909 resultados para uncertain volatility


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Glucocorticoids are used in an attempt to reduce brain edema secondary to head injury. Nevertheless, their usefulness remains uncertain and contradictory. In a randomized study of 24 children with severe head injury, urinary free cortisol was measured by radioimmunoassay. Twelve patients (group 1) received dexamethasone and 12 (group 2) did not. All patients were treated with a standardized regimen. In group 1 there was complete suppression of endogenous cortisol production. In group 2 free cortisol was up to 20-fold higher than under basal conditions and reached maximum values on days 1-3. Since the excretion of cortisol in urine reflects the production rate closely and is not influenced by liver function and barbiturates, the results in group 2 show that the endogenous production of steroids is an adequate reaction to severe head injury. Exogenous glucocorticoids are thus unlikely to have any more beneficial effects than endogenous cortisol.

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The mature oocysts of Eimeria lepidosirenis n.sp. are described in faeces removed from the lower region of the intestine of a single specimen of the South American lungfish Lepidosiren paradoxa, from Belém, state of Pará, Amazonian Brazil. Oocysts with endogenous sporulation: spherical to slightly subspherical, 30.8 × 30.3 µm (28.1 × 25.9 -33.3 × 31.8), shape-index (ratio length/width) 1.0, n = 25. Oocyst wall a very thin, single layer approximately 0.74 µm thick, smooth, colourless, with no micropyle and rapidly breaking down to release the sporocysts. Oocyst residuum a bulky ovoid to spherical mass of approximately 20.0 × 15 µm, composed of fine granules and larger globules and enclosed by a very fine membrane: no polar bodies seen. Sporocysts 15.5 × 9.0 µm (14.5 × 8.0 16.0 × 9.0), shape index 1.7 (1.6-1.8), n = 30, ovoid, with one extremity rather pointed and with a very delicate Stieda body but no sub-Stieda body: sporocyst wall a single extremely thin layer with no valves. Sporocyst residuum a spherical to ovoid mass of approximately 5.0 × 4.0 µm, composed of fine granules and small globules and enclosed by a very fine membrane. Sporozoites strongly recurved at their ends and apparently with only a single refractile body. Site of development in the host uncertain: no evidence of endogenous stages was found in fresh scrapings and stained smears of the intestinal epithelium.

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Background: Respiratory care is universally recognised as useful, but its indications and practice vary markedly. In order to improve appropriateness of respiratory care in our hospital, we developed evidence-based local guidelines in a collaborative effort involving physiotherapists, physicians, and health services researchers. Methods: Recommendations were developed using the standardised RAND appropriateness method. A literature search was performed for the period between 1995 and 2008 based on terms associated with guidelines and with respiratory care. Publications were assessed according to the Oxford classification of quality of evidence. A working group prepared proposals for recommendations which were then independently rated by a multidisciplinary expert panel. All recommendations were then discussed in common and indications for procedures were rated confidentially a second time by the experts. Each indication for respiratory care was classified as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate, based on the panel median rating and the degree of intra-panel agreement. Results: Recommendations were formulated for the following procedures: non-invasive ventilation, continuous positive airway pressure, intermittent positive pressure breathing, intrapulmonary percussive ventilation, mechanical insufflation-exsufflation, incentive spirometry, positive expiratory pressure, nasotracheal suctioning, noninstrumental airway clearance techniques. Each recommendation referred to a particular medical condition, and was assigned to a hierarchical category based on the quality of evidence from literature supporting the recommendation and on the consensus of experts. Conclusion: Despite a marked heterogeneity of scientific evidence, the method used allowed us to develop commonly agreed local guidelines for respiratory care. In addition, this work fostered a closer relationship between physiotherapists and physicians in our institution.

