Vegetation history, human impact and climate change during prehistory: an island perspective of the isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull

Results of extensive site reconnaissance on the Isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull, Inner Hebrides are presented. Pollen-stratigraphic records were compiled from a profile from Glen Aros, north-west Mull and from two profiles on Coll located at Loch an t-Sagairt and Caolas an Eilean. Quantification of microscopic charcoal provided records that were used to facilitate a preliminary evaluation of the causal driving mechanisms of vegetation change. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates was used to construct preliminary chronological frameworks for these records. Basal sedimentary deposits at Glen Aros contain pollen records that correspond with vegetation succession typical of the early Holocene dating to c. 11,370 cal BP. Woodland development is a key feature of the pollen records dating to the early Holocene, while records from Loch an t-Sagairt show that blanket mire communities were widespread in north-west Coll by c. 9800 cal BP. The Corylus-rise is dated to c. 10,710 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 9905 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt, with records indicating extensive cover of hazel woodland with birch. All of the major arboreal taxa were recorded, though Quercus and Ulmus were nowhere widespread. Analysis of wood charcoal remains from a Mesolithic site at Fiskary Bay, Coll indicate that Salix and Populus are likely to be under-represented in the pollen records. Reconstructed isopoll maps appear to underplay the importance of alder in western Scotland during the mid-Holocene. Alder-rise expansions in microscopic charcoal dating to c. 7300 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 6510 to 5830 cal BP on Coll provide records of significance to the issue of human-induced burning related to the expansion of alder in Britain. Increasing frequencies in microscopic charcoal are correlated with mid-Holocene records of increasing aridity in western Scotland after c. 7490 cal BP at Glen Aros, 6760 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt and 6590 cal BP at Caolas an Eilean, while several phases of increasing bog surface wetness were detected in the Loch an t-Sagairt archive during the Holocene. At least five phases of small-scale woodland disturbance during the Mesolithic period were identified in the Glen Aros profile dating to c. 11,650 cal BP, 9300 cal BP, 7840 cal BP, 7040 cal BP and 6100 cal BP. The timing of the third phase is coincident with evidence of Mesolithic settlement at Creit Dhu, north-west Mull. Three phases of small-scale woodland disturbance were detected at Loch an t-Sagairt dating to c. 9270 cal BP, 8770 cal BP and 8270 cal BP, all of which overlap chronologically with evidence of Mesolithic activity at Fiskary Bay, Coll. A number of these episodes are aligned chronologically with phases of Holocene climate variability such as the 8.2 K event.

Shifting sand, shifting livelihoods? Reflections on a coastal gold rush in Ghana

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is often characterised as rush-type activity undertaken by people looking to ‘get-rich quick’. An alternative view posits ASM as poverty-driven activity which provides a valuable source of employment to a rural population where agriculture has failed to provide an adequate income. Against this dichotomy, this article critically reviews the short-lived, but high profile, gold rush which occurred on the beaches of Elmina, a fishing town in Ghana’s Central Region. At its peak, more than 1000 people, including local fishermen and career miners from the Western Region and Eastern Region of the country, were mining on the beaches. Drawing on interviews with miners and local business owners, the analysis explores the dynamics of the rush and its implications for understanding the ASM sector in Ghana. The discussion highlights the challenges associated with managing resources in dynamic and heterogeneous contexts, reconciling separate and conflicting sectoral priorities and the need to go beyond simplified and dualistic representations of the sector.

'Where water wells up from the earth’: excavations at the findspot of the Late Bronze Age hoard from Broadward, Shropshire

The paper begins by considering the importance of springs as a focus for votive deposits in Bronze Age Britain. This is not a new idea, but nowhere has this association been examined through the excavation of one of these features. The point is illustrated by excavation at the findspot of a famous group of Late Bronze Age weapons, the Broadward hoard, discovered in 1867. Little was known about the site, where it was found or the character of the original deposit, but a study of contemporary accounts of the hoard, combined with geophysical and topographical surveys, led to small-scale excavation in 2010, which showed that the deposit had most probably been buried in a pit on the edge of a spring. Other finds associated with the spring included an Early Bronze Age macehead, a Roman pot and various Saxon and medieval animal bones. The latest deposit, with a post-medieval carbon date, included a wooden knife or dagger. An adjacent palaeochannel provided an important environmental sequence for this part of the English–Welsh borderland and suggests that the Late Bronze Age hoard had been deposited not far from a settlement. A nearby earthwork enclosure was associated with a clay weight, which may be of similar date. Despite the limited scale of the fieldwork, it illustrates the potential for treating springs associated with artefact finds on the same terms as other archaeological deposits.

