Theory and Practice in Sustainability Science: Influence of Urban Form on the Urban Heat Island and Implications for Urban Systems

As the world population continues to grow past seven billion people and global challenges continue to persist including resource availability, biodiversity loss, climate change and human well-being, a new science is required that can address the integrated nature of these challenges and the multiple scales on which they are manifest. Sustainability science has emerged to fill this role. In the fifteen years since it was first called for in the pages of Science, it has rapidly matured, however its place in the history of science and the way it is practiced today must be continually evaluated. In Part I, two chapters address this theoretical and practical grounding. Part II transitions to the applied practice of sustainability science in addressing the urban heat island (UHI) challenge wherein the climate of urban areas are warmer than their surrounding rural environs. The UHI has become increasingly important within the study of earth sciences given the increased focus on climate change and as the balance of humans now live in urban areas.

In Chapter 2 a novel contribution to the historical context of sustainability is argued. Sustainability as a concept characterizing the relationship between humans and nature emerged in the mid to late 20th century as a response to findings used to also characterize the Anthropocene. Emerging from the human-nature relationships that came before it, evidence is provided that suggests Sustainability was enabled by technology and a reorientation of world-view and is unique in its global boundary, systematic approach and ambition for both well being and the continued availability of resources and Earth system function. Sustainability is further an ambition that has wide appeal, making it one of the first normative concepts of the Anthropocene.

Despite its widespread emergence and adoption, sustainability science continues to suffer from definitional ambiguity within the academe. In Chapter 3, a review of efforts to provide direction and structure to the science reveals a continuum of approaches anchored at either end by differing visions of how the science interfaces with practice (solutions). At one end, basic science of societally defined problems informs decisions about possible solutions and their application. At the other end, applied research directly affects the options available to decision makers. While clear from the literature, survey data further suggests that the dichotomy does not appear to be as apparent in the minds of practitioners.

In Chapter 4, the UHI is first addressed at the synoptic, mesoscale. Urban climate is the most immediate manifestation of the warming global climate for the majority of people on earth. Nearly half of those people live in small to medium sized cities, an understudied scale in urban climate research. Widespread characterization would be useful to decision makers in planning and design. Using a multi-method approach, the mesoscale UHI in the study region is characterized and the secular trend over the last sixty years evaluated. Under isolated ideal conditions the findings indicate a UHI of 5.3 ± 0.97 °C to be present in the study area, the magnitude of which is growing over time.

Although urban heat islands (UHI) are well studied, there remain no panaceas for local scale mitigation and adaptation methods, therefore continued attention to characterization of the phenomenon in urban centers of different scales around the globe is required. In Chapter 5, a local scale analysis of the canopy layer and surface UHI in a medium sized city in North Carolina, USA is conducted using multiple methods including stationary urban sensors, mobile transects and remote sensing. Focusing on the ideal conditions for UHI development during an anticyclonic summer heat event, the study observes a range of UHI intensity depending on the method of observation: 8.7 °C from the stationary urban sensors; 6.9 °C from mobile transects; and, 2.2 °C from remote sensing. Additional attention is paid to the diurnal dynamics of the UHI and its correlation with vegetation indices, dewpoint and albedo. Evapotranspiration is shown to drive dynamics in the study region.

Finally, recognizing that a bridge must be established between the physical science community studying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the planning community and decision makers implementing urban form and development policies, Chapter 6 evaluates multiple urban form characterization methods. Methods evaluated include local climate zones (LCZ), national land cover database (NCLD) classes and urban cluster analysis (UCA) to determine their utility in describing the distribution of the UHI based on three standard observation types 1) fixed urban temperature sensors, 2) mobile transects and, 3) remote sensing. Bivariate, regression and ANOVA tests are used to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the NLCD classes are best correlated to the UHI intensity and distribution in the study area. Further, while the UCA method is not useful directly, the variables included in the method are predictive based on regression analysis so the potential for better model design exists. Land cover variables including albedo, impervious surface fraction and pervious surface fraction are found to dominate the distribution of the UHI in the study area regardless of observation method.

