Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Brain structure in movement disorders: a neuroimaging perspective.

Purpose of review: An overview of recent advances in structural neuroimaging and their impact on movement disorders research is presented. Recent findings: Novel developments in computational neuroanatomy and improvements in magnetic resonance image quality have brought further insight into the pathophysiology of movement disorders. Sophisticated automated techniques allow for sensitive and reliable in-vivo differentiation of phenotype/genotype related traits and their interaction even at presymptomatic stages of disease. Summary: Voxel-based morphometry consistently demonstrates well defined patterns of brain structure changes in movement disorders. Advanced stages of idiopathic Parkinson's disease are characterized by grey matter volume decreases in basal ganglia. Depending on the presence of cognitive impairment, volume changes are reported in widespread cortical and limbic areas. Atypical Parkinsonian syndromes still pose a challenge for accurate morphometry-based classification, especially in early stages of disease progression. Essential tremor has been mainly associated with thalamic and cerebellar changes. Studies on preclinical Huntington's disease show progressive loss of tissue in the caudate and cortical thinning related to distinct motor and cognitive phenotypes. Basal ganglia volume in primary dystonia reveals an interaction between genotype and phenotype such that brain structure changes are modulated by the presence of symptoms under the influence of genetic factors. Tics in Tourette's syndrome correlate with brain structure changes in limbic, motor and associative fronto-striato-parietal circuits. Computational neuroanatomy provides useful tools for in-vivo assessment of brain structure in movement disorders, allowing for accurate classification in early clinical stages as well as for monitoring therapy effects and/or disease progression.

Adéquation et choix de modele de marche aléatoire des trajectoires des navires de peches

L'étude du mouvement des organismes est essentiel pour la compréhension du fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Dans le cas des écosystèmes marins exploités, cela amène à s'intéresser aux stratégies spatiales des pêcheurs. L'une des approches les plus utilisées pour la modélisation du mouvement des prédateurs supé- rieurs est la marche aléatoire de Lévy. Une marche aléatoire est un modèle mathématique composé par des déplacements aléatoires. Dans le cas de Lévy, les longueurs des déplacements suivent une loi stable de Lévy. Dans ce cas également, les longueurs, lorsqu'elles tendent vers l'in ni (in praxy lorsqu'elles sont grandes, grandes par rapport à la médiane ou au troisième quartile par exemple), suivent une loi puissance caractéristique du type de marche aléatoire de Lévy (Cauchy, Brownien ou strictement Lévy). Dans la pratique, outre que cette propriété est utilisée de façon réciproque sans fondement théorique, les queues de distribution, notion par ailleurs imprécise, sont modélisée par des lois puissances sans que soient discutées la sensibilité des résultats à la dé nition de la queue de distribution, et la pertinence des tests d'ajustement et des critères de choix de modèle. Dans ce travail portant sur les déplacements observés de trois bateaux de pêche à l'anchois du Pérou, plusieurs modèles de queues de distribution (log-normal, exponentiel, exponentiel tronqué, puissance et puissance tronqué) ont été comparés ainsi que deux dé nitions possible de queues de distribution (de la médiane à l'in ni ou du troisième quartile à l'in ni). Au plan des critères et tests statistiques utilisés, les lois tronquées (exponentielle et puissance) sont apparues les meilleures. Elles intègrent en outre le fait que, dans la pratique, les bateaux ne dépassent pas une certaine limite de longueur de déplacement. Le choix de modèle est apparu sensible au choix du début de la queue de distribution : pour un même bateau, le choix d'un modèle tronqué ou l'autre dépend de l'intervalle des valeurs de la variable sur lequel le modèle est ajusté. Pour nir, nous discutons les implications en écologie des résultats de ce travail.

