Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical VC dimension, empirical VC entropy, and margin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Measurement and correlates of caregiver self-efficacy amongst family caregivers of persons with dementia living in Shanghai, China

Background: Caring for family members with dementia can be a long-term, burdensome task resulting in physical and emotional distress and impairment. Research has demonstrated significantly lower levels of selfefficacy among family caregivers of people with dementia (CGs) than caregivers of relatives with non-dementia diseases. Intervention studies have also suggested that the mental and physical health of dementia CGs could be improved through the enhancement of their self-efficacy. However, studies are limited in terms of the influences of caregiver self-efficacy on caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life. Of particular note is that there are no studies on the applicability of caregiver self-efficacy in the social context of China. Objective: The purpose of this thesis was to undertake theoretical exploration using Bandura’s (1997) self-efficacy theory to 1) revise the Revised Caregiving Self-Efficacy Scale (C-RCSES) (Steffen, McKibbin, Zeiss, Gallagher-Thompson, & Bandura, 2002), and 2) explore determinants of caregiver self-efficacy and the role of caregiver self-efficacy and other conceptual constructs (including CGs’ socio-demographic characteristics, CRs’ impairment and CGs’ social support) in explaining and predicting caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life among CGs in China. Methodology: Two studies were undertaken: a qualitative elicitation study with 10 CGs; and a cross-sectional survey with 196 CGs. In the first study, semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore caregiver behaviours and corresponding challenges for their performance. The findings of the study assisted in the development of the initial items and domains of the Chinese version of the Revised Caregiving Self-Efficacy Scale (C-RCSES). Following changes to items in the scale, the second study, a cross-sectional survey with 196 CGs was conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of C-RCSES and to test a hypothesised self-efficacy model of family caregiving adapted from Bandura’s theory (1997). Results: 35 items were generated from the qualitative data. The content validity of the C-RCSES was assessed and ensured in Study One before being used for the cross-sectional survey. Eight items were removed and five subscales (caregiver self-efficacy for gathering information about treatment, symptoms and health care; obtaining support; responding to problematic behaviours; management of household, personal and medical care; and controlling upsetting thoughts about caregiving) were identified after principal component factor analysis on the cross-sectional survey data. The reliability of the scale is acceptable: the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the whole scale and for each subscale were all over .80; and the fourweek test-retest reliabilities for the whole scale and for each subscale ranged from .64 to .85. The concurrent, convergent and divergent validity were also acceptable. CGs reported moderate levels of caregiver self-efficacy. Furthermore, the level of self-efficacy for management of household, personal and medical care was relatively high in comparison to those of the other four domains of caregiver self-efficacy. Caregiver self-efficacy was also significantly influenced by CGs’ socio-demographic characteristics and the caregiving external factors (CR impairment and social support that CGs obtained). The level of caregiver behaviour that CGs reported was higher than that reported in other Chinese research. CGs’ socio-demographics significantly influenced caregiver behaviour, whereas caregiver self-efficacy did not influence caregiver behaviour. Regarding the two external factors, CGs who cared for highly impaired relatives reported high levels of caregiver behaviour, but social support did not influence caregiver behaviour. Regarding caregiver subjective burden and health-related quality of life, CGs reported moderate levels of subjective burden, and their level of healthrelated quality of life was significantly lower than that of the general population in China. The findings also indicated that CGs’ subjective burden and health-related quality of life were influenced by all major factors in the hypothesised model, including CGs’ socio-demographics, CRs’ impairment, social support that CGs obtained, caregiver self-efficacy and caregiver behaviour. Of these factors, caregiver self-efficacy and social support significantly improved their subjective burden and health-related quality of life; whereas caregiver behaviour and CRs’ impairment were detrimental to CGs, such as increasing subjective burden and worsening health-related quality of life. Conclusion: While requiring further exploration, the qualitative study was the first qualitative research conducted in China to provide an in-depth understanding of CGs’ caregiving experience, including their major caregiver behaviours and the corresponding challenges. Meanwhile, although the C-RCSES needs further psychometric testing, it is a useful tool for assessing caregiver self-efficacy in Chinese populations. Results of the qualitative and quantitative study provide useful information for future studies regarding the explanatory power of caregiver self-efficacy to caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life. Additionally, integrated with Bandura’s theory, the findings from the quantitative study also suggested a further study exploring the role of outcome expectations in caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and healthrelated quality of life.

