The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.

What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis

This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the USusing a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. Thereare instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policyrule and the standard deviation of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification ofthe policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest,but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Comparison of human chromosome 21 conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs) with the mouse and dog genomes shows that their selective constraint is independent of their genic environment.

The analysis of conservation between the human and mouse genomes resulted in the identification of a large number of conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs). The functional significance of this nongenic conservation remains unknown, however. The availability of the sequence of a third mammalian genome, the dog, allows for a large-scale analysis of evolutionary attributes of CNGs in mammals. We have aligned 1638 previously identified CNGs and 976 conserved exons (CODs) from human chromosome 21 (Hsa21) with their orthologous sequences in mouse and dog. Attributes of selective constraint, such as sequence conservation, clustering, and direction of substitutions were compared between CNGs and CODs, showing a clear distinction between the two classes. We subsequently performed a chromosome-wide analysis of CNGs by correlating selective constraint metrics with their position on the chromosome and relative to their distance from genes. We found that CNGs appear to be randomly arranged in intergenic regions, with no bias to be closer or farther from genes. Moreover, conservation and clustering of substitutions of CNGs appear to be completely independent of their distance from genes. These results suggest that the majority of CNGs are not typical of previously described regulatory elements in terms of their location. We propose models for a global role of CNGs in genome function and regulation, through long-distance cis or trans chromosomal interactions.

Structural covariance of superficial white matter in mild Alzheimer's disease compared to normal aging.

INTRODUCTION: Interindividual variations in regional structural properties covary across the brain, thus forming networks that change as a result of aging and accompanying neurological conditions. The alterations of superficial white matter (SWM) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are of special interest, since they follow the AD-specific pattern characterized by the strongest neurodegeneration of the medial temporal lobe and association cortices. METHODS: Here, we present an SWM network analysis in comparison with SWM topography based on the myelin content quantified with magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) for 39 areas in each hemisphere in 15 AD patients and 15 controls. The networks are represented by graphs, in which nodes correspond to the areas, and edges denote statistical associations between them. RESULTS: In both groups, the networks were characterized by asymmetrically distributed edges (predominantly in the left hemisphere). The AD-related differences were also leftward. The edges lost due to AD tended to connect nodes in the temporal lobe to other lobes or nodes within or between the latter lobes. The newly gained edges were mostly confined to the temporal and paralimbic regions, which manifest demyelination of SWM already in mild AD. CONCLUSION: This pattern suggests that the AD pathological process coordinates SWM demyelination in the temporal and paralimbic regions, but not elsewhere. A comparison of the MTR maps with MTR-based networks shows that although, in general, the changes in network architecture in AD recapitulate the topography of (de)myelination, some aspects of structural covariance (including the interhemispheric asymmetry of networks) have no immediate reflection in the myelination pattern.

Cis-trans interactions of cell surface receptors: biological roles and structural basis.

Cell surface receptors bind ligands expressed on other cells (in trans) in order to communicate with neighboring cells. However, an increasing number of cell surface receptors are found to also interact with ligands expressed on the same cell (in cis). These observations raise questions regarding the biological role of such cis interactions. Specifically, it is important to know whether cis and trans binding have distinct functional effects and, if so, how a single cell discriminates between interactions in cis versus trans. Further, what are the structural features that allow certain cell surface receptors to engage ligand both on the same as well as on an apposed cell membrane? Here, we summarize known examples of receptors that display cis-trans binding and discuss the emerging diversity of biological roles played by these unconventional two-way interactions, along with their structural basis.

Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is notstationary along the unemployment spell and where jobs do not lastforever. Under this circumstance, reservation wages can be lower thanwithout separations, as in a stationary environment, but they can alsobe initially higher because of the non-stationarity of the model. Moreover,the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than with noseparations. The model is estimated structurally using Spanish data forthe period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although the decrease inreservation wages is the main determinant of the change in the exit ratefrom unemployment for the first four months, later on the only effect comesfrom the job offer arrival rate, given that acceptance probabilities areroughly equal to one.

What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks

This paper proposes a new time-domain test of a process being I(d), 0 < d = 1, under the null, against the alternative of being I(0) with deterministic components subject to structural breaks at known or unknown dates, with the goal of disentangling the existing identification issue between long-memory and structural breaks. Denoting by AB(t) the different types of structural breaks in the deterministic components of a time series considered by Perron (1989), the test statistic proposed here is based on the t-ratio (or the infimum of a sequence of t-ratios) of the estimated coefficient on yt-1 in an OLS regression of ?dyt on a simple transformation of the above-mentioned deterministic components and yt-1, possibly augmented by a suitable number of lags of ?dyt to account for serial correlation in the error terms. The case where d = 1 coincides with the Perron (1989) or the Zivot and Andrews (1992) approaches if the break date is known or unknown, respectively. The statistic is labelled as the SB-FDF (Structural Break-Fractional Dickey- Fuller) test, since it is based on the same principles as the well-known Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Both its asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties are analyzed, and two empirical applications are provided.

On the structural difference between the evolutionary approach of Young and that of Kandori, Mailath and Rob

We provide robust examples of symmetric two-player coordination games in normal form that reveal that equilibrium selection bythe evolutionary model of Young (1993) is essentially different from equilibrium selection by the evolutionary model of Kandori, Mailath and Rob (1993).

Extensive gene traffic on the mammalian X chromosome.

Mammalian sex chromosomes have undergone profound changes since evolving from ancestral autosomes. By examining retroposed genes in the human and mouse genomes, we demonstrate that, during evolution, the mammalian X chromosome has generated and recruited a disproportionately high number of functional retroposed genes, whereas the autosomes experienced lower gene turnover. Most autosomal copies originating from X-linked genes exhibited testis-biased expression. Such export is incompatible with mutational bias and is likely driven by natural selection to attain male germline function. However, the excess recruitment is consistent with a combination of both natural selection and mutational bias.