El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Summertime moisture transport over Southeastern South America and extratropical cyclones behavior during inter-El Nio events

The impact of the inter-El Nio (EN) variability on the moisture availability over Southeastern South America (SESA) is investigated. Also, an automatic tracking scheme was used to analyze the extratropical cyclones properties (system density - SD and central pressure - CP) in this region. During the austral summer period from 1977-2000, the differences for the upper-level wave train anomaly composites seem to determine the rainfall composite differences. In fact, the positive rainfall anomalies over most of the SESA domain during the strong EN events are explained by an upper-level cyclonic center over the tropics and an anticyclonic center over the eastern subtropical area. This pattern seems to contribute to upward vertical motion at 500 hPa and reinforcement of the meridional moisture transport from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and western Amazon basin to the SESA region. These features may contribute to the positive SD and negative CP anomalies explaining part of the positive rainfall anomalies found there. On the other hand, negative rainfall anomalies are located in the northern part of SESA for the weak EN years when compared to those for the strong events. Also, positive anomalies are found in the southern part, albeit less intense. It was associated with the weakening of the meridional moisture transport from the tropics to the SESA that seems have to contributed with smaller SD and CP anomalies over the most part of subtropics, when compared to the strong EN years.

Reduction kinetics of NiO-YSZ composite for application in solid oxide fuel cell

A porous nickel-8 mol% yttria stabilized zirconia (Ni-8YSZ) composite, used as anode for solid oxide fuel cell, was obtained by reduction of NiO-8YSZ cermet. The first goal was the evaluation of the temperature effect of powder processing by thermogravimetry. In addition, the influence of porosity in the reduction kinetic of the sample sintered at 1450 A degrees C was evaluated. The final porosity produced in NiO-8YSZ composite by pore former was 30.4 and 37.9 vol.%, respectively, for 10 and 15 mass% of corn starch. The sample with 15 mass% of corn starch promotes a reduction rate almost twice higher than sample with 10 mass% of corn starch. The porosity introduced by the reduction of NiO was 23 vol.%.

Synthesis of NiO-MgO-ZrO(2) catalysts and their performance in reforming of model biogas

Catalysts containing NiO/MgO/ZrO(2) mixtures were synthesized by the polymerization method in a single step. They were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature programmed reduction (TPR) and physisorption of N(2) (BET) and then tested in the reforming of a model biogas (1.5CH4:1CO(2)) in the presence of air (1.5CH(4) + 1CO(2) + 0.25O(2)) at 750 degrees C for 6h. It was observed that the catalyst Ni20MZ performed better in catalytic processes than the well known catalysts, Ni/ZrO(2) and Ni/MgO, synthesized under the same conditions. The formation of solid solutions, MgO-ZrO(2) and NiO-MgO, increased the rate of conversion of reactants (CH(4) and CO(2)) into synthesis gas (H(2) + CO). The formation of oxygen vacancies (in samples containing ZrO(2) and MgO) seems to promote removal of the coke deposited on the nickel surface. The values of the H(2)/CO ratio were generally found to be slightly lower than stoichiometric, owing to the reverse water gas shift reaction occurring in parallel. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CO preferential oxidation (CO-PROx) on La(1-x)Ce(x)NiO(3) perovskites

La(1-x)Ce(x)NiO(3) perovskites have been prepared, characterized by XRD. TPR and surface area and tested as catalysts for CO-PROx, with a feed of 2.5% CO, 5% O(2), 33% H(2) and N(2) to 100%. The samples exhibited an XRD pattern typical of the perovskite, with traces of NiO in the LaNiO(3) and La(0.95)Ce(0.05)NiO(3) samples, with some La(2)NiO(4) in the La(0.90)Ce(0.10)NiO(3) sample. All samples were active, but the perovskites with cerium showed good catalytic activity, demonstrating the promoter effect of cerium. The highest conversion of CO and H(2) was obtained with La(0.95)Ce(0.05)NiO(3), probably due to a synergy between Ni and Ce that enhanced O(2) mobility. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efeitos associados a El Niño e La Niña na vegetação do estado do Rio Grande do Sul

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos associados a El Niño e La Niña sobre o crescimento e desenvolvimento da cobertura vegetal e sua evolução temporal no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizando imagens do satélite NOAA. Foram utilizados dados mensais de precipitação pluvial e imagens de Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI), no período de julho de 1981 a junho de 2000, sendo as análises feitas para todo o Estado e para as diversas Zonas de Cobertura e Uso do Solo. Os dados, classificados como El Niño, La Niña e neutro, foram utilizados para confeccionar imagens médias, imagens de anomalias e para traçar gráficos de evolução temporal de NDVI. Por fim, foi feita a análise da relação entre precipitação pluvial e NDVI. Os resultados mostraram que as diversas Zonas de Cobertura e Uso do Solo apresentam padrões diferenciados de variação na cobertura vegetal ao longo do ano, o qual é determinado pela disponibilidade hídrica, de radiação solar e de temperatura, sendo possível quantificar as alterações do padrão, através do monitoramento com imagens de NDVI/NOAA. Parte da variabilidade interanual do padrão de evolução do NDVI está associada à ocorrência do fenômeno El Niño e La Niña, como conseqüência, principalmente, do efeito deste fenômeno sobre a precipitação pluvial do Estado. Em anos de El Niño há um aumento na precipitação pluvial e conseqüentemente anomalias positivas de NDVI, enquanto que em anos de La Niña ocorre diminuição da precipitação pluvial a qual proporciona predominância de anomalias negativas de NDVI. Existe um tempo de resposta da vegetação às condições hídricas, ocasionado por uma defasagem entre o aumento ou diminuição da precipitação pluvial e o conseqüente aumento ou decréscimo de NDVI. O padrão e a intensidade dos efeitos no NDVI associados ao fenômeno El Niño e La Niña, estão relacionados às condições edafoclimáticas e de uso e cobertura do solo. As relações entre NDVI e precipitação pluvial evidenciam que este é um dos principais elementos que influi nas condições de crescimento vegetal para o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

Síntese e caracterização de NiO-CGO para anodo e eletrólitos sólidos e base de Céria para SOFC

The direct use of natural gas makes the Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) potentially more competitive with the current energy conversions technologies. The Intermediate Temperature SOFC (IT-SOFC) offer several advantages over the High Temperature SOFC (HT-SOFC), which includes better thermal compatibility among components, fast start with lower energy consumption, manufacture and operation cost reduction. The CeO2 based materials are alternatives to the Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) to application in SOFC, as they have higher ionic conductivity and less ohmic losses comparing to YSZ, and they can operate at lower temperatures (500-800°C). Ceria has been doped with a variety of cations, although, the Gd3+ has the ionic radius closest to the ideal one to form solid solution. These electrolytes based in ceria require special electrodes with a higher performance and chemical and termomechanical compatibility. In this work compounds of gadolinia-doped ceria, Ce1-xGdxO2-δ (x = 0,1; 0,2 and 0,3), used as electrolytes, were synthesized by polymeric precursors method, Pechini, as well as the composite material NiO - Ce0,9Gd0,1O1,95, used as anode, also attained by oxide mixture method, mixturing the powders of the both phases calcinated already. The materials were characterized by X ray diffraction, dilatometry and scanning electronic microscopy. The refinement of the diffraction data indicated that all the Ce1-xGdxO2-δ powders were crystallized in a unique cubic phase with fluorite structure, and the composite synthesized by Pechini method produced smaller crystallite size in comparison with the same material attained by oxide mixture method. All the produced powders had nanometric characteristics. The composite produced by Pechini method has microstructural characteristics that can increase the triple phase boundaries (TPB) in the anode, improving the cell efficiency, as well as reducing the mass transport mechanism effect that provokes anode degradation

Influência do método de síntese e caracterização de pós compósitos de NiO- Ce1-xEuxO2-δ para anodos catalíticos de células a combustível