Chapter 7 provides a summary of findings, and offers a brief analysis of their implications for both the scientific discourse generally, and the study area specifically. In general, the work undertaken does not achieve the full ambition of sustainability science, additional work is required to translate findings to practice and more fully evaluate adoption. The implications for planning and development in the local region are addressed in the context of a major light-rail infrastructure project including several systems level considerations like human health and development. Finally, several avenues for future work are outlined. Within the theoretical development of sustainability science, these pathways include more robust evaluations of the theoretical and actual practice. Within the UHI context, these include development of an integrated urban form characterization model, application of study methodology in other geographic areas and at different scales, and use of novel experimental methods including distributed sensor networks and citizen science.

(Table 1) Temperature and foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios of samples off Japan

We studied Mg/Ca in high-Mg, shallow-water benthic foraminifera in culture and in samples from natural environments, in order to evaluate the expression of latitudinal and seasonal temperature variability in Mg/Ca in their tests. We cultured Planoglabratella opercularis (d'Orbigny) and Quinqueloculina yabei Asano under controlled temperature (10°-25°C) and salinity (30-38) conditions. Both species show a linear correlation between Mg/Ca and temperature, but they differ in temperature sensitivity. Salinity does not significantly influence Mg/Ca. In the samples collected in nature, Mg/Ca and seawater temperatures are positively correlated, but there are more complexities than in the records for cultured specimens due to such factors as seasonal fluctuations in temperature. We conclude that Mg/Ca ratios in monospecific benthic foraminiferal samples may be used as a reliable temperature proxy, if the lifetime of the species is taken into account.

(Fig. 1D, 3E) Sea surface temperature and alkenone C37:4 for sediment core MD01-2444 during the penultimate glaciation

Past glacials can be thought of as natural experiments in which variations in boundary conditions influenced the character of climate change. However, beyond the last glacial, an integrated view of orbital- and millennial-scale changes and their relation to the record of glaciation has been lacking. Here, we present a detailed record of variations in the land-ocean system from the Portuguese margin during the penultimate glacial and place it within the framework of ice-volume changes, with particular reference to European ice-sheet dynamics. The interaction of orbital- and millennial-scale variability divides the glacial into an early part with warmer and wetter overall conditions and prominent climate oscillations, a transitional mid-part, and a late part with more subdued changes as the system entered a maximum glacial state. The most extreme event occurred in the mid-part and was associated with melting of the extensive European ice sheet and maximum discharge from the Fleuve Manche river. This led to disruption of the meridional overturning circulation, but not a major activation of the bipolar seesaw. In addition to stadial duration, magnitude of freshwater forcing, and background climate, the evidence also points to the influence of the location of freshwater discharges on the extent of interhemispheric heat transport.

Table 1. pH, Temperature, conductivity and hydrochemistry of samples

Carbon dioxide deep geological storage, especially in deep saline aquifers, is one of the preferred technological options to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gases emissions. Thus, in the last decade, studies characterising the behaviour of potential CO2 deep geological storage sites along with thorough safety assessments have been considered essential in order to minimise the risks associated with these sites. The study of natural analogues represents the best source of reliable information about the expected hydrogeochemical processes involved in the CO2 storage in such deep saline aquifers. In this work, a comprehensive study of the hydrogeochemical features and processes taking place at the natural analogue of the Alicún de las Torres thermal system (Betic Cordillera) has been conducted. Thus, the main water/CO2/rock interaction processes occurring at the thermal system have been identified, quantified and modelled, and a principle conclusion is that the hydrogeochemical evolution of the thermal system is controlled by a global dedolomitization process triggered by gypsum dissolution. This geochemical process generates a different geochemical environment to that which would result from the exclusive dissolution of carbonates from the deep aquifer, which is generally considered as the direct result of CO2 injection in a deep carbonate aquifer. Therefore, discounting of the dedolomitization process in any CO2 deep geological storage may lead to erroneous conclusions. This process will also influence the porosity evolution of the CO2 storage formation, which is a very relevant parameter when evaluating a reservoir for CO2 storage. The geothermometric calculation performed in this work leads to estimate that the thermal water reservoir is located between 650 and 800 m depth, which is very close to the minimum required to inject CO2 in a deep geological storage. It is clear that the proper characterisation of the features and hydrogeochemical processes taking place at a natural system analogous to a man-made deep geological storage will provide useful conceptual, semi-quantitative and even quantitative information about the processes and consequences that may occur at the artificial storage system.