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Tamoxifen (tam) is a widely used endocrine therapy in the treatment of early and advanced stage breast cancer in women and men. It is a pro-drug having weak affinity with the estrogen receptor and needs to be converted to its main metabolite, endoxifen (endox), to have full anticancer activity. Cytochrome 2D6 (CYP2D6) plays a major role in the metabolism of tamoxifen to endoxifen. It is genetically highly polymorphic and its activity influences profoundly the synthesis of endoxifen and potentially the efficacy of tamoxifen treatment. Genotyping is currently the most widely used approach in studies and also in clinical practice to categorize patients as poor- (PM), intermediate- (IM), extensive- (EM) and ultra rapid-metabolizers (UM). Some clinicians already use genotyping in order to tailor the endocrine therapy of their patients. Owing to the large inter-individual variations in concentrations of the active moitey due to genetic and non-genetic influences renders the predictive value of the test uncertain for an individual patient. A significant number of patients classified as EM or IM by genotyping have indeed relatively low endoxifen levels similar to PMs1. This suggests that genotyping is probably not the opti ma l meth o d f or predi cti ng end oxif en l evels.

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Background: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic disease with a wide variety of treatment options many of which are not evidence based. Supplementing available guidelines, which are often broadly defined, consensus-based and generally not tailored to specifically reflect the individual patient situation, we developed explicit appropriateness criteria to assist, and improve treatment decisions. Methods: We used the RAND appropriateness method which does not force consensus. An extensive literature review was compiled based on and supplementing, where necessary, the ECCO UC 2011 guidelines. EPATUC (endorsed by ECCO) was formed by 8 gastroenterologists, 2 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from throughout Europe. Clinical scenarios reflecting practice were rated on a 9-point scale from 1 (extremely inappropriate) to 9 (extremely appropriate), based on the expert's experience and the available literature. After extensive discussion, all scenarios were re-rated at a two-day panel meeting. Median and disagreement were used to categorize ratings into 3 categories: appropriate, uncertain and inappropriate. Results: 718 clinical scenarios were rated, structured in 13 main clinical presentations: not refractory (n=64) or refractory (n=33) proctitis, mild to moderate left-sided (n=72) or extensive (n=48) colitis, severe colitis (n=36), steroid-dependant colitis (n=36), steroid-refractory colitis (n=55), acute pouchitis (n=96), maintenance of remission (n=248), colorectal cancer prevention (n=9) and fulminant colitis (n=9). Overall, 100 indications were judged appropriate (14%), 129 uncertain (18%) and 489 inappropriate (68%). Disagreement between experts was very low (6%). Conclusion: For the very first time, explicit appropriateness criteria for therapy of UC were developed that allow both specific and rapid therapeutic decision making and prospective assessment of treatment appropriateness. Comparison of these detailed scenarios with patient profiles encountered in the Swiss IBD cohort study indicates good concordance. EPATUC criteria will be freely accessible on the internet (epatuc.ch).

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The place of technology in the development of coherent educational responses to environmental and socio-economic disruption is here placed under scrutiny. One emerging area of interest is the role of technology in addressing more complex learning futures, and more especially in facilitating individual and social resilience, or the ability to manage and overcome disruption. However, the extent to which higher education practitioners can utilise technology to this end is framed by their approaches to the curriculum, and the socio-cultural practices within which they are located. This paper discusses how open education might enable learners to engage with uncertainty through social action within a form of higher education that is more resilient to economic, environmental and energy-related disruption. It asks whether open higher education can be (re)claimed by users and communities within specific contexts and curricula, in order to engage with an uncertain world.

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Some experimental studies have suggested a beneficial effect of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor use on hepatic and renal cyst growth in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). However, the results of clinical studies are conflicting and the role of mTOR inhibitors is still uncertain. We report the case of a patient with ADPKD who underwent deceased kidney transplantation because of an end-stage renal disease. The evolution was uneventful with an excellent graft function under cyclosporine (CsA) monotherapy. Some years later, the patient developed a symptomatic hepatomegaly due to growth of cysts. CsA was replaced by sirolimus, an mTOR inhibitor, in order to reduce or control the increase in the cyst and liver volume. Despite the switch, the hepatic volume increased by 25% in two years. Finally sirolimus was stopped because of the lack of effect on hepatic cyst growth and the presence of sirolimus side effects. The interest of our case resides in the followup by MRI imaging during the mTOR inhibitor treatment and 15 months after the restart of the initial immunosuppressive therapy. This observation indicates that mTOR inhibitors did not have significant effect on cyst-associated hepatic growth in our patient, which is consistent with some results of recent large clinical studies.

