Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Relative dispersion of intravascular transit times during isolated human limb perfusions for recurrent melanoma

Aims We have characterized the relative dispersion of vascular and extravascular markers in the limbs of three patients undergoing isolated limb perfusions with the cytotoxic melphalan for recurrent malignant melanoma both before and after melphalan dosing. Methods A bolus of injectate containing [Cr-51] labelled red blood cells, [C-14]-sucrose and [H-3]-water was injected into an iliac or femoral artery and outflow samples collected at 1 s intervals by a fraction collector. The radioactivity due to each isotype was analysed by either gamma [Cr-51] or beta [C-14 and H-3] counting. The moments of the outflow fraction-time profiles were estimated by a nonparametric (numerical integration) method and a parametric model (sum of two inverse Gaussian functions). Results The availability, mean transit time and normalised variance (CV2) obtained for labelled red blood cells, sucrose and water were similar before and after melphalan dosing and with the two methods of calculation but varied between the patients. Conclusions The vascular space is not well-stirred but characterized by a CV2 similar that reported previously for in situ rat hind limb and rat liver perfusions. A flow-limited blood-tissue exchange was observed for the permeating indicators. Administration of melphalan did not influence the distribution characteristics of the indicators.

Optimizing the CAMCOG test in the screening for mild cognitive impairment and incipient dementia: saving time with relevant domains

Objective: To identify the CAMCOG sub-items that best contribute for the identification of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and incipient Alzheimer`s disease (AD) in clinical practice. Methods: Cross-sectional assessment of 272 older adults (98 MCI, 82 AD, and 92 controls) with a standardized neuropsychological battery and the CAMCOG schedule. Backward logistic regression analysis with diagnosis (MCI and controls) as dependent variable and the sub-items of the CAMCOG as independent variable was carried out to determine the CAMCOG sub-items that predicted the diagnosis of MCI. Results: Lower scores on Language, Memory, Praxis, and Calculation CAMCOG sub-items were significantly associated with the diagnosis of MCI. A composite score obtained by the sum of these scores significantly discriminated MCI patients from comparison groups. This reduced version of the CAMCOG showed similar diagnostic accuracy than the original schedule for the identification of patients with MCI as compared to controls (AUC = 0.80 +/- 0.03 for the reduced CAMCOG; AUC = 0.79 +/- 0.03 for the original CAMCOG). Conclusion: This reduced version of the CAMCOG had similar diagnostic properties as the original CAMCOG and was faster and easier to administer, rendering it more suitable for the screening of subtle cognitive deficits in general clinical practice. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Direct measurement of instantaneous source speed for a HDR brachytherapy unit using an optical fiber based detector

Purpose: Several attempts to determine the transit time of a high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy unit have been reported in the literature with controversial results. The determination of the source speed is necessary to accurately calculate the transient dose in brachytherapy treatments. In these studies, only the average speed of the source was measured as a parameter for transit dose calculation, which does not account for the realistic movement of the source, and is therefore inaccurate for numerical simulations. The purpose of this work is to report the implementation and technical design of an optical fiber based detector to directly measure the instantaneous speed profile of a (192)Ir source in a Nucletron HDR brachytherapy unit. Methods: To accomplish this task, we have developed a setup that uses the Cerenkov light induced in optical fibers as a detection signal for the radiation source moving inside the HDR catheter. As the (192)Ir source travels between two optical fibers with known distance, the threshold of the induced signals are used to extract the transit time and thus the velocity. The high resolution of the detector enables the measurement of the transit time at short separation distance of the fibers, providing the instantaneous speed. Results: Accurate and high resolution speed profiles of the 192Ir radiation source traveling from the safe to the end of the catheter and between dwell positions are presented. The maximum and minimum velocities of the source were found to be 52.0 +/- 1.0 and 17.3 +/- 1:2 cm/s. The authors demonstrate that the radiation source follows a uniformly accelerated linear motion with acceleration of vertical bar a vertical bar = 113 cm/s(2). In addition, the authors compare the average speed measured using the optical fiber detector to those obtained in the literature, showing deviation up to 265%. Conclusions: To the best of the authors` knowledge, the authors directly measured for the first time the instantaneous speed profile of a radiation source in a HDR brachytherapy unit traveling from the unit safe to the end of the catheter and between interdwell distances. The method is feasible and accurate to implement on quality assurance tests and provides a unique database for efficient computational simulations of the transient dose. (C) 2010 American Association of Physicists in Medicine. [DOI: 10.1118/1.3483780]

Harris-Benedict equation for critically ill patients: Are there differences with indirect calorimetry?

Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the measured energy expenditure (EE) and the estimated basal EE (BEE) in critically ill patients. Materials and Methods: Seventeen patients from an intensive care unit were randomly evaluated. Indirect calorimetry was performed to calculate patient`s EE, and BEE was estimated by the Harris-Benedict formula. The metabolic state (EE/BEE x 100) was determined according to the following criteria: hypermetabolism, more than 130%; normal metabolism, between 90% and 130%; and hypometabolism, less than 90%. To determine the limits of agreement between EE and BEE, we performed a Bland-Altman analysis. Results: The average EE of patients was 6339 +/- 1119 kJ/d. Two patients were hypermetabolic (11.8%), 4 were hypometabolic (23.5%), and 11 normometabolic (64.7%). Bland-Altman analysis showed a mean of -126 +/- 2135 kJ/d for EE and BEE. Only one patient was outside the limits of agreement between the 2 methods (indirect calorimetry and Harris-Benedict). Conclusions: The calculation of energy needs can be done with the equation of Harris-Benedict associated with lower values of correction factors (approximately 10%) to avoid overfeeding, with constant monitoring of anthropometric and biochemical parameters to assess the nutritional changing and adjust the infusion of energy. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Arteriovenous Fistula Puncture: An Essential Factor for Hemodialysis Efficiency

Objective. To determine the blood recirculation ratio in the vascular access of patients on hemodialysis, and to calculate the Kt/Vs obtained with the different techniques of arteriovenous fistula punctures. Materials and Methods. A total of 174 patients were divided according to the technique used for arteriovenous fistula puncture: group 1, needles in opposite directions and with a distance of 5 cm or more between them; group 2, needles in opposite directions but with a distance of less than 5 cm; group 3, unidirectional needles with both directed to the heart and with a distance of 5 cm or more; group 4, unidirectional needles but separated by a distance of less than 5 cm between needles; and group 5, patients carrying a temporary venous catheter. Blood samples were collected for urea analysis, pre and post-dialysis for Kt/V rate, and other samples for calculation of the access recirculation. Results. Group 1 presented the lowest rate of access recirculation (8.51 +/- 4.90%) and the best Kt/V (1.71 +/- 0.36), while group 4 presented the worst access recirculation (20.68 +/- 4.92%) and Kt/V (1.16 +/- 0.26). All groups differed significantly from group 4 (p < 0.05), except group 5 with regard for Kt/V parameter. Discussion. The technique of arteriovenous fistula puncture is an essential factor to decrease the access recirculation and assure better results of measurement of hemodialysis adequacy. On the basis of the results obtained, insertion of the needles in the same direction and with a distance of less than 5 cm between them should be avoided.

Study of the spatial distribution of the absorbed dose in blood volumes irradiated using a teletherapy unit

Blood irradiation can be performed using a dedicated blood irradiator or a teletherapy unit. A thermal device providing appropriate storage conditions during blood components irradiation with a teletherapy unit has been recently proposed. However, the most appropriated volume of the thermal device was not indicated. The goal of this study was to indicate the most appropriated blood volume for irradiation using a teletherapy unit in order to minimize both the dose heterogeneity in the volume and the blood irradiation time using these equipments. Theoretical and experimental methods were used to study the dose distribution in the blood volume irradiated using a linear accelerator and a cobalt-60 therapy machine. The calculation of absorbed doses in the middle plane of cylindrical acrylic volumes was accomplished by a treatment planning system. Experimentally, we also used cylindrical acrylic phantoms and thermoluminescent dosimeters to confirm the calculated doses. The data obtained were represented by isodose curves. We observed that an irradiation volume should have a height of 28 cm and a diameter of 28 cm and a height of 35 cm and a diameter of 35 cm, when the irradiation is to be performed by a linear accelerator and a cobalt-60 teletherapy unit, respectively. Calculated values of relative doses varied from 93% to 100% in the smaller volume, and from 66% to 100% in the largest one. A difference of 5.0%, approximately, was observed between calculated and experimental data. The size of these volumes permits the irradiation of blood bags in only one bath without compromising the homogeneity of the absorbed dose over the irradiated volume. Thus, these irradiation volumes can be recommend to minimize the irradiation time when a teletherapy unit is used to irradiate blood. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Possibility of Removing Staining by Repolishing Composite Resins Submitted to Artificial Aging

