A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Evidence for allelic association of the dopamine β-hydroxylase gene (DBH) with susceptibility to typical migraine

Migraine is a debilitating neurological disorder characterized by recurrent attacks of severe headache. The disorder is highly prevalent, affecting approximately 12% of Caucasian populations. It is well known that migraine has a strong genetic component, although the type and number of genes involved is not yet clear. However, the calcium channel gene, CACNA1A, on chromosome 19 contains mutations responsible for familial hemiplegic migraine, a rare and severe subtype of migraine. There is also evidence to suggest that serotonin- and dopamine-related genes may be involved in the pathogenesis of migraine. This study employed a linkage and association approach to investigate neurotransmitter-related migraine candidate genes. Polymorphisms within the dopamine beta-hydroxylase (DBH) gene, serotonin transporter gene (SERT), and dopamine receptor gene (DRD2) were tested in 177 unrelated Caucasian migraineurs and 182 control individuals. In addition, an independent sample of 82 families affected with migraine was examined. Unrelated case-control association analysis of a DBH intragenic dinucleotide polymorphism indicated altered allelic distribution between migraine and control groups (L2=16.53, P=0.019). Furthermore, the transmission/disequilibrium test, which was implemented on the family data, also indicated distortion of allele transmission for the same DBH marker (L2=4.44, P=0.035). Together, these results provide evidence for allelic association of the DBH gene with typical migraine susceptibility (Fisher's combined P value=0.006) and indicate that further research into the role of the DBH gene in the etiology of migraine is warranted.

Impacts of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies on electricity market operations

The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept is based on the newly developed and marketed technologies of hybrid petrol-electric vehicles, most notably represented by the Toyota Prius, in combination with significant structural changes to the world's energy economy, and the growing strain on electricity networks. The work described in this presentation focuses on the market and economic impacts of grid connected vehicles. We investigate price reduction effects and transmission system expansion cost reduction. We modelled a large numbers of plug-in-hybrid vehicle batteries by aggregating them into a virtual pumped-storage power station at the Australian national electricity market's (NEM) region level. The virtual power station concept models a centralised control for dispatching (operating) the aggregated electricity supply/demand capabilities of a large number of vehicles and their batteries. The actual level of output could be controlled by human or automated agents to either charge or discharge from/into the power grid. As previously mentioned the impacts of widespread deployments of this technology are likely to be economic, environmental and physical.

Fuel consumption and gas emissions of an automatic transmission vehicle following simple eco-driving instructions on urban roads

Following eco-driving instructions can reduce fuel consumption between 5 to 20% on urban roads with manual cars. The majority of Australian cars have an automatic transmission gear-box. It is therefore of interest to verify whether current eco-driving instructions are e cient for such vehicles. In this pilot study, participants (N=13) drove an instrumented vehicle (Toyota Camry 2007) with an automatic transmission. Fuel consumption of the participants was compared before and after they received simple eco-driving instructions. Participants drove the same vehicle on the same urban route under similar tra c conditions. We found that participants drove at similar speeds during their baseline and eco-friendly drives, and reduced the level of their accelerations and decelerations during eco-driving. Fuel consumption decreased for the complete drive by 7%, but not on the motorway and inclined sections of the study. Gas emissions were estimated with the VT-micro model, and emissions of the studied pollutants (CO2, CO, NOX and HC) were reduced, but no di erence was observed for CO2 on the motorway and inclined sections. The di erence for the complete lap is 3% for CO2. We have found evidence showing that simple eco-driving instructions are e cient in the case of automatic transmission in an urban environment, but towards the lowest values of the spectrum of fuel consumption reduction from the di erent eco-driving studies.

Electropolishing of polycrystalline YBa2Cu3O7-δ to meet the need for sharp needle geometry

An electropolishing method has been developed for preparing sharp needles from polycrystalline YBa2Cu3O7-δ by modifying a recipe for TEM specimen preparation. The method is characterized by a polishing temperature of below 0°C, a non-acidic electrolyt and an even removal of the constituent phases. An approach was employed of combining I-V measurements for polishing process and microscopical observation of surface morphology in finding optimum polishing conditions. TEM evidenced that no preferential attack appeared to grain boundaries. X-ray diffractometry and electron diffraction implied that no change in oxygen content occurred during electropolishing. The sharpness of the tip was examined by field-ion microscopy.

