Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Near infrared spectroscopy for non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage

There is a need for an accurate real-time quantitative system that would enhance decision-making in the treatment of osteoarthritis. To achieve this objective, significant research is required that will enable articular cartilage properties to be measured and categorized for health and functionality without the need for laboratory tests involving biopsies for pathological evaluation. Such a system would provide the capability of access to the internal condition of the cartilage matrix and thus extend the vision-based arthroscopy that is currently used beyond the subjective evaluation of surgeons. The system required must be able to non-destructively probe the entire thickness of the cartilage and its immediate subchondral bone layer. In this thesis, near infrared spectroscopy is investigated for the purpose mentioned above. The aim is to relate it to the structure and load bearing properties of the cartilage matrix to the near infrared absorption spectrum and establish functional relationships that will provide objective, quantitative and repeatable categorization of cartilage condition outside the area of visible degradation in a joint. Based on results from traditional mechanical testing, their innovative interpretation and relationship with spectroscopic data, new parameters were developed. These were then evaluated for their consistency in discriminating between healthy viable and degraded cartilage. The mechanical and physico-chemical properties were related to specific regions of the near infrared absorption spectrum that were identified as part of the research conducted for this thesis. The relationships between the tissue's near infrared spectral response and the new parameters were modeled using multivariate statistical techniques based on partial least squares regression (PLSR). With significantly high levels of statistical correlation, the modeled relationships were demonstrated to possess considerable potential in predicting the properties of unknown tissue samples in a quick and non-destructive manner. In order to adapt near infrared spectroscopy for clinical applications, a balance between probe diameter and the number of active transmit-receive optic fibres must be optimized. This was achieved in the course of this research, resulting in an optimal probe configuration that could be adapted for joint tissue evaluation. Furthermore, as a proof-of-concept, a protocol for obtaining the new parameters from the near infrared absorption spectra of cartilage was developed and implemented in a graphical user interface (GUI)-based software, and used to assess cartilage-on-bone samples in vitro. This conceptual implementation has been demonstrated, in part by the individual parametric relationship with the near infrared absorption spectrum, the capacity of the proposed system to facilitate real-time, non-destructive evaluation of cartilage matrix integrity. In summary, the potential of the optical near infrared spectroscopy for evaluating articular cartilage and bone laminate has been demonstrated in this thesis. The approach could have a spin-off for other soft tissues and organs of the body. It builds on the earlier work of the group at QUT, enhancing the near infrared component of the ongoing research on developing a tool for cartilage evaluation that goes beyond visual and subjective methods.

Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) : building the ICT in education capacity of the next generation of teachers in Australia

The Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project is a unique nationally significant project funded by the Australian Government through the Department of Employment, Education and Workplace Relations (DEEWR, Au$8.8 million) and the Information and Communication Technology Innovation Fund (ICTIF). This 2011-2012 project has ambitiously attempted to build the ICT education (ICTE) capacity of the next generation of Australian teachers through its focus on pre-service teachers, teacher educators and the new Australian Curriculum. This paper will provide an overview of the project including a description of its genesis in a changing educational and political landscape, its structure and operations, its grounding in contemporary theory, the research opportunities it has engendered and its tangible outcomes.

Global flash multifocal electroretinogram : early detection of local functional changes and its correlations with optical coherence tomography and visual field loss in diabetic eyes

Purpose: To investigate the correlations of the global flash multifocal electroretinogram (MOFO mfERG) with common clinical visual assessments – Humphrey perimetry and Stratus circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurement in type II diabetic patients. Methods: Forty-two diabetic patients participated in the study: ten were free from diabetic retinopathy (DR) while the remainder suffered from mild to moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR). Fourteen age-matched controls were recruited for comparison. MOFO mfERG measurements were made under high and low contrast conditions. Humphrey central 30-2 perimetry and Stratus OCT circumpapillary RNFL thickness measurements were also performed. Correlations between local values of implicit time and amplitude of the mfERG components (direct component (DC) and induced component (IC)), and perimetric sensitivity and RNFL thickness were evaluated by mapping the localized responses for the three subject groups. Results: MOFO mfERG was superior to perimetry and RNFL assessments in showing differences between the diabetic groups (with and without DR) and the controls. All the MOFO mfERG amplitudes (except IC amplitude at high contrast) correlated better with perimetry findings (Pearson’s r ranged from 0.23 to 0.36, p<0.01) than did the mfERG implicit time at both high and low contrasts across all subject groups. No consistent correlation was found between the mfERG and RNFL assessments for any group or contrast conditions. The responses of the local MOFO mfERG correlated with local perimetric sensitivity but not with RNFL thickness. Conclusion: Early functional changes in the diabetic retina seem to occur before morphological changes in the RNFL.

