An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

A real-time PCR assay for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by LightCycler

The detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now recognized as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing infection by the organism. In this Study 152 urine specimens were examined for N. gonorrhoeae by a real-time PCR method using the LightCycler platform and results were compared to an in-house PCR assay using an ELISA-based detection method. N. gonorrhoeae DNA was detected in 29 (19%) specimens by LightCycler PCR (LC-PCR) and in 31 (20%) specimens by the in house PCR method. The LightCycler assay proved to be specific and 94% sensitive when compared to the in house PCR method. These features combined with the rapid turn-around time for results makes the LC-PCR particularly suitable for the detection of N. gonorrhoeae in a routine clinical laboratory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Oral disease in animals: The Australian perspective. Isolation and characterisation of black-pigmented bacteria from the oral cavity of marsupials

A wide range of animals suffer from periodontal disease. However, there is very little reported on disease and oral micro-biota of Australian animals. Therefore, the oral cavity of 90 marsupials was examined for oral health status. Plaque samples were collected from the subgingival margins using curettes; or swabs. Plaque samples were plated onto. non-selective trypticase soy agar plates, selective trypticase soy agar, non-selective and selective Wilkens Chalgrens, Agar. Plates were incubated in an anaerobic atmosphere and examined after 7-14 days for the presence of black-brown-pigmented colonies. A combination of morphological and biochemical tests were used (colonial morphology, pigmentation, aerobic growth, Gram reaction, fluorescence under long-wave UV light (360 nm), production of catalase, enzymatic activity with fluorogenic substrates and haemagglutination of sheep red cells) to identify these organisms. Black-pigmented bacteria were cultivated from the plaque of 32 animals including six eastern grey kangaroos, a musky rat kangaroo, a whiptail and a red-necked wallaby, 18 koalas, a bandicoot and five brushtail possums. No black-pigmented colonies were cultivated from squirrel or sugar gliders or quokkas or from marsupial mice. The majority of isolates were identified as Porphyromonas gingivalis-like species with the higher prevalence of isolation from the oral cavity of macropods (the kangaroos and wallabies). Oral diseases, such as gingivitis can be found in native Australian animals with older koalas having an increase in disease indicators and black-pigmented bacteria. Non-selective Wilkens Chalgren Agar was the medium of choice for the isolation of black-pigmented bacteria. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Profiling the Senior Traveler: An Australia Perspective

Recently, the behavior of senior travelers has become an important area of interest because of its market size and potential for growth. This study describes a study profiling senior travelers according to their demographic and psychographic characteristics. Six market segments were used to highlight the differences that exist in terms of holiday attractions, travel motivations, and information sources used among senior travelers when planning and choosing a holiday. Seniors are shown not to be a uniform conservative market, which has implications for marketing and product development.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A Hermeneutic Case Reconstruction of a published first-person narrative

Hermeneutic Case Reconstruction (Rosenthal, 1993) is a systematic method of analysing biographical self-presentations from an interpretivist perspective. The method consists of five major analytic steps. The first is an analysis of the biographical data that can stand independently of the narrator’s perspective. ‘Objective’ data is extracted from the text or interview transcript and ordered chronologically. Secondly, a thematic field analysis is undertaken in which the data is divided into separate units according to the type of text used, whilst keeping the sequence of these texts units intact. In this step, hypotheses are developed regarding the potential significance of the style and sequence of the events presented. The product of this second step is a reconstruction of the life story. A reconstruction of the life history then follows as the third step. The purpose of this step is to generate hypotheses about the meanings that biographical experiences might have had for the narrator at the time they occurred, given the sociocultural context in which they occurred. In the fourth step, microanalysis of individual text segments is undertaken, in which all hypotheses generated in the earlier steps are tested against the text for support or refutation. The final step consists of a contrastive comparison of the life history and life story. The life story and life history are compared to determine, for example, which aspects of the narrator’s experience have been emphasised or minimised. Through this comparison, the selective process is highlighted. This is referred to as the case structure. This paper describes an application of this method to a published first-person narrative of a woman’s experiences of sustaining a brain injury in a motor vehicle accident.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Cleaning symbioses from the parasites' perspective

Cleaning behaviour has generally been viewed from the cleaner or client's point of view. Few studies, however, have examined cleaning behaviour from the parasites' perspective, yet they are the equally-important third players in such associations. All three players are likely to have had their evolution affected by the association. As cleaner organisms are important predators of parasites, cleaners are likely to have an important effect on their prey. Little, however, is known of how parasites are affected by cleaning associations and the strategies that parasites use in response to cleaners. I examine here what parasites are involved in cleaning interactions, the effect cleaners have on parasites, the potential counter-adaptations that parasites have evolved against the predatory activities of cleaner organisms, the potential influence of cleaners on the life history traits of parasites, and other factors affected by cleaners. I have found that a wide range of ectoparasites from diverse habitats have been reported to interact with a wide range of cleaner organisms. Some of the life history traits of parasites are consistent with the idea that they are in response to cleaner predation. It is clear, however, that although many cleaning systems exist their ecological role is largely unexplored. This has likely been hindered by our lack of information on the parasites involved in cleaning interactions.

The breeding-season diet of wedge-tailed eagles (Aquila audax) in western New South Wales and the influence of Rabbit Calicivirus Disease

A total of 2071 individual prey items were identified from 34 active and 55 inactive wedge-tailed eagle nests following the 1995, 1996 and 1997 breeding seasons. Overall, the eagle's diet was comparable to that reported in other studies within semi-arid regions, with rabbits, reptiles and macropods accounting for 47.8, 22.6 and 13.7% of prey items, respectively. In spring 1996 rabbit calicivirus moved into the study area, resulting in a 44-78% reduction in rabbit abundance (Sharp et al. 2001). An index was developed to enable the time since death for individual prey items to be approximated and a historical perspective of the eagle's diet to be constructed. Rabbits constituted 56-69% of dietary items collected during the pre-rabbit calicivirus disease (RCD) samples, but declined to 31% and 16% in the two post-RCD samples. A reciprocal trend was observed for the proportion of reptiles in the diet, which increased from 8-21% of pre-RCD dietary items to 49-54% after the advent of RCD. Similarly, the proportion of avian prey items was observed to increase in the post-RCD samples. These data suggested that prey switching may have occurred following the RCD epizootic. However, a lack of data on the relative abundances of reptiles and birds prevented an understanding of the eagle's functional responses to be developed and definitive conclusions to be drawn. Nevertheless, the eagles were observed to modify their diet to the change in rabbit densities by consuming larger quantities of native prey species.