Flood risk management: What are the main drivers of prevention?

4 p.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.

Testable models of aquatic systems: A NERC special topic for integrating experiments and modelling

A major part of the support for fundamental research on aquatic ecosystems continues to be provided by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funds are released for ”thematic” studies in a selected special topic or programme. ”Testable Models of Aquatic Ecosystems” was a Special Topic of the NERC, initiated in 1995, the aim of which was to promote ecological modelling by making new links between experimental aquatic biologists and state-of-the-art modellers. The Topic covered both marine and freshwater systems. This paper summarises projects on aspects of the responses of individual organisms to the effects of environmental variability, on the assembly, permanence and resilience of communities, and on aspects of spatial models. The authors conclude that the NERC Special Topic has been highly successful in promoting the development and application of models, most particularly through the interplay between experimental ecologists and formal modellers.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Undertreatment of human immunodeficiency virus in psychiatric inpatients: a cross-sectional study of seroprevalence and associated factors

Background: The aims of this study were to evaluate the prevalence of HIV and its associated demographic and clinical factors among psychiatric inpatients of a general hospital. Methods: This was a single-center, observational, cross-sectional study that included patients consecutively admitted to our unit aged 16 years or older and with no relevant cognitive problems. The patients were evaluated using a semistructured interview and an appropriate test for HIV infection. Results: Of the 637 patients who were screened, 546 (86%) who consented to participate were included in the analyses. Twenty-five (4.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-6.8) patients were HIV-positive. The prevalence was higher among patients with substance misuse (17.4%, 95% CI 9.7-28.8). All except one of the 25 patients knew of their seropositive condition prior to participation in the study. Only 14 (56%) of the 25 seropositive patients had previously received pharmacological treatment for their infection. According to the multiple logistic regression analysis, the likelihood of HIV infection was lower in patients with higher levels of education and higher among patients who were single, had history of intravenous drug use, and had an HIV-positive partner, particularly if they did not use condoms. Among the patients with HIV infection, 18 (72%) had a history of suicide attempts compared with 181 (34.7%) of the patients without HIV infection (relative risk 2.1, 95% CI 1.6-2.7; P<0.001). Conclusion: HIV infection is highly prevalent in patients admitted to a psychiatric unit, especially those with a diagnosis of substance misuse. Seropositive patients show very poor treatment adherence. The risk of suicide seems to be very high in this population. Implementing interventions to reduce the suicide risk and improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy and psychotropic medications seems crucial.

Preditores de resiliência ao transtorno de estresse pós-traumático: uma metanálise

Ao contrário da maioria dos transtornos psiquiátricos, o transtorno de estresse pós-traumático (TEPT) apresenta uma fator causal necessário, embora não-suficiente: a exposição a um evento traumático (EPT). Em consequência deste evento desenvolvem-se três dimensões de sintomas: revivescência, esquiva/ entorpecimento emocional e hiperexcitabilidade. Um dos achados mais relevantes das pesquisas epidemiológicas de TEPT é que embora a maioria dos indivíduos seja exposta a um evento traumático em algum momento de sua vida, apenas uma minoria destes vai desenvolver o transtorno. Desta forma, a maior parte dos indivíduos expostos pode ser considerada resiliente. A resiliência consiste, portanto, na capacidade de adaptação eficaz diante de um distúrbio, estresse ou adversidade. Foi realizada uma revisão sistemática com metanálise de estudos longitudinais que investigaram fatores preditores de resiliência ao desenvolvimento de TEPT. A ausência de TEPT foi considerada proxy de resiliência. Em função do grande número de estudos identificados pela estratégia de busca, decidimos post hoc restringir as variáveis preditoras a apoio social (AS), personalidade, autoestima e eventos de vida potencialmente estressantes (EVPE). Apenas vinte artigos preencheram os critérios de elegibilidade. Treze estudos avaliaram apoio social, nove avaliaram personalidade e dois avaliaram EVPE. Nenhum dos trabalhos que pesquisou autoestima era elegível. Dezesseis dos vinte estudos incluídos nesta revisão avaliaram a associação de interesse na população geral. A maioria dos trabalhos avaliou a exposição de interesse após o EPT. Ainda que alguns destes tenham tentado captar a informação sobre a exposição antes do ocorrido, devido à natureza retrospectiva desta aferição, não há como se isentar o potencial efeito do trauma sobre resultado obtido. Além disso, foi observada grande heterogeneidade entre as pesquisas, limitando o número de estudos incluídos nas metanálises. Neuroticismo foi a única dimensão de personalidade avaliada por mais de um estudo. As medidas sumárias resultantes da combinação destes trabalhos revelaram que maior apoio social positivo prediz resiliência ao TEPT enquanto neuroticismo reduz a chance de resiliência. Os dois estudos que investigaram EVPE não puderam ser combinados. Um deles foi inconclusivo e o outro demonstrou associação entre menor número de EVPE e resiliência. Ressaltamos que as medidas sumárias devem ser interpretadas com cautela devido à grande heterogeneidade entre os estudos. Heterogeneidade na forma de avaliação dos fatores preditores de resiliência ao TEPT é compreensível devido à complexidade dos construtos avaliados. Todavia, a falta de padronização do método de operacionalização reduz a comparabilidade dos resultados.

