Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

A Kilkenny Post-primary School Survey: A Survey of Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviour Relevant to Noncommunicable Disease

The Kilkenny post-primary school survey was carried out in the spring of 1987 on a stratified random sample of 445 post-primary school children in county Kilkenny. The study was designed as the basis for evaluation of the Kilkenny Health Project's school health education programme. The study examined knowledge, attitudes and behaviour relevant to non-communicable disease. The results showed that levels of adolescent alcohol and tobacco use were similar to those found in neighbouring countries. Smoking and drinking increased during adolescence and were more prevalent in males. Physical activity decreased throughout adolescence and a high intake of 'snack' foods was found. Health related knowledge levels were high but were not related to behaviour; however attitudes were found to be consistent with behaviour. These and other results are discussed. Literature relevant to school health education and the aetiology of non-communicable disease is described, with particular reference to Ireland. The evidence supporting health promotion intervention programmes against non-communicable disease is examined and WHO and Irish policies on health promotion outlined. The importance of health and disease prevention programmes commencing in youth is emphasised and the suitability and efficacy of school health education programmes are noted. A number of school health education programmes world-wide are described. The role of the community physician in relation to such programmes is discussed. Finally recommendations are made and areas for further research are made.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

National Alcohol Policy Ireland

The National Alcohol Policy is directed at reducing the prevalence of alcohol-related problems through an emphasis on moderation in alcohol consumption. The importance of a comprehensive alcohol policy was highlighted when Ireland endorsed the European Charter on Alcohol in December 1995 along with 48 other Member States of the WHO European Region. The alcohol-related problems are multidimensional, therefore the solutions most be multi-sectoral. This means that commitment to the National Alcohol Policy must be on the agenda of policy makers in all sectors and at all levels. An Alcohol Policy requires both environmental and individual strategies. There is strong evidence that policies which influence access to alcohol, control pricing through taxation and other public health measures, can have a positive impact on curtailing the health and social burden resulting from drinking (Edwards et al. 1994). However, a key to the effectiveness of such strategies is public support, enforcement and maintenance of the policies. In examining the rationale for a National Alcohol Policy a number of elements have been identified. Research is urgently required to identify attitudes and patterns of alcohol consumption across the population and within sub-groups of the population. Based on sound research, a sensible drinking message of Less is Better should form an educational empowerment programme with regional and local initiatives as a required and integral part of such a campaign. A health education programme in all schools should be part of the core curriculum. The availability and effectiveness of treatment services need to be established. Action to contain the availability of alcohol could be achieved by reducing the number of special exemptions for longer opening hours and controlling access to underage drinking by ID schemes nation-wide. The enforcement of drink driving legislation including random breath testing needs to be continued to reduce alcohol-related traffic accidents. All levels of the Drinks Industry should recognise that people have the right to be safeguarded from pressures to drink. Finally, a National Alcohol Policy could be co-ordinated by a wider National Substance Use Surveillance Unit.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Factors associated with schistosomiasis mansoni in a population from the municipality of Jaboticatubas, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Jaboticatubas is a municipality in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte which has been a target of a wide media release as "the capital of schistosomiasis" since the 1960's. In order to give support to a work based on an integrated control, we sought to identify the disease determinants at the site. A transversal study was carried out aimed at identifying prevalence rates of the disease and factors associated with the infection in the district of São José de Almeida, and two close localities, Cipó Velho and São José da Serra, all of them located in the municipality of Jaboticatubas. A parasitological survey was performed, applying the Kato-Katz method with two slides per sample in 1186 schoolchildren which represents 77% of all registered pupils in four public schools in 2001. Among these schoolchildren a number of 101 (8.6%) prooved positive for Schistosoma mansoni eggs in their stool samples. A total of 64 families, whose schoolchildren had shown to be positive for schistosomiasis, also undertook examinations. As negative control, a random sample was collected from the 206 families, whose children had proven negative for schistosomiasis. The prevalence among 270 families (1304 people) was 12%. To assess those who continued to have contact with possibly contaminated water, 1061 (81.4%) people of the 270 families were interviewed. A multivariate analysis identified the following factors associated with the infection: time of residence in the area (short period), garbage disposal (use of deserted areas), gender (male), age (from 10 to 29 years), and water contact (daily and weekly). Further analysis of these factors revealed a close correlation between water contact and the disease, with a positive significant frequency concerning almost all those items. Depending on gender and age significant variations of water contact patterns associated with leisure and professional activities were found. A malacological survey on water collections in the area identified snails of the species Biomphalaria straminea and B. glabrata. The latter showed 17 (0.6%) specimens positive for S. mansoni. Qualitative studies have complemented such evidences, which allowed us to design a reference picture and specific indicators of the disease for the local population. Those data provided the essential information to continue the development of an already ongoing educative process, as well as projects on environmental improvements.

