Wahlbeteiligung bei Europawahlen : eine empirische Studie zu Deutschland und Polen

In der Arbeit wird die Wahlbeteiligung bei Europawahlen analysiert. Es geht um die Beantwortung der Frage, ob die individuelle Wahlteilnahme in alten und neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten bzw. alten und jungen Demokratien auf die gleichen Erklärungsgrößen zurückgeht oder ob möglicherweise Unterschiede zwischen beiden Ländergruppen bestehen. rnAls Bezugspunkt dient die Europawahl, die im Juni 2009 stattfand: Bei dieser Wahl fällt nicht nur die generell niedrige Beteiligung auf, sondern auch erhebliche Niveauunterschiede zwischen den einzelnen Mitgliedsstaaten. Um diesen Befund erklären zu können, wird zunächst ein theoretisches Erklärungsmodell entwickelt, das sich auf die folgenden fünf Dimensionen bezieht: politisches System der EU, europäische politische Gemeinschaft, Wählermobilisierung während des Europawahlkampfes, Gewohnheitswahl und Einschätzung der staatlichen sowie der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage. Als Erklärungsgröße werden in den fünf Bereichen jeweils unterschiedlich stark ausgeprägte Defizite in den beiden Ländergruppen angenommen. rnExemplarisch werden Deutschland und Polen untersucht. Die empirischen Analysen basieren auf dem umfangreichen Datensatz der European Election Study 2009 (ESS), hier werden die Daten der Voter Study verwendet. Nicht alle Hypothesen lassen sich im Rahmen der Arbeit bestätigten, nur ein Teil der unabhängigen Variablen hat auch im multivariaten Modell noch einen Einfluss auf die Europawahlbeteiligung. rnFür Deutschland zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass Wahlnorm und Wählermobilisierung einen größeren Effekt auf die Stimmabgabe ausüben als die Nutzenseite (Effektivität) der Wahlen. Im zweiten Modell, das für die polnischen Befragten berechnet wurde, erweisen sich nur zwei der unabhängigen Variablen als signifikant, d.h. nur die Einschätzung der Effektivität der Wahl und die internalisierte Wahlnorm haben einen Einfluss auf die Wahlteilnahme. Von der Effektivitätseinstufung geht eine größere Erklärungskraft aus als von der Wahlnorm; in diesem Modell überwiegt folglich die Nutzenseite der Europawahl. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass die unterschiedlichen Beteiligungsraten in den beiden Staaten durch unterschiedlich stark ausgeprägte Defizite in den Bereichen des politischen Systems und der Wahlnorm zustande kommen. Die Defizite sind in Polen stärker ausgeprägt und können so die niedrigere Wahlbeteiligung erklären. Darüber hinaus kann resümiert werden, dass die Nutzenseite der Europawahl in Polen einen stärkeren Einfluss auf die Beteiligung ausübt als in Deutschland.

Models and Algorihtm for the Optimization of Real-World Routing and Logistics Problems

Logistics involves planning, managing, and organizing the flows of goods from the point of origin to the point of destination in order to meet some requirements. Logistics and transportation aspects are very important and represent a relevant costs for producing and shipping companies, but also for public administration and private citizens. The optimization of resources and the improvement in the organization of operations is crucial for all branches of logistics, from the operation management to the transportation. As we will have the chance to see in this work, optimization techniques, models, and algorithms represent important methods to solve the always new and more complex problems arising in different segments of logistics. Many operation management and transportation problems are related to the optimization class of problems called Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). In this work, we consider several real-world deterministic and stochastic problems that are included in the wide class of the VRPs, and we solve them by means of exact and heuristic methods. We treat three classes of real-world routing and logistics problems. We deal with one of the most important tactical problems that arises in the managing of the bike sharing systems, that is the Bike sharing Rebalancing Problem (BRP). We propose models and algorithms for real-world earthwork optimization problems. We describe the 3DP process and we highlight several optimization issues in 3DP. Among those, we define the problem related to the tool path definition in the 3DP process, the 3D Routing Problem (3DRP), which is a generalization of the arc routing problem. We present an ILP model and several heuristic algorithms to solve the 3DRP.