Fuel cells are electrochemical devices that convert chemical energy into electricity. Due to the development of new materials, fuel cells are emerging as generating clean energy generator. Among the types of fuel cells, categorized according to the electrode type, the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) stand out due to be the only device entirely made of solid particles. Beyond that, their operation temperature is relatively high (between 500 and 1000 °C), allowing them to operate with high efficiency. Another aspect that promotes the use of SOFC over other cells is their ability to operate with different fuels. The CeO2 based materials doped with rare earth (TR+3) may be used as alternatives to traditional NiO-YSZ anodes as they have higher ionic conductivity and smaller ohmic losses compared to YSZ, and can operate at lower temperatures (500-800°C). In the composition of the anode, the concentration of NiO, acting as a catalyst in YSZ provides high electrical conductivity and high electrochemical activity of reactions, providing internal reform in the cell. In this work compounds of NiO - Ce1-xEuxO2-δ (x = 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3) were synthesized from polymeric precursor, Pechini, method of combustion and also by microwave-assisted hydrothermal method. The materials were characterized by the techniques of TG, TPR, XRD and FEG-SEM. The refinement of data obtained by X-ray diffraction showed that all powders of NiO - Cex-1EuxO2-δ crystallized in a cubic phase with fluorite structure, and also the presence of Ni. Through the characterizations can be proved that all routes of preparation used were effective for producing ceramics with characteristics suitable for application as SOFC anodes, but the microwave-assisted hydrothermal method showed a significant reduction in the average grain size and improved control of the compositions of the phases

Electrical properties of YSZ/NiO composites prepared by a liquid mixture technique

We report the preparation and characterization of yttria-stabilized zirconia/nickel oxide composites (YSZ/NiO). This composite is the precursor material of the cermet YSZ/Ni, which is used as solid oxide fuel cell anode material. The performance of the anode is strongly dependent on the microstructural properties of the cermet. Therefore, the control of the microstructure of the YSZ/NiO composite is a key step for the fabrication of high-performance anodes. In this study, the composites were prepared by a modified liquid mixture technique. Scanning electron microscopy analysis evidenced the good dispersion of the phases and that NiO nanoparticles are spread over the YSZ surface. Sintered pellets were studied by X-ray diffraction and impedance spectroscopy. The main results show that the composite is comprised of a well-dispersed mixture of the two phases. The electrical conductivity data show that there is a strong dependence of the transport mechanism on the relative composition of phases. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

O limiar de esforço percebido (LEP) corresponde à potência crítica e a um indicador de máximo estado estável de consumo de oxigěnio

The perceived exertion has been a target of several investigations, many times with association with objective physiological indicators in exercise. Recently, the identification of the perceived exertion threshold (PET) was proposed in the water running, which presented no difference in relation to the critical velocity. Theoretically, both parameters would be indicators of the maximum steady state of variables such as V̇O2 and blood lactate. The objective of this work was to verify the coincidence between PET, critical power (PCrit) and an indicator of maximum V̇O2 steady state (PCrit') in cycle ergometer. Eight male participants were submitted to progressive effort test in order to determine V̇O2peak (46.7 ± 8.5 ml/kg/min) and to four rectangular tests until exhaustion for the estimation of the critical power model parameters, PET and PCrit'. The hyperbolic relation between mechanical power and time spent for the V̇O2peak to be reached in each test was used for the PCrit' estimation, considered as the asymptote in the power axis, and the portion of the anaerobic work capacity (CTAnaer) depleted up to the establishment of the V̇O2peak (CTAnaer'). In order to identify PET, the straight lines angular coefficients of the perceived exertion in time (ordinate) and the powers used (abscissa) were adjusted to a linear function that provided a point in the power axis in which the perceived exertion would be kept indefinitely stable. The parameters PCrit and CTAnaer were estimated by means of the power-time non-linear equation. In order to compare the estimations of PET, PCrit and PCrit', the analysis of variance ANOVA for repeated measurements was employed, and the associations were established through the Pearson correlation. CTAnaer and CTAnaer' were compared through the t test. PET (180 W ± 61 W), PCrit (174 W ± 43 W) and PCrit' (176 W ± 48 W) were not significantly different and the correlations were of 0.92-0.98. CTAnaer' (14,080 ± 5,219 J) was lower than CTAnaer (22,093 ± 9,042 J). One concludes that the PET predicts the intensity of PCrit and PCrit' with accuracy.

