904 resultados para 239903 Risk Theory


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A pilot Youth Court was introduced at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Its objectives were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. An evaluation of the pilot commissioned by the Scottish Executive found that it appeared in many respects to be working well. It was a tightly run court that dealt with a heavy volume of business. With its fast track procedures and additional resources it was regarded as a model to be aspired to in all summary court business. Whether a dedicated Youth Court was required or whether procedural improvements would have been possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was, however, more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Court should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Court was intended to avoid the risk of net-widening and its consequences for young people.

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Objective To examine the risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTI) among Greenlandic children for the purpose of identifying those at highest risk of infection. Methods Between 2005 and 2007, 1797 Greenlandic schoolchildren in five different areas were tested for MTI with an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and a tuberculin skin test (TST). Parents or guardians were surveyed using a standardized self-administered questionnaire to obtain data on crowding in the household, parents’ educational level and the child’s health status. Demographic data for each child – i.e. parents’ place of birth, number of siblings, distance between siblings (next younger and next older), birth order and mother’s age when the child was born – were also extracted from a public registry. Logistic regression was used to check for associations between these variables and MTI, and all results were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Children were considered to have MTI if they tested positive on both the IGRA assay and the TST. Findings The overall prevalence of MTI was 8.5% (152/1797). MTI was diagnosed in 26.7% of the children with a known TB contact, as opposed to 6.4% of the children without such contact. Overall, the MTI rate was higher among Inuit children (OR: 4.22; 95% CI: 1.55–11.5) and among children born less than one year after the birth of the next older sibling (OR: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.33–4.63). Self-reported TB contact modified the profile to include household crowding and low mother’s education. Children who had an older MTI-positive sibling were much more likely to test positive for MTI themselves (OR: 14.2; 95% CI: 5.75–35.0) than children without an infected older sibling. Conclusion Ethnicity, sibling relations, number of household residents and maternal level of education are factors associated with the risk of TB infection among children in Greenland. The strong household clustering of MTI suggests that family sources of exposure are important.

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African Burkitt lymphoma is an aggressive B-cell, non-Hodgkin lymphoma linked to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Malaria biomarkers related to onset of African Burkitt lymphoma are unknown. We correlated age-specific patterns of 2,602 cases of African Burkitt lymphoma (60% male, mean ± SD age = 7.1 ± 2.9 years) from Uganda, Ghana, and Tanzania with malaria biomarkers published from these countries. Age-specific patterns of this disease and mean multiplicity of P. falciparum malaria parasites, defined as the average number of distinct genotypes per positive blood sample based on the merozoite surface protein-2 assessed by polymerase chain reaction, were correlated and both peaked between 5 and 9 years. This pattern, which was strong and consistent across regions, contrasted parasite prevalence, which peaked at 2 years and decreased slightly, and geometric mean parasite density, which peaked between 2 and 3 years and decreased sharply. Our findings suggest that concurrent infection with multiple malaria genotypes may be related to onset of African Burkitt lymphoma.

