heterogenous individuals in a society freely choose with whom they will share risk. A partition belonging to the core of the membership game obtains. Perfect risk sharing does not necessarily arise. Focusing on mutual insurance rule and assuming that individuals only differ with respect to risk, we show that the core partition is homophily-based. The distribution of risk affects the number and size of these coalitions. Individuals may pay a lower risk premium in riskier societies. A higher heterogeneity in risk leads to a lower degree of risk sharing. We discuss how the endogenous partition of society into risk-sharing coalitions may shed light on empirical evidence on partial risk sharing. The case of heterogenous risk aversion leads to similar results.

The Influence of Summer Climate on Avian Community Composition in the Eastern Boreal Forest of Canada

Understanding the relative influence of environmental variables, especially climate, in driving variation in species diversity is becoming increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity. The objective of this study was to determine to what extent climate can explain the structure and diversity of forest bird communities by sampling bird abundance in homogenous mature spruce stands in the boreal forest of the Québec-Labrador peninsula using variance partitioning techniques. We also quantified the relationship among two climatic gradients, summer temperature and precipitation, and bird species richness, migratory strategy, and spring arrival phenology. For the bird community, climate factors appear to be most important in explaining species distribution and abundance because nearly 15% of the variation in the distribution of the 44 breeding birds selected for the analysis can be explained by climate. The vegetation variables we selected were responsible for a much smaller amount of the explained variation (4%). Breeding season temperature seems to be more important than precipitation in driving variation in bird species diversity at the scale of our analysis. Partial correlation analysis indicated that bird species richness distribution was determined by the temperature gradient, because the number of species increased with increasing breeding season temperature. Similar results were observed between breeding season temperature and the number of residents, short-distance and long-distance migrants, and early and late spring migrants. Our results suggest that the northern and southern range boundaries of species are not equally sensitive to the temperature gradient across the region.

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause.