950 resultados para value at risk


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Background A higher burden of head and neck cancer has been reported to affect deprived populations. This study assessed the association between socioeconomic status and head and neck cancer, aiming to explore how this association is related to differences of tobacco and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Methods We conducted a case-control study in Sao Paulo, Brazil (1998-2006), including 1017 incident cases of oral, pharyngeal and laryngeal cancer, and 951 sex- and age-matched controls. Education and occupation were distal determinants in the hierarchical approach; cumulative exposure to tobacco and alcohol were proximal risk factors. Outcomes of the hierarchical model were compared with fully adjusted ORs. Results Individuals with lower education (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.61 to 3.19) and those performing manual labour (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.92) had a higher risk of disease. However, 54% of the association with lower education and 45% of the association with manual labour were explained by proximal lifestyle exposures, and socioeconomic status remained significantly associated with disease when adjusted for smoking and alcohol consumption. Conclusions Socioeconomic differences in head and neck cancer are partially attributable to the distribution of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Additional mediating factors may explain the remaining variation of socioeconomic status on head and neck cancer.

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Objective: To determine whether the presence of in vitro penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae increases the risk of clinical failure in children hospitalised with severe pneumonia and treated with penicillin/ampicillin. Design: Multicentre, prospective, observational study. Setting: 12 tertiary-care centres in three countries in Latin America. Patients: 240 children aged 3-59 months, hospitalised with severe pneumonia and known in vitro susceptibility of S pneumoniae. Intervention: Patients were treated with intravenous penicillin/ampicillin after collection of blood and, when possible, pleural fluid for culture. The minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) test was used to determine penicillin susceptibility of the pneumococcal strains isolated. Children were continuously monitored until discharge. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was treatment failure (using clinical criteria). Results: Overall treatment failure was 21%. After allowing for different potential confounders, there was no evidence of association between treatment failure and in vitro resistance of S pneumoniae to penicillin according to the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI)/National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) interpretative standards ((adj)RR = 1.03; 95%Cl: 0.49-1.90 for resistant S pneumoniae). Conclusions: Intravenous penicillin/ampicillin remains the drug of choice for treating penicillin-resistant pneumococcal pneumonia in areas where the MIC does not exceed 2 mu g/ml.

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Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings. Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in Sao Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in,25 and >59 years-old age strata (p < 0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. Conclusions/Significance. In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in Sao Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum.

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Background: Dermatomyositis (DM) and polymyositis (PM) are rare systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases with high fatality rates. There have been few population-based mortality studies of dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the world, and none have been conducted in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to employ multiple-cause of-death methodology in the analysis of trends in mortality related to dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and 2007. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which DM or PM was listed as a cause of death. The variables sex, age and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analysis were performed by chi-square and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, variance analysis and linear regression. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 23-year period, there were 318 DM-related deaths and 316 PM-related deaths. Overall, DM/PM was designated as an underlying cause in 55.2% and as an associated cause in 44.8%; among 634 total deaths females accounted for 71.5%. During the study period, age-and gender-adjusted DM mortality rates did not change significantly, although PM as an underlying cause and total mentions of PM trended lower (p < 0.05). The mean ages at death were 47.76 +/- 20.81 years for DM and 54.24 +/- 17.94 years for PM (p = 0.0003). For DM/PM, respectively, as underlying causes, the principal associated causes of death were as follows: pneumonia (in 43.8%/33.5%); respiratory failure (in 34.4%/32.3%); interstitial pulmonary diseases and other pulmonary conditions (in 28.9%/17.6%); and septicemia (in 22.8%/15.9%). For DM/PM, respectively, as associated causes, the following were the principal underlying causes of death: respiratory disorders (in 28.3%/26.0%); circulatory disorders (in 17.4%/20.5%); neoplasms (in 16.7%/13.7%); infectious and parasitic diseases (in 11.6%/9.6%); and gastrointestinal disorders (in 8.0%/4.8%). Of the 318 DM-related deaths, 36 involved neoplasms, compared with 20 of the 316 PM-related deaths (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Our study using multiple cause of deaths found that DM/PM were identified as the underlying cause of death in only 55.2% of the deaths, indicating that both diseases were underestimated in the primary mortality statistics. We observed a predominance of deaths in women and in older individuals, as well as a trend toward stability in the mortality rates. We have confirmed that the risk of death is greater when either disease is accompanied by neoplasm, albeit to lesser degree in individuals with PM. The investigation of the underlying and associated causes of death related to DM/PM broaden the knowledge of the natural history of both diseases and could help integrate mortality data for use in the evaluation of control measures for DM/PM.