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Background Although risk of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated cancers of the anus, cervix, oropharynx, penis, vagina, and vulva is increased among persons with AIDS, the etiologic role of immunosuppression is unclear and incidence trends for these cancers over time, particularly after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy in 1996, are not well described. Methods Data on 499 230 individuals diagnosed with AIDS from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2004, were linked with cancer registries in 15 US regions. Risk of in situ and invasive HPV-associated cancers, compared with that in the general population, was measured by use of standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We evaluated the relationship of immunosuppression with incidence during the period of 4–60 months after AIDS onset by use of CD4 T-cell counts measured at AIDS onset. Incidence during the 4–60 months after AIDS onset was compared across three periods (1980–1989, 1990–1995, and 1996–2004). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Among persons with AIDS, we observed statistically significantly elevated risk of all HPV-associated in situ (SIRs ranged from 8.9, 95% CI = 8.0 to 9.9, for cervical cancer to 68.6, 95% CI = 59.7 to 78.4, for anal cancer among men) and invasive (SIRs ranged from 1.6, 95% CI = 1.2 to 2.1, for oropharyngeal cancer to 34.6, 95% CI = 30.8 to 38.8, for anal cancer among men) cancers. During 1996–2004, low CD4 T-cell count was associated with statistically significantly increased risk of invasive anal cancer among men (relative risk [RR] per decline of 100 CD4 T cells per cubic millimeter = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.66, P = .006) and non–statistically significantly increased risk of in situ vagina or vulva cancer (RR = 1.52, 95% CI = 0.99 to 2.35, P = .055) and of invasive cervical cancer (RR = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.80, P = .077). Among men, incidence (per 100 000 person-years) of in situ and invasive anal cancer was statistically significantly higher during 1996–2004 than during 1990–1995 (61% increase for in situ cancers, 18.3 cases vs 29.5 cases, respectively; RR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.35, P < .001; and 104% increase for invasive cancers, 20.7 cases vs 42.3 cases, respectively; RR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.54 to 2.68, P < .001). Incidence of other cancers was stable over time. Conclusions Risk of HPV-associated cancers was elevated among persons with AIDS and increased with increasing immunosuppression. The increasing incidence for anal cancer during 1996–2004 indicates that prolonged survival may be associated with increased risk of certain HPV-associated cancers.

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While a protective long-term effect of parity on endometrial cancer risk is well established, the impact of timing of births is not fully understood. We examined the relationship between endometrial cancer risk and reproductive characteristics in a population-based cohort of 2,674,465 Swedish women, 20–72 years of age. During follow-up from 1973 through 2004, 7,386 endometrial cancers were observed. Compared to uniparous women, nulliparous women had a significantly elevated endometrial cancer risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22–1.42). Endometrial cancer risk decreased with increasing parity; compared to uniparous women, women with ≥4 births had a HR=0.66 (95% CI, 0.59–0.74); p-trend < 0.001. Among multiparous women, we observed no relationship of risk with age at first birth after adjustment for other reproductive factors. While we initially observed a decreased risk with later ages at last birth, this appeared to reflect a stronger relationship with time since last birth, with women with shorter times being at lowest risk. In models for multiparous women that included number of births, age at first and last birth, and time since last birth, age at last birth was not associated with endometrial cancer risk, while shorter time since last birth and increased parity were associated with statistically significantly reduced endometrial cancer risks. The HR was 3.95 (95%CI; 2.17–7.20; p-trend=<0.0001) for women with ≥25 years since a last birth compared to women having given birth within 4 years. Our findings support that clearance of initiated cells during delivery may be important in endometrial carcinogenesis. Keywords: endometrial carcinoma, parity, registry, reproductive factors

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Background India has a large and evolving HIV epidemic. Little is known about cancer risk in Indian persons with HIV/AIDS (PHA) but risk is thought to be low. Methods To describe the state of knowledge about cancer patterns in Indian PHA, we reviewed reports from the international and Indian literature. Results As elsewhere, non-Hodgkin lymphomas dominate the profile of recognized cancers, with immunoblastic/large cell diffuse lymphoma being the most common type. Hodgkin lymphoma is proportionally increased, perhaps because survival with AIDS is truncated by fatal infections. In contrast, Kaposi sarcoma is rare, in association with an apparently low prevalence of Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus. If confirmed, the reasons for the low prevalence need to be understood. Cervical, anal, vulva/vaginal and penile cancers all appear to be increased in PHA, based on limited data. The association may be confounded by sexual behaviors that transmit both HIV and human papillomavirus. Head and neck tumor incidence may also be increased, an important concern since these tumors are among the most common in India. Based on limited evidence, the increase is at buccal/palatal sites, which are associated with tobacco and betel nut chewing rather than human papillomavirus. Conclusion With improving care of HIV and better management of infections, especially tuberculosis, the longer survival of PHA in India will likely increase the importance of cancer as a clinical problem in India. With the population's geographic and social diversity, India presents unique research opportunities that can be embedded in programs targeting HIV/AIDS and other public health priorities.

