Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

Modelling diffusion of innovations in a social network

A simple model of diffusion of innovations in a social network with upgrading costs is introduced. Agents are characterized by a single real variable, their technological level. According to local information, agents decide whether to upgrade their level or not, balancing their possible benefit with the upgrading cost. A critical point where technological avalanches display a power-law behavior is also found. This critical point is characterized by a macroscopic observable that turns out to optimize technological growth in the stationary state. Analytical results supporting our findings are found for the globally coupled case.

MERCURY QUANTIFICATION IN SOILS USING THERMAL DESORPTION AND ATOMIC ABSORPTION SPECTROMETRY: PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE METHOD OF ANALYSIS

Despite the considerable environmental importance of mercury (Hg), given its high toxicity and ability to contaminate large areas via atmospheric deposition, little is known about its activity in soils, especially tropical soils, in comparison with other heavy metals. This lack of information about Hg arises because analytical methods for determination of Hg are more laborious and expensive compared to methods for other heavy metals. The situation is even more precarious regarding speciation of Hg in soils since sequential extraction methods are also inefficient for this metal. The aim of this paper is to present a technique of thermal desorption associated with atomic absorption spectrometry, TDAAS, as an efficient tool for quantitative determination of Hg in soils. The method consists of the release of Hg by heating, followed by its quantification by atomic absorption spectrometry. It was developed by constructing calibration curves in different soil samples based on increasing volumes of standard Hg2+ solutions. Performance, accuracy, precision, and quantification and detection limit parameters were evaluated. No matrix interference was detected. Certified reference samples and comparison with a Direct Mercury Analyzer, DMA (another highly recognized technique), were used in validation of the method, which proved to be accurate and precise.

Thermal evolution of gene expression profiles in Drosophila subobscura

Background: Despite its pervasiveness, the genetic basis of adaptation resulting in variation directly or indirectly related to temperature (climatic) gradients is poorly understood. By using 3-fold replicated laboratory thermal stocks covering much of the physiologically tolerable temperature range for the temperate (i.e., cold tolerant) species Drosophila subobscura we have assessed whole-genome transcriptional responses after three years of thermal adaptation, when the populations had already diverged for inversion frequencies, pre-adult life history components, and morphological traits. Total mRNA from each population was compared to a reference pool mRNA in a standard, highly replicated two-colour competitive hybridization experiment using cDNA microarrays.Results: A total of 306 (6.6%) cDNA clones were identified as 'differentially expressed' (following a false discovery rate correction) after contrasting the two furthest apart thermal selection regimes (i.e., 13°C vs . 22°C), also including four previously reported candidate genes for thermotolerance in Drosophila (Hsp26, Hsp68, Fst, and Treh). On the other hand, correlated patterns of gene expression were similar in cold- and warm-adapted populations. Analysis of functional categories defined by the Gene Ontology project point to an overrepresentation of genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism, nucleic acids metabolism and regulation of transcription among other categories. Although the location of differently expressed genes was approximately at random with respect to chromosomes, a physical mapping of 88 probes to the polytene chromosomes of D. subobscura has shown that a larger than expected number mapped inside inverted chromosomal segments.Conclusion: Our data suggest that a sizeable number of genes appear to be involved in thermal adaptation in Drosophila, with a substantial fraction implicated in metabolism. This apparently illustrates the formidable challenge to understanding the adaptive evolution of complex trait variation. Furthermore, some clustering of genes within inverted chromosomal sections was detected. Disentangling the effects of inversions will be obviously required in any future approach if we want to identify the relevant candidate genes.