Marine fisheries, genetic effects and biodiversity

Preservation of marine biodiversity deserves serious consideration as almost 65% of the earth's organisms (excluding insects) are marine. There is little knowledge at present on the status of marine biodiversity. However, the seas are an important source of protein for human consumption and genetic diversity is a key factor in ecosystem functioning, stability and resilience. Overfishing and destructive practices may have unalterable impact on marine biodiversity. This paper discusses measures that can be adopted to protect the most productive areas of the marine ecosystem.

Análise de vulnerabilidade ecológica da Bacia Lagos São João, RJ: uma contribuição metodológica para estudos de adaptação às mudanças ambientais globais.

Este trabalho objetiva contribuir para o desenvolvimento de metodologia de análises de vulnerabilidade ecológica de bacias hidrográficas, com foco nos ecossistemas de água doce. Partiu-se de uma base metodológica proposta pela Rede WWF e de sua adaptação para a Bacia Lagos São João. Através da aplicação da metodologia desenvolvida, foi possível realizar uma análise multicriterial que identificou, por um lado, os principais estressores afetando a integridade ecológica da bacia, e sua severidade e frequência, mediante avaliação colaborativa de um painel de especialistas; por outro lado, avaliou-se a sensibilidade da bacia aos estressores selecionados. O uso de ferramentas de sistemas de informação geográfica permitiu espacializar, localizar e quantificar as ameaças (estressores), gerando mapas de risco ecológico, identificando em especial, as unidades mais desequilibradas do território em análise. Estas são indicadas como prioritárias para as ações de conservação dos ecossistemas aquáticos, e dos serviços ecossistêmicos providos, do qual depende grande parte da população da bacia. Esta dissertação apresenta, portanto, duas principais contribuições: um estudo global e preliminar da integridade ecológica da bacia Lagos São João; e, sobretudo, adaptações e detalhamentos da base metodológica desenvolvida pela Rede WWF, replicáveis em outras bacias hidrográficas. Ressalte-se que esta análise constitui etapa preliminar para a definição de estratégias de adaptação e resiliência de bacias hidrográficas às mudanças ambientais globais associadas às variabilidades e mudanças climáticas.

