Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.

Electron paramagnetic resonance investigation of the free radicals in the gas and particulate phases of cigarette smoke using spin-trapping techniques

Free radicals in cigarette smoke have been studied using spin trapping EPR techniques. 2R4F reference cigarettes were smoked using 35 ml puff volumes of 2 seconds duration, once every 60 seconds. The particulate phase of the smoke was separated from the gas phase by passing the smoke through a Cambridge filter pad. For both phases, free radicals were measured and identified. A range of spin-traps was employed: PBN, DMPO, DEPMPO, and DPPH-PBN. In the gas-phase, short-lived carbon- and oxygen- centered radicals were identified; the ratios between them changed during the smoking runs. For the first puffs, C-centered radicals predominated while for the later puffs, O-centered radicals were mainly observed. The particulate phase and the ‘tar’ were studied as well.

Diallyl disulphide, a beneficial component of garlic oil, causes a redistribution of cell-cycle growth phases, induces apoptosis and enhances butyrate-induced apoptosis in colorectal adenocarcinoma cells (HT-29)

Colon cancer is a leading and expanding cause of death worldwide. A major contributory factor to this disease is diet composition; some components are beneficial (e.g. dietary fibre) whilst others are detrimental (e.g. alcohol). Garlic oil is a prominent dietary constituent that prevents the development of colorectal cancer. This effect is believed to be mainly due to diallyl disulphide (DADS), which selectively induces redox stress in cancerous (rather than normal) cells which leads to apoptotic cell death. However, the detailed mechanism by which DADS causes apoptosis remains unclear. We show that DADS-treatment of colonic adenocarcinoma cells (HT-29) initiates a cascade of molecular events characteristic of apoptosis. These include a decrease in cellular proliferation, translocation of phosphatidylserine to the plasma-membrane outer-layer, activation of caspase-3, genomic-DNA fragmentation and G2/M phase cell-cycle arrest. Short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), particularly butyrate (abundantly produced in the gut by bacterial fermentation of dietary polysaccharides), enhance colonic cell integrity but, in contrast, inhibit colonic-cancer cell growth. Combining DADS with butyrate augmented the effect of butyrate on HT-29 cells. These results suggest that the anti-cancerous properties of DADS afford greater benefit when supplied with other favourable dietary factors (SCFA/polysaccharides) that likewise reduce colonic tumour development.

Efficiency of pseudo-spectral algorithms with Anderson mixing for the SCFT of periodic block-copolymer phases

This study examines the numerical accuracy, computational cost, and memory requirements of self-consistent field theory (SCFT) calculations when the diffusion equations are solved with various pseudo-spectral methods and the mean field equations are iterated with Anderson mixing. The different methods are tested on the triply-periodic gyroid and spherical phases of a diblock-copolymer melt over a range of intermediate segregations. Anderson mixing is found to be somewhat less effective than when combined with the full-spectral method, but it nevertheless functions admirably well provided that a large number of histories is used. Of the different pseudo-spectral algorithms, the 4th-order one of Ranjan, Qin and Morse performs best, although not quite as efficiently as the full-spectral method.

Impact of Huntington's across the entire disease spectrum: the phases and stages of disease from the patient perspective

Although Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor, cognitive and behavioural disturbances, there has been little empirical data examining what patients are most concerned about throughout the different stages of disease, which can span many years. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were individually conducted with 31 people living with different stages of Huntington's, from pre-clinical gene carriers to advanced stage. We examined how often participants raised issues and concerns regarding the impact of Huntington's on everyday life. The Physical/functional theme hardly featured pre-clinically, but was strongly present from Stage 1, rose steadily and peaked at Stage 5. There were no significant changes between stages for the Emotional, Social, and Self themes that all featured across all stages, indicating that these issues were not raised more frequently over the course of the disease. Likewise, the more rarely mentioned Financial and Legal themes also remained similar across stages. However, the Cognitive theme only featured between Stages 1 and 4, and hardly at all pre-clinically and at Stage 5. These findings provide insight into patients' important and unique perspective and have implications for the management and development of interventions across the spectrum of HD stages.