Winter sea surface temperature reconstruction from planktic foraminiferal transfer functions in the northeastern Arabian Sea over the last two millennia

The Indian monsoon system is an important climate feature of the northern Indian Ocean. Small variations of the wind and precipitation patterns have fundamental influence on the societal, agricultural, and economic development of India and its neighboring countries. To understand current trends, sensitivity to forcing, or natural variation, records beyond the instrumental period are needed. However, high-resolution archives of past winter monsoon variability are scarce. One potential archive of such records are marine sediments deposited on the continental slope in the NE Arabian Sea, an area where present-day conditions are dominated by the winter monsoon. In this region, winter monsoon conditions lead to distinctive changes in surface water properties, affecting marine plankton communities that are deposited in the sediment. Using planktic foraminifera as a sensitive and well-preserved plankton group, we first characterize the response of their species distribution on environmental gradients from a dataset of surface sediment samples in the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. Transfer functions for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions were applied to a decadal-scale record of assemblage counts from the Pakistan Margin spanning the last 2000?years. The reconstructed temperature record reveals an intensification of winter monsoon intensity near the year 100 CE. Prior to this transition, winter temperatures were >1.5°C warmer than today. Conditions similar to the present seem to have established after 450 CE, interrupted by a singular event near 950 CE with warmer temperatures and accordingly weak winter monsoon. Frequency analysis revealed significant 75-, 40-, and 37-year cycles, which are known from decadal- to centennial-scale resolution records of Indian summer monsoon variability and interpreted as solar irradiance forcing. Our first independent record of Indian winter monsoon activity confirms that winter and summer monsoons were modulated on the same frequency bands and thus indicates that both monsoon systems are likely controlled by the same driving force.

Sea-surface temperature and salinity reconstruction for sediment core GeoB5844-2

We present high-resolution paleoceanographic records of surface and deep water conditions within the northern Red Sea covering the last glacial maximum and termination I using alkenone paleothermometry, stable oxygen isotopes, and sediment compositional data. Paleoceanographic records in the restricted desert-surrounded northern Red Sea are strongly affected by the stepwise sea level rise and appear to record and amplify well-known millennial-scale climate events from the North Atlantic realm. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), sea surface temperatures were about 4°C cooler than the late Holocene. Pronounced coolings associated with Heinrich event 1 (~2°C below the LGM level) and the Younger Dryas imply strong atmospheric teleconnections to the North Atlantic. Owing to the restricted exchange with the Indian Ocean, Red Sea salinity is particularly sensitive to changes in global sea level. Paleosalinities exceeded 50 psu during the LGM. A pronounced freshening of the surface waters is associated with the meltwater peaks MWP1a and MWP1b owing to an increased surface-near inflow of "normal" saline water from the Indian Ocean. Vertical delta18O gradients are also increased during these phases, indicating stronger surface water stratification. The combined effect of deglacial changes in sea surface temperature and salinity on water column stratification initiated the formation of two sapropel layers, which were deposited under almost anoxic condition in a stagnant water body.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on planktonic foraminifera of surface sediments and sediment cores off Iberia

