Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?

We present a novel approach to assessing the attentiveness of professional forecasters to news about the macroeconomy. We find evidence that professional forecasters, taken as a group, do not always update their estimates of the current state of the economy to reflect the latest releases of revised estimates of key data.

Nexus between contracting and construction professional service businesses: empirical evidence from international market

he construction market around the world has witnessed the growing eminence of construction professional services (CPSs), such as urban planning, architecture, engineering, and consultancy, while the traditional contracting sector remains strong. Nowadays, it is not uncommon to see a design firm taking over the work of a traditional main contractor, or vice versa, of overseeing the delivery of a project. Although the two sectors of contracting and CPS share the same purpose of materializing the built environment, they are as different as they are interrelated. Much has been mentioned about the nexus between the two but little has been done to articulate it using empirical evidence. This study examined the nexus between contracting and CPS businesses by offering and testing lead-lag effects between the two sectors in the international market. A longitudinal panel data composed of 23 top international contractors and CPS firms was adopted. Surprisingly, results of the panel data analyses show that CPS business does not have a significant positive causal effect on contracting as a downstream business, and vice versa. CPS and contracting subsidiaries, although within the same company, do not necessarily form a consortium to undertake the same project; rather, they often collaborate with other CPS or contracting counterparts to undertake projects. This paper provides valuable insights into the sophisticated nexus between contracting and CPS in the international construction market. It will support business executives’ rational decision making for selecting proper contracting or CPS allies, or a proper mergers and acquisitions strategy in the international market. The paper also provides a fresh perspective through which researchers can better investigate the diversification strategies adopted by international contracting and CPS firms.

The dilemma of scope and scale for construction professional service firms

Construction professional service (CPS) firms sell expertise and provide innovative solutions for projects founded on their knowledge, experience, and technical competences. Large CPS firms seeking to grow will often seek new opportunities in their domestic market and overseas by organic or inorganic growth through mergers, alliances, and acquisitions. Growth can also come from increasing market penetration through vertical, horizontal, and lateral diversification. Such growth, hopefully, leads to economies of scope and scale in the long term, but it can also lead to diseconomies, when the added cost of integration and the increased complexity of diversification no longer create tangible and intangible benefits. The aim of this research is to investigate the key influences impacting on the growth in scope and scale for large CPS firms. Qualitative data from the interviews were underpinned by secondary data from CPS firms’ annual reports and analysts’ findings. The findings showed five key influences on the scope and scale of a CPS firm: the importance of growth as a driver; the influence of the ownership of the firm on the decision for growth in scope and scale; the optimization of resources and capabilities; the need to serve changing clients’ needs; and the importance of localization. The research provides valuable insights into the growth strategies of international CPS firms. A major finding of the research is the influence of ownership on CPS firms’ growth strategies which has not been highlighted in previous research.

Structures and relationships: women partners' careers in Germany and the UK

Purpose – This paper aims to highlight differences in women's experiences of advancement to partnership in accountancy firms in Germany and the UK and consider the ways in which such differences may be constituted by the institutional context in which they occurred. Design/methodology/approach – This research is based on 60 semi-structured interviews with women partners in Germany and the UK. Techniques adopted from grounded theory were applied. Research limitations/implications – This qualitative research is context-specific and given its cross-national, interdisciplinary nature is limited to the extent that findings cannot be generalised beyond the studied scope. Practical implications – The study points to cross-national differences in women's career advancement in accountancy firms. The findings support extant research suggesting that structured performance evaluation and hiring systems – while not without flaws – are likely more gender-neutral. In addition, the study highlights the potential of headhunters and recruitment agents as an important tool for women to navigate their way out of career culs-de-sac. Originality/value – This research provides unique insights into women partners' experiences of career advancement and, through its interdisciplinary nature, demonstrates the usefulness of employing institutional frameworks in qualitative in-depth studies of this kind

Let's talk about sex(ism): cross-national perspectives on women partners’ narratives on equality and sexism at work in Germany and the UK

While the accounting academy has contributed in important ways to furthering our understanding of the relative absence of women in top positions in Professional Service Firms, in-depth empirical research that focuses specifically on sexism is rare, especially so from a cross-national perspective. Drawing on sixty interviews with women partners in public accountancy firms in Germany and the United Kingdom, this article examines how women partners talk about sexism and equal opportunities in the accountancy profession and considers how these narratives are patterned cross-nationally. Employing cultural theory, this study explores how elite women discursively relate to sexism and equal opportunities through their career histories and demonstrates the complex interrelation between the context in which these narratives are produced and the past and present positions of the respondents. Interestingly, it was the German respondents who drew on problematic notions of ‘choice’ and responsibility, where it was upon women to make a choice between their careers and home lives, while this decision-making process was not expected from men. This was in contrast to the accounts of the UK participants who, although also unveiling tensions in their talk, were more inclined to acknowledge continuing structural constraints.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Nontraditional employment: the careers of temporary workers

This chapter focuses upon the careers of temporary workers. Temporary employment for many workers presents a route to permanent employment. Other workers, however, get trapped into temporary employment or cycle between unstable jobs and spells of unemployment. Predictors of such transitions are multiple. We selected two broad categories, namely perceived employability from the area of career research and health and well-being from the area of occupational health and well-being research. The overall conclusion is that the association between temporary employment and both perceived employability and health and well-being is inconclusive. This suggests that there are boundary conditions that may make some temporary workers successful and others not. Risk factors include dynamics related to the dual labor market, including lower job quality, lower investments on the part of employers, and negative stereotyping of temporary workers as second-class citizens. On the positive side, many temporary workers have learned to manage their careers in the sense that they invest in training and in continuous job search.

