Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

General preferences for consumption goods in the random matching model of commodity money

This paper generalizes the original random matching model of money byKiyotaki and Wright (1989) (KW) in two aspects: first, the economy ischaracterized by an arbitrary distribution of agents who specialize in producing aparticular consumption good; and second, these agents have preferences suchthat they want to consume any good with some probability. The resultsdepend crucially on the size of the fraction of producers of each goodand the probability with which different agents want to consume eachgood. KW and other related models are shown to be parameterizations ofthis more general one.

Laparoscopic and open colorectal surgery in everyday practice : retrospective study

Résumé Introduction: La plupart des études disponibles sur la chirurgie colorectale par laparoscopie concernent des patients hautement sélectionnés. Le but de cette étude est d'analyser les résultats à court et à long terme de l'ensemble des patients traités dans un service de chirurgie générale. Méthodes: Il s'agit d'une analyse rétrospective d'un registre prospectif interne au service, dans lequel tous les patients consécutifs opérés pour la première fois du colon et du rectum entre mars 1993 et décembre 1997 ont été enregistrés. Les informations concernant le suivi ont été collectées par questionnaire. Résultats: Un total de 187 patients ont été opérés par laparoscopie et 215 patients par chirurgie ouverte durant la période d'étude. Les informations concernant le suivi ont pu être collectées dans 95% des cas avec une évolution de 1-107 mois (médiane 59 mois), respectivement de 1-104 mois (médiane 53 mois). Une conversion fut nécessaire dans 28 cas (15%) mais ceux-ci restent inclus dans le groupe laparoscopie pour l'analyse par intention de traitement. Dans le groupe laparoscopie, les opérations ont duré plus longtemps (205 vs 150 min, p<0.001) mais l'hospitalisation a été plus courte (8 vs 13 jours, p<0.001). La reprise du transit a été plus rapide après laparoscopie, mais uniquement après intervention sur le colon gauche (3 vs 4 jours, p<0.01). Cependant, la sélection préopératoire (nombre plus élevé d'urgences et de patients avec un risque anesthésiologique élevé dans le groupe de la chirurgie ouverte) a été favorable à la laparoscopie. Le taux de complications (global ainsi que pour chaque complication chirurgicale) a été similaire dans les deux groupes, avec un taux global de 20% environ. Conclusions: Malgré une sélection favorable des cas, uniquement très peu d'avantages à la laparoscopie sur la chirurgie ouverte ont pu être observés. Abstract Background: Most studies available on laparoscopic colorectal surgery focus on highly selected patient groups. The aim of the present study was to review short- and long-term outcome of everyday patients treated in a general surgery department. Methods: Retrospective review was carried out of a prospective database of all consecutive patients having undergone primary laparoscopic (LAP) or open colorectal surgery between March 1993 and December 1997. Follow-up data were completed via questionnaire. Results: A total of 187 patients underwent LAP resection and 215 patients underwent open surgery. Follow up was complete in 95% with a median of 59 months (range, 1-107 months) and 53 months (range, 1-104 months), respectively. There were 28 conversions (15%) in the LAP group and these remained in the LAP group in an intention-to-treat analysis. The LAP operations lasted significantly longer for all types of resections (205 vs 150 min, P<0.001) and hospital stay was shorter (8 vs 13 days, P<0.001). Recovery of intestinal function was faster in the LAP group, but only after left-sided procedures (3 vs 4days, P<0.01). However, preoperative patient selection (more emergency operations and patients with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score in the open group) had a major influence on these elements and favours the LAP group. Surprisingly, the overall surgical complication rate (including long-term complications such as wound hernia) was 20% in both groups with rates of individual complications also being comparable in both groups. Conclusion: Despite a patient selection favourable to the laparoscopy group, only little advantage in postoperative outcome could be shown for the minimally invasive over the open approach in the everyday patient.

Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. The positive effect of financial liberalization is robust to different definitions. While the removal of capital account restrictions is effective by increasing financial depth, equity market liberalization affects growth directly. The empirical analysis is performed through GMM dynamic panel data estimations on a panel of 90 countries observed in the period 1975-1999.

Regional industrialisation without national growth: The Catalan industrialization and the growth of Spanish economy (1830-1861)

This paper has two main objectives. First, it provides a stylised descriptionof the Catalan industrial path of the period 1830-1861. Second, it reviewsthe evolution of the Catalan industry in the Spanish context and, thus, canserve to describe the relative importance of the Catalan industrialexperience. Consequently, it is mainly devoted to computing and analysing thegrowth rates of Catalan industries during the early phase of industrialisation.The results show that Catalonia experienced a true process ofindustrialisation during the period 1830 to 1861, but that its contributionin rapid increase in Spanish GDP was relatively small.