Law, Informal Institutions and Trust: an Experimental Perspective

This dissertation has studied how legal and non-legal mechanisms affect the levels of trust and trustworthiness in an economy, and whether and when subtle psychological factors are crucial for establishing trust and even for recovering trust from a breach of contract. The first Chapter has addressed the question of whether formal legal enforcement crowds out or crowds in the amount of trust in a society. We find that formal legal mechanisms, especially formal contracts backed by a powerful authority, normally undermine trust except when they are perceived as legitimate, or when there are no strong social norms of fairness (i.e. the population in a society is considerably heterogeneous), or when the environment in which repeated commercial relationships take place becomes highly uncertain. The second Chapter has examined whether the endogenous adoption of a collective punishment institution can help a society coordinate on an efficient outcome, characterized by high levels of trust and trustworthiness. The experimental results show that the endogenous introduction of collective punishment by means of a majority-voting rule does not significantly improve coordination on the efficient equilibrium. Not all subjects seem to be able to anticipate the change in behavior induced by the introduction of the mechanism, and a majority of them vote against it. The third Chapter has explored whether high-trustors adapt their behavior in response to others’ trustworthiness or untrustworthiness more quickly, which in turn supports them to maintain higher default expectations of others’ trustworthiness relative to low-trustors. Our experimental results reveal that high-trustors are better than low-trustors at predicting others’ trustworthiness because they are less susceptible to the anticipated aversive emotions aroused by the potential betrayal and thereby have a higher willingness to acquire the valuable information about their partner’s actions.

Party Size and Constituency Representation: Evidence from the 19th-Century U.S. House of Representatives

Research on congressional parties assumes, but has not directly shown, that party size affects individual members' calculations. Drawing on a key case from the nineteenth-century House the secession-driven Republican hegemony of 1861 this article explores the hypothesis that party voting not only declines but also becomes more strongly linked to constituency factors as relative party size increases. The analysis reveals that the jump in party size coincides with (1) a decrease in party voting among individual continuing members, (2) a strengthening association between some constituency factors and party voting, and (3) patterns of decline in individual party voting that are explained in part by constituency measures.

The Blue Dog Coalition: Impact of a Single-Issue Caucus from the 104th to the 110th Congress

The Blue Dog Coalition is an informal organization of legislators within the House of Representatives that strives to influence policy on fiscal responsibility, attract the attention of the electorate, They are a group that elicits wide range of reactions covering the length of the political spectrum, but despite this, their claims of special defense of fiscal conservatism within the Democratic Party have gone relatively undocumented by the academic community.This project has integrated a party literature with a caucus literature, in the attempt of building a novel framework for research. Work on polarization, the significance of parties, the purpose and history of caucuses all have been fused in such away that the Blue Dogs have created an opportunity to test broad congressional questions on a caucus-microcosm scale. Three important questions have emerged from the many possible avenues of exploration on the topic: How does admission into the Blue Dog Coalition effect voting behavior - measured by interest, ideology, and party unityscores? How does party leadership delegate prestigious committee assignments, a traditional indicator of partisan favor and influence, towards Blue Dogs? Can we use the Blue Dog Coalition as an indicator of fiscal conservatism? To each of these questions, a number of interesting results emerged. Blue Dogs, in the 104th scored higher in conservative interest group scores, more towards the center in ideological methods, and lower in party unity Dogs began to behave closer to their Democratic counterparts. In addition, membership on these select committees rose from a very small number to greater proportional parity within the Democratic Party. Perhaps most interesting, the Blue Dog Coalition does behave as a significant, independent predictor effect on NTU scores, a variable used to demonstrate fiscal conservatism. This research has shown, first and foremost, that it is useful and practical to applyold arguments within the party literature to a smaller, caucus level of analysis that is relatively untouched by the political science field. For the Blue Dogs, specifically, we have tested the validity of their claims in an attempt to reach broader questions ofdemocratic responsibility and electoral clarity. This work, and other work I have drawn upon, has barely scratched the surface on Blue Dog Democrats and other caucuses of comparable influence and popularity, and there remains a wealth of research material onthis caucus alone to be explored by scholars in the field of congressional politics.

