A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Géotourisme et utilisation de sites naturels d'intérêt pour les sciences de la Terre: les régions de Crans-Montana-Sierre (Valais, Alpes suisses) et Chamonix-Mont-Blanc (Haute-Savoie, Alpes françaises)

Résumé : Au travers de l'étude des régions de Crans-Montana-Sierre (Valais, Suisse) et de Chamonix-Mont-Blanc (Haute-Savoie, France), cette recherche considère les liens existants entre activités touristiques et sciences de la Terre. Ainsi, les sites géologiques et géomorphologiques pris en compte sont perçus comme ayant non seulement une valeur scientifique, mais aussi un intérêt scénique, culturel et économique. D'un point de vue (géo)touristique, différents modèles d'analyse sont proposés pour expliciter les composantes de l'offre et de la demande et comprendre le cycle de vie des objets étudiés. L'offre que constituent ces sites est tout d'abord présentée afin d'évaluer leurs différents potentiels, ainsi que l'utilisation spatio-temporelle, didactique et économique qui en est faite. Ensuite, les logiques d'acteurs sont analysées au travers des phases de valorisation, d'exploitation et de transformation, dans le but de comprendre les facteurs et les projets d'utilisation les concernant. Enfin, la demande des différents publics cibles, de même que leurs caractéristiques socio-touristiques et (géo)didactiques, sont discutées. Pour ce faire, des méthodes d'inventaire, d'évaluation, d'entretien et de questionnaire ont été utilisées, à différentes échelles d'analyse. On constate d'abord que le pôle des valeurs scénique et économique présente une plus forte mise à contribution, par rapport à l'utilisation didactique. De plus, le niveau de protection des sites ne restreint généralement pas leur exploitation, au contraire du facteur risque. Du point de vue des publics cibles, une forte demande d'explications didactiques est exprimée, s'orientant vers une approche multithématique des potentiels à mettre en valeur; des biens et services de base sont ainsi demandés. Enfin, force est de constater que seuls de grands projets peuvent rendre les activités (géo)touristiques rentables. A l'avenir, sachant que le géotourisme peut répondre à une demande touristique liée au rêve et à l'émotion, l'approche de l'offre devrait intégrer une réflexion en didactique des sciences de la Terre, d'autant que cette forme de tourisme tend à devenir une composante du développement économique régional, notamment en dehors de la saison d'hiver. Idéalement, l'utilisation touristique de la géodiversité devrait s'accompagner d'une politique de protection dynamique, combinant préservation et mise en valeur. A terme, le but ultime de cette entreprise est notamment d'élargir la notion de patrimoine culturel, pour favoriser une approche transdisciplinaire du paysage Abstract : Based on the study of the areas of Crans-Montana-Sierre (Valais, Switzerland) and Chamonix-Mont-Blanc (Haute-Savoie, France), this study considers the links between tourism activities and Earth science. Thus, the studied geological and geomorphological sites have not only a scientific va1ue, but also scenic, cultural and economic value. From a point of view of tourism, different models of analysis are examined in order to explain the components of the supply and the demand, and to understand the life cycles of the considered objects. The primary product of these sites is first presented, in order to assess their different potential as well as their didactic, economic, spatial and temporal use. The stakeholders' behaviour is then analysed to understand the factors and projected use, with the help of the optimisation, exploitation and transformation phases. Finally, the demand of the different target markets as well as their socio-tourist and (geo)didactic characteristics are discussed. To complete this study, methods of census, assessment, interviewing and questionnaire surveying are used, at different scales of analysis. The main results appear to demonstrate that the scenic and economic values present a higher value relative to the didactic use. Moreover, the required conservation measures for the studied sites do not generally restrict the use, on the contrary to the "risk" factor. From the point of view of the target market, a relevant requirement for explanatory commentary is expressed and tends towards an approach optimising different themes to utilise potential; basic popular goods and services are also requested. Finally, it is clearly demonstrated that only relevant projects are able to make this kind of activity profitable. For the future, geotourism may be marketed to a tourist demand for imagination and emotion. Consequently, the product approach should integrate a reflection on Earth science popularisation given that this branch of tourism tends to receive a component of the economic and regional development, notably during the summer period. However, the use of geodiversity should include a concept of dynamic management, taking into account conservation as well as tourism development. Thus, the final aim of this process is to r,r'iden the notion of cultural heritage, in order to stimulate a multidisciplinary approach to the landscape.

