920 resultados para probability distribution


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Perhaps the most innovative of all independent OLD ventures specialising in ROW content is Jaman. Founded in 2007 by IT entrepreneur Gaurav Dhillon, and based in San Mateo, California, Jaman is a quality specialist distributor of non-Hollywood films. As of late 2010, Jaman had 1.8 million registered users and attracts viewers from most countries in the world. 75% of all use is generated from outside the U.S. Jaman does very well in English speaking parts of the world, particularly current and former Commonwealth countries. The United Kingdom accounts for 29% of users, North America (U.S. and Canada) 26%, and India represents 23%. Jaman is sometimes referred to as ‘social cinema’: a website which brings together the critique and review of a cinephile website (the forums of Rue-morgue.com for cinefantastique movie fans for example) with the social interaction, community and functionality of a social media site (for example Facebook.com). Jaman could be considered a pioneer in this space; a first mover in wrapping commercial movie downloading in an interactive social experience.

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We present a modification of the algorithm of Dani et al. [8] for the online linear optimization problem in the bandit setting, which with high probability has regret at most O ∗ ( √ T) against an adaptive adversary. This improves on the previous algorithm [8] whose regret is bounded in expectation against an oblivious adversary. We obtain the same dependence on the dimension (n 3/2) as that exhibited by Dani et al. The results of this paper rest firmly on those of [8] and the remarkable technique of Auer et al. [2] for obtaining high probability bounds via optimistic estimates. This paper answers an open question: it eliminates the gap between the high-probability bounds obtained in the full-information vs bandit settings.

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The CDKN2 gene, encoding the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p16, is a tumour suppressor gene that maps to chromosome band 9p21-p22. The most common mechanism of inactivation of this gene in human cancers is through homozygous deletion; however, in a smaller proportion of tumours and tumour cell lines intragenic mutations occur. In this study we have compiled a database of over 120 published point mutations in the CDKN2 gene from a wide variety of tumour types. A further 50 deletions, insertions, and splice mutations in CDKN2 have also been compiled. Furthermore, we have standardised the numbering of all mutations according to the full-length 156 amino acid form of p16. From this study we are able to define several hot spots, some of which occur at conserved residues within the ankyrin domains of p16. While many of the hotspots are shared by a number of cancers, the relative importance of each position varies, possibly reflecting the role of different carcinogens in the development of certain tumours. As reported previously, the mutational spectrum of CDKN2 in melanomas differs from that of internal malignancies and supports the involvement of UV in melanoma tumorigenesis. Notably, 52% of all substitutions in melanoma-derived samples occurred at just six nucleotide positions. Nonsense mutations comprise a comparatively high proportion of mutations present in the CDKN2 gene, and possible explanations for this are discussed.

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This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value added and productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's Distribution Trade Sector for the period 2001-2008. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statements of the Singapore government: Its services sector, especially in Retail Trade, lags behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's Distribution performance in terms of labour productivity was below Hong Kong's level, which was largely due to poor performance in its Retail Trade sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity (TFP) between these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that worked in Hong Kong may not work for Singapore because its population is more diverse which poses a challenge to policy-makers in raising its productivity level.

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In this paper a new graph-theory and improved genetic algorithm based practical method is employed to solve the optimal sectionalizer switch placement problem. The proposed method determines the best locations of sectionalizer switching devices in distribution networks considering the effects of presence of distributed generation (DG) in fitness functions and other optimization constraints, providing the maximum number of costumers to be supplied by distributed generation sources in islanded distribution systems after possible faults. The proposed method is simulated and tested on several distribution test systems in both cases of with DG and non DG situations. The results of the simulations validate the proposed method for switch placement of the distribution network in the presence of distributed generation.

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Protection of a distribution network in the presence of distributed generators (DGs) using overcurrent relays is a challenging task due to the changes in fault current levels and reverse power flow. Specifically, in the presence of current limited converter interfaced DGs, overcurrent relays may fail to isolate the faulted section either in grid connected or islanded mode of operation. In this paper, a new inverse type relay is presented to protect a distribution network, which may have several DG connections. The new relay characteristic is designed based on the measured admittance of the protected line. The relay is capable of detecting faults under changing fault current levels. The relay performance is evaluated using PSCAD simulation and laboratory experiments.

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The potential of distributed reactive power control to improve the voltage profile of radial distribution feeders has been reported in literature by few authors. However, the multiple inverters injecting or absorbing reactive power across a distribution feeder may introduce control interactions and/or voltage instability. Such controller interactions can be alleviated if the inverters are allowed to operate on voltage droop. First, the paper demonstrates that a linear shallow droop line can maintain the steady state voltage profile close to reference, up to a certain level of loading. Then, impacts of the shallow droop line control on line losses and line power factors are examined. Finally, a piecewise linear droop line which can achieve reduced line losses and close to unity power factor at the feeder source is proposed.

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Distribution feeder voltage reinforcement by multiple site reactive power compensation systems has recently been reported by many researchers. However, voltage control by multiple DSTATCOMs across a distribution feeder may introduce control interactions and/or voltage instability. This paper addresses these control interaction issues and proposes a control scheme that alleviates interactions among controllers. The proposed control scheme also enhances proper sharing of reactive power among DSTATCOMs. A mathematical model of a distribution system with any number of DSTATCOMs is developed to investigate the performance of the control system. This mathematical model is used to conduct eigenvalue analysis to develop the criterion for controller design. The proposed control scheme is tested in time domain on a sample radial distribution feeder installed with multiple DSTATCOMs and test results are presented.

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An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

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An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

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An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

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The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

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We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. Acepromazine (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance ($Cl/F_{PM}$) and volume of distribution ($V/F_{PM}$), scaled by the fraction of parent converted to metabolite, were estimated as 769 L/h and 6874 L, respectively. For a typical horse in the study, after receiving 30 mg of ACP, the upper limit of the detection time was 35 hours in plasma and 100 hours in urine, assuming an arbitrary limit of detection of 1 $\mu$g/L, and a small ($\approx 0.01$) probability of detection. The model derived allowed the probability of detection to be estimated at the population level. This analysis was conducted on data collected from only 12 horses, but we assume that this is representative of the wider population.