International Service-Learning and the Development of Civic Identity: Understanding the Role of Short-Term International Service-Learning and its Influence on the Development of Civic Identity in College Students Using a Mixed Methodological Approach

Higher education has a responsibility to educate a democratic citizenry and recent research indicates civic engagement is on the decline in the United States. Through a mixed methodological approach, I demonstrate that the potential exists for well structured short-term international service-learning programming to develop college students’ civic identities. Quantitative analysis of questionnaire data, collected from American college students immediately prior to their participation in a short-term service-learning experience in Northern Ireland and again upon their return to the United States, revealed increases in civic accountability, political efficacy, justice oriented citizenship, and service-learning. Subsequent qualitative analysis of interview transcripts, student journals, and field notes suggested that facilitated critical reflection before, during, and after the experience promoted transformational learning. Emergent themes included: (a) responsibilities to others, (b) the value of international service-learning, (c) crosspollination of ideas, (d) stepping outside the daily routine to facilitate divergent thinking, and (e) the necessity of precursory thinking for sustaining transformations in thinking. The first theme, responsibilities to others, was further divided into subthemes of thinking beyond oneself, raising awareness of responsibility to others, and voting responsibly.

Fitting of Mixtures with Unspecified Number of Components Using Cross Validation Distance Estimate

Estimation of the number of mixture components (k) is an unsolved problem. Available methods for estimation of k include bootstrapping the likelihood ratio test statistics and optimizing a variety of validity functionals such as AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We investigate the minimization of distance between fitted mixture model and the true density as a method for estimating k. The distances considered are Kullback-Leibler (KL) and “L sub 2”. We estimate these distances using cross validation. A reliable estimate of k is obtained by voting of B estimates of k corresponding to B cross validation estimates of distance. This estimation methods with KL distance is very similar to Monte Carlo cross validated likelihood methods discussed by Smyth (2000). With focus on univariate normal mixtures, we present simulation studies that compare the cross validated distance method with AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We also apply the cross validation estimate of distance approach along with AIC, BIC/MDL and ICOMP approach, to data from an osteoporosis drug trial in order to find groups that differentially respond to treatment.

"Army of One" to "Army Strong" : visual media and U.S. Army recruitment during Bush"s "War on Terror"

From Bush’s September 20, 2001 “War on Terror” speech to Congress to President-Elect Barack Obama’s acceptance speech on November 4, 2008, the U.S. Army produced visual recruitment material that addressed the concerns of falling enlistment numbers—due to the prolonged and difficult war in Iraq—with quickly-evolving and compelling rhetorical appeals: from the introduction of an “Army of One” (2001) to “Army Strong” (2006); from messages focused on education and individual identity to high-energy adventure and simulated combat scenarios, distributed through everything from printed posters and music videos to first-person tactical-shooter video games. These highly polished, professional visual appeals introduced to the American public during a time of an unpopular war fought by volunteers provide rich subject matter for research and analysis. This dissertation takes a multidisciplinary approach to the visual media utilized as part of the Army’s recruitment efforts during the War on Terror, focusing on American myths—as defined by Barthes—and how these myths are both revealed and reinforced through design across media platforms. Placing each selection in its historical context, this dissertation analyzes how printed materials changed as the War on Terror continued. It examines the television ad that introduced “Army Strong” to the American public, considering how the combination of moving image, text, and music structure the message and the way we receive it. This dissertation also analyzes the video game America’s Army, focusing on how the interaction of the human player and the computer-generated player combine to enhance the persuasive qualities of the recruitment message. Each chapter discusses how the design of the particular medium facilitates engagement/interactivity of the viewer. The conclusion considers what recruitment material produced during this time period suggests about the persuasive strategies of different media and how they create distinct relationships with their spectators. It also addresses how theoretical frameworks and critical concepts used by a variety of disciplines can be combined to analyze recruitment media utilizing a Selber inspired three literacy framework (functional, critical, rhetorical) and how this framework can contribute to the multimodal classroom by allowing instructors and students to do a comparative analysis of multiple forms of visual media with similar content.