Quantitative and qualitative analyses of planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from 134 core-top sediment samples collected along the western Iberian margin were used to assess the latitudinal and longitudinal changes in surface water conditions and to calibrate a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) transfer function for this seasonal coastal upwelling region. Q-mode factor analysis performed on relative abundances yielded three factors that explain 96% of the total variance: factor 1 (50%) is exclusively defined by Globigerina bulloides, the most abundant and widespread species, and reflects the modern seasonal (May to September) coastal upwelling areas; factor 2 (32%) is dominated by Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dextral) and Globorotalia inflata and seems to be associated with the Portugal Current, the descending branch of the North Atlantic Drift; factor 3 (14%) is defined by the tropical-sub-tropical species Globigerinoides ruber (white), Globigerinoides trilobus trilobus, and G. inflata and mirrors the influence of the winter-time eastern branch of the Azores Current. In conjunction with satellite-derived SST for summer and winter seasons integrated over an 18 year period the regional foraminiferal data set is used to calibrate a SST transfer function using Imbrie & Kipp, MAT and SIMMAX(ndw) techniques. Similar predicted errors (RMSEP), correlation coefficients, and residuals' deviation from SST estimated for both techniques were observed for both seasons. All techniques appear to underestimate SST off the southern Iberia margin, an area mainly occupied by warm waters where upwelling occurs only occasionally, and overestimate SST on the northern part of the west coast of the Iberia margin, where cold waters are present nearly all year round. The comparison of these regional calibrations with former Atlantic and North Atlantic calibrations for two cores, one of which is influenced by upwelling, reveals that the regional one attests more robust paleo-SSTs than for the other approaches.

Stone temperature and moisture variability under temperate environmental conditions: implications for sandstone weathering

Temperature and moisture conditions are key drivers of stone weathering processes in both natural and built environments. Given their importance in the breakdown of stone, a detailed understanding of their temporal and spatial variability is central to understanding present-day weathering behaviour and for predicting how climate change may influence the nature and rates of future stone decay.
Subsurface temperature and moisture data are reported from quarry fresh Peakmoor Sandstone samples exposed during summer (June–July) and late autumn / early winter (October–December) in a mid-latitude, temperate maritime environment. These data demonstrate that the subsurface thermal response of sandstone comprises numerous short-term (minutes), low magnitude fluctuations superimposed upon larger-scale diurnal heating and cooling cycles with distinct aspect-related differences. The short-term fluctuations create conditions in the outer 5–10 mm of stone that are much more ‘energetic’ in comparison to the more subdued thermal cycling that occurs deeper within the sandstone samples.
Data show that moisture dynamics are equally complex with a near-surface region (5–10 mm) in which frequent moisture cycling takes place and this, combined with the thermal dynamism exhibited by the same region may have significant implications for the nature and rate of weathering activity. Data indicate that moisture input from rainfall, particularly when it is wind-driven, can travel deep into the stone where it can prolong the time of wetness. This most often occurs during wetter winter months when moisture input is high and evaporative loss is low but can happen at any time during the year when the hydraulic connection between near-surface and deeper regions of the stone is disrupted with subsequent loss of moisture from depth slowing as it becomes reliant on vapour diffusion alone.
These data illustrate the complexity of temperature and moisture conditions in sandstone exposed to the ‘moderate’ conditions of a temperate maritime environment. They highlight differences in thermal and moisture cycling between near-surface (5–10 mm) and deeper regions within the stone and contribute towards a better understanding of the development of structural and mineralogical heterogeneity between the stone surface and substrate.

Application of low temperature plasmas for restoration/conservation of archaeological objects

The low-temperature low-pressure hydrogen based plasmas were used to study the influence of processes and discharge conditions on corrosion removal. The capacitive coupled RF discharge in the continuous or pulsed regime was used at operating pressure of 100-200 Pa. Plasma treatment was monitored by optical emission spectroscopy. To be able to study influence of various process parameters, the model corroded samples with and without sandy incrustation were prepared. The SEM-EDX analyzes were carried out to verify corrosion removal efficiency. Experimental conditions were optimized for the selected most frequent materials of original metallic archaeological objects (iron, bronze, copper, and brass). Chlorides removal is based on hydrogen ion reactions while oxides are removed mainly by neutral species interactions. A special focus was kept for the samples temperature because it was necessary to avoid any metallographic changes in the material structure. The application of higher power pulsed regime with low duty cycle seems be the best treatment regime. The low pressure hydrogen plasma is not applicable for objects with a very broken structure or for nonmetallic objects due to the non-uniform heat stress. Due to this fact, the new developed plasmas generated in liquids were applied on selected original archaeological glass materials.