Climate resilience of schools: a case study

Social and political concerns are frequently reflected in the design of school buildings, often in turn leading to the development of technical innovations. One example is a recurrent concern about the physical health of the nation, which has at several points over the last century prompted new design approaches to natural light and ventilation. The most critical concern of the current era is the global, rather than the indoor, environment. The resultant political focus on mitigating climate change has resulted in new regulations, and in turn considerable technical changes in building design and construction. The vanguard of this movement has again been in school buildings, set the highest targets for reducing operational carbon by the previous Government. The current austerity measures have moved the focus to the refurbishment and retrofit of existing buildings, in order to bring them up to the exacting new standards. Meanwhile there is little doubt that climate change is happening already, and that the impacts will be considerable. Climate scientists have increasing confidence in their predictions for the future; if today’s buildings are to be resilient to these changes, building designers will need to understand and design for the predicted climates in order to continue to provide comfortable and healthy spaces through the lifetimes of the buildings. This paper describes the decision processes, and the planned design measures, for adapting an existing school for future climates. The project is at St Faith’s School in Cambridge, and focuses on three separate buildings: a large Victorian block built as a substantial domestic dwelling in 1885, a smaller single storey 1970s block with a new extension, and an as-yet unbuilt single storey block designed to passivhaus principles and using environmentally friendly materials. The implications of climate change have been considered for the three particular issues of comfort, construction, and water, as set out in the report on Design for Future Climate: opportunities for adaptation in the built environment (Gething, 2010). The adaptation designs aim to ensure each of the three very different buildings remains fit for purpose throughout the 21st century, continuing to provide a healthy environment for the children. A forth issue, the reduction of carbon and the mitigation of other negative environmental impacts of the construction work, is also a fundamental aim for the school and the project team. Detailed modelling of both the operational and embodied energy and carbon of the design options is therefore being carried out, in order that the whole life carbon costs of the adaptation design options may be minimised. The project has been funded by the Technology Strategy Board as part of the Design for Future Climates programme; the interdisciplinary team includes the designers working on the current school building projects and the school bursar, supported by researchers from the University of Cambridge Centre for Sustainable Development. It is hoped that lessons from the design process, as well as the solutions themselves, will be transferable to other buildings in similar climatic regions.

Group size effects on foraging and vigilance in migratory Tibetan antelope

Large group sizes have been hypothesized to decrease predation risk and increase food competition. We investigated group size effects on vigilance and foraging behaviour during the migratory period in female Tibetan antelope Pantholops hodgsoni, in the Kekexili Nature Reserve of Qinghai Province, China. During June to August, adult female antelope and yearling females gather in large migratory groups and cross the Qinghai-Tibet highway to calving grounds within the Nature Reserve and return to Qumalai county after calving. Large groups of antelope aggregate in the migratory corridor where they compete for limited food resources and attract the attention of mammalian and avian predators and scavengers. We restricted our sampling to groups of less than 30 antelopes and thus limit our inference accordingly. Focal-animal sampling was used to record the behaviour of the free-ranging antelope except for those with lambs. Tibetan antelope spent more time foraging in larger groups but frequency of foraging bouts was not affected by group size. Conversely, the time spent vigilant and frequency of vigilance bouts decreased with increased group size. We suggest that these results are best explained by competition for food and risk of predation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breeding behavior under temporal risk of predation in male root voles (Microtus oeconomus)

We examined breeding behavior responses of male root votes (Microtus oeconomus) to temporal risk of predation by using acute and chronic exposure to predator odor. The 2 series of exposure experiments provided 2 types of temporal patterns of risk: continuous safety with a brief period of risk and Sustained risk with a brief period of safety. Male root votes that were acutely exposed to predator odor for I h suppressed their breeding behavior, but bred immediately after exposure to control odor for I h. Those chronically exposed to predator odor for 20 days maintained behavioral suppression during the 1-h period of exposure to control odor. Acutely exposed males did not change their physiological patterns of breeding, but those chronically exposed to predator odor had reduced testosterone concentration and epididymis index. Our results indicate that breeding behavior in a given situation depends on the overall patterns of risk experienced by male root votes, and the acute and chronic stress responses that affect reproduction are responsible for different behavioral responses to the 2 types of temporal patterns of risk. We also discuss the reasons for conflicting results about breeding suppression of votes between previous studies in the laboratory and the field.

Program, abstracts and related documents.