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Capsule endoscopy (CE) offers state-of-the-art imaging of the small bowel. In Crohn's disease its clinical role is still uncertain. This report analyses the usefulness of CE in patients with suspected Cronh's disease, in patients with established Crohn's disease (when assessing severity, occult gastrointestinal bleeding and/or as a guide to therapy), in patients with inflammatory bowel disease unclassified (IBDU), and in individuals with ulcerative colitis. The first item in this group is the most important although there is no strong evidence to establish the position of CE in the diagnostic workup. In patients with established Crohn's disease, recently developed activity scores are promising tools for an accurate assessment of severity. As a guide to therapy, CE should be focused on patients with unexplained symptoms when other investigations are inconclusive. In postoperative Crohn's Disease, international consensus recommended considering CE only if ileocolonoscopy is contraindicated or unsuccessful. In the case of IBDU, studies have shown a significant proportion of patients reclassified with Crohn's disease. In this setting, CE could have a role determining small bowel involvement. The role of CE in ulcerative colitis is limited. Some authors advocate CE before colectomy for refractory cases in order to exclude Crohn's disease. In summary, CE offers a new horizon in inflammatory bowel disease, and a better knowledge of mucosal abnormalities that could offer a paradigm shift: changing from symptom-based disease activity estimation to direct mucosal healing monitoring. Nevertheless, randomized controlled studies are still needed to provide stronger evidence in this setting.

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Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

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BACKGROUND: Intracoronary administration of autologous bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (BM-MNC) may improve remodeling of the left ventricle (LV) after acute myocardial infarction. The optimal time point of administration of BM-MNC is still uncertain and has rarely been addressed prospectively in randomized clinical trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a multicenter study, we randomized 200 patients with large, successfully reperfused ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in a 1:1:1 pattern into an open-labeled control and 2 BM-MNC treatment groups. In the BM-MNC groups, cells were administered either early (ie, 5 to 7 days) or late (ie, 3 to 4 weeks) after acute myocardial infarction. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed at baseline and after 4 months. The primary end point was the change from baseline to 4 months in global LV ejection fraction between the 2 treatment groups and the control group. The absolute change in LV ejection fraction from baseline to 4 months was -0.4±8.8% (mean±SD; P=0.74 versus baseline) in the control group, 1.8±8.4% (P=0.12 versus baseline) in the early group, and 0.8±7.6% (P=0.45 versus baseline) in the late group. The treatment effect of BM-MNC as estimated by ANCOVA was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, -1.83 to 4.32; P=0.42) for the early therapy group and 0.55 (95% confidence interval, -2.61 to 3.71; P=0.73) for the late therapy group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and LV dysfunction after successful reperfusion, intracoronary infusion of BM-MNC at either 5 to 7 days or 3 to 4 weeks after acute myocardial infarction did not improve LV function at 4-month follow-up. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00355186.

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Genetic variation in immune response is probably involved in the progression of sepsis and mortality in septic patients. However, findings in the literature are sometimes conflicting or their significance is uncertain. Thus, we investigated the possible association between 12 polymorphisms located in the interleukin-6 (IL6), IL10, TLR-2, Toll-like receptor-4 (TLR-4), tumor necrosis factor-α and tumor necrosis factor-β (lymphotoxin α - LTA) genes and sepsis. Critically ill patients classified with sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock and 207 healthy volunteers were analyzed and genotyped. Seven of the nine polymorphisms showed similar distributions in allele frequencies between patients and controls. Interestingly, our data suggest that the IL10-819 and TLR-2 polymorphisms may be potential predictors of sepsis.