Microstructural and electrical properties of the sofc anode precursor YSZ/NiO composite prepared by A liquid mixture technique

A detailed study of the microstructural and electrical properties of the yttria-stabilized zirconia/nickel oxide (YSZ/NiO) composite was performed. This material is the precursor to the solid oxide fuel cell anode cermet YSZ/Ni. A liquid mixture technique was developed to produce the YSZ/NiO composite to fabricate high-performance SOFC anodes. This technique resulted in fine and homogeneous powders and specimens with high electrical conductivity. The combined results showed that this technique is suitable for the production of the anode cermet.

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Deposition and photo-induced electrical resistivity of dip-coated NiO thin films from a precipitation process

Thin films of the semiconductor NiO are deposited using a straightforward combination of simple and versatile techniques: the co-precipitation in aqueous media along with the dip- coating process. The obtained material is characterized by gravimetric/differential thermal analysis (TG-DTA) and X-ray diffraction technique. TG curve shows 30 % of total mass loss, whereas DTA indicates the formation of the NiO phase about 578 K (305 C). X-ray diffraction (XRD) data confirms the FCC crystalline phase of NiO, whose crystallinity increases with thermal annealing temperature. UV-Vis optical absorption measurements are carried out for films deposited on quartz substrate in order to avoid the masking of bandgap evaluation by substrate spectra overlapping. The evaluated bandgap is about 3.0 eV. Current-voltage (I-V) curves measured for different temperatures as well as the temperature-dependent resistivity data show typical semiconductor behavior with the resistivity increasing with the decreasing of temperature. The Arrhenius plot reveals a level 233 meV above the conduction band top, which was attributed to Ni2+ vacancy level, responsible for the p-type electrical nature of NiO, even in undoped samples. Light irradiation on the films leads to a remarkable behavior, because above bandgap light induced a resistivity increase, despite the electron-hole generation. This performance was associated with excitation of the Ni 2+ vacancy level, due to the proximity between energy levels. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Influence of the indium concentration on microstructural and electrical properties of proton conducting NiO-BaCe0.9-xIn xY0.1O3-δ cermet anodes for IT-SOFC application

Optimization of the major properties of anodes based on proton conductors, such as microstructure, conductivity and chemical stability, is yet to be achieved. In this study we investigated the influence of indium on the chemical stability, microstructural and electrical characteristics of proton conducting NiO-BaCe0.9-xInxY0.1O 3-δ (NiO-BCIYx) anodes. Four compositions of cermet anode substrates NiO-BCIYx were prepared using the method of evaporation and decomposition of solutions and suspensions (EDSS). Sintered anode substrates were reduced and their microstructural and electrical properties were examined before and after reduction as a function of the amount of indium. Anode substrates tested on chemical stability in the CO2 atmosphere showed high stability compared to anode substrates based on commonly used doped barium cerates. Microstructural properties of the anode pellets before and after testing in CO2 were investigated using X-ray diffraction analysis. Impedance spectroscopy measurements were used for evaluation of electrical properties of the anode pellets and the conductivity values of reduced anodes of more than 14 S cm-1 at 600 °C confirmed percolations through Ni particles. Under fuel cell operating conditions, the cell with a Ni-BCIY20 anode achieved the highest performance, demonstrating a peak power density 223 mW/cm2 at 700 °C confirming the functionality of Ni-BCIY anodes.© 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Descripción de las actividades de información del Instituto Interamericano del Niño

Contiene descripción de los objetivos del Instituto, de sus actividades en materia de población, de la información utilizada y generada, de sus unidades de información bibliográfica, y sugerencias sobre cooperación regional.