Application of biochar for soil remediation

Research into the use of biochar for the remediation of contaminated soils has expanded rapidly over the past 5 yr. We review recent developments in the field and present the findings emanating from small-scale batch sorption experiments, through soil incubations and bioassays, to large-scale field experiments. We discuss the evidence that these experiments have contributed toward a mechanistic understanding of how biochar is capable of remediating soils contaminated with both organic and inorganic contaminants. The effects of biochar pyrolysis temperature, biochar source material, soil type, and contaminant type on the performance of biochars for remediation are identified. The risks associated with applying biochar to uncontaminated agricultural soils are discussed. Knowledge gaps and questions are identified which, if addressed, will considerably advance the application of biochar as a soil remediation tool in the future.

Optimized hash for network path encoding with minimized false positives

The Bloom filter is a space efficient randomized data structure for representing a set and supporting membership queries. Bloom filters intrinsically allow false positives. However, the space savings they offer outweigh the disadvantage if the false positive rates are kept sufficiently low. Inspired by the recent application of the Bloom filter in a novel multicast forwarding fabric, this paper proposes a variant of the Bloom filter, the optihash. The optihash introduces an optimization for the false positive rate at the stage of Bloom filter formation using the same amount of space at the cost of slightly more processing than the classic Bloom filter. Often Bloom filters are used in situations where a fixed amount of space is a primary constraint. We present the optihash as a good alternative to Bloom filters since the amount of space is the same and the improvements in false positives can justify the additional processing. Specifically, we show via simulations and numerical analysis that using the optihash the false positives occurrences can be reduced and controlled at a cost of small additional processing. The simulations are carried out for in-packet forwarding. In this framework, the Bloom filter is used as a compact link/route identifier and it is placed in the packet header to encode the route. At each node, the Bloom filter is queried for membership in order to make forwarding decisions. A false positive in the forwarding decision is translated into packets forwarded along an unintended outgoing link. By using the optihash, false positives can be reduced. The optimization processing is carried out in an entity termed the Topology Manger which is part of the control plane of the multicast forwarding fabric. This processing is only carried out on a per-session basis, not for every packet. The aim of this paper is to present the optihash and evaluate its false positive performances via simulations in order to measure the influence of different parameters on the false positive rate. The false positive rate for the optihash is then compared with the false positive probability of the classic Bloom filter.

Stopping rules for phase II studies

This paper, the second in a series of three papers concerned with the statistical aspects of interim analyses in clinical trials, is concerned with stopping rules in phase II clinical trials. Phase II trials are generally small-scale studies, and may include one or more experimental treatments with or without a control. A common feature is that the results primarily determine the course of further clinical evaluation of a treatment rather than providing definitive evidence of treatment efficacy. This means that there is more flexibility available in the design and analysis of such studies than in phase III trials. This has led to a range of different approaches being taken to the statistical design of stopping rules for such trials. This paper briefly describes and compares the different approaches. In most cases the stopping rules can be described and implemented easily without knowledge of the detailed statistical and computational methods used to obtain the rules.

The impact of a thermodynamic sea-ice module in the COSMO numerical weather prediction model on simulations for the Laptev Sea, Siberian Arctic

Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14-30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies.

Quantifying polynya ice production in the Laptev Sea with the COSMO model

Arctic flaw polynyas are considered to be highly productive areas for the formation of sea-ice throughout the winter season. Most estimates of sea-ice production are based on the surface energy balance equation and use global reanalyses as atmospheric forcing, which are too coarse to take into account the impact of polynyas on the atmosphere. Additional errors in the estimates of polynya ice production may result from the methods of calculating atmospheric energy fluxes and the assumption of a thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The present study uses simulations using the mesoscale weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO), where polynya area is prescribed from satellite data. The polynya area is either assumed to be ice-free or to be covered with thin ice of 10 cm. Simulations have been performed for two winter periods (2007/08 and 2008/09). When using a realistic thin-ice thickness of 10 cm, sea-ice production in Laptev polynyas amount to 30 km3 and 73 km3 for the winters 2007/08 and 2008/09, respectively. The higher turbulent energy fluxes of open-water polynyas result in a 50-70% increase in sea-ice production (49 km3 in 2007/08 and 123 km3 in 2008/09). Our results suggest that previous studies have overestimated ice production in the Laptev Sea.