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The most relevant clinical trials, assessing the role of glycemic control in reducing cardiovascular risk, are examined. The UKPDS was the first to address this issue. More recent trials (ACCORD, ADVANCE and VADT) are controversial and evidences did not support that strict glycemic control (reflected by normal glycated hemoglobin) exclusively is sufficient to reduce cardiovascular risk in complicated individuals with long-term type 2 diabetes mellitus. Some possible reasons for controversies are included.

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An analysis of the experimental conditions under which low-frequency (70-150 kHz) Alfven eigertmodes (AE) are excited during the monster sawtooth in Joint European Torus [F Romanelli et al, Proceedings of the 22nd IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, Geneva, Switzerland, 2008] is presented for the specific case of a discharge with ion cyclotron heating (5 MW) Using a simplified AE model for modes excited at the Alfven wave continuum maximum with geodesic corrections taken into account, the temporal evolution of the value of the safety factor q(0) at the magnetic axis is determined We describe a new scheme to determine the time variation of q(0) that works under conditions in which other standard diagnostics, such as the motional Stark effect do not give reliable results such as during a monster sawtooth [doi 10 1063/1 3494212]

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We determined the absolute branch of the T=2 superallowed decay of (32)Ar by detecting the beta(+)-delayed protons and gamma decays of the daughter state. We obtain b(SA)(beta)=(22.71 +/- 0.16)%, which represents the first determination of a proton branch to better than 1%. Using this branch along with the previously determined (32)Ar half-life and energy release, we determined ft=(1552 +/- 12) s for the superallowed decay. This ft value, together with the corrected Ft value extracted from previously known T=1 superallowed decays, yields a measurement of the isospin symmetry breaking correction in (32)Ar decay delta(exp)(C)=(2.1 +/- 0.8)%. This can be compared to a theoretical calculation delta(C)=(2.0 +/- 0.4)%. As by-products of this work, we determined the gamma and proton branches for the decay of the lowest T=2 state of (32)Cl, made a precise determination of the total proton branch and relative intensities of proton groups that leave (31)S in its first excited state and deduced an improved value for the (32)Cl mass.

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Background: The heritability of cardiovascular risk factors is expected to differ between populations because of the different distribution of environmental risk factors, as well as the genetic make-up of different human populations. Methods: The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate genetic and environmental influences on cardiovascular risk factor traits, using a variance component approach, by estimating the heritability of these traits in a sample of 1,666 individuals in 81 families ascertained randomly from a highly admixed population of a city in a rural area in Brazil. Results: Before adjustment for sex, age, age(2), and age x sex interaction, polygenic heritability of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were 15.0% and 16.4%, waist circumference 26.1%, triglycerides 25.7%, fasting glucose 32.8%, HDL-c 31.2%, total cholesterol 28.6%, LDL-c 26.3%, BMI 39.1%. Adjustment for covariates increased polygenic heritability estimates for all traits mainly systolic and diastolic blood pressure (25.9 and 26.2%, respectively), waist circumference (40.1%), and BMI (51.0%). Conclusion: Heritability estimates for cardiovascular traits in the Brazilian population are high and not significantly different from other studied worldwide populations. Mapping efforts to identify genetic loci associated with variability of these traits are warranted.

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Background -: Beta-2 adrenergic receptor gene polymorphisms Gln27Glu, Arg16Gly and Thr164Ile were suggested to have an effect in heart failure. We evaluated these polymorphisms relative to clinical characteristics and prognosis of alarge cohort of patients with heart failure of different etiologies. Methods -: We studied 501 patients with heart failure of different etiologies. Mean age was 58 years (standard deviation 14.4 years), 298 (60%) were men. Polymorphisms were identified by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results -: During the mean follow-up of 12.6 months (standard deviation 10.3 months), 188 (38%) patients died. Distribution of genotypes of polymorphism Arg16Gly was different relative to body mass index (chi(2) = 9.797; p = 0.04). Overall the probability of survival was not significantly predicted by genotypes of Gln27Glu, Arg16Gly, or Thr164Ile. Allele and haplotype analysis also did not disclose any significant difference regarding mortality. Exploratory analysis through classification trees pointed towards a potential association between the Gln27Glu polymorphism and mortality in older individuals. Conclusion -: In this study sample, we were not able to demonstrate an overall influence of polymorphisms Gln27Glu and Arg16Gly of beta-2 receptor gene on prognosis. Nevertheless, Gln27Glu polymorphism may have a potential predictive value in older individuals.