Women, other "fresh” workers, and the new manufacturing workforce of interwar Britain

Structural, organizational, and technological changes in British industry during the interwar years led to a decline in skilled and physically demanding work, while there was a dramatic expansion in unskilled and semiskilled employment. Previous authors have noted that the new un/semiskilled jobs were generally filled by “fresh” workers recruited from outside the core manufacturing workforce, though there is considerable disagreement regarding the composition of this new workforce. This paper examines labour recruitment patterns and strategies using national data and case studies of eight rapidly expanding industrial centres. The new industrial workforce is shown to have been recruited from a “reserve army” of workers with the common features of relative cheapness, flexibility, and weak unionization. These included women, juveniles, local workers in poorly paid nonindustrial sectors, such as agriculture, and (where these other categories were in short supply) relatively young long-distance internal migrants from declining industrial areas.

The relationship between El Niño and the western North Pacific summer climate in a coupled GCM: role of the transition of El Niño decaying phases

This study investigates the impacts of the transition of El Niño decaying phases on the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) anomalies in the subsequent summer with a coupled GCM. The modeling results suggest that the El Niños with short decaying phases lead to significant WNPAC anomalies in the following summer, which are contributed to mainly by the El Niños followed by La Niñas, in comparison with those not followed by La Niñas. In contrast, the long decaying cases are associated with the disappearance of WNPAC anomalies in the summer. These differences in the WNP circulation anomalies can be explained by the different configurations of simultaneous SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the central and eastern tropical Pacific: positive SSTs in the former region and negative ones in the latter region constructively induce significant WNPAC anomalies for the short decaying cases, while the roles of positive SSTs in both regions for the long decaying cases work destructively and lead to weak WNP circulation anomalies. Further analysis indicates that the different lengths of El Niño decaying phases are predicted by the strength of Indian Ocean SSTs in the mature winter. The warmer wintertime Indian Ocean SSTs favor the anomalous easterly wind over the western and central equatorial Pacific in the subsequent summer, leading to a short decaying of El Niño. Thus, the strength of wintertime Indian Ocean SSTs is one of the important factors that affect the length of El Niño decaying phase and resultant WNPAC anomalies in the following summer.

Bridging the Faraoni and Selli oceanic anoxic events: late Hauterivian to early Aptian dysaerobic to anaerobic phases in the Tethys.

A detailed geochemical analysis was performed on the upper part of the Maiolica Formation in the Breggia (southern Switzerland) and Capriolo sections (northern Italy). The analysed sediments consist of well-bedded, partly siliceous, pelagic carbonate, which lodges numerous thin, dark and organic-rich layers. Stable-isotope, phosphorus, organic-carbon and a suite of redox-sensitive trace-element contents (RSTE: Mo, U, Co, V and As) were measured. The RSTE pattern and Corg:Ptot ratios indicate that most organic-rich layers were deposited under dysaerobic rather than anaerobic conditions and that latter conditions were likely restricted to short intervals in the latest Hauterivian, the early Barremian and the pre-Selli early Aptian. Correlations are both possible with organic-rich intervals in central Italy (the Gorgo a Cerbara section) and the Boreal Lower Saxony Basin, as well as with the facies and drowning pattern in the Helvetic segment of the northern Tethyan carbonate platform. Our data and correlations suggest that the latest Hauterivian witnessed the progressive installation of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys, which went along with the onset in sediment condensation, phosphogenesis and platform drowning on the northern Tethyan margin, and which culminated in the Faraoni anoxic episode. This episode is followed by further episodes of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys and the Lower Saxony Basin, which became more frequent and progressively stronger in the late early Barremian. Platform drowning persisted and did not halt before the latest early Barremian. The late Barremian witnessed diminishing frequencies and intensities in dysaerobic conditions, which went along with the progressive installation of the Urgonian carbonate platform. Near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, the increasing density in dysaerobic episodes in the Tethyan and Lower Saxony Basins is paralleled by a change towards heterozoan carbonate production on the northern Tethyan shelf. The following return to more oxygenated conditions is correlated with the second phase of Urgonian platform growth and the period immediately preceding and corresponding to the Selli anoxic episode is characterised by renewed platform drowning and the change to heterozoan carbonate production. Changes towards more humid climate conditions were the likely cause for the repetitive installation of dys- to anaerobic conditions in the Tethyan and Boreal basins and the accompanying changes in the evolution of the carbonate platform towards heterozoan carbonate-producing ecosystems and platform drowning.