This in vitro research verified the possibility of eliminating staining caused by coffee and red wine in five composite resins, after being submitted to thermal cycling. Thirty-six specimens were prepared and immersed in water at 37 degrees C for 24 hours. After polishing, specimen color was measured in a spectrophotometer Cintra 10 UV (Visible Spectrometer, GBC, Braeside, VIC, Australia). All specimens were submitted to thermal cycling at temperatures of 5 and 55 degrees C with a dwell time of 1 minute, for 1,000 cycles in a 75% ethanol/water solution. After thermal cycling, the specimens were immersed in water at 37 degrees C until 7 days had elapsed from the time the specimens were prepared. All specimens were then taken to the spectrophotometer for color measurement. The specimens were divided into three groups (N = 12): distilled water (control), coffee, and red wine. For the staining process to occur on only one surface, all the sides, except one, of the surfaces were isolated with white wax. The specimens were immersed in one of the solutions at 37 degrees C for 14 days. The specimens were dried and taken to the spectrophotometer for color measurement. After this, the specimens were submitted to 20 mu m wear three times, and the color was measured after each one of the wear procedures. Calculation of the color difference was made using CIEDE2000 formula. According to the methodology used in this research, it was concluded that the staining caused by coffee and red wine was superficial and one wear of 20 mu m was sufficient to remove the discoloration.

Development of a genetic method to estimate effective spawner numbers in the NPF and Queensland tiger prawn fisheries

OBJECTIVES: 1. To critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective population size (Ne) by conducting comprehensive computer simulations and by analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns. 2. To lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the NPF. 3. To produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Earth pressure on cantilever walls at design retained heights

There are many methods for the analysis and design of embedded cantilever retaining walls. They involve various different simplifications of the pressure distribution to allow calculation of the limiting equilibrium retained height and the bending moment when the retained height is less than the limiting equilibrium value, i.e. the serviceability case. Recently, a new method for determining the serviceability earth pressure and bending moment has been proposed. This method makes an assumption defining the point of zero net pressure. This assumption implies that the passive pressure is not fully mobilised immediately below the excavation level. The finite element analyses presented in this paper examine the net pressure distribution on walls in which the retained height is less, than the limiting equilibrium value. The study shows that for all practical walls, the earth pressure distributions on the front and back of the wall are at their limit values, Kp and K-a respectively, when the lumped factor of safety F-r is less than or equal to2.0. A rectilinear net pressure distribution is proposed that is intuitively logical. It produces good predictions of the complete bending moment diagram for walls in the service configuration and the proposed method gives results that have excellent agreement with centrifuge model tests. The study shows that the method for determining the serviceability bending moment suggested by Padfield and Mair(1) in the CIRIA Report 104 gives excellent predictions of the maximum bending moment in practical cantilever walls. It provides the missing data that have been needed to verify and justify the CIRIA 104 method.

Microdialysis and response during regional chemotherapy by isolated limb infusion of melphalan for limb malignancies