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Background: Persistent infection with oncogenic types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is the major risk factor for invasive cervical cancer (ICC), and non-European variants of HPV-16 are associated with an increased risk of persistence and ICC. HLA class II polymorphisms are also associated with genetic susceptibility to ICC. Our aim is to verify if these associations are influenced by HPV-16 variability. Methods: We characterized HPV-16 variants by PCR in 107 ICC cases, which were typed for HLA-DQA1, DRB1 and DQB1 genes and compared to 257 controls. We measured the magnitude of associations by logistic regression analysis. Results: European ( E), Asian-American ( AA) and African (Af) variants were identified. Here we show that inverse association between DQB1*05 ( adjusted odds ratio [ OR] = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-1.12]) and HPV-16 positive ICC in our previous report was mostly attributable to AA variant carriers ( OR = 0.27; 95% CI: 0.10-0.75). We observed similar proportions of HLA DRB1*1302 carriers in E-P positive cases and controls, but interestingly, this allele was not found in AA cases ( p = 0.03, Fisher exact test). A positive association with DRB1*15 was observed in both groups of women harboring either E ( OR = 2.99; 95% CI: 1.13-7.86) or AA variants ( OR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.00-5.46). There was an inverse association between DRB1*04 and ICC among women with HPV-16 carrying the 350T [83L] single nucleotide polymorphism in the E6 gene ( OR = 0.27; 95% CI: 0.08-0.96). An inverse association between DQB1*05 and cases carrying 350G (83V) variants was also found ( OR = 0.37; 95% CI: 0.15-0.89). Conclusion: Our results suggest that the association between HLA polymorphism and risk of ICC might be influenced by the distribution of HPV-16 variants.

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This study aimed to evaluate the effects of physical exercise on body weight reduction. For 12 weeks, 22 obese women (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) were submitted to a physical exercise program. At the beginning and at the final of the program there were evaluated: BMI, waist (WC) and hip circumferences (HC), and waist-hip ratio (WHR); body composition by DEXA; hemoglobin and erythroctye, total cholesterol, HDL and LDL, triacylglycerol and blood glucose; aerobic power. At the final of the program, aerobic power, hemoglobin and erythrocyte values were significantly increased, confirming the physical training effects. Related to anthropometric values, only the visceral fat (WC, HC and WHR) were reduced. The exercise shows to be an important supporting in the body weight loss program, not exactly promoting body weight loss, but lowering risk factors to develop chronic diseases.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk in elderly residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Brazil. The determination of the cutoff score for the Brazilian population is important for the comparison between Brazilian and international studies and establishment of guidelines for prevention of pressure ulcers in our health care facilities. This is the first study of its kind in Brazil. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted with 233 LTCF residents aged 60 and over who underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. Two groups of patients were considered: the total group (N = 233) and risk group (n = 94, total scores <= 18). Data from the first and last assessments were analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. The best results were obtained for the total group, with cutoff scores of 18 and 17, sensitivity of 75.9% and 74.1%, specificity of 70.3% and 75.4%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.79 and 0.81 at the first and last assessments, respectively. For the risk group, the cutoff scores of 16 (first assessment) and 13 (last assessment) were associated with a smaller AUC-ROC and, therefore, lower predictive accuracy. The Braden Scale showed good predictive validity in elderly LTCF residents. (Geriatr Nurs 2010;31:95-104)

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AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

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Introduction: The purpose of this study was to compare the frequency and severity of perineal trauma during spontaneous birth with or without perineal injections of hyaluronidase (HAase). Methods: A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial was conducted in a midwife-led, in-hospital birth center in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Primiparous women (N = 160) were randomly assigned to an experimental (n = 80) or control (n = 80) group. During the second stage of labor, women in the experimental group received an injection of 20.000 turbidity-reducing units of HAase in the posterior region of the perineum, and those in the control group received a placebo injection. The assessment of perineal outcome was performed by 2 independent nurse-midwives. A 1-tailed Fisher exact test was performed, and a P value < .025 was considered statistically significant. Results: Perineal integrity occurred in 34.2% of the experimental group and in 32.5% of the control group, which was not a statistically significant difference (P = .477). First-degree laceration was the most common trauma in the posterior region of the perineum in women in both groups (experimental = 56%, control = 42.6%). Severe perineal trauma occurred in 28.9% of the experimental group and 38.8% of the control group, which also was not a statistically significant difference (P =. 131). The depth of second-degree perineal lacerations in the experimental and control groups, measured by the Peri-Rule, was 1.9 cm and 2.3 cm, respectively. An episiotomy was performed in 11 women (experimental group = 3, control group = 8), and 4 (all in control group) had third-degree lacerations. Discussion: The use of injectable HAase did not increase the proportion of intact perineum and did not reduce the proportion of severe perineal trauma in our sample. J Midwifery Womens Health 2011; 56: 436-445 (C) 2011 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

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Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.