The consequences for Russia of the nuclear deal with Iran. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 177/03.08.2015

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the USA, the United Kingdom, China, France and Russia) plus Germany and the European Union signed a deal with Iran on 14 July in Vienna (a Plan of Action with five appendices, henceforth referred to as the Vienna Agreement). Under this agreement, Iran undertook to restrict its nuclear programme and to bring it under international scrutiny for 15 years in exchange for a gradual lifting of international sanctions (both those imposed between 2006 and 2010 by the UN Security Council and the unilateral US and EU sanctions). Even though Russia has officially reacted positively to this deal, the consequences it will have are rather ambiguous from Moscow’s point of view. Iran looks set to become stronger and will possibly normalise its relations with the West, and especially the United States. This, in political terms, is a disadvantage for Russia. The Kremlin’s ability to use its policy towards Iran as a bargaining chip in contacts with Washington will be reduced significantly. In turn, the benefits will include improving the perception of Russia in the West and the opening up of new opportunities for the geopolitical game in the region, both with Iran and its opponents in the Arab world. Similarly, in economic terms, the possible lifting of sanctions will offer Russia new opportunities to achieve immediate benefits owing to co-operation in the nuclear and military-technical areas. In the short term, the lifting of sanctions will not pose any threat to Russia’s position on the global energy markets. However, in the long term, the end of Iran’s international isolation may bring negative consequences for Russia, such as the dominant position of Western and/or Chinese companies in the Iranian upstream sector, rising exports of Iranian oil and gas to EU and Asian markets (which are essential for Russia) and the downward pressure on oil and gas prices.

Radiolarian-based paleotemperatures of ODP Site 177-1089 in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean

Two cores, Site 1089 (ODP Leg 177) and PS2821-1, recovered from the same location (40°56'S; 9°54'E) at the Subtropical Front (STF) in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean, provide a high-resolution climatic record, with an average temporal resolution of less than 600 yr. A multi-proxy approach was used to produce an age model for Core PS2821-1, and to correlate the two cores. Both cores document the last climatic cycle, from Marine Isotopic Stage 6 (MIS 6, ca. 160 kyr BP, ka) to present. Summer sea-surface temperatures (SSSTs) have been estimated, with a standard error of ca. +/-1.16°C, for the down core record by using Q-mode factor analysis (Imbrie and Kipp method). The paleotemperatures show a 7°C warming at Termination II (last interglacial, transition from MIS 6 to MIS 5). This transition from glacial to interglacial paleotemperatures (with maximum temperatures ca. 3°C warmer than present at the core location) occurs earlier than the corresponding shift in delta18O values for benthic foraminifera from the same core; this suggests a lead of Southern Ocean paleotemperature changes compared to the global ice-volume changes, as indicated by the benthic isotopic record. The climatic evolution of the record continues with a progressive temperature deterioration towards MIS 2. High-frequency, millennial-scale climatic instability has been documented for MIS 3 and part of MIS 4, with sudden temperature variations of almost the same magnitude as those observed at the transitions between glacial and interglacial times. These changes occur during the same time interval as the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles recognized in the delta18Oice record of the GRIP and GISP ice cores from Greenland, and seem to be connected to rapid changes in the STF position in relation to the core location. Sudden cooling episodes ('Younger Dryas (YD)-type' and 'Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR)-type' of events) have been recognized for both Termination I (ACR-I and YD-I events) and II (ACR-II and YD-II events), and imply that our core is located in an optimal position in order to record events triggered by phenomena occurring in both hemispheres. Spectral analysis of our SSST record displays strong analogies, particularly for high, sub-orbital frequencies, to equivalent records from Vostok (Antarctica) and from the Subtropical North Atlantic ocean. This implies that the climatic variability of widely separated areas (the Antarctic continent, the Subtropical North Atlantic, and the Subantarctic South Atlantic) can be strongly coupled and co-varying at millennial time scales (a few to 10-ka periods), and eventually induced by the same triggering mechanisms. Climatic variability has also been documented for supposedly warm and stable interglacial intervals (MIS 1 and 5), with several cold events which can be correlated to other Southern Ocean and North Atlantic sediment records.

(Table T1) Ice rafted debris characteristics of ODP Site 177-1092

We have carried out a multiphase analysis of samples from ODP Site 177-1092, Meteor Rise, subantarctic South Atlantic. Samples were analyzed for ice-rafted debris (IRD [see Table T1]) and stable isotopes from benthic foraminifera [see Murphy et al., 2002, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(01)00495-3]. Both analyses were performed on the same samples. Additional work was performed to identify the paleomagnetic stratigraphy. The analyzed samples range in age from about 2.6(?) Ma to 4.6 Ma, a time span that saw considerable global warmth, but witnessed overall global refrigeration and the transition to truly bipolar glaciations. IRD arrived frequently during the Early and early Late Pliocene, but only as 'background rafting' (occasional grains per sample). The first identifiable IRD above background rafting is associated with marine isotope stage (MIS) KM4 (~3.18 Ma). Successive IRD peaks become larger, the same pattern as noted at nearby Site 114-704. A very large peak near the top of the record, approximately 2.8 Ma, is considered to represent a hiatus. Peaks below 51.3 meters composite depth (mcd) coincide with positive excursions of the oxygen isotopic record, and with negative excursions of the carbon isotopic curve, a pattern also noted at Site 114-704. However, the reasonably large IRD peak at 51 mcd (tentatively identified with MIS G11) coincides with a positive excursion on the carbon isotopic curve and negative excursion on the oxygen isotopic curve. This relationship suggests a northern hemisphere interglacial, rising sea level, destabilization of the Antarctic margin, and delivery of Antarctic icebergs to the Southern Ocean. Such a mechanism has recently been suggested by Kanfoush et al. (2000, doi:10.1126/science.288.5472.1815) for latest Pleistocene stadial/interstadial oscillations. Here we suggest that such a mechanism may have been in place on glacial/interglacial time scales as early as the Late Pliocene.