This study sought to use a microdialysis technique to relate clinical and biochemical responses to the time course of melphalan concentrations in the subcutaneous interstitial space and in tumour tissue (melanoma, malignant fibrous histiocytoma, Merkel cell tumour and osteosarcoma) in patients undergoing regional chemotherapy by Isolated Limb Infusion (ILI). 19 patients undergoing ILI for treatment of various limb malignancies were monitored for intra-operative melphalan concentrations in plasma and, using microdialysis, in subcutaneous and tumour tissues. Peak and mean concentrations of melphalan were significantly higher in plasma than in subcutaneous or tumour microdialysate. There was no significant difference between drug peak and mean concentrations in interstitial and tumour tissue, indicating that there was no preferential uptake of melphalan into the tumours. The time course of melphalan in the microdialysate could be described by a pharmacokinetic model which assumed melphalan distributed from the plasma into the interstitial space. The model also accounted for the vascular dispersion of melphalan in the limb. Tumour response in the whole group to treatment was partial response: 53.8% (n = 7); complete response: 33.3% (n = 5); no responses 6.7% (n = 1). There was a significant association between tumour response and melphalan concentrations measured over time in subcutaneous microdialysate (P < 0.01). No significant relationship existed between the severity of toxic reactions in the limb or peak plasma creatine phosphokinase levels and peak melphalan microdialysate or plasma concentrations. It is concluded that microdialysis is a technique well suited for measuring concentrations of cytotoxic drug during ILI. The possibility of predicting actual concentrations of cytotoxic drug in the limb during ILI using our model opens an opportunity for improved drug dose calculation. The combination of predicting tissue concentrations and monitoring in microdialysate of subcutaneous tissue could help optimise ILI with regard to post-operative limb morbidity and tumour response. (C) 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http:,//www.bjcancer.com.

Studies of solute self-association by sedimentation equilibrium: allowance for effects of thermodynamic non-ideality beyond the consequences of nearest-neighbor interactions

A sedimentation equilibrium study of a-chymotrypsin self-association in acetate-chloride buffer, pH 4.1 I 0.05, has been used to illustrate determination of a dimerization constant under conditions where thermodynamic non-ideality is manifested beyond the consequences of nearest-neighbor interactions. Because the expressions for the experimentally determinable interaction parameters comprise a mixture of equilibrium constant and excluded volume terms, the assignment of reasonable magnitudes to the relevant virial coefficients describing non-associative cluster formation is essential for the evaluation of a reliable estimate of the dimerization constant. Determination of these excluded volume parameters by numerical integration over the potential-of-mean-force is shown to be preferable to their calculation by approximate analytical solutions of the integral for this relatively small enzyme monomer with high net charge (+ 10) under conditions of low ionic strength (0.05 M). (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Step size control for efficient discrete element simulation

The step size determines the accuracy of a discrete element simulation. The position and velocity updating calculation uses a pre-calculated table and hence the control of step size can not use the integration formulas for step size control. A step size control scheme for use with the table driven velocity and position calculation uses the difference between the calculation result from one big step and that from two small steps. This variable time step size method chooses the suitable time step size for each particle at each step automatically according to the conditions. Simulation using fixed time step method is compared with that of using variable time step method. The difference in computation time for the same accuracy using a variable step size (compared to the fixed step) depends on the particular problem. For a simple test case the times are roughly similar. However, the variable step size gives the required accuracy on the first run. A fixed step size may require several runs to check the simulation accuracy or a conservative step size that results in longer run times. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interlaminar differences in the pyramidal cell phenotype in cortical areas 7m and STP (the superior temporal polysensory area) of the macaque monkey

Pyramidal neurones were injected with Lucifer Yellow in slices cut tangential to the surface of area 7m and the superior temporal polysensory area (STP) of the macaque monkey. Comparison of the basal dendritic arbors of supra- and infragranular pyramidal neurones (n=139) that were injected in the same putative modules in the different cortical areas revealed variation in their structure. Moreover, there were relative differences in dendritic morphology of supra- and infragranular pyramidal neurones in the two cortical areas. Shell analyses revealed that layer III pyramidal neurones in area STP had considerably higher peak complexity (maximum number of dendritic intersections per Shell circle) than those in layer V, whereas peak complexities were similar for supra- and infragranular pyramidal neurones in area 7m. In both cortical areas, the basal dendritic trees of layer m pyramidal neurones were characterized by a higher spine density than those in layer V. Calculations of the total number of dendritic spines in the average basal dendritic arbor revealed that layer V pyramidal neurones in area 7m had twice as many spines as cells in layer III. (4535 and 2294, respectively). A similar calculation for neurones in area STP revealed that layer III pyramidal neurones had approximately the same number of spines as cells in layer V (3585 and 3850 spines, respectively). Relative differences in the branching patterns of, and the number of spines in, the basal dendritic arbors of supra- and infragranular pyramidal neurones in the different cortical areas may allow for integration of different numbers of inputs, and different degrees of dendritic processing. These results support the thesis that intra-areal circuitry differs in different cortical areas.