Molecular phylogenetics and temporal diversification in the genus Aeromonas based on the sequences of five housekeeping genes

Several approaches have been developed to estimate both the relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades based on molecular phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships, according to an underlying model of diversification. However, the macroevolutionary models established for eukaryotes have scarcely been used with prokaryotes. We have investigated the rate and pattern of cladogenesis in the genus Aeromonas (γ-Proteobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteria) using the sequences of five housekeeping genes and an uncorrelated relaxed-clock approach. To our knowledge, until now this analysis has never been applied to all the species described in a bacterial genus and thus opens up the possibility of establishing models of speciation from sequence data commonly used in phylogenetic studies of prokaryotes. Our results suggest that the genus Aeromonas began to diverge between 248 and 266 million years ago, exhibiting a constant divergence rate through the Phanerozoic, which could be described as a pure birth process.

Theory of mind impairment in patients with behavioural variant fronto-temporal dementia (bv-FTD) increases caregiver burden.

BACKGROUND: Theory of mind (ToM), the capacity to infer the intention, beliefs and emotional states of others, is frequently impaired in behavioural variant fronto-temporal dementia patients (bv-FTDp); however, its impact on caregiver burden is unexplored. SETTING: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health. SUBJECTS: bv-FTDp (n = 28), a subgroup of their caregivers (n = 20) and healthy controls (n = 32). METHODS: we applied a faux-pas (FP) task as a ToM measure in bv-FTDp and healthy controls and the Zarit Burden Interview as a measure of burden in patients' caregivers. Patients underwent structural MRI; we used voxel-based morphometry to examine relationships between regional atrophy and ToM impairment and caregiver burden. RESULTS: FP task performance was impaired in bv-FTDp and negatively associated with caregiver burden. Atrophy was found in areas involved in ToM. Caregiver burden increased with greater atrophy in left lateral premotor cortex, a region associated in animal models with the presence of mirror neurons, possibly involved in empathy. CONCLUSION: ToM impairment in bv-FTDp is associated with increased caregiver burden.

Galanin pathogenic mutations in temporal lobe epilepsy.

Temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is a common epilepsy syndrome with a complex etiology. Despite evidence for the participation of genetic factors, the genetic basis of TLE remains largely unknown. A role for the galanin neuropeptide in the regulation of epileptic seizures has been established in animal models more than two decades ago. However, until now there was no report of pathogenic mutations in GAL, the galanin-encoding gene, and therefore its role in human epilepsy was not established. Here, we studied a family with a pair of monozygotic twins affected by TLE and two unaffected siblings born to healthy parents. Exome sequencing revealed that both twins carried a novel de novo mutation (p.A39E) in the GAL gene. Functional analysis revealed that the p.A39E mutant showed antagonistic activity against galanin receptor 1 (GalR1)-mediated response, and decreased binding affinity and reduced agonist properties for GalR2. These findings suggest that the p.A39E mutant could impair galanin signaling in the hippocampus, leading to increased glutamatergic excitation and ultimately to TLE. In a cohort of 582 cases, we did not observe any pathogenic mutations indicating that mutations in GAL are a rare cause of TLE. The identification of a novel de novo mutation in a biologically-relevant candidate gene, coupled with functional evidence that the mutant protein disrupts galanin signaling, strongly supports GAL as the causal gene for the TLE in this family. Given the availability of galanin agonists which inhibit seizures, our findings could potentially have direct implications for the development of anti-epileptic treatment.

Connectivity and tissue microstructural alterations in right and left temporal lobe epilepsy revealed by diffusion spectrum imaging.

Focal epilepsy is increasingly recognized as the result of an altered brain network, both on the structural and functional levels and the characterization of these widespread brain alterations is crucial for our understanding of the clinical manifestation of seizure and cognitive deficits as well as for the management of candidates to epilepsy surgery. Tractography based on Diffusion Tensor Imaging allows non-invasive mapping of white matter tracts in vivo. Recently, diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI), based on an increased number of diffusion directions and intensities, has improved the sensitivity of tractography, notably with respect to the problem of fiber crossing and recent developments allow acquisition times compatible with clinical application. We used DSI and parcellation of the gray matter in regions of interest to build whole-brain connectivity matrices describing the mutual connections between cortical and subcortical regions in patients with focal epilepsy and healthy controls. In addition, the high angular and radial resolution of DSI allowed us to evaluate also some of the biophysical compartment models, to better understand the cause of the changes in diffusion anisotropy. Global connectivity, hub architecture and regional connectivity patterns were altered in TLE patients and showed different characteristics in RTLE vs LTLE with stronger abnormalities in RTLE. The microstructural analysis suggested that disturbed axonal density contributed more than fiber orientation to the connectivity changes affecting the temporal lobes whereas fiber orientation changes were more involved in extratemporal lobe changes. Our study provides further structural evidence that RTLE and LTLE are not symmetrical entities and DSI-based imaging could help investigate the microstructural correlate of these imaging abnormalities.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