Genetic characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi natural clones from the state of Paraíba, Brazil

Eighteen Trypanosoma cruzi stocks from the state of Paraíba, Brazil, isolated from man, wild mammals, and triatomine bugs were studied by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis and random primed amplified polymorphic DNA. Despite the low number of stocks, a notable genetic, genotypic, and phylogenetic diversity was recorded. The presence of the two main phylogenetic subdivisions, T. cruzi I and II, was recorded. The strong linkage disequilibrium observed in the population under survey suggests that T. cruzi undergoes predominant clonal evolution in this area too, although this result should be confirmed by a broader sample. The pattern of clonal variation does not suggests a recent origin by founder effect with a limited number of different genotypes.

The effect of patient, provider and financing regulations on the intensity of ambulatory physical therapy episodes : a multilevel analysis based on routinely available data

Background: Many studies have found considerable variations in the resource intensity of physical therapy episodes. Although they have identified several patient-and provider-related factors, few studies have examined their relative explanatory power. We sought to quantify the contribution of patients and providers to these differences and examine how effective Swiss regulations are (nine-session ceiling per prescription and bonus for first treatments). Methods: Our sample consisted of 87,866 first physical therapy episodes performed by 3,365 physiotherapists based on referrals by 6,131 physicians. We modeled the number of visits per episode using a multilevel log linear regression with crossed random effects for physiotherapists and physicians and with fixed effects for cantons. The three-level explanatory variables were patient, physiotherapist and physician characteristics. Results: The median number of sessions was nine (interquartile range 6-13). Physical therapy use increased with age, women, higher health care costs, lower deductibles, surgery and specific conditions. Use rose with the share of nine-session episodes among physiotherapists or physicians, but fell with the share of new treatments. Geographical area had no influence. Most of the variance was explained at the patient level, but the available factors explained only 4% thereof. Physiotherapists and physicians explained only 6% and 5% respectively of the variance, although the available factors explained most of this variance. Regulations were the most powerful factors. Conclusion: Against the backdrop of abundant physical therapy supply, Swiss financial regulations did not restrict utilization. Given that patient-related factors explained most of the variance, this group should be subject to closer scrutiny. Moreover, further research is needed on the determinants of patient demand.

Identification of a genetic marker associated with the resistance to Schistosoma mansoni infection using random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis

In schistosomiasis, the host/parasite interaction remains not completely understood. Many questions related to the susceptibility of snails to infection by respective trematode still remain unanswered. The control of schistosomiasis requires a good understanding of the host/parasite association. In this work, the susceptibility/resistance to Schistosoma mansoni infection within Biomphalaria alexandrina snails were studied starting one month post infection and continuing thereafter weekly up to 10 weeks after miracidia exposure. Genetic variations between susceptible and resistant strains to Schistosoma infection within B. alexandrina snails using random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis technique were also carried out. The results showed that 39.8% of the examined field snails were resistant, while 60.2% of these snails showed high infection rates.In the resistant genotype snails, OPA-02 primer produced a major low molecular weight marker 430 bp. Among the two snail strains there were interpopulational variations, while the individual specimens from the same snail strain, either susceptible or resistant, record semi-identical genetic bands. Also, the resistant character was ascendant in contrast to a decline in the susceptibility of snails from one generation to the next.

The additive genetic variance after bottlenecks is affected by the number of loci involved in epistatic interactions.

We investigated the role of the number of loci coding for a neutral trait on the release of additive variance for this trait after population bottlenecks. Different bottleneck sizes and durations were tested for various matrices of genotypic values, with initial conditions covering the allele frequency space. We used three different types of matrices. First, we extended Cheverud and Routman's model by defining matrices of "pure" epistasis for three and four independent loci; second, we used genotypic values drawn randomly from uniform, normal, and exponential distributions; and third we used two models of simple metabolic pathways leading to physiological epistasis. For all these matrices of genotypic values except the dominant metabolic pathway, we find that, as the number of loci increases from two to three and four, an increase in the release of additive variance is occurring. The amount of additive variance released for a given set of genotypic values is a function of the inbreeding coefficient, independently of the size and duration of the bottleneck. The level of inbreeding necessary to achieve maximum release in additive variance increases with the number of loci. We find that additive-by-additive epistasis is the type of epistasis most easily converted into additive variance. For a wide range of models, our results show that epistasis, rather than dominance, plays a significant role in the increase of additive variance following bottlenecks.

