Experiência Inicial de Dois Centros Nacionais no Implante de Prótese Aórtica Transcateter

Fundamento: O implante de prótese aórtica transcateter é uma alternativa efetiva para o tratamento cirúrgico para a correção de estenose aórtica grave em pacientes inoperáveis ou de alto risco cirúrgico. Objetivos: Apresentar os resultados clínicos e ecocardiográficos imediatos e no médio prazo da experiência inicial do implante de prótese aórtica transcateter. Métodos: Entre junho de 2009 e fevereiro de 2013, 112 pacientes foram submetidos a implante de prótese aórtica transcateter. Resultados: A idade média foi 82,5 ± 6,5 anos e o Euro SCORE logístico foi 23,6 ± 13,5. O sucesso do procedimento foi de 84%. Após o implante, houve queda do gradiente sistólico médio (pré = 54,7 ± 15,3 mmHg vs. pós = 11,7 ± 4,0 mmHg; p < 0,01). Acidente vascular cerebral ocorreu em 3,6% dos pacientes, complicações vasculares em 19%, e foi necessário o implante de marca-passo definitivo em 13% dos pacientes nos primeiros 30 dias pós-implante. A mortalidade aos 30 dias e no seguimento médio de 16 ± 11 meses foi, respectivamente, de 14 e de 8,9%. A presença de doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica foi o único preditor de mortalidade em 30 dias e no seguimento. A área valvar aórtica e o gradiente sistólico médio não apresentaram variações significativas durante o seguimento. Conclusões: O implante de prótese aórtica transcateter é um procedimento eficaz e seguro para o tratamento da estenose aórtica em pacientes de alto risco cirúrgico ou inoperáveis. A presença de doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica foi o único preditor independente de mortalidade identificado, tanto no primeiro mês pós-intervenção quanto no seguimento mais tardio.

What is the european social model? an aproximation based on Spanish case

The public perception of the EU in Spain varies greatly. The most positive aspects of Spanish membership are associated with the consolidation of democracy, economic growth, the introduction of the euro, the growth in employment and structural and cohesion funds, the increase in the female participation rate, and the equal opportunities policies. The analysts are in favour of common objectives in the employment policy and multi-level government. The less positive aspects of the EU are the risks of losing social protection and loss of employment in some sectors due to mergers of multinationals and delocalization of companies towards Eastern Europe. The continuous demands for reform of the welfare state, the toughening of the conditions of access to social benefit and the reform of the labour market are also seen as problematic issues. Risks of competitive cuts and social dumping.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

La reconfiguració de la frontera hispano-marroquina (1986-2010)

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Universitat Abdelmalek Essaadi, Marroc durant gener i febrer de 2007. S’analitzen els principals aspectes del procés de reconfiguració de la frontera hispano-marroquina, que segueix l’accés d’Espanya a la Unió Europea, l’any 1986. L'estudi s’estructura en tres parts, a través de les quals s’exploren les dimensions geopolítica, funcional i simbòlica del procés de refronterització. Partint de l’escenari general de la frontera hispano-marroquina, l’anàlisi s’aproxima gradualment als escenaris particulars construïts a l’entorn de les fronteres euro-africanes de Ceuta i Melilla –les dues ciutats magribines sota sobirania espanyola. D’aquest manera es descriu com el procés tripartit de refronterització ha forjat la geografia actual d’aquest peculiars segments de la frontera entre la UE/Espanya i el Marroc. L'anàlisi conclou tot subratllant com la frontera hispano-marroquina està condicionada per la creixent divergència entre la implementació de les necessitats securitàries de la frontera exterior de la UE i la gestió fronterera del lliure comerç.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion

We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a ‘convergence-trade’ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

Central banks and house prices in the run-up to the crisis

The financial crisis and the role played within it by fluctuations in house prices has reopened the debate about whether monetary policy should respond to asset prices. This paper investigates how the central banks of the euro area, the UK and the US considered, understood and responded to the trends in house prices in the six or seven years preceding the crisis, and how they have analysed those developments since the crisis. It suggests that these central banks, particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones, might have been able to take some useful action if they had devoted more intellectual resources to analysing the possible misalignments of house prices and been willing to act on them.

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

The Spillover Effects of Monitoring: A Field Experiment.

We provide field experimental evidence of the effects of monitoring in a context where productivity is multi-dimensional and only one dimension is monitored and incentivised. We hire students to do a job for us. The job consists of identifying euro coins. We study the effects of monitoring and penalising mistakes on work quality, and evaluate spillovers on non- incentivised dimensions of productivity (punctuality and theft). We .nd that monitoring improves work quality only if incentives are large, but reduces punctuality substantially irrespectively of the size of incentives. Monitoring does not affect theft, with ten per cent of participants stealing overall. Our setting also allows us to disentangle between possible theoretical mechanisms driving the adverse effects of monitoring. Our .ndings are supportive of a reciprocity mechanism, whereby workers retaliate for being distrusted.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Sobrequés la malària

Treball de recerca realitzat per alumnes d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Aquest treball consisteix en la creació d'una pàgina web de difusió científica sobre la malària i la tasca d'investigació del doctor Pedro Alonso. Es tracta de la continuació de la participació dels autors en el projecte Investiga la Investigació (www.investigalainvestigacio.cat), organitzat des de l'Euro Science Open Forum (ESOF2008) i que consistia en treballar conjuntament amb altres instituts de Catalunya per fer un reportatge al voltant d'un científic de renom, utilitzant les noves tecnologies digitals. La pàgina web creada -www.sobremalaria.co.cc- està estructurada en 3 apartats: en primer lloc, la presentació del projecte i l'explicació de la metodologia de treball, després el recull de la documentació del treball (informació sobre la malària, entrevistes...) i per últim un vídeo divulgatiu sobre la malària, producte del projecte Investiga la Investigació.