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Adult day care centres provide a means whereby frail or disabled older people can remain living at home particularly when their family care-givers engage in waged work. In Taiwan, adult day care services appear to meet the cultural needs of both older people and their families for whom filial care is vital. Little research attention has been paid to the use of day care services in Taiwan, the uptake rate of which is low. This grounded theory study explored the ways in which older people and family care-givers construct meanings around the use of day care services in Taiwan. Forty-four semi-structured interviews were undertaken with older people, care-givers and day care centre managers. The findings from grounded theory data analysis bring focus to the assumptions and structures that underpin the process of transition to day care services. A key feature of this process is the reconstruction of personal identity as both the older people and family care-givers work to make sense of the relationship between the self and a changing social structure. Reconstructing identity in a shifting world is the core category of the study and reflects a process of reframing whereby older people came to new definitions of social responsibility and independence within the context of the day care centre. Similarly, the family care-givers actively reformulated the concept of filial piety as they interacted with and interpreted the changes in economic and social conditions in Taiwan.

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Lymphoedema is a chronic condition predominantly affecting the limbs, although it can involve the trunk and other areas of the body. It is characterised by swelling due to excess accumulation of fluid in body tissues. Secondary lymphoedema, which arises following cancer treatment, is the more common form of lymphoedema in developed countries. At least 20% of those diagnosed with the most common cancers will develop lymphoedema. This is a concern in Australia as incidence of these cancers is increasing. Cancer survival rates are also increasing. Currently, this equates to 9 300 new cases of secondary lymphoedema diagnosed each year. Considerable physical and psychosocial impacts of lymphoedema have been reported and its subsequent impact on health-related quality of life can exacerbate other side effects of cancer treatment. Exercise following cancer treatment has been shown to significantly reduce the impact of treatment side effects, improve quality of life and physical status. While participating in exercise does not increase risk nor exacerbate existing lymphoedema, reductions in incidence of lymphoedema exacerbations and associated symptoms have been observed in women participating in regular weight lifting following breast cancer treatment. Despite these benefits, lymphoedema prevention and management advice cautions people with lymphoedema against „repetitive use. or „overuse. of their affected arm. It is possible that this advice creates a barrier to participation in physical activity; however, little is known about the relationship between physical activity and lymphoedema. In addition, the majority of studies examining the experiences of people living with lymphoedema and the impact of the condition have been predominantly conducted internationally and have focused on women following breast cancer. This study sought to explore firstly, how men and women construct their experience of living with lymphoedema following treatment for a range of cancers in the context of everyday life in Australia; and secondly, to analyse the role of physical activity in the lives of those living with lymphoedema following cancer treatment. A social constructivist grounded theory approach was taken to explore these objectives as it is acknowledged that human actions and the meanings associated with these actions are influenced by the interaction between the self and the social world. It is also acknowledged that the research process itself is a social construction between the researcher and participant. Purposive sampling techniques were used to recruit a total of 29 participants from a variety of sources. Telephone interviews and focus groups were conducted to collect data. Data were concurrently collected and analysed and analysis was conducted using the constant comparative method. The core category that developed in objective one was „sense of self‟. The self was defined by perceptions participants held of themselves and their identity prior to a lymphoedema diagnosis and changes to their perceptions and identity since diagnosis. Three conceptual categories which related to each other and to „sense of self‟ were developed through the process of coding that represented the process of how participants constructed their experiences living with secondary lymphoedema in the context of everyday life. Firstly, altered normalcy reflected the physical and psychosocial changes experienced and the effect it had on their lives. Secondly, „accidental journey‟ reflected participants‟ journey with the heath care system prior to diagnosis through to longer term management. Thirdly, renegotiating control revealed participants perceived control over lymphoedema and their ability to participate in daily activities previously enjoyed. These findings revealed the failure of the broader health system to recognise the significant and chronic nature of a lymphoedema diagnosis following cancer treatment with greater understanding, knowledge and support from health professionals being needed. The findings also reveal access to health professionals trained in lymphoedema management, a comprehensive approach encompassing both physical and psychosocial needs and provision of practical and meaningful guidelines supported by scientific evidence would contribute to improved treatment and management of the condition. The key findings for objective two were that people with lymphoedema define physical activity in different ways. Physical activity post-diagnosis was perceived as important by most for a variety of reasons ranging from everyday functioning, to physical and psychosocial health benefits. Issues relating to the impact of lymphoedema on physical activity related to the impact on peoples‟ ability to be physically active, confusion about acceptable forms of physical activity and barriers that lymphoedema presented to being physically active. A relationship between how people construct their experiences with lymphoedema and the role of physical activity was also established. The contribution of physical activity to the lives of people living with lymphoedema following cancer treatment appeared to be influenced by their sense of self as socially constructed through their experiences prior to diagnosis and following diagnosis with lymphoedema. The influence of pre-lymphoedema habits, norms and beliefs suggests the importance of effective health promotion messages to encourage physical activity among the general population and specific messages and guidelines particular to the needs of those diagnosed with lymphoedema following cancer treatment. The influence of participant.s social constructions on the lymphoedema experience highlights the importance of improving interactions between the overall health care system and patients, providing a clear treatment plan, providing evidence-based and clear advice about participation in appropriate physical activity, which in doing so will limit the physical and psychosocial effect of lymphoedema and providing comprehensive physical and psychosocial support to those living with the condition and their families. This study has contributed to a deep understanding of people.s experiences with lymphoedema following cancer treatment and the role of physical activity in the context of daily life in Australia. Findings from this study lead to recommendations for advocacy, a comprehensive approach to diagnosis, treatment and management, and specific areas for future research.