Correlates of Pedometer Use: Results from a Community-based Physical Activity Intervention Trial (10,000 Steps Rockhampton)

Background Pedometers have become common place in physical activity promotion, yet little information exists on who is using them. The multi-strategy, community-based 10,000 Steps Rockhampton physical activity intervention trial provided an opportunity to examine correlates of pedometer use at the population level. Methods Pedometer use was promoted across all intervention strategies including: local media, pedometer loan schemes through general practice, other health professionals and libraries, direct mail posted to dog owners, walking trail signage, and workplace competitions. Data on pedometer use were collected during the 2-year follow-up telephone interviews from random population samples in Rockhampton, Australia, and a matched comparison community (Mackay). Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent influence of interpersonal characteristics and program exposure variables on pedometer use. Results Data from 2478 participants indicated that 18.1% of Rockhampton and 5.6% of Mackay participants used a pedometer in the previous 18-months. Rockhampton pedometer users (n = 222) were more likely to be female (OR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.23), aged 45 or older (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.46) and to have higher levels of education (university degree OR = 4.23, 95% CI: 1.86, 9.6). Respondents with a BMI > 30 were more likely to report using a pedometer (OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.54) than those in the healthy weight range. Compared with those in full-time paid work, respondents in 'home duties' were significantly less likely to report pedometer use (OR = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.53). Exposure to individual program components, in particular seeing 10,000 Steps street signage and walking trails or visiting the website, was also significantly associated with greater pedometer use. Conclusion Pedometer use varies between population subgroups, and alternate strategies need to be investigated to engage men, people with lower levels of education and those in full-time 'home duties', when using pedometers in community-based physical activity promotion initiatives.

Lessons learned from implementation of a demonstration program to reduce the burden of anemia and hookworm in women in Yen Bai Province, Viet Nam

Background Iron deficiency, anemia and hookworm disease are important public health problems for women of reproductive age living in developing countries and affect the health of newborns and infants. Iron supplementation and deworming treatment are effective in addressing these problems in both pregnant and non-pregnant women. Daily iron supplementation and deworming after the first trimester is recommended for pregnant women although these programs usually do not operate efficiently or effectively. Weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and regular deworming for non-pregnant women may be a viable approach for improving iron status and preventing anemia during the reproductive years. Addressing these diseases at a population level before women become pregnant could significantly improve women's health before and during pregnancy, as well as their infants' growth and development. Methods and Results This paper describes the major processes undertaken in a demonstration intervention of preventive weekly iron-folic acid supplementation with regular deworming for all 52,000 women aged 15–45 years in two districts of Yen Bai province, in northern Viet Nam. The intervention strategy included extensive consultation with community leaders and village, commune, district and provincial health staff, and training for village health workers. Distribution of the drugs was integrated with the existing health service infrastructure and the village health workers were the direct point of contact with women. Iron-folic acid tablets and deworming treatment were provided free of charge from May 2006. An independent Vietnamese NGO was commissioned to evaluate compliance and identify potential problems. The program resulted in effective distribution of iron-folic acid tablets and deworming treatment to all villages in the target districts, with full or partial compliance of 85%. Conclusion Training for health staff, the strong commitment of all partners and the use of appropriate educational materials led to broad support for weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and high participation in the regular deworming days. In March 2008 the program was expanded to all districts in the province, a target population of approximately 250,000 WRA, and management was handed over to provincial authorities.

History in the Australian Curriculum F-10 : providing answers without asking questions

This paper examines the most recent version of the Australian Curriculum: History F-10. It does so in two ways. First, it explores some of the strengths and weaknesses of this curriculum with reference to the decision to frame aspects of Australian history within the context of a world history approach. Whilst the positioning of Indigenous Histories is applauded, the curriculum’s lack of attention to the significance of the recent history of Australia’s Asian neighbours, and Australia’s relationship with them, is critiqued. This part of the paper also emphasises the need for comparative approaches and calls for greater emphasis on providing students with opportunities to critique and contest the construction of narratives about the past. Second, the paper introduces four invited articles that examine different aspects of the Australian Curriculum: History. Collectively these papers reiterate the significance of the richness of integrated and child-centred approaches and the importance of developing historical thinking, empathy and the historical imagination in the classroom.

Assessing the concordance of health and child protection data for 'maltreated' and 'unintentionally injured' children

Objectives: To quantify the concordance of hospital child maltreatment data with child protection service (CPS) records and identify factors associated with linkage. Methods: Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted following retrospective medical record review and database linkage of 884 child records from 20 hospitals and the CPS in Queensland, Australia. Results: Nearly all children with hospital assigned maltreatment codes (93.1%) had a CPS record. Of these, 85.1% had a recent notification. 29% of the linked maltreatment group (n=113) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation. Almost 1/3 of children with unintentional injury hospital codes were known to CPS. Just over 24% of the linked unintentional injury group (n=34) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation but became known during or after discharge from hospital. These estimates are higher than the 2006/07 annual rate of 2.39% of children being notified to CPS. Rural children were more likely to link to CPS, and children were over 3 times more likely to link if the index injury documentation included additional diagnoses or factors affecting their health. Conclusions: The system for referring maltreatment cases to CPS is generally efficient, although up to 1 in 15 children had codes for maltreatment but could not be linked to CPS data. The high proportion of children with unintentional injury codes who linked to CPS suggests clinicians and hospital-based child protection staff should be supported by further education and training to ensure children at risk are being detected by the child protection system.