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Neuroimaging with diffusion-weighted imaging is routinely used for clinical diagnosis/prognosis. Its quantitative parameter, the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), is thought to reflect water mobility in brain tissues. After injury, reduced ADC values are thought to be secondary to decreases in the extracellular space caused by cell swelling. However, the physiological mechanisms associated with such changes remain uncertain. Aquaporins (AQPs) facilitate water diffusion through the plasma membrane and provide a unique opportunity to examine the molecular mechanisms underlying water mobility. Because of this critical role and the recognition that brain AQP4 is distributed within astrocytic cell membranes, we hypothesized that AQP4 contributes to the regulation of water diffusion and variations in its expression would alter ADC values in normal brain. Using RNA interference in the rodent brain, we acutely knocked down AQP4 expression and observed that a 27% AQP4-specific silencing induced a 50% decrease in ADC values, without modification of tissue histology. Our results demonstrate that ADC values in normal brain are modulated by astrocytic AQP4. These findings have major clinical relevance as they suggest that imaging changes seen in acute neurologic disorders such as stroke and trauma are in part due to changes in tissue AQP4 levels.

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This paper describes a new reliable method, based on modal interval analysis (MIA) and set inversion (SI) techniques, for the characterization of solution sets defined by quantified constraints satisfaction problems (QCSP) over continuous domains. The presented methodology, called quantified set inversion (QSI), can be used over a wide range of engineering problems involving uncertain nonlinear models. Finally, an application on parameter identification is presented

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Empirical studies have recently pointed towards a socio-structural category largely overlooked in social inequality research: the dynamic positions of households adjacent to those of the poor and yet not representing those of the established, more prosperous positions in society. These results suggest that the population in this category fluctuates into and out of poverty more often than moving into and out of secure prosperity. This category - still lacking theoretical conceptualization - is characterized by both precariousness and a certain degree of prosperity; despite a restricted and uncertain living standard it holds a range of opportunities for action. We seek analytical elements to conceptualize 'precarious prosperity' for comparative empirical research by subjecting various concepts of social inequality research to critical scrutiny. We then operationally define 'precarious prosperity' to screen for this population in three countries. Based on qualitative interviews with households in precarious prosperity, we present first analyses of perceptions and household strategies that underline the relevance of the concept in different countries.

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BACKGROUND: Safety and economic issues have increasingly raised concerns about the long term use of immunomodulators or biologics as maintenance therapies for Crohn's disease (CD). Despite emerging evidence suggesting that stopping therapy might be an option for low risk patients, criteria identifying target groups for this strategy are missing, and there is a lack of recommendations regarding this question. METHODS: Multidisciplinary European expert panel (EPACT-II Update) rated the appropriateness of stopping therapy in CD patients in remission. We used the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method, and included the following variables: presence of clinical and/or endoscopic remission, CRP level, fecal calprotectin level, prior surgery for CD, and duration of remission (1, 2 or 4 years). RESULTS: Before considering withdrawing therapy, the prerequisites of a C-reactive protein (CRP) and fecal calprotectin measurement were rated as "appropriate" by the panellists, whereas a radiological evaluation was considered as being of "uncertain" appropriateness. Ileo-colonoscopy was considered appropriate 1 year after surgery or after 4 years in the absence of prior surgery. Stopping azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine or methotrexate mono-therapy was judged appropriate after 4 years of clinical remission. Withdrawing anti-TNF mono-therapy was judged appropriate after 2 years in case of clinical and endoscopic remission, and after 4 years of clinical remission. In case of combined therapy, anti-TNF withdrawal, while continuing the immunomodulator, was considered appropriate after two years of clinical remission. CONCLUSION: A multidisciplinary European expert panel proposed for the first time treatment stopping rules for patients in clinical and/or endoscopic remission, with normal CRP and fecal calprotectin levels.