The context: Soil biodiversity and sustainable agriculture; Abstracts - Theme 1: Monitoring and assessment: Bioindicators of soil health: assessment and monitoring for sustainable agriculture; Practical tools to measure soil health and their use by farmers; Biological soil quality from biomass to biodiversity - importance and resilience to management stress and disturbance; Integrated management of plant-parasitic nematodes in maize-bean cropping systems; Microbial quantitative and qualitative changes in soils under different crops and tillage management systems in Brazil; Diversity in the rhizobia associated with Phaseolus vulgaris L: in Ecuador and comparisons with Mexican bean rhizobia; Sistemas integrados ganadería-agricultura en Cuba; Soil macrofauna as bioindicator of soil quality; Biological functioning of cerrado soils; Hydrolysis of fluorescein diacetate as a soil quality indicator in different pasture systems; Soil management and soil macrofauna communities at Embrapa Soybean, Londrina, Brazil; Soil macrofauna in a 24 - year old no-tillage system in Paraná, Brazil; Invertebrate macrofauna of soils inpastures under different forms of management in the cerrado (Brazil); Soil tillage modifies the invertebrate soil macrofauna community; Soil macrofauna in various tillage and land use systems on an oxisols near Londrina, Paraná, Brazil; Interference of agricultural systems on soil macrofauna; Scarab beetle-grub holes in various tillage and crop management systems at Embrapa Soybean, Londrina, Brazil; Biological management of agroecosystems; Soil biota and nutrient dynamics through litterfall in agroforestry system in Rondônia, Amazônia, Brazil; Soil-C stocks and earthworm diversity of native and introduced pastures in Veracruz, Mexico; Theme 2 : Adaptive management: Some thoughts on the effects and implications of the transition from weedy multi-crop to wead-free mono-crop systems in Africa; Towards sustainable agriculture with no-tillage and crop rotation systems in South Brazil; Effect of termites on crusted soil rehabilitation in the Sahel; Management of macrofauna in traditional and conventional agroforestry systems from India with special reference to termites and earthworms; Adaptive management for redeveloping traditional agroecosystems; Conservation and sustainable use of soil biodiversity: learning with master nature!; Convergence of sciences: inclusive technology innovation processes for better integrated crop/vegetation, soil and biodiversity management; Potential for increasing soil biodiversity in agroecosystems; Biological nitrogen fixation and sustainability in the tropics; Theme 3: Research and innovation: Plant flavonoids and cluster roots as modifiers of soil biodiversity; The significance of biological diversity in agricultural soil for disease suppressiveness and nutrient retention; Linking above - and belowground biodiversity: a comparison of agricultural systems; Insect-pests in biologically managed oil and crops: the experience at ICRISAT; Sistemas agricolas micorrizados en Cuba; The effect of velvetbean (Mucuna pruriens) on the tropical earthworm Balanteodrilus pearsei: a management option for maize crops in the Mexican humid tropics; The potential of earthworms and organic matter quality in the rehabilitation of tropical soils; Research and innovation in biological management of soil ecosystems; Application of biodynamic methods in the Egyptian cotton sector; Theme 4: Capacity building and mainstreaming: Soil ecology and biodiversity: a quick scan of its importance for government policy in The Netherlands; Agrotechnological transfer of legume inoculants in Eastern and Southern Africa; Agricultura urbana en Cuba; Soil carbon sequestration for sustaining agricultural production and improving the environment; Conservation and sustainable management of below-ground biodiversity: the TSBF-BGBD network project; The tropical soil biology and fertility institute of CIAT (TSBF); South-South initiative for training and capacity building for the management of soil biology/biodiversity; Strategies to facilititate development and adoption of integrated resource management for sustainable production and productivity improvement; The challenge program on biological nitrogen fixation (CPBNF); Living soil training for farmers: improving knowledge and skills in soil nutrition management; Do we need an inter-governmental panel on land and soil (IPLS)? Protection and sustainable use of biodiversity of soils; Cases Studies -- Plant parasitic nematodes associated with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and integrated management approaches; Agrotechnological transfer of legume inoculants in Eastern and Southern Africa; Restoring soil fertility and enhancing productivity in Indian tea plantations with earthworms and organic fertilizers; Managing termites and organic resources to improve soil productivity in the Sahel; Overview and case studies on biological nitrogen fixation: perspectives and limitations; Soil biodiversity and sustainable agriculture: an overview.

Radon and King Solomons Miners: Faynan Orefeild, Jordanian desert

Grattan, J. Gilmore, G. Gilbertson, D. Pyatt, F.B. HUnt, C. McLaren, S. Phillips, P. Denman, A. Radon and King Solomons Miners: Paynan Orefield, Jordanian Desert. The Science of the Total Environment. 2004 319 pp 99-113

Re-focusing risk assessment in forensic mental health nursing.

Editorial in the Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing, 2015, 22(7)