The Amplifier - v. 3, no. 3

In this issue...Engineering Day, M-Club, Gorden Ziesing, S&H Green Stamps,Shell Oil Company, Dave Johnson, school honor system, B. W. Brown, Stanolind

Materials-Handling Hazard Controls: Assessment of Haddon’s Injury Control Strategies

This investigation assessed the applicability of Dr. William Haddon’s strategies for controlling hazards involving materials-handling operations in industrial and mining workplaces. Published over 20 years ago, Haddon’s strategies purport to include all strategies for preventing and mitigating harm to people, property, and the environment. Students in an undergraduate class were assigned to find tactical examples of each of Haddon’s strategies applicable to material handling. Haddon’s tenth strategy involving medical care and rehabilitation was not included. Their classifications were analyzed to identify points of confusion as well as points of general agreement. Students found numerous tactics for strategies involving engineering and behavioral strategies. Fewer tactics were identified for strategies involving damage control through effective and timely response.

Past is Prologue: Montana’s Historic Women’s Movement Re-emerges in the Progressive 1970s -- Dorothy Bradley, Marilyn Wessel & Jane Jelinski “In the Crucible of Change”

One-hundred years ago, in 1914, male voters in Montana (MT) extended suffrage (voting rights) to women six years before the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified and provided that right to women in all states. The long struggle for women’s suffrage was energized in the progressive era and Jeanette Rankin of Missoula emerged as a leader of the campaign; in 1912 both major MT political party platforms supported women suffrage. In the 1914 election, 41,000 male voters supported woman suffrage while nearly 38,000 opposed it. MT was not only ahead of the curve on women suffrage, but just two years later in 1916 elected Jeanette Rankin as the first woman ever elected to the United States Congress. Rankin became a national leader for women's equality. In her commitment to equality, she opposed US entry into World War I, partially because she said she could not support men being made to go to war if women were not allowed to serve alongside them. During MT’s initial progressive era, women in MT not only pursued equality for themselves (the MT Legislature passed an equal pay act in 1919), but pursued other social improvements, such as temperance/prohibition. Well-known national women leaders such as Carrie Nation and others found a welcome in MT during the period. Women's role in the trade union movement was evidenced in MT by the creation of the Women's Protective Union in Butte, the first union in America dedicated solely to women workers. But Rankin’s defeat following her vote against World War I was used as a way for opponents to advocate a conservative, traditionalist perspective on women's rights in MT. Just as we then entered a period in MT where the “copper collar” was tightened around MT economically and politically by the Anaconda Company and its allies, we also found a different kind of conservative, traditionalist collar tightened around the necks of MT women. The recognition of women's role during World War II, represented by “Rosie the Riveter,” made it more difficult for that conservative, traditionalist approach to be forever maintained. In addition, women's role in MT agriculture – family farms and ranches -- spoke strongly to the concept of equality, as farm wives were clearly active partners in the agricultural enterprises. But rural MT was, by and large, the bastion of conservative values relative to the position of women in society. As the period of “In the Crucible of Change” began, the 1965 MT Legislature included only three women. In 1967 and 1969 only one woman legislator served. In 1971 the number went up to two, including one of our guests, Dorothy Bradley. It was only after the Constitutional Convention, which featured 19 women delegates, that the barrier was broken. The 1973 Legislature saw 9 women elected. The 1975 and 1977 sessions had 14 women legislators; 15 were elected for the 1979 session. At that time progressive women and men in the Legislature helped implement the equality provisions of the new MT Constitution, ratified the federal Equal Rights Amendment in 1974, and held back national and local conservatives forces which sought in later Legislatures to repeal that ratification. As with the national movement at the time, MT women sought and often succeeded in adopting legal mechanisms that protected women’s equality, while full equality in the external world remained (and remains) a treasured objective. The story of the re-emergence of Montana’s women’s movement in the 1970s is discussed in this chapter by three very successful and prominent women who were directly involved in the effort: Dorothy Bradley, Marilyn Wessel, and Jane Jelinski. Their recollections of the political, sociological and cultural path Montana women pursued in the 1970s and the challenges and opposition they faced provide an insider’s perspective of the battle for equality for women under the Big Sky “In the Crucible of Change.” Dorothy Bradley grew up in Bozeman, Montana; received her Bachelor of Arts Phi Beta Kappa from Colorado College, Colorado Springs, in 1969 with a Distinction in Anthropology; and her Juris Doctor from American University in Washington, D.C., in 1983. In 1970, at the age of 22, following the first Earth Day and running on an environmental platform, Ms. Bradley won a seat in the 1971 Montana House of Representatives where she served as the youngest member and only woman. Bradley established a record of achievement on environmental & progressive legislation for four terms, before giving up the seat to run a strong second to Pat Williams for the Democratic nomination for an open seat in Montana’s Western Congressional