School Choice and Student Screening in the Chilean Educational System: Who Chooses Whom?. The Case of the Catholic Education

The student´s screening made by schools corresponds to a regulatory mechanism for school inclusion and exclusion that normally overlaps the parental expectations of school choice. Based in "Parents survey 2006" data (n=188.073) generated by the Chilean Educational Ministry, this paper describe the parents reasons for choosing their children's school, and school´s criteria for screening students. It concludes that the catholic schools are the most selective institutions and usually exceed the capacity of parental choice. One of the reasons to select students would be the direct relationship between this practice and increasing the average score on the test of the Chilean Educational Quality Measurement System (SIMCE).

IRF6 is a mediator of the Notch pro-differentiation and tumour suppressive function in keratinocytes

I. Résumé large publicIRF6 est un médiateur de Notch dans la différenciation des kératinocytes et dans sa fonction de suppresseur de tumeursLa peau est l'organe le plus important du corps humain, elle représente chez l'adulte une surface d'environ 1,5 m2 et elle est composée de 2000 milliards de cellules. La peau est composée de plusieurs types cellulaires dont les kératinocvtes. Ces cellules, qui se trouvent dans la couche la plus externe de la peau (Pépiderme), nous protègent de la déshydratation et des agressions externes telles que les infections et rayons ultraviolets. Cette fonction de « barrière » est mise en place grâce à un processus appelé différenciation des kératinocvtes durant lequel les kératinocytes deviennent matures et finalement meurent pour former la couche cornée la plus externe difficilement pénétrable. L'homéostasie tissulaire est un mécanisme qui régule l'équilibre entre prolifération, différentiation et mort cellulaire. Une perturbation de cet équilibre peut mener à la formation d'une tumeur. Il existe différents types de tumeurs de la peau. Nous nous sommes intéressés aux «carcinomes spino-cellulaires» (SCC) qui se développent à partir des keratinocytes en différenciation. Notch est une molécule impliquée positivement dans la différenciation des kératinocytes et joue un rôle prépondérant dans la suppression des tumeurs kératinocytaires comme les SCC dans lesquelles Notch est faiblement exprimé. L'implication de Notch dans la différenciation et dans la carcinogenèse kératinocytaire n'est plus controversée, mais les mécanismes qui sont à la base de ces fonctions restent encore à élucider. IRfF6 est une protéine qui, d'après sa structure, a été classée parmi une famille de régulateurs de la défense de l'organisme (IRFs). Des études ultérieures ont montré qu'IRf 6 n'a pas de rôle dans la réponse immunitaire mais qu'il est plutôt impliqué dans le développement de l'épiderme. Dans ce travail, nous avons établi que, dans les kératinocytes, l'expression d'IPJF6 est contrôlé par Notch et que, comme pour ce dernier, elle est réduite dans les SCCs. De plus, nous avons observé qu'IRF6 régule les mêmes gènes que Notch, et qu'il est en effet un médiateur de la fonction de Notch dans la différenciation des kératinocytes. Parmi les gènes contrôlés par l'axe Notch-IRF6 il y en a trois qui sont sur-exprimés dans les SCCs et qui sont réprimés par cet axe. Il s'agit d'une part d'IRF3 et IRF7, deux autres membres de la famille IRF, et du récepteur EGFR (Epidermal growth factor receptor), un oncogène (un gène impliqué dans l'accélération de la formation de tumeurs). Dans leur ensemble, ces découvertes nous informent sur les mécanismes impliqués dans les fonctions pro-differentiatrice et tumeur suppressive de Notch. Plus encore, elles ouvrent des perspectives