A population genetics study of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) from Colombia based on random amplified polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction and amplified fragment lenght polymorphism markers

The genetic variation and population structure of three populations of Anopheles darlingi from Colombia were studied using random amplified polymorphic markers (RAPDs) and amplified fragment length polymorphism markers (AFLPs). Six RAPD primers produced 46 polymorphic fragments, while two AFLP primer combinations produced 197 polymorphic fragments from 71 DNA samples. Both of the evaluated genetic markers showed the presence of gene flow, suggesting that Colombian An. darlingi populations are in panmixia. Average genetic diversity, estimated from observed heterozygosity, was 0.374 (RAPD) and 0.309 (AFLP). RAPD and AFLP markers showed little evidence of geographic separation between eastern and western populations; however, the F ST values showed high gene flow between the two western populations (RAPD: F ST = 0.029; Nm: 8.5; AFLP: F ST = 0.051; Nm: 4.7). According to molecular variance analysis (AMOVA), the genetic distance between populations was significant (RAPD:phiST = 0.084; AFLP:phiST = 0.229, P < 0.001). The F ST distances and AMOVAs using AFLP loci support the differentiation of the Guyana biogeographic province population from those of the Chocó-Magdalena. In this last region, Chocó and Córdoba populations showed the highest genetic flow.

Genetic diversity of environmental Aspergillus flavus strains in the state of São Paulo, Brazil by random amplified polymorphic DNA

Aspergillus flavus is a very important toxigenic fungus that produces aflatoxins, a group of extremely toxic substances to man and animals. Toxigenic fungi can grow in feed crops, such as maize, peanuts, and soybeans, being thus of high concern for public health. There are toxigenic and non-toxigenic A. flavus variants, but the necessary conditions for expressing the toxigenic potential are not fully understood. Therefore, we have studied total-DNA polymorphism from toxigenic and non toxigenic A. flavus strains isolated from maize crops and soil at two geographic locations, 300 km apart, in the Southeast region of Brazil. Total DNA from each A. flavus isolate was extracted and subjected to polymerase chain reaction amplification with five randomic primers through the RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) technique. Phenetic and cladistic analyses of the data, based on bootstrap analyses, led us to conclude that RAPD was not suitable to discriminate toxigenic from non toxigenic strains. But the present results support the use of RAPD for strain characterization, especially for preliminary evaluation over extensive collections.

Copy number variation and chromatin structure

The functional consequences of structural variation in the human genome range from adaptation, to phenotypic variation, to predisposition to diseases. Copy number variation (CNV) was shown to influence the phenotype by modifying, in a somewhat dose-dependent manner, the expression of genes that map within them, as well as that of genes located on their flanks. To assess the possible mechanism(s) behind this neighboring effect, we compared histone modification status of cell lines from patients affected by Williams-Beuren, Williams-Beuren region duplication, Smith-Magenis or DiGeorge Syndrome and control individuals using a high-throughput version of chromatin immuno-precipitation method (ChIP), called ChlP-seq. We monitored monomethylation of lysine K20 on histone H4 and trimethylation of lysine K27 on histone H3, as proxies for open and condensed chromatin, respectively. Consistent with the changes in expression levels observed for multiple genes mapping on the entire length of chromosomes affected by structural variants, we also detected regions with modified histone status between samples, up- and downstream from the critical regions, up to the end of the rearranged chromosome. We also gauged the intrachromosomal interactions of these cell lines utilizing chromosome conformation capture (4C-seq) technique. We observed that a set of genes flanking the Williams-Beuren Syndrome critical region (WBSCR) were often looping together, possibly forming an interacting cluster with each other and the WBSCR. Deletion of the WBSCR disrupts the expression of this group of flanking genes, as well as long-range interactions between them and the rearranged interval. We conclude, that large genomic rearrangements can lead to changes in the state of the chromatin spreading far away from the critical region, thus possibly affecting expression globally and as a result modifying the phenotype of the patients. - Les conséquences fonctionnelles des variations structurelles dans le génome humain sont vastes, allant de l'adaptation, en passant par les variations phénotypiques, aux prédispositions à certaines maladies. Il a été démontré que les variations du nombre de copies (CNV) influencent le phénotype en modifiant, d'une manière plus ou moins dose-dépendante, l'expression des gènes se situant à l'intérieur de ces régions, mais également celle des gènes se trouvant dans les régions flanquantes. Afin d'étudier les mécanismes possibles sous-jacents à cet effet de voisinage, nous avons comparé les états de modification des histones dans des lignées cellulaires dérivées de patients atteints du syndrome de Williams-Beuren, de la duplication de la région Williams-Beuren, du syndrome de Smith-Magenis ou du syndrome de Di- George et d'individus contrôles en utilisant une version haut-débit de la méthode d'immunoprécipitation de la chromatine (ChIP), appelée ChIP-seq. Nous avons suivi la mono-méthylation de la lysine K20 sur l'histone H4 et la tri-méthylation de la lysine K27 sur l'histone H3, marqueurs respectifs de la chromatine ouverte et fermée. En accord avec les changements de niveaux d'expression observés pour de multiples gènes tout le long des chromosomes affectés par les CNVs, nous avons aussi détecté des régions présentant des modifications d'histones entre les échantillons, situées de part et d'autre des régions critiques, jusqu'aux extrémités du chromosome réarrangé. Nous avons aussi évalué les interactions intra-chromosomiques ayant lieu dans ces cellules par l'utilisation de la technique de capture de conformation des chromosomes (4C-seq). Nous avons observé qu'un groupe de gènes flanquants la région critique du syndrome de Williams-Beuren (WBSCR) forment souvent une boucle, constituant un groupe d'interactions privilégiées entre ces gènes et la WBSCR. La délétion de la WBSCR perturbe l'expression de ce groupe de gènes flanquants, mais également les interactions à grande échelle entre eux et la région réarrangée. Nous en concluons que les larges réarrangements génomiques peuvent aboutir à des changements de l'état de la chromatine pouvant s'étendre bien plus loin que la région critique, affectant donc potentiellement l'expression de manière globale et ainsi modifiant le phénotype des patients.