District. After becoming an attorney and an expert on water law, she returned to the Legislature for 4 more terms in the mid-to-late 1980s. Serving a total of eight terms, Dorothy was known for her leadership on natural resources, tax reform, economic development, and other difficult issues during which time she gained recognition for her consensus-building approach. Campaigning by riding her horse across the state, Dorothy was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1992, losing the race by less than a percentage point. In 1993 she briefly taught at a small rural school next to the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation. She was then hired as the Director of the Montana University System Water Center, an education and research arm of Montana State University. From 2000 - 2008 she served as the first Gallatin County Court Administrator with the task of collaboratively redesigning the criminal justice system. She currently serves on One Montana’s Board, is a National Advisor for the American Prairie Foundation, and is on NorthWestern Energy’s Board of Directors. Dorothy was recognized with an Honorary Doctorate from her alma mater, Colorado College, was named Business Woman of the Year by the Bozeman Chamber of Commerce and MSU Alumni Association, and was Montana Business and Professional Women’s Montana Woman of Achievement. Marilyn Wessel was born in Iowa, lived and worked in Los Angeles, California, and Washington, D.C. before moving to Bozeman in 1972. She has an undergraduate degree in journalism from Iowa State University, graduate degree in public administration from Montana State University, certification from the Harvard University Institute for Education Management, and served a senior internship with the U.S. Congress, Montana delegation. In Montana Marilyn has served in a number of professional positions, including part-time editor for the Montana Cooperative Extension Service, News Director for KBMN Radio, Special Assistant to the President and Director of Communications at Montana State University, Director of University Relations at Montana State University and Dean and Director of the Museum of the Rockies at MSU. Marilyn retired from MSU as Dean Emeritus in 2003. Her past Board Service includes Montana State Merit System Council, Montana Ambassadors, Vigilante Theater Company, Montana State Commission on Practice, Museum of the Rockies, Helena Branch of the Ninth District Federal Reserve Bank, Burton K. Wheeler Center for Public Policy, Bozeman Chamber of Commerce, and Friends of KUSM Public Television. Marilyn’s past publications and productions include several articles on communications and public administration issues as well as research, script preparation and presentation of several radio documentaries and several public television programs. She is co-author of one book, 4-H An American Idea: A History of 4-H. Marilyn’s other past volunteer activities and organizations include Business and Professional Women, Women's Political Caucus, League of Women Voters, and numerous political campaigns. She is currently engaged professionally in museum-related consulting and part-time teaching at Montana State University as well as serving on the Editorial Board of the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and a member of Pilgrim Congregational Church and Family Promise. Marilyn and her husband Tom, a retired MSU professor, live in Bozeman. She enjoys time with her children and grandchildren, hiking, golf, Italian studies, cooking, gardening and travel. Jane Jelinski is a Wisconsin native, with a BA from Fontbonne College in St. Louis, MO who taught fifth and seventh grades prior to moving to Bozeman in 1973. A stay-at-home mom with a five year old daughter and an infant son, she was promptly recruited by the Gallatin Women’s Political Caucus to conduct a study of Sex-Role Stereotyping in K Through 6 Reading Text Books in the Bozeman School District. Sociologist Dr. Louise Hale designed the study and did the statistical analysis and Jane read all the texts, entered the data and wrote the report. It was widely disseminated across Montana and received attention of the press. Her next venture into community activism was to lead the successful effort to downzone her neighborhood which was under threat of encroaching business development. Today the neighborhood enjoys the protections of a Historic Preservation District. During this time she earned her MPA from Montana State University. Subsequently Jane founded the Gallatin Advocacy Program for Developmentally Disabled Adults in 1978 and served as its Executive Director until her appointment to the Gallatin County Commission in 1984, a controversial appointment which she chronicled in the Fall issue of the Gallatin History Museum Quarterly. Copies of the issue can be ordered through: http://gallatinhistorymuseum.org/the-museum-bookstore/shop/. Jane was re-elected three times as County Commissioner, serving fourteen years. She was active in the Montana Association of Counties (MACO) and was elected its President in 1994. She was also active in the National Association of Counties, serving on numerous policy committees. In 1998 Jane resigned from the County Commission 6 months before the end of her final term to accept the position of Assistant Director of MACO, from where she lobbied for counties, provided training and research for county officials, and published a monthly newsletter. In 2001 she became Director of the MSU Local Government Center where she continued to provide training and research for county and municipal officials across MT. There she initiated the Montana Mayors Academy in partnership with MMIA. She taught State and Local Government, Montana Politics and Public Administration in the MSU Political Science Department before retiring in 2008. Jane has been married to Jack for 46 years, has two grown children and three grandchildren.