Impact of socio-ecological variability on the transmission of malaria in Yunnan Province, China

This thesis is a population-based epidemiological study to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of malaria, and to assess the relationship between socio-ecological factors and malaria in Yunnan, China. Geospatial and temporal approaches were applied; the high risk areas of the disease were identified; and socio-ecological drivers of malaria were assessed. These findings will provide important evidence for the control and prevention of malaria in China and other countries with a similar situation of endemic malaria.

The formation of gold nanoparticles using hydroquinone as a reducing agent through a localized pH change upon addition of NaOH to a solution of HAuCl4

We demonstrate a rapid synthesis of gold nanoparticles using hydroquinone as a reducing agent under acidic conditions without the need for precursor seed particles. The nanoparticle formation process is facilitated by the addition of NaOH to a solution containing HAuCl4 and hydroquinone to locally change the pH; this enhances the reducing capability of hydroquinone to form gold nucleation centres, after which further growth of gold can take place through an autocatalytic mechanism. The stability of the nanoparticles is highly dependent on the initial solution pH, and both the concentration of added NaOH and hydroquinone present in solution. The gold nanoparticles were characterized by UV–visible spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy, dynamic light scattering, and zeta potential measurements. It was found that under optimal conditions that stable aqueous suspensions of 20 nm diameter nanoparticles can be achieved where benzoquinone, the oxidized product of hydroquinone, acts as a capping agent preventing nanoparticles aggregation.

Use of serum and blood samples on filter paper to improve the surveillance of dengue in Pacific Island Countries

Background In Pacific Island Countries (PICs) the epidemiology of dengue is characterized by long-term transmission of a single dengue virus (DENV) serotype. The emergence of a new serotype in one island country often indicates major outbreaks with this serotype will follow in other PICs. Objectives Filter paper (FP) cards on which whole blood or serum from dengue suspected patients had been dried was evaluated as a method for transportation of this material by standard mail delivery throughout the Pacific. Study design Twenty-two FP-dried whole blood samples collected from patients in New Caledonia and Wallis & Futuna Islands, during DENV-1 and DENV-4 transmission, and 76 FP-dried sera collected from patients in Yap State, Majuro (Republic of Marshall Islands), Tonga and Fiji, before and during outbreaks of DENV-2 in Yap State and DENV-4 in Majuro, were tested for the presence of DENV RNA, by serotype specific RT-PCR, at the Institut Louis Malardé in French Polynesia. Results The serotype of DENV could be determined, by a variety of RT-PCR procedures, in the FP-dried samples after more than three weeks of transport at ambient temperatures. In most cases, the sequencing of the envelope gene to genotype the viruses also was possible. Conclusions The serotype and genotype of DENV can be determined from FP-dried serum or whole blood samples transported over thousands of kilometers at ambient, tropical, temperatures. This simple and low-cost approach to virus identification should be evaluated in isolated and resource poor settings for surveillance for a range of significant viral diseases.

Children's exposure to domestic violence in Australia

Children's 'witnessing' or exposure to domestic violence has been increasingly recognised as a form of child abuse, both in Australia and internationally. Although it is difficult to accurately assess the scope of the problem, research has demonstrated that a substantial amount of domestic violence is witnessed by children. As this paper outlines, witnessing domestic violence can involve a range of incidents, ranging from the child 'only' hearing the violence, to the child being forced to participate in the violence or being used as part of a violent incident. In this paper, current knowledge about the extent of children's exposure to domestic violence in Australia is described, along with the documented impacts that this exposure can have on children. This includes psychological and behavioural impacts, health and socioeconomic impacts, and its link to the intergenerational transmission of violence and re-victimisation. Current legislative and policy initiatives are then described and some community-based programs that have been introduced in Australia to address the problem of children's exposure to domestic violence are highlighted. The paper concludes that initiatives focused on early intervention and holistic approaches to preventing and responding to children's exposure to domestic violence should be considered as part of strategies developed to address this problem.