Impact of atmospheric forcing data on simulations of the Laptev Sea polynya dynamics using the sea-ice ocean model FESOM

The polynyas of the Laptev Sea are regions of particular interest due to the strong formation of Arctic sea-ice. In order to simulate the polynya dynamics and to quantify ice production, we apply the Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model FESOM. In previous simulations FESOM has been forced with daily atmospheric NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 1. For the periods 1 April to 9 May 2008 and 1 January to 8 February 2009 we examine the impact of different forcing data: daily and 6-hourly NCEP reanalyses 1 (1.875° x 1.875°), 6-hourly NCEP reanalyses 2 (1.875° x 1.875°), 6-hourly analyses from the GME (Global Model of the German Weather Service) (0.5° x 0.5°) and high-resolution hourly COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) data (5 km x 5 km). In all FESOM simulations, except for those with 6-hourly and daily NCEP 1 data, the openings and closings of polynyas are simulated in principle agreement with satellite products. Over the fast-ice area the wind fields of all atmospheric data are similar and close to in situ measurements. Over the polynya areas, however, there are strong differences between the forcing data with respect to air temperature and turbulent heat flux. These differences have a strong impact on sea-ice production rates. Depending on the forcing fields polynya ice production ranges from 1.4 km3 to 7.8 km3 during 1 April to 9 May 2011 and from 25.7 km3 to 66.2 km3 during 1 January to 8 February 2009. Therefore, atmospheric forcing data with high spatial and temporal resolution which account for the presence of the polynyas are needed to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying ice production in polynyas.

Impact of Laptev Sea flaw polynyas on the atmospheric boundary layer and ice production using idealized mesoscale simulations

The interaction between polynyas and the atmospheric boundary layer is examined in the Laptev Sea using the regional, non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmosphere model. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is used to consider the response of sea-ice surface temperature to idealized atmospheric forcing. The idealized regimes represent atmospheric conditions that are typical for the Laptev Sea region. Cold wintertime conditions are investigated with sea-ice–ocean temperature differences of up to 40 K. The Laptev Sea flaw polynyas strongly modify the atmospheric boundary layer. Convectively mixed layers reach heights of up to 1200 m above the polynyas with temperature anomalies of more than 5 K. Horizontal transport of heat expands to areas more than 500 km downstream of the polynyas. Strong wind regimes lead to a more shallow mixed layer with strong near-surface modifications, while weaker wind regimes show a deeper, well-mixed convective boundary layer. Shallow mesoscale circulations occur in the vicinity of ice-free and thin-ice covered polynyas. They are forced by large turbulent and radiative heat fluxes from the surface of up to 789 W m−2, strong low-level thermally induced convergence and cold air flow from the orographic structure of the Taimyr Peninsula in the western Laptev Sea region. Based on the surface energy balance we derive potential sea-ice production rates between 8 and 25 cm d−1. These production rates are mainly determined by whether the polynyas are ice-free or covered by thin ice and by the wind strength.

Temporal and spatial variability of surface fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea

Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.

Doing well by talking good? A topic modelling-assisted discourse study of corporate social responsibility

Using the novel technique of topic modelling, this paper examines thematic patterns and their changes over time in a large corpus of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports produced in the oil sector. Whereas previous research on corporate communications has been small-scale or interested in selected lexical aspects and thematic categories identified ex ante, our approach allows for thematic patterns to emerge from the data. The analysis reveals a number of major trends and topic shifts pointing to changing practices of CSR. Nowadays ‘people’, ‘communities’ and ‘rights’ seem to be given more prominence, whereas ‘environmental protection’ appears to be less relevant. Using more established corpus-based methods, we subsequently explore two top phrases - ‘human rights’ and ‘climate change’ that were identified as representative of the shifting thematic patterns. Our approach strikes a balance between the purely quantitative and qualitative methodologies and offers applied linguists new ways of exploring discourse in large collections of texts.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