CFD Modelling of Direct Contact Condensation in Suppression Pools by Applying Condensation Models of Separated Flow

The condensation rate has to be high in the safety pressure suppression pool systems of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) in order to fulfill their safety function. The phenomena due to such a high direct contact condensation (DCC) rate turn out to be very challenging to be analysed either with experiments or numerical simulations. In this thesis, the suppression pool experiments carried out in the POOLEX facility of Lappeenranta University of Technology were simulated. Two different condensation modes were modelled by using the 2-phase CFD codes NEPTUNE CFD and TransAT. The DCC models applied were the typical ones to be used for separated flows in channels, and their applicability to the rapidly condensing flow in the condensation pool context had not been tested earlier. A low Reynolds number case was the first to be simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-31 was operated near the conditions between the ’quasi-steady oscillatory interface condensation’ mode and the ’condensation within the blowdown pipe’ mode. The condensation models of Lakehal et al. and Coste & Lavi´eville predicted the condensation rate quite accurately, while the other tested ones overestimated it. It was possible to get the direct phase change solution to settle near to the measured values, but a very high resolution of calculation grid was needed. Secondly, a high Reynolds number case corresponding to the ’chugging’ mode was simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-28 was chosen, because various standard and highspeed video samples of bubbles were recorded during it. In order to extract numerical information from the video material, a pattern recognition procedure was programmed. The bubble size distributions and the frequencies of chugging were calculated with this procedure. With the statistical data of the bubble sizes and temporal data of the bubble/jet appearance, it was possible to compare the condensation rates between the experiment and the CFD simulations. In the chugging simulations, a spherically curvilinear calculation grid at the blowdown pipe exit improved the convergence and decreased the required cell count. The compressible flow solver with complete steam-tables was beneficial for the numerical success of the simulations. The Hughes-Duffey model and, to some extent, the Coste & Lavi´eville model produced realistic chugging behavior. The initial level of the steam/water interface was an important factor to determine the initiation of the chugging. If the interface was initialized with a water level high enough inside the blowdown pipe, the vigorous penetration of a water plug into the pool created a turbulent wake which invoked the chugging that was self-sustaining. A 3D simulation with a suitable DCC model produced qualitatively very realistic shapes of the chugging bubbles and jets. The comparative FFT analysis of the bubble size data and the pool bottom pressure data gave useful information to distinguish the eigenmodes of chugging, bubbling, and pool structure oscillations.

Management zones using fuzzy clustering based on spatial-temporal variability of soil and corn yield

Clustering soil and crop data can be used as a basis for the definition of management zones because the data are grouped into clusters based on the similar interaction of these variables. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify management zones using fuzzy c-means clustering analysis based on the spatial and temporal variability of soil attributes and corn yield. The study site (18 by 250-m in size) was located in Jaboticabal, São Paulo/Brazil. Corn yield was measured in one hundred 4.5 by 10-m cells along four parallel transects (25 observations per transect) over five growing seasons between 2001 and 2010. Soil chemical and physical attributes were measured. SAS procedure MIXED was used to identify which variable(s) most influenced the spatial variability of corn yield over the five study years. Basis saturation (BS) was the variable that better related to corn yield, thus, semivariograms models were fitted for BS and corn yield and then, data values were krigged. Management Zone Analyst software was used to carry out the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. The optimum number of management zones can change over time, as well as the degree of agreement between the BS and corn yield management zone maps. Thus, it is very important take into account the temporal variability of crop yield and soil attributes to delineate management zones accurately.