Haplotype analysis of two recurrent CDKN2A mutations in 10 melanoma families : evidence for common founders and independent mutations

Germ-line mutations in CDKN2A have been shown to predispose to cutaneous malignant melanoma. We have identified 2 new melanoma kindreds which carry a duplication of a 24bp repeat present in the 5' region of CDKN2A previously identified in melanoma families from Australia and the United States. This mutation has now been reported in 5 melanoma families from 3 continents: Europe, North America, and Australasia. The M53I mutation in exon 2 of CDKN2A has also been documented in 5 melanoma families from Australia and North America. The aim of this study was to determine whether the occurrence of the mutations in these families from geographically diverse populations represented mutation hotspots within CDKN2A or were due to common ancestors. Haplotypes of 11 microsatellite markers flanking CDKN2A were constructed in 5 families carrying the M53I mutation and 5 families carrying the 24bp duplication. There were some differences in the segregating haplotypes due primarily to recombinations and mutations within the short tandem-repeat markers; however, the data provide evidence to indicate that there were at least 3 independent 24bp duplication events and possibly only 1 original M53I mutation. This is the first study to date which indicates common founders in melanoma families from different continents.

Systemic inflammatory responses to maximal versus submaximal lengthening contractions of the elbow flexors

We compared changes in markers of muscle damage and systemic inflammation after submaximal and maximal lengthening muscle contractions of the elbow flexors. Using a cross-over design, 10 healthy young men not involved in resistance training completed a submaximal trial (10 sets of 60 lengthening contractions at 10% maximum isometric strength, 1 min rest between sets), followed by a maximal trial (10 sets of three lengthening contractions at 100% maximum isometric strength, 3 min rest between sets). Lengthening contractions were performed on an isokinetic dynamometer. Opposite arms were used for the submaximal and maximal trials, and the trials were separated by a minimum of two weeks. Blood was sampled before, immediately after, 1 h, 3 h, and 1-4 d after each trial. Total leukocyte and neutrophil numbers, and the serum concentration of soluble tumor necrosis factor-alpha receptor 1 were elevated after both trials (P < 0.01), but there were no differences between the trials. Serum IL-6 concentration was elevated 3 h after the submaximal contractions (P < 0.01). The concentrations of serum tumor necrosis factor-alpha, IL-1 receptor antagonist, IL-10, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor and plasma C-reactive protein remained unchanged following both trials. Maximum isometric strength and range of motion decreased significantly (P < 0.001) after both trials, and were lower from 1-4 days after the maximal contractions compared to the submaximal contractions. Plasma myoglobin concentration and creatine kinase activity, muscle soreness and upper arm circumference all increased after both trials (P < 0.01), but were not significantly different between the trials. Therefore, there were no differences in markers of systemic inflammation, despite evidence of greater muscle damage following maximal versus submaximal lengthening contractions of the elbow flexors.

The mixed anion mineral parnauite Cu9[(OH)10|SO4|(AsO4)2]•7H2O – a Raman spectroscopic study

The mixed anion mineral parnauite Cu9[(OH)10|SO4|(AsO4)2].7H2O from two localities namely Cap Garonne Mine, Le Pradet, France and Majuba Hill mine, Pershing County, Nevada, USA has been studied by Raman spectroscopy. The Raman spectrum of the French sample is dominated by an intense band at 975 cm-1 assigned to the ν1 (SO4)2- symmetric stretching mode and Raman bands at 1077 and 1097 cm-1 may be attributed to the ν3 (SO4)2- antisymmetric stretching mode. Two Raman bands 1107 and 1126 cm-1 are assigned to carbonate CO32- symmetric stretching bands and confirms the presence of carbonate in the structure of parnauite. The comparatively sharp band for the Pershing County mineral at 976 cm-1 is assigned to the ν1 (SO4)2- symmetric stretching mode and a broad spectral profile centered upon 1097 cm-1 is attributed to the ν3 (SO4)2- antisymmetric stretching mode. Two intense bands for the Pershing County mineral at 851 and 810 cm-1 are assigned to the ν1 (AsO4)3- symmetric stretching and ν3 (AsO4)3- antisymmetric stretching modes. Two Raman bands for the French mineral observed at 725 and 777 cm-1 are attributed to the ν3 (AsO4)3- antisymmetric stretching mode. For the French mineral, a low intensity Raman band is observed at 869 cm-1 and is assigned to the ν1 (AsO4)3- symmetric stretching vibration. Chemical composition of parnauite remains open and the question may be raised is parnauite a solid solution of two or more minerals such as a copper hydroxy-arsenate and a copper hydroxy sulphate.

A software tool for simulating spatial separation and kinetics in biological membranes

Self-segregation and compartimentalisation are observed experimentally to occur spontaneously on live membranes as well as reconstructed model membranes. It is believed that many of these processes are caused or supported by anomalous diffusive behaviours of biomolecules on membranes due to the complex and heterogeneous nature of these environments. These phenomena are on the one hand of great interest in biology, since they may be an important way for biological systems to selectively localize receptors, regulate signaling or modulate kinetics; and on the other, they provide an inspiration for engineering designs that mimick natural systems. We present an interactive software package we are developing for the purpose of simulating such processes numerically using a fundamental Monte Carlo approach. This program includes the ability to simulate kinetics and mass transport in the presence of either mobile or immobile obstacles and other relevant structures such as liquid-ordered lipid microdomains. We also present preliminary simulation results regarding the selective spatial localization and chemical kinetics modulating power of immobile obstacles on the membrane, obtained using the program.