Analysis of atmospheric transport and the effects of seasonal and interannual transport variability on measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory

A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.

Forced oscillation technique in infants and young children

Due to its non-invasive character, the forced oscillation technique has gained importance in clinical research in infants and young children. Standardisation has enabled systematic and comparable measurements to be made in different laboratories throughout the world. The theoretical conditions are now fulfilled for use of these techniques in the clinical environment. This review discusses the principles, usefulness and pitfalls of various forced oscillation techniques in a research and clinical environment and the present and future clinical applications in children. It will focus particularly on the role of infant and preschool lung function as forced oscillation only requires minimal cooperation.

Book Review of “Frontiers of Social Research: Japan and Beyond”. 351 pages, Trans Pacific Press, 2007, edited by Akira Furukawa

The title ‘Frontiers of Social Research’ implies a pioneering spirit, embarking upon unchartered territories. However, the most fascinating and insightful moments of this book are those which explore age-old Japanese research techniques and the potential for new methodologies to look to the old. The key theme of the work is the role of the researcher and the researcher’s relationships with research participants, the research audience and with knowledge itself.

1200 years of decadal-scale variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate at Pantelleria Island, Italy

A new sedimentary sequence from Lago di Venere on Pantelleria Island, located in the Strait of Sicily between Tunisia and Sicily was recovered. The lake is located in the coastal infra-Mediterranean vegetation belt at 2 m a.s.l. Pollen, charcoal and sedimentological analyses are used to explore linkages among vegetation, fire and climate at a decadal scale over the past 1200 years. A dry period from ad 800 to 1000 that corresponds to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (WMP) is inferred from sedimentological analysis. The high content of carbonate recorded in this period suggests a dry phase, when the ratio of evaporation/precipitation was high. During this period the island was dominated by thermophilous and drought-tolerant taxa, such as Quercus ilex, Olea, Pistacia and Juniperus. A marked shift in the sediment properties is recorded at ad 1000, when carbonate content became very low suggesting wetter conditions until ad 1850–1900. Broadly, this period coincides with the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), which was characterized by wetter and colder conditions in Europe. During this time rather mesic conifers (i.e. Pinus pinaster), shrubs and herbs (e.g. Erica arborea and Selaginella denticulata) expanded, whereas more drought-adapted species (e.g. Q. ilex) declined. Charcoal data suggest enhanced fire activity during the LIA probably as a consequence of anthropogenic burning and/or more flammable fuel (e.g. resinous Pinus biomass). The last century was characterized by a shift to high carbonate content, indicating a change towards drier conditions, and re-expansion of Q. ilex and Olea. The post-LIA warming is in agreement with historical documents and meteorological time series. Vegetation dynamics were co-determined by agricultural activities on the island. Anthropogenic indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Sporormiella) reveal the importance of crops and grazing on the island. Our pollen data suggest that extensive logging caused the local extinction of deciduous Quercus pubescens around ad1750.

Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

A 20-day period standing oscillation in the northern winter stratosphere

Observations of the ozone profile by a ground-based microwave radiometer in Switzerland indicate a dominant 20-day oscillation in stratospheric ozone, possibly related to oscillations of the polar vortex edge during winter. For further understanding of the nature of the 20-day oscillation, the ozone data set of ERA Interim meteorological reanalysis is analyzed at the latitude belt of 47.5° N and in the time from 1979 to 2010. Spectral analysis of ozone time series at 7 hPa indicates that the 20-day oscillation is maximal at two locations: 7.5° E, 47.5° N and 60° E, 47.5° N. Composites of the stream function are derived for different phases of the 20-day oscillation of stratospheric ozone at 7 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere. The streamline at Ψ = −2 × 107 m2 s−1 is in the vicinity of the polar vortex edge. The other streamline at Ψ = 4 × 107 m2 s1 surrounds the Aleutian anticyclone and goes to the subtropics. The composites show 20-day period standing oscillations at the polar vortex edge and in the subtropics above Northern Africa, India, and China. The 20-day period standing oscillation above Aral Sea and India is correlated to the strength of the Aleutian anticyclone.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Measurement of Neutrino Oscillation Parameters from Muon Neutrino Disappearance with an Off-Axis Beam

The T2K collaboration reports a precision measurement of muon neutrino disappearance with an off-axis neutrino beam with a peak energy of 0.6 GeV. Near detector measurements are used to constrain the neutrino flux and cross section parameters. The Super-Kamiokande far detector, which is 295 km downstream of the neutrino production target, collected data corresponding to 3.01×1020 protons on target. In the absence of neutrino oscillations, 205±17 (syst.) events are expected to be detected and only 58 muon neutrino event candidates are observed. A fit to the neutrino rate and energy spectrum assuming three neutrino flavors, normal mass hierarchy and θ23≤π/4 yields a best-fit mixing angle sin2(2θ23)=1.000 and mass splitting |Δm232|=2.44×10−3 eV2/c4. If θ23≥π/4 is assumed, the best-fit mixing angle changes to sin2(2θ23)=0.999 and the mass splitting remains unchanged.

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Vegetation responses to rapid warming and to minor climatic fluctuations during the Late-Glacial Interstadial (GI-1) at Gerzensee (Switzerland)

High-resolution pollen analyses made on the same samples on which the ratios of oxygen isotopes were measured that provided the time scale and a temperature proxy after correlation to NorthGRIP. (1) A primary succession: The vegetation responded to the rapid rise of temperatures around 14,685 yr BP, with a primary succession on a decadal to centennial time scale. The succession between ca 15,600 and 13,000 yr BP included: (1.1.) The replacement of shrub-tundra by woodland of Juniperus and tree birch (around 14,665 yr BP) (1.2.) The response of Juniperus pollen to the shift in oxygen isotopes in less than 20 yr, (1.3.) A sequence of population increases of Hippophaë rhamnoides (ca 14,600 yr BP), Salix spp. (ca 14,600 yr BP), Betula trees (ca.14,480 yr BP), Populus cf. tremula (ca. 14,300 yr BP), and Pinus cf. sylvestris (ca. 13,830 yr BP). (2) Biological processes: Plants responded to the rapid increase of summer temperatures on all organisational levels: (2.1) Individuals may have produced more pollen (e.g. Juniperus); (2.2) Populations increased or decreased (e.g. Juniperus, Betula, later Pinus), and (2.3) Populations changed their biogeographical range and may show migrational lags. (2.4) Plant communities changed in their composition because the species pools changed through immigration and (local) extinction. Some plant communities may have been without modern analogue.These mechanisms require increasing amounts of time. (2.5) Processes on the level of ecosystems, with species interactions, may involve various time scales. Besides competition and facilitation, nitrogen fixation is discussed. (3) The minor fluctuations of temperature during the Late-Glacial Interstadial, which are recorded in δ18O, resulted in only very minor changes in pollen during the Aegelsee Oscillation (Older Dryas biozone, GI-1d) and the Gerzensee Oscillation (GI-1b). (4) Biodiversity: The afforestation at the onset of Bølling coincided with a gradual increase of taxonomic diversity up to the time of the major Pinus expansion.