Modeling temporal variations of Gracilaria Greville and Hypnea J.V. Lamouroux (Rhodophyta) assemblages on a midlittoral reef platform at Piedade Beach, Pernambuco State, Brazil

The diversity of algal banks composed of species out the genera Gracilaria Greville and Hypnea J.V. Lamouroux have been impacted by commercial exploitation and coastal eutrophication. The present study sought to construct dynamic models based on algal physiology to simulate seasonal variations in the biomasses of Gracilaria and Hypnea an intertidal reef at Piedade Beach in Jaboatão dos Guararapes, Pernambuco State, Brazil. Five 20 × 20 cm plots in a reef pool on a midlittoral reef platform were randomly sampled during April, June, August, October, and December/2009 and in January and March/2010. Water temperature, pH, irradiance, oxygen and salinity levels as well as the concentrations of ammonia, nitrate and phosphate were measured at the sampling site. Forcing functions were employed in the model to represent abiotic factors, and algal decay was simulated with a dispersal function. Algal growth was modeled using a logistic function and was found to be sensitive to temperature and salinity. Maximum absorption rates of ammonia and phosphate were higher in Hypnea than in Gracilaria, indicating that the former takes up nutrients more efficiently at higher concentrations. Gracilaria biomass peaked at approximately 120 g (dry weight m-2) in March/2010 and was significantly lower in August/2009; Hypnea biomasses, on the other hand, did not show any significant variations among the different months, indicating that resource competition may influence the productivity of these algae.

Hydraulic and fluvial geomorphological models for a bedrock channel reach of the Twenty Mile Creek /

Bedrock channels have been considered challenging geomorphic settings for the application of numerical models. Bedrock fluvial systems exhibit boundaries that are typically less mobile than alluvial systems, yet they are still dynamic systems with a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. To understand the variability of fluvial systems, numerical models have been developed to quantify flow magnitudes and patterns as the driving force for geomorphic change. Two types of numerical model were assessed for their efficacy in examining the bedrock channel system consisting of a high gradient portion of the Twenty Mile Creek in the Niagara Region of Ontario, Canada. A one-dimensional (1-D) flow model that utilizes energy equations, HEC RAS, was used to determine velocity distributions through the study reach for the mean annual flood (MAF), the 100-year return flood and the 1,000-year return flood. A two-dimensional (2-D) flow model that makes use of Navier-Stokes equations, RMA2, was created with the same objectives. The 2-D modeling effort was not successful due to the spatial complexity of the system (high slope and high variance). The successful 1 -D model runs were further extended using very high resolution geospatial interpolations inherent to the HEC RAS extension, HEC geoRAS. The modeled velocity data then formed the basis for the creation of a geomorphological analysis that focused upon large particles (boulders) and the forces needed to mobilize them. Several existing boulders were examined by collecting detailed measurements to derive three-dimensional physical models for the application of fluid and solid mechanics to predict movement in the study reach. An imaginary unit cuboid (1 metre by 1 metre by 1 metre) boulder was also envisioned to determine the general propensity for the movement of such a boulder through the bedrock system. The efforts and findings of this study provide a standardized means for the assessment of large particle movement in a bedrock fluvial system. Further efforts may expand upon this standardization by modeling differing boulder configurations (platy boulders, etc.) at a high level of resolution.

Inter-temporal Price Discrimination when Imports are Restricted by Quotas

A dominant firm holding import quota engages in inter-temporal price discrimination when facing a competitive fringe engaged in seasonal production. This causes a welfare loss that comes in addition the loss attributable to limitation of imports below the free trade level.

Sur la validation des modèles de séries chronologiques spatio-temporelles multivariées

Dans ce mémoire, nous avons utilisé le logiciel R pour la programmation.

Bootstrap for panel data models with an application to the evaluation of public policies