Terra Preta : bioenergy, soil restoration, urban agriculture, art algorithm

The 2010 LAGI competition was held on three underutilized sites in the United Arab Emirates. By choosing Staten Island, New York in 2012 the competition organises have again brought into question new roles for public open space in the contemporary city. In the case of the UEA sites, the competition produced many entries which aimed to create a sculpture and by doing so, they attracted people to the selected empty spaces in an arid climate. In a way these proposals were the incubators and the new characters of these empty spaces. The competition was thus successful at advancing understandings of the expanded role of public open spaces in EAU and elsewhere. LAGI 2012 differs significantly to the UAE program because Fresh Kills Park has already been planned as a public open space for New Yorkers - with or without these clean energy sculptures. Furthermore, Fresh Kills Park is already an (gas) energy generating site in its own right. We believe Fresh Kills Park, as a site, presents a problem which somewhat transcends the aims of the competition brief. Advancing a sustainable urban design proposition for the site therefore requires a fundamental reconsideration of the established paradigms public open space. Hence our strategy is to not only create an energy generating, site specific art work, but to create synergy between the public and the site engagement while at the same time complement the idiosyncrasies of the pre-existing engineered landscape. Current PhD research about energy generation in public open spaces informs this work.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for use in traffic impact assessments

Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.

Are plasmons responsible for the Raman signal enhancement observed with gold nanoparticle sensors?

The electromagnetic enhancement that occurs in surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) substrates containing gold nanoparticles (NPs) is believed to arise through the generation of localised surface plasmons. We present results that show no SERS signals are obtained when 25 nm diameter gold NPs layered quartz substrates exposed to 2-aminopyridine are illuminated with plasmon resonant 532 nm radiation, but SERS signals are observed when the same samples are illuminated with non-resonant 785 nm radiation.

Effective planning approach to interconnect bulk quantities of wind generation

Over the past few years, the Midwest ISO has experienced a surge in requests to interconnect large amounts of wind generation, driven largely by a favorable political environment and an abundant wind resource in the Midwestern US. This tremendous influx of proposed generators along with a highly constrained transmission system adversely impacted interconnection queue processing, resulting in an unmanageable backlog. Under these circumstances, Midwest ISO successfully reformed the interconnection tariff to improve cycle times and provide increased certainty to interconnection customers. One of the key features of the reformed queue process is the System Planning and Analysis (SPA) phase which allows integration of the interconnection studies with regional transmission planning. This paper presents a brief background of the queue reform effort and then delves deeply in to the work performed at the Midwest ISO during the first SPA cycle - the study approach, the challenges faced in having to study over 50,000 MWs of wind generation and the effective solutions designed to complete these studies within tariff timelines.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for TIA

Transport Impact Assessment (TIA) -Generally a short range transport planning activity -Assess transport impacts of new developments or expansions -Present solutions to mitigate impacts Problems with TIA Process -Private vehicles focus (i.e. Veh Trip Ends) -Proxy variables (e.g. 100sqm GFA) -Trip generation rates (e.g. VTE/proxy) -Little info/guidance on trip chaining effects -Little info/guidance on non-PV modes Requires significant professional judgment

Semi-parametric modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal trends in environmental modelling data requires that measurements be taken at multiple sites. The number of sites and duration of measurement at each site must be balanced against costs of equipment and availability of trained staff. The split panel design comprises short measurement campaigns at multiple locations and continuous monitoring at reference sites [2]. Here we present a modelling approach for a spatio-temporal model of ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC) recorded according to a split panel design. The model describes the temporal trends and background levels at each site. The data were measured as part of the “Ultrafine Particles from Transport Emissions and Child Health” (UPTECH) project which aims to link air quality measurements, child health outcomes and a questionnaire on the child’s history and demographics. The UPTECH project involves measuring aerosol and particle counts and local meteorology at each of 25 primary schools for two weeks and at three long term monitoring stations, and health outcomes for a cohort of students at each school [3].