Organização e Publicação dos Termos do Website da ANACOM sob uma Perspetiva Linked Open Data

O propósito da Web Semântica é conseguir uma Web de dados totalmente ligada, isto é, numa perspetiva Linked Open Data. A Web Semântica deve garantir (estabelecendo padrões tecnológicos, vocabulários, linguagens lógicas, etc.) que os conteúdos publicados na Websejam inteligíveis quer por agentes humanos, quer por agentes máquina. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo responder à um problema delimitado, propondo uma solução no quadro da Web Semântica e suas tecnologias. Partindo-se de uma lista de termos em linguagem natural utilizados no Website da ANACOM (Autoridade Nacional de Comunicações), propomos uma organização de acordo com metodologias de construção de ontologias e vocabulários. Inspirámo-nos em duas metodologias, o Ontology Development 101 e o Process and Methodology for Core Vocabularies. O vocabulário controlado resultante, tem como base tecnológica o modelo de organização de conhecimento, recomendado pelo W3C (World Wide Web Consortium), o SKOS (Simple Knowledge Organization System). Trata-sede uma tecnologia standard da W3C desde 2009, utilizada na criação de tesauros,esquemas de classificação, taxonomias, glossários e outros tipos de vocabulários controlados. Como resultado da nossa intervenção, conseguimos organizar e codificar em SKOS, cerca de cinco centenas de termos identificados no Website da ANACOM. Para além da proposta do vocabulário controlado, passámos em revista às tecnologias e teorias que sustentam a temática da Web Semântica.

Firm-specific investment, sticky prices and the Taylor principle

According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one-for-one in response to changes in current inflation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by following this simple recommendation a central bank can avoid being a source of unnecessary fluctuations in economic activity. The present paper shows that this conclusion is not robust with respect to the modelling of capital accumulation. We use our insights to discuss the desirability of alternative interest raterules. Our results suggest a reinterpretation of monetary policy under Volcker and Greenspan: The empirically plausible characterization of monetary policy can explain the stabilization of macroeconomic outcomes observed in the early eighties for the US economy. The Taylor principle in itself cannot.

The survival of the welfare state

This paper provides an analytical characterization of Markov perfectequilibria in a politico-economic model with repeated voting, whereagents vote over distortionary income redistribution. The key featureof the theory is that the future constituency of redistributive policiesdepends positively on the current level of redistribution, since thisaffects both private investments and the future distribution of voters.Agents vote rationally and fullly anticipate the effects of their politicalchoice on both private incentives and future voting outcomes. The modelfeatures multiple equilibria. In "pro-welfare" equilibria, both welfarestate policies and their effects on distribution persist forever. In"anti-welfare equilibria", even a majority of beneficiaries ofredistributive policies vote strategically so as to induce the formationof a future majority that will vote for zero redistribution.

Unemployment vs. mismatch of talents: Reconsidering unemployment benefits

We develop an equilibrium search-matching model with risk-neutral agentsand two-sided ex-ante heterogeneity. Unemployment insurance has thestandard effect of reducing employment, but also helps workers to get a suitable job. The predictions of our simple modelare consistent with the contrasting performance of the labor market in Europeand US in terms of unemployment, productivity growth and wage inequality.To show this, we construct two fictitious economies with calibratedparameters which only differ by the degree of unemployment insurance andassume that they are hit by a common technological shock which enhancesthe importance of mismatch. This shock reduces the proportion of jobs whichworkers regards as acceptable in the economy with unemployment insurance(Europe). As a result, unemployment doubles in this economy.In the laissez-faire economy (US), unemployment remains constant,but wage inequality increases more and productivity grows less due to largermismatch. The model can be used to address a number of normative issues.

Crossing the Rio Grande: Migrations, business cycles and the welfare state

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of an inflow oflow-skilled workers into an economy where there is capital accumulation and two types of agents. We find that there are substantial dynamic effects following unexpected migrations with adjustments that resemble those triggered by a sudden disruption of the capital stock. We look at the interrelations between these dynamic effects and three different fiscal systems for the redistribution of income and find that these schemes can change the dynamics and lead to prolonged periods of adjustments. Theaggregate welfare implications are sensitive to the welfare system: while there are welfare gains without redistribution, these gains may be turned into costs when the state engages in redistribution.

North-south trade and directed technical change

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual propertyrights, market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Throughthis channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the sametime, integration with countries where intellectual property rights are weakly protectedcan slow down the world growth rate. A crucial implication of these results is thatprotection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction,which is novel in the literature, finds support in the data on a panel of 53 countriesobserved in the years 1965-1990.

Is altruism important for understanding the long-run effects of social security?

This paper quantifies the effects of social security on capital accumulation and wealth distribution in a life cycle framework with altruistic individuals. The main findings of this paper are that the current U.S. social security system has a significant impact on capital accumulation and wealth distribution. I find that social security crowds out 8\% of the capital stock of an economy without social security. This effect is driven by the distortions of labor supply due to the taxation of labor income rather than by the intergenerational redistribution of income imposed by the social security system. In contrast to previous analysis of social security, I found that social security does not affect the savings rate of the economy. Another interesting finding is that even though the current U.S. social security system is progressive in its benefits, it may lead to a more disperse distribution of wealth.

Assesing the political viability of labour market reform: The case of employment protection

We analyze the political support for employment protection legislation.Unlike my previous work on the same topic, this paper pays a lot ofattention to the role of obsolescence in the growth process.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer jobduration. The support for employment protection will then depend onthe value of the latter relative to the cost of the former. Wehighlight two key deeterminants of this trade-off: first, the workers'bargaining power, second, the economy's growth rate-more preciselyits rate of creative destruction.

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.