intéressantes quant au développement de nouvelles approches thérapeutiques dans le traitement des cancers.II. RésuméLa voie de signalisation de Notch joue un rôle très important dans la différenciation cellulaire et dans la carcinogenèse de nombreux tissus. Dans les kératinocytes, elle agit comme suppresseur de tumeurs, fonction altérée dans les cancers spino cellulaires SCC (tumeurs kératinocytaires) de part la perte d'expression de Notch.Bien que les fonctions pro-différenciatrice et tumeur-suppressive de la voie de signalisation de Notch soient aujourd'hui reconnues, les mécanismes sous-jacents restent à explorer.Dans ce travail, nous montrons qu'IRF6, un membre de la famille des régulateurs de la voie de l'interféron (IRF), ne possédant pas de rôles dans la réponse immunitaire mais essentiel dans le développement de l'épiderme, est d'autant plus exprimé que le kératinocytes sont différenciées alors que son expression est drastiquement diminuée dans les SCC. De façon intéressante, l'expression d'IRF6 durant la différenciation kératinocytaire est directement contrôlée par Notch.Dans les kératinocytes l'expression accrue d'IRP6 a les mêmes effets que 1'activation de la voie de Notch induisant les marqueurs de différentiation des couches supra-basales de l'épiderme et inhibant ceux de la couche basale impliqués dans la prolifération cellulaire. Cependant IRF6 n'est pas impliqué dans la régulation d'autres cibles de Notch, comme p21WAFI/CiP' et Hesl. Comme Notch, IRF6 contrôle négativement l'expression de EGFR et IRF3/7. De ce fait EGFR et IRF3 et IRF7 sont fortement exprimés dans les SCCs humaines où l'expression de Notch et IRF6 est fortement réduite.En conclusion, nous avons démontré qu'IRF6 est une cible directe de Notch/CSL dans les keratinocytes qui medie les effets "non-canonique" de cette voie de signalisation dans la différentiation et dans la suppression tumorale.III. SummaryThe Notch pathway is an important regulator of differentiation and carcinogenesis. In keratinocytes it acts as tumour suppressor and the Notch gene is markedly reduced in keratinocyte-derived squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). While the pro-differentiation and tumour suppressive functions of Notch signalling in keratinocytes are well established, the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood, We report here that Interferon Regulatory Factor 6 (IRF6), an IRF family member with an essential role in epidermal development, is downmodulated in SCC and is induced in differentiating cells. We observed that the induction of IRF6 in differentiating keratinocytes is suppressed by Notch inhibition. IRF6 expression is also decreased in mice with keratinocyte-specific deletion of the Notch 1/2.Moreover we show that the expression of this gene is induced by Notch activation through a CSL-dependent mechanism even under conditions of protein synthesis inhibition, with endogenous Notch 1 binding to the IRF6 promoter.Increased IRJF6 expression is necessary for the impact of Notch activation on differentiation markers K1 and Involucrin, and proliferation markers integrins and p63, but not on other "canonical" Notch targets like p21WAF1/Cipl, Hes1 and Hey1. Like Notch 1, IRF6 down-modulates expression of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) as well as two other IRF family members, IRF3 and 7, which we previously linked to positive control of p63 expression. Expression of IRF3, IRF7 and EGFR is enhanced in cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas, illustrating a strikingly opposite pattern compared to Notch and IRF6.Thus, IRF6 is a primary Notch target in keratinocytes, which mediates the effects of this pathway on differentiation and contributes to tumor suppression.