Determining day length and temperature regulation of flowering: a molecular and modelling approach

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The influence of photon excitation and proton irradiation on the luminescence properties of yttria stabilized zirconia doped with praseodymium ions

Lanthanide doped zirconia based materials are promising phosphors for lighting applications. Transparent yttria stabilized zirconia fibres, in situ doped with Pr3+ ions, were grown by the laser floating zone method. The single crystalline doped fibres were found to be homogeneous in composition and provide an intense red luminescence at room temperature. The stability of this luminescence due to transitions between the 1D2 → 3H4 multiplets of the Pr3+ ions (intra-4f2 configuration) was studied by photo- and iono-luminescence. The evolution of the red integrated photoluminescence intensity with temperature indicates that the overall luminescence decreases to ca. 40% of the initial intensity at 14 K when heated to room temperature (RT). RT analysis of the iono-luminescence dependence on irradiation fluence reveals a decrease of the intensity (to slightly more than ∼60% of the initial intensity after 25 min of proton irradiation exposure). Nevertheless the luminescence intensity saturates at non-zero values for higher irradiation fluences revealing good potential for the use of this material in radiation environments.

Quantifying and Modeling the Influence of Forest on the Magnitude and Duration of Mountain Snow Storage in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Influence of environmental conditions on the age, hatch dates, and growth of juvenile Atlantic menhaden in the Choptank River, MD

Since 1993 Atlantic menhaden has experienced sustained low juvenile production (recruitment) in the Chesapeake Bay. Factors controlling growth, abundance, and mortality of larval and juvenile menhaden change throughout ontogeny such that larval growth rates could carry over to juvenile growth and survival. The effects of winter thermal conditions on the hatch dates and growth of larval and juvenile Atlantic menhaden in Atlantic shelf and Chesapeake Bay habitats were examined using otolith (ear-stone) increment analyses and growth models. For 2010-2013, truncated hatch-date distributions provided evidence for a winter recruitment bottleneck in Atlantic menhaden caused by cold temperatures. Hatch-dates of surviving juveniles were skewed towards warmer months for years characterized by colder temperatures. Reduced larval growth rates, influenced by reduced temperature and food availability, carried over to juvenile growth rates. A growing degree-day model performed well in simulating observed juvenile growth rates in the Choptank River tributary of Chesapeake Bay.

Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Influence of environmental variability and age on the body condition of small pelagic fish in the Gulf of Lions

Endogenous and environmental variables are fundamental in explaining variations in fish condition. Based on more than 20 yr of fish weight and length data, relative condition indices were computed for anchovy and sardine caught in the Gulf of Lions. Classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify endogenous factors affecting fish condition, and to group years of similar condition. Both species showed a similar annual cycle with condition being minimal in February and maximal in July. CART identified 3 groups of years where the fish populations generally showed poor, average and good condition and within which condition differed between age classes but not according to sex. In particular, during the period of poor condition (mostly recent years), sardines older than 1 yr appeared to be more strongly affected than younger individuals. Time-series were analyzed using generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the effects of oceanographic abiotic (temperature, Western Mediterranean Oscillation [WeMO] and Rhone outflow) and biotic (chlorophyll a and 6 plankton classes) factors on fish condition. The selected models explained 48 and 35% of the variance of anchovy and sardine condition, respectively. Sardine condition was negatively related to temperature but positively related to the WeMO and mesozooplankton and diatom concentrations. A positive effect of mesozooplankton and Rhone runoff on anchovy condition was detected. The importance of increasing temperatures and reduced water mixing in the NW Mediterranean Sea, affecting planktonic productivity and thus fish condition by bottom-up control processes, was highlighted by these results. Changes in plankton quality, quantity and phenology could lead to insufficient or inadequate food supply for both species.