The Amplifier - v. 8, no. 11

In this issue...M-Day dance, V. Jenks Orchestra, voting, Montana Legislature, Tom Sheehy, tennis, Columbia Gardens, Loretta Peck, commencement

Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming and Simulation Approach to the Development of Valid and Realistic Master Production Schedule

Master production schedule (MPS) plays an important role in an integrated production planning system. It converts the strategic planning defined in a production plan into the tactical operation execution. The MPS is also known as a tool for top management to control over manufacture resources and becomes input of the downstream planning levels such as material requirement planning (MRP) and capacity requirement planning (CRP). Hence, inappropriate decision on the MPS development may lead to infeasible execution, which ultimately causes poor delivery performance. One must ensure that the proposed MPS is valid and realistic for implementation before it is released to real manufacturing system. In practice, where production environment is stochastic in nature, the development of MPS is no longer simple task. The varying processing time, random event such as machine failure is just some of the underlying causes of uncertainty that may be hardly addressed at planning stage so that in the end the valid and realistic MPS is tough to be realized. The MPS creation problem becomes even more sophisticated as decision makers try to consider multi-objectives; minimizing inventory, maximizing customer satisfaction, and maximizing resource utilization. This study attempts to propose a methodology for MPS creation which is able to deal with those obstacles. This approach takes into account uncertainty and makes trade off among conflicting multi-objectives at the same time. It incorporates fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) and discrete event simulation (DES) for MPS development.