The complementary exponential power lifetime model

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which can handle bathtub-shaped unimodal increasing and decreasing hazard rate functions The model has three parameters and generalizes the exponential power distribution proposed by Smith and Bain (1975) with the inclusion of an additional shape parameter The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed A small-scale simulation study examines the performance of the likelihood ratio statistics under small and moderate sized samples Three real datasets Illustrate the methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Villasystem för solvärme

Del 1:Innehållsförteckning och korta sammanfattningarDEL 2:Verksamhetsberättelsen för perioden maj 1992 till april 1993 beskriver de arbeten som har gjorts av villasolvärmegruppen på SERC efter den inledande studie (SERC/UCFB-91/0039), där villasolvärmesystem kartlades. Följande arbeten beskrivs:- Utveckling av lågflödessystem och internationella kontakter- Uppbyggnad av värmelaboratorium på SERC- Praktiska test av värmelagringsenheten- Praktiska test av nya systemkomponenter i solvärmekretsen- Datasimulering inkluderande nyutvecklade systemkomponenterI verksamhetsplanen beskrivs huvudmålet för de arbeten som ska utföras under trårsperioden 93 - 96. Mera detaljerat beskrivs de arbeten som ska utföras under budgetåret 1993/94:- Beräkningsprogram för nogrannare dimensionering av finrörsvärmeväxlare- Konstruktion av maskiner för värmeväxlartillverkning- Utveckling av värmeväxlare för tappvarmvatten- Simuleringsberäkningar för hela systemet med PRESIM/TRNSYS.DEL 3:Del 3 innehåller en redovisning av mätresultat för den undersökta kombitanken. Temperaturförloppen på olika höjd i tankens har studerats vid uppvärmning genom solvärmeväxlaren och nedkylning genom tappning av varmvatten. Resultaten diskuteras kvalitativt och redovisas kvantitativt i form av diagram. Mätresultaten på två prototyper av den på SERC utvecklade finrörsvärmeväxlaren redovisas och diskuteras i jämförelse till traditionell värmeväxlare. De erhållna mätresultaten används som ingångsvärden för simuleringsberäkningar med PRESIM/TRNSYS. Problemen med de i PRESIM/TRNSYS befintliga modellerna diskuteras. De utförda modellberäkningarna tillåter en uppskattning av möjliga förbättringar i form av höjd årsverkningsgrad för ett svenskt villasolvärmesystem med kombitank. I del 3 redovisas dessutom de mätningar som har utförts på otika pumpar vilka skulle kunna användas i solfångarkretsen. Sex olika pumpar analyseras och diskuteras. Del 3 har följande rubriker:- Beskrivning av den undersökta lagringstanken- Mätningar på tappvarmvattenväxlare- Mätningar på solvärmeväxlare (kamflänsrör och finrörsvärmeväxlare)- Simuleringsberäkningar- PumpmätningarDEL 4:Del 4 innehåller publicerade rapporter under 1992 och 93 samt patentansökan för SERC?s finrörsvärmeväxlare: - NORTH SUN 1992, Solar Energy at High Latitudes, June 24-26 1992 Trondheim, Norway. Domestic solar heating system - a systematic study i progress Patentansökan på finrorsvärmeväxlare till Patent- och Registreringsverket från 93 01 23. ISES SOLAR WORLD CONGRESS, 23-27 augusti 1993, Budapest, HUNGARY Criteria for cost efficient small scale solar hot water installations.DEL 5:Del 5 hänvisar till rapporterna från IEA Task-1 4 mötena om solfångarsystem i- Hameln, Tyskland, augusti 1992 och- Rom, Italien, januari 1993.I rapporterna beskrivs aktiviteten inom den internationella arbetsgruppen speciellt med hänsyn på utveckling av villasolvärmesystem. I Rom presenterades principlösningen för den på SERC utvecklade finrörsvärmeväxlare. De har publicerats separat som nr 42 och 46 i SERCs rapportserie.