Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel variant on chromosome 7q22.3 associated with mean platelet volume, counts, and function

Mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet count (PLT) are highly heritable and tightly regulated traits. We performed a genome-wide association study for MPV and identified one SNP, rs342293, as having highly significant and reproducible association with MPV (per-G allele effect 0.016 +/- 0.001 log fL; P < 1.08 x 10(-24)) and PLT (per-G effect -4.55 +/- 0.80 10(9)/L; P < 7.19 x 10(-8)) in 8586 healthy subjects. Whole-genome expression analysis in the 1-MB region showed a significant association with platelet transcript levels for PIK3CG (n = 35; P = .047). The G allele at rs342293 was also associated with decreased binding of annexin V to platelets activated with collagen-related peptide (n = 84; P = .003). The region 7q22.3 identifies the first QTL influencing platelet volume, counts, and function in healthy subjects. Notably, the association signal maps to a chromosome region implicated in myeloid malignancies, indicating this site as an important regulatory site for hematopoiesis. The identification of loci regulating MPV by this and other studies will increase our insight in the processes of megakaryopoiesis and proplatelet formation, and it may aid the identification of genes that are somatically mutated in essential thrombocytosis. (Blood. 2009; 113: 3831-3837)

A theoretical adaptive model of thermal comfort – Adaptive Predicted Mean Vote (aPMV)

This paper presents in detail a theoretical adaptive model of thermal comfort based on the “Black Box” theory, taking into account factors such as culture, climate, social, psychological and behavioural adaptations, which have an impact on the senses used to detect thermal comfort. The model is called the Adaptive Predicted Mean Vote (aPMV) model. The aPMV model explains, by applying the cybernetics concept, the phenomena that the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) is greater than the Actual Mean Vote (AMV) in free-running buildings, which has been revealed by many researchers in field studies. An Adaptive coefficient (λ) representing the adaptive factors that affect the sense of thermal comfort has been proposed. The empirical coefficients in warm and cool conditions for the Chongqing area in China have been derived by applying the least square method to the monitored onsite environmental data and the thermal comfort survey results.

Preliterate phonological awareness and early literacy skills in Turkish

The role of preschool phonological awareness in early reading and spelling skills was investigated in the transparent orthography of Turkish. Fifty-six preschool children (mean age=5.6 years) were followed into Grade 2 (mean age=7.6 years). While preschool phonological awareness failed to make any reliable contribution to future reading skills, it was the strongest longitudinal correlate of spelling skills measured at the end of Grades 1 and 2. Overall findings suggested that phonological awareness may be differentially related to reading and spelling, and that spelling is a more sensitive index of phonological processing skills. In this study, verbal short-term memory emerged as the most powerful and consistent longitudinal correlate of reading speed. This finding raised important questions about the component processes of reading speed, and the role of memory and morphosyntactic skills in an agglutinative and transparent orthography such as Turkish.

What do we mean when we refer to Bacteroidetes populations in the human gastrointestinal microbiota?

Recent large-scale cloning studies have shown that the ratio of Bacteroidetes to Firmicutes may be important in the obesity-associated gut microbiota, but the species these phyla represent in this ecosystem has not been examined. The Bacteroidetes data from the recent Turnbaugh study were examined to determine those members of the phylum detected in human faecal samples. In addition, FISH analysis was performed on faecal samples from 17 healthy, nonobese donors using probe Bac303, routinely used by gut microbiologists to enumerate BacteroidesPrevotella populations in faecal samples, and another probe (CFB286) whose target range has some overlap with that of Bac303. Sequence analysis of the Turnbaugh data showed that 23/519 clones were chimeras or erroneous sequences; all good sequences were related to species of the order Bacteroidales, but no one species was present in all donors. FISH analysis demonstrated that approximately one-quarter of the healthy, nonobese donors harboured high numbers of Bacteroidales not detected by probe Bac303. It is clear that Bacteroidales populations in human faecal samples have been underestimated in FISH-based studies. New probes and complementary primer sets should be designed to examine numerical and compositional changes in the Bacteroidales during dietary interventions and in studies of the obesity-associated microbiota in humans and animal model systems.

Borg's rating of perceived exertion scales: do the verbal anchors mean the same for different clinical groups?

Objective: To examine the interpretation of the verbal anchors used in the Borg rating of perceived exertion (RPE) scales in different clinical groups and a healthy control group. Design: Prospective experimental study. Setting: Rehabilitation center. Participants: Nineteen subjects with brain injury, 16 with chronic low back pain (CLBP), and 20 healthy controls. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Subjects used a visual analog scale (VAS) to rate their interpretation of the verbal anchors from the Borg RPE 6-20 and the newer 10-point category ratio scale. Results: All groups placed the verbal anchors in the order that they occur on the scales. There were significant within-group differences (P > .05) between VAS scores for 4 verbal anchors in the control group, 8 in the CLBP group, and 2 in the brain injury group. There was no significant difference in rating of each verbal anchor between the groups (P > .05). Conclusions: All subjects rated the verbal anchors in the order they occur on the scales, but there was less agreement in rating of each verbal anchor among subjects in the brain injury group. Clinicians should consider the possibility of small discrepancies in the meaning of the verbal anchors to subjects, particularly those recovering from brain injury, when they evaluate exercise perceptions.

Effect of priming cooperation or individualism on a collective and interdependent task: changeover speed in the 4 x 100-meter relay race

Priming effects of cooperation vs. individualism were investigated on changeover speed within a 4 x 100-m relay race. Ten teams of four adult beginner athletes ran two relays, a pretest race and an experimental race 3 weeks later. Just before the experimental race, athletes were primed with either cooperation or individualism through a scrambled-sentence task. Comparing to the pretest performance, cooperation priming improved baton speed in the exchange zone (+30 cm/s). Individualism priming did not impair changeover performance. The boundary conditions of priming effects applied to collective and interdependent tasks are discussed within the implicit coordination framework.

Variable step LMS algorithm using the accumulated instantaneous error concept

The convergence speed of the standard Least Mean Square adaptive array may be degraded in mobile communication environments. Different conventional variable step size LMS algorithms were proposed to enhance the convergence speed while maintaining low steady state error. In this paper, a new variable step LMS algorithm, using the accumulated instantaneous error concept is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the accumulated instantaneous error is used to update the step size parameter of standard LMS is varied. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is simpler and yields better performance than conventional variable step LMS.

A practical method for testing high-speed networking hardware architectures

This paper deals with the key issues encountered in testing during the development of high-speed networking hardware systems by documenting a practical method for "real-life like" testing. The proposed method is empowered by modern and commonly available Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) technology. Innovative application of standard FPGA blocks in combination with reconfigurability are used as a back-bone of the method. A detailed elaboration of the method is given so as to serve as a general reference. The method is fully characterised and compared to alternatives through a case study proving it to be the most efficient and effective one at a reasonable cost.