Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Shall we dance? The story of The Radiance Dance Project

Community workers are often described as unsung heroes who work for, with, and alongside others in order to make qualitative differences to the communities they serve. This paper reports on the story of a community based arts educator, Morgan Jai-Morincome, winner of the ACT Adult Learners Week Award for an outstanding program in 2007. This program, referred to as The Radiance Dance Project, is an inclusive performance project open to women with and without disabilities that culminates in a yearly performance. Via an interview with Morgan, observations of a workshop she provided for the women in her 2009 program, and a viewing of a DVD of the 2008 dance performance, this case study provides an illustration of the power of arts based educative processes for breaking down barriers between people with and without disabilities. It draws upon constructs from ethical leadership theory and empowerment theory to interpret her ideas and practices.

Concurrent and prospective associations between physical activity, walking and mental health in older women

Background Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) shows promise for reducing the risk of poor mental health in later life, although gender- and age-specific research is required to clarify this association. This study examined the concurrent and prospective relationships between both LTPA and walking with mental health in older women. Methods Community-dwelling women aged 73–78 years completed mailed surveys in 1999, 2002 and 2005 for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Respondents reported their weekly minutes of walking, moderate LTPA and vigorous LTPA. Mental health was defined as the number of depression and anxiety symptoms, as assessed with the Goldberg Anxiety and Depression Scale (GADS). Multivariable linear mixed models, adjusted for socio-demographic and health-related variables, were used to examine associations between five levels of LTPA (none, very low, low, intermediate and high) and GADS scores. For women who reported walking as their only LTPA, associations between walking and GADS scores were also examined. Women who reported depression or anxiety in 1999 were excluded, resulting in data from 6653 women being included in these analyses. Results Inverse dose–response associations were observed between both LTPA and walking with GADS scores in concurrent and prospective models (p<0.001). Even low levels of LTPA and walking were associated with lowered scores. The lowest scores were observed in women reporting high levels of LTPA or walking. Conclusion The results support an inverse dose–response association between both LTPA and walking with mental health, over 3 years in older women without depression or anxiety.

Geekdom for Grrrls health : Australian undergraduate experiences developing and promoting women’s health in cyberspace

There is an increasing global reliance on the Internet for retrieving information on health, illness, and recovery (Sillence et al, 2007; Laurent et al, 2009; Adams, 2010). People suffering from a vast array of illnesses, conditions, and complaints, as well as healthy travelers seeking advice about safe practices abroad, and teens seeking information about safe sexual practices are all now more likely to go to the internet for information than they are to rely solely on a general practitioner or physician (Santor et al, 2007; Moreno et al, 2009; Bartlett et al, 2010). Women in particular seek advice and support online for a number of health-related concerns regarding issues such as puberty, conception, pregnancy, postnatal depression, mothering, breast-cancer recovery, and ageing healthily (van Zutphen, 2008; Raymond et al, 2005). In keeping with this increasing socio-technological trend, the Women’s Health Unit at the Queensland University of Technology (Q.U.T), Brisbane, Australia, introduced the research, design, and development of online information resources for issues affecting the health of Australian women as an assessment item for students in the undergraduate Public Health curriculum. Students were required to research a particular health issue affecting Australian women, including pregnancy, pregnancy terminations, postnatal depression, returning to the work force after having a baby, breast cancer recovery, chronic disease prevention, health and safety for sex-workers, and ageing healthily. Students were required to design and develop websites that supported people living with these conditions, or who were in these situations. The websites were designed for communicating effectively with both women seeking information about their health, and their health practitioners. The pedagogical challenge inherent in this exercise was twofold: firstly, to encourage students to develop the skills to design and maintain software for online health forums; and secondly, to challenge public health students to go beyond generating ‘awareness’ and imparting health information to developing a nuanced understanding of the worlds and perspectives of their audiences, who require supportive networks and options that resonate with their restrictions, capabilities, and dispositions. This latter challenge spanned the realms of research, communication, and aesthetic design. This paper firstly, discusses an increasing reliance on the Internet by women seeking health-related information and the potential health risks and benefits of this trend. Secondly, it applies a post-structural analysis of the de-centred and mobile female self, as online social ‘spaces’ and networks supersede geographical ‘places’ and hierarchies, with implications for democracy, equality, power, and ultimately women’s health. Thirdly, it depicts the processes (learning reflections) and products (developed websites) created within this Women’s Health Unit by the students. Finally, we review this development in the undergraduate curriculum in terms of the importance of providing students with skills in research, communication, and technology in order to share and implement improved health care and social marketing for women as both recipients and providers of health care in the Internet Age.

Optimization of long rural feeders using a genetic algorithm

This paper describes the optimization of conductor size and the voltage regulator location & magnitude of long rural distribution lines. The optimization minimizes the lifetime cost of the lines, including capital costs and losses while observing voltage drop and operational constraints using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The GA optimization is applied to a real Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) network in regional Queensland and results are presented.