Task 6: Material Thermal Input for Iowa Materials, May 2008

The present research project was designed to determine thermal properties, such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and thermal conductivity, of Iowa concrete pavement materials. These properties are required as input values by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). In this project, a literature review was conducted to determine the factors that affect thermal properties of concrete and the existing prediction equations for CTE and thermal conductivity of concrete. CTE tests were performed on various lab and field samples of portland cement concrete (PCC) at the Iowa Department of Transportation and Iowa State University. The variations due to the test procedure, the equipment used, and the consistency of field batch materials were evaluated. The test results showed that the CTE variations due to test procedure and batch consistency were less than 5%, and the variation due to the different equipment was less than 15%. Concrete CTE values were significantly affected by different types of coarse aggregate. The CTE values of Iowa concrete made with limestone+graval, quartzite, dolomite, limestone+dolomite, and limestone were 7.27, 6.86, 6.68, 5.83, and 5.69 microstrain/oF (13.08, 12.35, 12.03, 10.50, and 10.25 microstrain/oC), respectively, which were all higher than the default value of 5.50 microstrain/oF in the MEPDG program. The thermal conductivity of a typical Iowa PCC mix and an asphalt cement concrete (ACC) mix (both with limestone as coarse aggregate) were tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory in Skokie, Illinois. The thermal conductivity was 0.77 Btu/hr•ft•oF (1.33 W/m•K) for PCC and 1.21 Btu/hr•ft•oF (2.09 W/m•K) for ACC, which are different from the default values (1.25 Btu/hr•ft•oF or 2.16 W/m•K for PCC and 0.67 Btu/hr•ft•oF or 1.16 W/m•K for ACC) in the MEPDG program. The investigations onto the CTE of ACC and the effects of concrete materials (such as cementitious material and aggregate types) and mix proportions on concrete thermal conductivity are recommended to be considered in future studies.

Thermal energetics and torpor in the common pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus pipistrellus (Vespertilionidae: Mammalia).

Rate of metabolism and body temperature were studied between -6°C and 38°C in the common pipistrelle bat Pipistrellus pipistrellus (Vespertilionidae), a European species lying close to the lower end of the mammalian size range (body mass 4.9±0.8g, N=28). Individuals maintained only occasionally a normothermic body temperature averaging 35.4±1.1°C (N=4) and often showed torpor during metabolic runs. The thermoneutral zone was found above 33°C, and basal rate of metabolism averaged 7.6±0.8mL O(2)h(-1) (N=28), which is 69% of the value predicted on the basis of body mass. Minimal wet thermal conductance was 161% of the expected value. During torpor, the rate of metabolism was related exponentially to body temperature with a Q(10) value of 2.57. Torpid bats showed intermittent ventilation, with the frequency of ventilatory cycles increasing exponentially with body temperature. Basal rate of metabolism (BMR) varied significantly with season and body temperature, but not with body mass. It was lower before the hibernation period than during the summer. The patterns observed are generally consistent with those exhibited by other vespertilionids of temperate regions. However, divergences occur with previous measurements on European pipistrelles, and the causes of the seasonal variation in BMR, which has only rarely been searched for among vespertilionids, remain to be examined.

Material Thermal Inputs of Iowa Materials for MEPDG, 2011

The thermal properties of concrete materials, such as coeffi cient of thermal expansion (CTE), thermal conductivity, and heat capacity, are required by the MEPDG program as the material inputs for pavement design. However, a limited amount of test data is available on the thermal properties of concrete in Iowa. The default values provided by the MEPDG program may not be suitable for Iowa concrete, since aggregate characteristics have signifi cant infl uence on concrete thermal properties.

Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants.

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.

Thermal resonance in signal transmission

We use temperature tuning to control signal propagation in simple one-dimensional arrays of masses connected by hard anharmonic springs and with no local potentials. In our numerical model a sustained signal is applied at one site of a chain immersed in a thermal environment and the signal-to-noise ratio is measured at each oscillator. We show that raising the temperature can lead to enhanced signal propagation along the chain, resulting in thermal resonance effects akin to the resonance observed in arrays of bistable systems.

Breathers and thermal relaxation in Fermi-Pasta-Ulam arrays

Breather stability and longevity in thermally relaxing nonlinear arrays depend sensitively on their interactions with other excitations. We review numerical results for the relaxation of breathers in Fermi¿Pasta¿Ulam arrays, with a specific focus on the different relaxation channels and their dependence on the interparticle interactions, dimensionality, initial condition, and system parameters