Training on the use of a bespoke continuing professional development framework improves the quality of CPD records

BACKGROUND: Using continuing professional development (CPD) as part of the revalidation of pharmacy professionals has been proposed in the UK but not implemented. We developed a CPD Outcomes Framework (‘the framework’) for scoring CPD records, where the score range was -100 to +150 based on demonstrable relevance and impact of the CPD on practice. OBJECTIVE: This exploratory study aimed to test the outcome of training people to use the framework, through distance-learning material (active intervention), by comparing CPD scores before and after training. SETTING: Pharmacy professionals were recruited in the UK in Reading, Banbury, Southampton, Kingston-upon-Thames and Guildford in 2009. METHOD: We conducted a randomised, double-blinded, parallel-group, before and after study. The control group simply received information on new CPD requirements through the post; the active intervention group also received the framework and associated training. Altogether 48 participants (25 control, 23 active) completed the study. All participants submitted CPD records to the research team before and after receiving the posted resources. The records (n=226) were scored blindly by the researchers using the framework. A subgroup of CPD records (n=96) submitted first (before-stage) and rewritten (after-stage) were analysed separately. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Scores for CPD records received before and after distributing group-dependent material through the post. RESULTS: Using a linear-regression model both analyses found an increase in CPD scores in favour of the active intervention group. For the complete set of records, the effect was a mean difference of 9.9 (95% CI = 0.4 to 19.3), p-value = 0.04. For the subgroup of rewritten records, the effect was a mean difference of 17.3 (95% CI = 5.6 to 28.9), p-value = 0.0048. CONCLUSION: The intervention improved participants’ CPD behaviour. Training pharmacy professionals to use the framework resulted in better CPD activities and CPD records, potentially helpful for revalidation of pharmacy professionals. IMPACT: • Using a bespoke Continuing Professional Development outcomes framework improves the value of pharmacy professionals’ CPD activities and CPD records, with the potential to improve patient care. • The CPD outcomes framework could be helpful to pharmacy professionals internationally who want to improve the quality of their CPD activities and CPD records. • Regulators and officials across Europe and beyond can assess the suitability of the CPD outcomes framework for use in pharmacy CPD and revalidation in their own setting.

Interviewing children and young people with learning disabilities: guidelines for researchers and multi-professional practice

We argue that it is important for researchers and service providers to not only recognize the rights of children and young people with learning disabilities to have a ‘voice’, but also to work actively towards eliciting views from all. A set of guidelines for critical self-evaluation by those engaged in systematically collecting the views of children and young people with learning disabilities is proposed. The guidelines are based on a series of questions concerning: research aims and ethics (encompassing access/gatekeepers; consent/assent; confidentiality/anonymity/secrecy, recognition, feedback and ownership; and social responsibility) sampling, design and communication

Strategies for combating gendered perceptions of careers

Purpose – Earlier work on career choice has identified that career choice involves gendered processes which lead to differentiated career outcomes for women and men. However, this literature remained anaemic in offering career counselling strategies for addressing the negative impacts of these processes. The paper aims to explore the creativity cycle and other tools derived from personal construct psychology (PCP) and other feminist literature as potential means for dissolving gendered perceptions of various professions and organisational practices. Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual paper. Findings – The paper argues that PCP can provide a theoretical and methodological framework for discussing how dichotomous and gender identified the perceptions of professions can be and how such perceptions might be challenged. Practical implications – This theory and its techniques allow us an exploration of the flexibility of one’s constructions system, which determines a person’s ability to construe alternative views and to develop new ways of understanding oneself and others. Originality/value – The PCP’s potential as a technique to combat gendered perceptions of a career is examined.

Using problem-based learning in a chemistry practical class for pharmacy students and engaging them with feedback

Objective: To introduce a new approach to problem based learning (PBL) used in the context of medicinal chemistry practical class teaching pharmacy students. Design: The described chemistry practical is based on independent studies by small groups of undergraduate students (4-5), who design their own practical work taking relevant professional standards into account. Students are carefully guided by feedback and acquire a set of skills important to their future profession as healthcare professionals. This model has been tailored to the application of PBL in a chemistry practical class setting for a large student cohort (150 students). Assessment: The achievement of learning outcomes is based on the submission of relevant documentation including a certificate of analysis, in addition to peer assessment. Some of the learning outcomes are also assessed in the final written examination at the end of the academic year. Conclusion: The described design of a novel PBL chemistry laboratory course for pharmacy students has been found to be successful. Self-reflective learning and engagement with feedback were encouraged, and students enjoyed the challenging learning experience. Skills that are highly essential for the students’ future careers as healthcare professionals are promoted.