Women who miscarry : the effectiveness and clinical utility of the Kessler 10 questionnaire in screening for ongoing psychological distress

Background: Early pregnancy loss has been linked to enduring psychological morbidity. Aims: This study aimed to investigate the utility of the Kessler 10 (K10) questionnaire as a brief screening instrument to identify women at risk for the development of psychiatric diagnoses three months post-miscarriage. Method: Participants were 117 consecutive women presenting at a public hospital emergency department and receiving a diagnosis of miscarriage. Main outcome measures: K10 screen for psychological distress and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM Disorders to determine psychiatric diagnoses. Results: A majority of women (81.2%) experienced elevated levels of distress initially, 24.8% in the very high range. They were not at increased risk of psychiatric diagnoses at three months compared with the general population; however, they were significantly more likely to report subsyndromal symptoms at this time compared with the general population. The baseline K10 score was the only significant predictor of distress at follow-up (r = 0.45, P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve shows that a cut-off of 14 on the K10 has suitable sensitivity (97%) and specificity (82%) for predicting ongoing psychological distress in women who miscarry. Conclusions: The K10 is effective in identifying women at risk for ensuring psychological symptoms following miscarriage.

Communication patterns within social networks : a case study of Australian women

Based on the perception that “individual bonds to one another is the essence of society” (Fischer, 1982a, p. 2), this paper examines contemporary networks of friends: friendworks, of adult women in an Australian sea change community. Communication patterns are examined drawing on findings from a case study of 26 women aged 35-76 years. Among the case study participants, many have undertaken a ‘sea change’ as adults, which in most cases has led to a significant reconstruction of their friendworks. Location and lifestyle are identified as impacting factors on communication patterns with friends; face-to-face interactions are by far the most frequent and preferred method of communication among the participants. The landline telephone and internet are the main communication methods used to maintain friendships with distant loved ones, while the mobile phone is reported as the communication method employed the least. The infrequency of mobile phone use can be attributed to cost issues, highlighting a discrepancy between these women’s social and communication needs and the current Australian mobile phone policy.

The experiences of African women giving birth in Brisbane, Australia

Our purpose in this research was to uncover first-person descriptions of the birth experiences of African refugee women in Brisbane, Australia, and to explore the common themes that emerged from their experiences. We conducted semistructured interviews with 10 African refugees who had given birth in Brisbane. Essences universal to childbirth such as pain, control, and experiences of caregivers featured prominently in participants’ descriptions of their experiences. Their experiences, however, were further overshadowed by issues such as language barriers, the refugee experience, female genital mutilation (FGM), and encounters with health services with limited cultural competence.

Population ageing in a globalizing labour market : implications for older workers

This article concerns the changing nature of the relationship between age and the labour market. Global demographic, economic and technological changes potentially pose major challenges for older workers trying to maintain a secure attachment to the labour market. Recent public policy has responded by defining concepts such as 'active ageing' which encourage older workers to participate fully within society, including maintaining workforce participation. Older workers' ability to secure quality work within a volatile labour market is considered. While activation approaches are currently popular among policymakers, the notion that older workers will easily avoid a diminution of their employment prospects is challenged.

Property damage crash equivalency factors to solve crash frequency-severity dilemma: Case study on South Korean rural roads

Safety interventions (e.g., median barriers, photo enforcement) and road features (e.g., median type and width) can influence crash severity, crash frequency, or both. Both dimensions—crash frequency and crash severity—are needed to obtain a full accounting of road safety. Extensive literature and common sense both dictate that crashes are not created equal, with fatalities costing society more than 1,000 times the cost of property damage crashes on average. Despite this glaring disparity, the profession has not unanimously embraced or successfully defended a nonarbitrary severity weighting approach for analyzing safety data and conducting safety analyses. It is argued here that the two dimensions (frequency and severity) are made available by intelligently and reliably weighting crash frequencies and converting all crashes to property-damage-only crash equivalents (PDOEs) by using comprehensive societal unit crash costs. This approach is analogous to calculating axle load equivalents in the prediction of pavement damage: for instance, a 40,000-lb truck causes 4,025 times more stress than does a 4,000-lb car and so simply counting axles is not sufficient. Calculating PDOEs using unit crash costs is the most defensible and nonarbitrary weighting scheme, allows for the simple incorporation of severity and frequency, and leads to crash models that are sensitive to factors that affect crash severity. Moreover, using PDOEs diminishes the errors introduced by underreporting of less severe crashes—an added benefit of the PDOE analysis approach. The method is illustrated with rural road segment data from South Korea (which in practice would develop PDOEs with Korean crash cost data).

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.