A framework for cost-aware process management : generation of accurate and timely management accounting cost reports

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency improvements for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables reporting of detailed cost of operations for decision making purpose, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Business process management is concerned with systematically documenting, managing, automating, and optimising processes. Process mining gives valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded by an IT system in the form of an event log with the focus on efficient utilisation of time and resources, although its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, we propose a framework to support management accounting decisions on cost control by automatically incorporating cost data with historical data from event logs for monitoring, predicting and reporting process-related costs. We also illustrate how accurate, relevant and timely management accounting style cost reports can be produced on demand by extending open-source process mining framework ProM.

Analysis of indirect message injection for MAC generation using stream ciphers

This paper presents a model for generating a MAC tag with a stream cipher using the input message indirectly. Several recent proposals represent instances of this model with slightly different options. We investigate the security of this model for different options, and identify cases which permit forgery attacks. Based on this, we present a new forgery attack on version 1.4 of 128-EIA3. Design recommendations to enhance the security of proposals following this general model are given.

Relationship among CFH and ARMS2 genotypes, macular pigment optical density, and neuroretinal function in persons without age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To determine whether there is a difference in neuroretinal function and in macular pigment optical density between persons with high- and low-risk gene variants for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and no ophthalmoscopic signs of AMD, and to compare the results on neuroretinal function to patients with manifest early AMD. Methods and Participants: Neuroretinal function was assessed with the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) for 32 participants (22 healthy persons with no AMD and 10 early AMD patients). The 22 healthy participants with no AMD had high- or low-risk genotypes for either CFH (rs380390) and/or ARMS2 (rs10490924). Trough-to-peak response densities and peak-implicit times were analyzed in 5 concentric rings. Macular pigment optical densitometry was assessed by customized heterochromatic flicker photometry. Results: Trough-to-peak response densities for concentric rings 1 to 3 were, on average, significantly greater in participants with high-risk genotypes than in participants with low-risk genotypes and in persons with early AMD after correction for age and smoking (p<0.05). The group peak- implicit times for ring 1 were, on average, delayed in the patients with early AMD compared with the participants with high- or low-risk genotypes, although these differences were not significant. There was no significant correlation between genotypes and macular pigment optical density. Conclusion: Increased neuroretinal activity in persons who carry high-risk AMD genotypes may be due to genetically determined subclinical inflammatory and/or histological changes in the retina. Neuroretinal function in healthy persons genetically susceptible to AMD may be a useful additional early biomarker (in combination with genetics) before there is clinical manifestation.

More is not necessarily better. A biomechanical study on distal screw numbers in volar locking distal radius plates

INTRODUCTION: Currently available volar locking plates for the treatment of distal radius fractures incorporate at least two distal screw rows for fixation of the metaphyseal fragment and have a variable-angle locking mechanism which allows placement of the screws in various directions There is, however no evidence that these plates translate into better outcomes or have superior biomechanical properties to first generation plates, which had a single distal screw row and fixed-angle locking. The aim of our biomechanical study was to compare fixed-angle single-row plates with variable-angle multi-row plates to clarify the optimal number of locking screws. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five different plate-screw combinations of three different manufacturers were tested, each group consisting of five synthetic fourth generation distal radius bones. An AO type C2 fracture was created and the fractures were plated according to each manufacturer's recommendations. The specimens then underwent cyclic and load-to-failure testing. An optical motion analysis system was used to detect displacement of fragments. RESULTS: No significant differences were detected after cyclic loading as well as after load-to-failure testing, neither in regard to axial deformation, implant rigidity or maximum displacement. The fixed-angle single-row plate showed the highest pre-test rigidity, least increase in post-testing rigidity and highest load-to-failure rigidity and least radial shortening. The radial shortening of plates with two distal screw rows was 3.1 and 4.3 times higher, respectively, than that of the fixed-angle single-row plate. CONCLUSION: The results of our study indicate that two distal screw rows do not add to construct rigidity and resistance against loss of reduction. Well conducted clinical studies based on the findings of biomechanical studies are necessary to determine the optimal number of screws necessary to achieve reproducibly good results in the treatment of distal radius fractures.