Number of transferred embryos: how to reduce multiple pregnancies.

Because the diagnostic tools for predicting whether an early cleavage stage embryo can lead to a viable pregnancy are still elusive, transfer of more than one embryo remains quite common. However, the only way to reduce multiple pregnancies, considered as the main adverse effect of assisted reproductive technology, is to transfer a single embryo. In countries such as Switzerland and Germany, the law allows cryopreservation only at the 2-pronuclear stage. This restricts considerably the possibility of selecting the embryos to be transferred. Therefore, a good cryopreservation program at the 2-pronuclear stage is an essential tool to optimize the efficiency of in vitro fertilization (IVF). We therefore recommend the Cumulated Singleton Delivery Rate (CUSIDERA) as a measure of standard IVF efficiency. This rate averages approximately 23.5% when calculated over the last 10 years in our unit and reaches a value above 35% for patients with more than 10 zygotes. Elective single-embryo transfers and the decrease of iatrogenic multiple pregnancies in IVF remain dependent on better prognostic tools for the appropriate selection of patients, gametes, and zygotes.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Frequency of Fabry disease in male and female haemodialysis patients in Spain

BACKGROUND: Fabry disease (FD), an X-linked lysosomal storage disorder, is caused by a reduced activity of the lysosomal enzyme alpha-galactosidase A. The disorder ultimately leads to organ damage (including renal failure) in males and females. However, heterozygous females usually present a milder phenotype with a later onset and a slower progression. METHODS: A combined enzymatic and genetic strategy was used, measuring the activity of alpha-galactosidase A and genotyping the alpha-galactosidase A gene (GLA) in dried blood samples (DBS) of 911 patients undergoing haemodialysis in centers across Spain. RESULTS: GLA alterations were found in seven unrelated patients (4 males and 3 females). Two novel mutations (p.Gly346AlafsX347 and p.Val199GlyfsX203) were identified as well as a previously described mutation, R118C. The R118C mutation was present in 60% of unrelated patients with GLA causal mutations. The D313Y alteration, considered by some authors as a pseudo-deficiency allele, was also found in two out of seven patients. CONCLUSIONS: Excluding the controversial D313Y alteration, FD presents a frequency of one in 182 individuals (0.55%) within this population of males and females undergoing haemodialysis. Moreover, our findings suggest that a number of patients with unexplained and atypical symptoms of renal disease may have FD. Screening programmes for FD in populations of individuals presenting severe kidney dysfunction, cardiac alterations or cerebrovascular disease may lead to the diagnosis of FD in those patients, the study of their families and eventually the implementation of a specific therapy.

A topological invariant to predict the three-dimensional writhe of ideal configurations of knots and links.

We present herein a topological invariant of oriented alternating knots and links that predicts the three-dimensional (3D) writhe of the ideal geometrical configuration of the considered knot/link. The fact that we can correlate a geometrical property of a given configuration with a topological invariant supports the notion that the ideal configuration contains important information about knots and links. The importance of the concept of ideal configuration was already suggested by the good correlation between the 3D writhe of ideal knot configurations and the ensemble average of the 3D writhe of random configurations of the considered knots. The values of the new invariant are quantized: multiples of 4/7 for links with an odd number of components (including knots) and 2/7 plus multiples of 4/7 for links with an even number of components.