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Academically gifted students are recognised as possessing considerable achievement potential. Yet many gifted students fail to perform at a level commensurate with their ability. This phenomenon is known as underachievement and may have far-reaching personal and social costs. Underachievement is particularly prevalent during early adolescence, between the ages of 10 to 14 years, when declining levels of academic achievement are often apparent. Grouping for instructional purposes is advocated as a means of reducing underachievement for gifted students by providing opportunities for like-minded and like-ability individuals to learn together. Despite this, some gifted students continue to underachieve. For some, underachievement appears to be a deliberate choice making them a population of learners at-risk. This multiple case study examines the relationship between self-presentation and underachievement as experienced by three gifted adolescents. It reveals how students perceived and explained the discrepancy between their ability and performance. Further, the study identifies those self-presentation strategies adopted in response to underachievement. Findings may assist parents and educators to provide greater support for gifted adolescents.

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This paper presents the findings of an indepth study into the effects and success of marketing segmentation, target marketing and fundraising. Organisations are constantly seeking new ways and more efficient means to raise funds so that they can fulfill their objectives. These organisations review and evaluate their resources to gain competitive advantage and increased fundraising success...

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This paper reports on the development of a good practice guide that will offer the higher education sector a framework for safeguarding student learning engagement. The good practice guide and framework are underpinned by a set of principles initially identified as themes in the social justice literature which were refined following the consolidation of data collected from eight selected “good practice” Australasian universities and feedback gathered at various forums and presentations. The good practice guide will provide the sector with examples of institutional wide efforts which respond to national priorities for student retention and will also provide exemplars of institutional practices for each principle to facilitate the uptake of sector-wide good practice. Participants will be provided with the opportunity to discuss the social justice principles, the draft good practice guide and identify the practical applications of the guide within individual institutions.