Le but de cette thèse est d étendre la théorie du bootstrap aux modèles de données de panel. Les données de panel s obtiennent en observant plusieurs unités statistiques sur plusieurs périodes de temps. Leur double dimension individuelle et temporelle permet de contrôler l 'hétérogénéité non observable entre individus et entre les périodes de temps et donc de faire des études plus riches que les séries chronologiques ou les données en coupe instantanée. L 'avantage du bootstrap est de permettre d obtenir une inférence plus précise que celle avec la théorie asymptotique classique ou une inférence impossible en cas de paramètre de nuisance. La méthode consiste à tirer des échantillons aléatoires qui ressemblent le plus possible à l échantillon d analyse. L 'objet statitstique d intérêt est estimé sur chacun de ses échantillons aléatoires et on utilise l ensemble des valeurs estimées pour faire de l inférence. Il existe dans la littérature certaines application du bootstrap aux données de panels sans justi cation théorique rigoureuse ou sous de fortes hypothèses. Cette thèse propose une méthode de bootstrap plus appropriée aux données de panels. Les trois chapitres analysent sa validité et son application. Le premier chapitre postule un modèle simple avec un seul paramètre et s 'attaque aux propriétés théoriques de l estimateur de la moyenne. Nous montrons que le double rééchantillonnage que nous proposons et qui tient compte à la fois de la dimension individuelle et la dimension temporelle est valide avec ces modèles. Le rééchantillonnage seulement dans la dimension individuelle n est pas valide en présence d hétérogénéité temporelle. Le ré-échantillonnage dans la dimension temporelle n est pas valide en présence d'hétérogénéité individuelle. Le deuxième chapitre étend le précédent au modèle panel de régression. linéaire. Trois types de régresseurs sont considérés : les caractéristiques individuelles, les caractéristiques temporelles et les régresseurs qui évoluent dans le temps et par individu. En utilisant un modèle à erreurs composées doubles, l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires et la méthode de bootstrap des résidus, on montre que le rééchantillonnage dans la seule dimension individuelle est valide pour l'inférence sur les coe¢ cients associés aux régresseurs qui changent uniquement par individu. Le rééchantillonnage dans la dimen- sion temporelle est valide seulement pour le sous vecteur des paramètres associés aux régresseurs qui évoluent uniquement dans le temps. Le double rééchantillonnage est quand à lui est valide pour faire de l inférence pour tout le vecteur des paramètres. Le troisième chapitre re-examine l exercice de l estimateur de différence en di¤érence de Bertrand, Duflo et Mullainathan (2004). Cet estimateur est couramment utilisé dans la littérature pour évaluer l impact de certaines poli- tiques publiques. L exercice empirique utilise des données de panel provenant du Current Population Survey sur le salaire des femmes dans les 50 états des Etats-Unis d Amérique de 1979 à 1999. Des variables de pseudo-interventions publiques au niveau des états sont générées et on s attend à ce que les tests arrivent à la conclusion qu il n y a pas d e¤et de ces politiques placebos sur le salaire des femmes. Bertrand, Du o et Mullainathan (2004) montre que la non-prise en compte de l hétérogénéité et de la dépendance temporelle entraîne d importantes distorsions de niveau de test lorsqu'on évalue l'impact de politiques publiques en utilisant des données de panel. Une des solutions préconisées est d utiliser la méthode de bootstrap. La méthode de double ré-échantillonnage développée dans cette thèse permet de corriger le problème de niveau de test et donc d'évaluer correctement l'impact des politiques publiques.

Analyse de la mobilité spatio-temporelle des armes à feu volées au Québec

Dans ce mémoire, les armes à feu impliquées dans la commission de crimes sont étudiées à partir de leur mobilité spatio-temporelle. Afin d’opérationnaliser cette mobilité, deux mesures spécifiques ont été créées, soit le « temps-au-recouvrement » et la « distance-au-recouvrement ». Ces mesures permettent d’analyser les répercussions des armes à feu en circulation illégale sur la formation du marché illégal dans le territoire québécois. Des analyses descriptives ont d’abord été effectuées dans cette étude à partir de trois segments de la banque de données québécoise des armes à feu recouvrées : la banque complète, les armes à feu impliquées dans la commission de crimes et les armes volées. Le sous-groupe de 501 d’armes à feu volées est le seul qui a été soumis à des analyses de régressions multiples sur la mobilité puisque ces armes sont les seules permettant d’avoir plus d’informations sur leur mouvement antérieur au recouvrement par les autorités policières. Les résultats montrent qu’il y a une mobilité spatio-temporelle plus importante chez les armes de poing, celles impliquées dans les crimes de marché, les armes non-enregistrées ainsi que celles sans restriction. Afin de mieux comprendre la dynamique des armes volées, le statut de l’enregistrement s’avère la variable la plus importante puisqu’elle permet de déterminer à quel point ces armes vont être enracinées dans le marché illégal au Québec. Effectivement, les armes volées non-enregistrées sont plus susceptibles de converger vers les marchés criminels, ce qui augmente considérablement leur « durée » de vie et leur mobilité dans la province.