Work motivation and pro-social behavior in the delivery of public services : theoretical and empirical insights

This Ph.D. dissertation seeks to study the work motivation of employees in the delivery of public services. The questioning on work motivation in public services in not new but it becomes central for governments which are now facing unprecedented public debts. The objective of this research is twofold : First, we want to see if the work motivation of employees in public services is a continuum (intrinsic and extrinsic motivations cannot coexist) or a bi-dimensional construct (intrinsic and extrinsic motivations coexist simultaneously). The research in public administration literature has focused on the concept of public service motivation, and considered motivation to be uni-dimensional (Perry and Hondeghem 2008). However, no study has yet tackled both types of motivation, the intrinsic and extrinsic ones, in the same time. This dissertation proposes, in Part I, a theoretical assessment and an empirical test of a global work motivational structure, by using a self-constructed Swiss dataset with employees from three public services, the education sector, the security sector and the public administrative services sector. Our findings suggest that work motivation in public services in not uni-dimensional but bi-dimensional, the intrinsic and extrinsic motivations coexist simultaneously and can be positively correlated (Amabile et al. 1994). Our findings show that intrinsic motivation is as important as extrinsic motivation, thus, the assumption that employees in public services are less attracted by extrinsic rewards is not confirmed for this sample. Other important finding concerns the public service motivation concept, which, as theoretically predicted, represents the major motivational dimension of employees in the delivery of public services. Second, the theory of public service motivation makes the assumption that employees in public services engage in activities that go beyond their self-interest, but never uses this construct as a determinant for their pro-social behavior. In the same time, several studies (Gregg et al. 2011 and Georgellis et al. 2011) bring evidence about the pro-social behavior of employees in public services. However, they do not identify which type of motivation is at the origin of this behavior, they only make the assumption of an intrinsically motivated behavior. We analyze the pro-social behavior of employees in public services and use the public service motivation as determinant of their pro-social behavior. We add other determinants highlighted by the theory of pro-social behavior (Bénabou and Tirole 2006), by Le Grand (2003) and by fit theories (Besley and Ghatak 2005). We test these determinants on Part II and identify for each sector of activity the positive or the negative impact on pro-social behavior of Swiss employees. Contrary to expectations, we find, for this sample, that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors have a positive impact on pro-social behavior, no crowding-out effect is identified in this sample. We confirm the hypothesis of Le Grand (2003) about the positive impact of the opportunity cost on pro-social behavior. Our results suggest a mix of action-oriented altruism and out-put oriented altruism of employees in public services. These results are relevant when designing incentives schemes for employees in the delivery of public services.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-beta as a target for wound healing drugs: what is possible?

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) dysfunction has been implicated in the manifestation of many diseases and illnesses, ranging from obesity to cancer. Herein, we discuss the role of PPARbeta, one of the three PPAR isotypes, during wound healing. While PPARbeta expression is undetectable in unchallenged and healthy adult interfollicular mouse skin, it is robustly re-activated in stress situations, such as upon phorbol ester treatment, hair plucking and cutaneous wounding. The inflammatory reaction associated with a skin injury activates the keratinocytes at the edges of the wound. This activation involves PPARbeta, whose expression and activity as transcription factor are up-regulated by pro-inflammatory signals. The re-activation of PPARbeta influences three important properties of the activated keratinocytes that are vital for rapid wound closure, namely, survival, migration and differentiation. The anti-apoptotic and, thus, survival role of PPARbeta is mediated by the up-regulation of expression of integrin-linked kinase and 3-phosphoinositide-dependent kinase-1. Both kinases are required for the full activation of the Akt1 survival cascade. Therefore, the up-regulation of PPARbeta, early after injury, appears to be important to maintain a sufficient number of viable keratinocytes at the wound edge. At a later stage of wound repair, the stimulation of keratinocyte migration and differentiation by PPARbeta is also likely to be important for the formation of a new epidermis at the wounded area. Consistent with these observations, the entire wound healing process is delayed in PPARbeta +/- mice and wound closure is retarded by 2-3 days. The multiple roles of PPARbeta in the complex keratinocyte response after injury and during skin repair certainly justify a further exploration of its potential as a target for wound healing drugs.

Anàlisi del cercador múltiple Copernic 2001 Pro

Podeu consultar la versió en castellà a http://hdl.handle.net/2445/8965

Análisis del buscador múltiple Copernic 2001 Pro

Podeu consultar la versió en català a http://hdl.handle.net/2445/8964

Choice of outcome measures in postprandial trials

Comment on: Heinrich H, Goetze O, Menne D, Iten PX, Fruehauf H, Vavricka SR, Schwizer W, Fried M, Fox M. Effect on gastric function and symptoms of drinking wine, black tea, or schnapps with a Swiss cheese fondue: randomised controlled crossover trial. BMJ. 2010 Dec 14;341:c6731. doi: 10.1136/bmj.c6731. PMID 21156747.

Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.