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Homo-and heteronuclear meso,meso-(E)-ethene-1,2-diyl-linked diporphyrins have been prepared by the Suzuki coupling of porphyrinylboronates and iodovinylporphyrins. Combinations comprising 5,10,15-triphenylporphyrin (TriPP) on both ends of the ethene-1,2-diyl bridge M 210 (M 2=H 2/Ni, Ni 2, Ni/Zn, H 4, H 2Zn, Zn 2) and 5,15-bis(3,5-di-tert-butylphenyl)porphyrinato-nickel(II) on one end and H 2, Ni, and ZnTriPP on the other (M 211), enable the first studies of this class of compounds possessing intrinsic polarity. The compounds were characterized by electronic absorption and steady state emission spectra, 1H NMR spectra, and for the Ni 2 bis(TriPP) complex Ni 210, single crystal X-ray structure determination. The crystal structure shows ruffled distortions of the porphyrin rings, typical of Ni II porphyrins, and the (E)-C 2H 2 bridge makes a dihedral angle of 50° with the mean planes of the macrocycles. The result is a stepped parallel arrangement of the porphyrin rings. The dihedral angles in the solid state reflect the interplay of steric and electronic effects of the bridge on interporphyrin communication. The emission spectra in particular, suggest energy transfer across the bridge is fast in conformations in which the bridge is nearly coplanar with the rings. Comparisons of the fluorescence behaviour of H 410 and H 2Ni10 show strong quenching of the free base fluorescence when the complex is excited at the lower energy component of the Soret band, a feature associated in the literature with more planar conformations. TDDFT calculations on the gas-phase optimized geometry of Ni 210 reproduce the features of the experimental electronic absorption spectrum within 0.1 eV. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

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The principles relating to the passing of risk under a contract for the sale of real property would seem to have been long settled. The rule under the general law is that the risk of loss of the subject matter under a contract for the sale of real property passes to the buyer upon the creation of a valid and binding contract. This article considers the origin of that rule, how it developed with the growth of equity, and advances the view that it is anomalous in a modern context of property dealings. In doing so, the article adverts to the variety of statutory mechanisms used to subvert the rule, few of which are of practical value. It concludes that the rule is outmoded in many respects and suggests a number of reforms which might be implemented nationally to bring consistency and simplicity to the issue of damage or destruction of improvements which are the subject of a land contract.

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Australia is currently in the midst of a major resources boom. However the benefits from the boom are unevenly distributed, with state governments collecting billions in royalties, and mining companies billions in profits. The costs are borne mostly at a local level by regional communities on the frontier of the mining boom, surrounded by thousands of men housed in work camps. The escalating reliance on non–resident workers housed in camps carries significant risks for individual workers, host communities and the provision of human services and infrastructure. These include rising rates of fatigue–related death and injuries, rising levels of alcohol–fuelled violence, illegally erected and unregulated work camps, soaring housing costs and other costs of living, and stretched basic infrastructure undermining the sustainability of these towns. But these costs have generally escaped industry, government and academic scrutiny. This chapter directs a critical gaze at the hopelessly compromised industry–funded research vital to legitimating the resource sector’s self–serving knowledge claims that it is committed to social sustainability and corporate responsibility. The chapter divides into two parts. The first argues that post–industrial mining regimes mask and privatise these harms and risks, shifting them on to workers, families and communities. The second part links the privatisation of these risks with the political economy of privatised knowledge embedded in the approvals process for major resource sector projects.

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In an age where the role of police has morphed from simplistic response and enforcement activities to one of managing human security risk, it is argued that intelligence can be used to reduce the impact of strategic surprise from evolving criminal threats and environmental change. This review specifically focusses on research that has implications for strategic intelligence in law enforcement. The review findings highlight the absence of detailed research of law enforcement strategic intelligence. Findings suggest that current law enforcement intelligence literature focuses narrowly on the management concept of intelligence-led policing in a tactical, operational setting. As a result there is little theory on how to improve strategic intelligence outcomes. This is despite the fact that intelligence –led policing is envisaged as a management tool to guide strategic decision making. the review identifies central issues surrounding strategic intelligence and highlights key questions that future research agendas must address to improve strategic intelligence outcomes