Non-invasive clinical measurement of the viscoelastic properties of tendon using acoustic wave transmission

Background. In isotropic materials, the speed of acoustic wave propagation is governed by the bulk modulus and density. For tendon, which is a structural composite of fluid and collagen, however, there is some anisotropy requiring an adjustment for Poisson's ratio. This paper explores these relationships using data collected, in vivo, on human Achilles tendon and then compares estimates of elastic modulus and hysteresis against published values from in vitro mechanical tests. Methods. Measurements using conventional B-model ultrasound imaging, inverse dynamics and acoustic transmission techniques were used to determine dimensions, loading conditions and longitudinal speed of sound in the Achilles tendon during a series of isometric plantar flexion exercises against body weight. Upper and lower bounds for speed of sound versus tensile stress in the tendon were then modelled and estimates of the elastic modulus and hysteresis of the Achilles tendon derived. Results. Axial speed of sound varied between 1850 and 2090 ms-1 with a non-linear, asymptotic dependency on the level of tensile stress (5-35 MPa) in the tendon. Estimates derived for the elastic modulus of the Achilles tendon ranged between 1-2 GPa. Hysteresis derived from models of the stress-strain relationship, ranged from 3-11%. Discussion. Estimates of elastic modulus agree closely with those previously reported from direct measurements obtained via mechanical tensile tests on major weight bearing tendons in vitro [1,2]. Hysteresis derived from models of the stress-strain relationship is consistent with direct measures from various mamalian tendon (7-10%) but is lower than previous estimates in human tendon (17-26%) [3]. This non-invasive method would appear suitable for monitoring changes in tendon properties during dynamic sporting activities.

Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change. Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009. Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002. In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region. This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.

Innate and adaptive immunity at mucosal surfaces of the female reproductive tract : stratification and integration of immune protection against the transmission of sexually transmitted infections

This review examines the multiple levels of pre-existing immunity in the upper and lower female reproductive tract. In addition, we highlight the need for further research of innate and adaptive immune protection of mucosal surfaces in the female reproductive tract. Innate mechanisms include the mucus lining, a tight epithelial barrier and the secretion of antimicrobial peptides and cytokines by epithelial and innate immune cells. Stimulation of the innate immune system also serves to bridge the adaptive arm resulting in the generation of pathogen-specific humoral and cell-mediated immunity. Less understood are the multiple components that act in a coordinated way to provide a network of ongoing protection. Innate and adaptive immunity in the human female reproductive tract are influenced by the stage of menstrual cycle and are directly regulated by the sex steroid hormones, progesterone and estradiol. Furthermore, the effect of hormones on immunity is mediated both directly on immune and epithelial cells and indirectly by stimulating growth factor secretion from stromal cells. The goal of this review is to focus on the diverse aspects of the innate and adaptive immune systems that contribute to a unique network of protection throughout the female reproductive tract.

Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes aegyptipopulations in Cairns, Australia : assessing drivers of dengue transmission

OBJECTIVES To identify the meteorological drivers of dengue vector density and determine high- and low-risk transmission zones for dengue prevention and control in Cairns, Australia. METHODS Weekly adult female Ae. aegypti data were obtained from 79 double sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in Cairns for the period September 2007-May 2012. Maximum temperature, total rainfall and average relative humidity data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the study period. Time series-distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the relationship between meteorological variables and vector density. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed via semivariography, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to predict vector density in Cairns. RESULTS Ae. aegypti density was associated with temperature and rainfall. However, these relationships differed between short (0-6 weeks) and long (0-30 weeks) lag periods. Semivariograms showed that vector distributions were spatially autocorrelated in September 2007-May 2008 and January 2009-May 2009, and vector density maps identified high transmission zones in the most populated parts of Cairns city, as well as Machans Beach. CONCLUSION Spatiotemporal patterns of Ae. aegypti in Cairns are complex, showing spatial autocorrelation and associations with temperature and rainfall. Sticky ovitraps should be placed no more than 1.2 km apart to ensure entomological coverage and efficient use of resources. Vector density maps provide evidence for the targeting of prevention and control activities. Further research is needed to explore the possibility of developing an early warning system of dengue based on meteorological and environmental factors.