An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Electrodynamic heart model construction and ECG simulation

Objectives: In this paper, we present a unified electrodynamic heart model that permits simulations of the body surface potentials generated by the heart in motion. The inclusion of motion in the heart model significantly improves the accuracy of the simulated body surface potentials and therefore also the 12-lead ECG. Methods: The key step is to construct an electromechanical heart model. The cardiac excitation propagation is simulated by an electrical heart model, and the resulting cardiac active forces are used to calculate the ventricular wall motion based on a mechanical model. The source-field point relative position changes during heart systole and diastole. These can be obtained, and then used to calculate body surface ECG based on the electrical heart-torso model. Results: An electromechanical biventricular heart model is constructed and a standard 12-lead ECG is simulated. Compared with a simulated ECG based on the static electrical heart model, the simulated ECG based on the dynamic heart model is more accordant with a clinically recorded ECG, especially for the ST segment and T wave of a V1-V6 lead ECG. For slight-degree myocardial ischemia ECG simulation, the ST segment and T wave changes can be observed from the simulated ECG based on a dynamic heart model, while the ST segment and T wave of simulated ECG based on a static heart model is almost unchanged when compared with a normal ECG. Conclusions: This study confirms the importance of the mechanical factor in the ECG simulation. The dynamic heart model could provide more accurate ECG simulation, especially for myocardial ischemia or infarction simulation, since the main ECG changes occur at the ST segment and T wave, which correspond with cardiac systole and diastole phases.

Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Observations in a maternity ward: Usability considerations for EHRs in an interrupt driven environment

With the increasing demand on healthcare systems it is imperative that all care is provided as efficiently and effectively as possible. Technology within the medical domain offers an exciting opportunity to augment work practices in order to meet these needs. This research project explores the implications of the interrupt-driven nature of work in clinical situations on documentation within an environment that increasingly involves electronic health records (EHRs). Midwives in a busy maternity ward were observed and interviewed about the work practices they employed to document information associated with patient care. The results showed that the interrupt-driven nature of the workplace, a feature common to many healthcare settings, led to a tension between the work and the work to document the work. Further, the IT environment in which the information was collected was not designed to cater for frequent interruption of the data entry process. Several recommendations for improving the IT environment are proposed to support health professionals in documenting patient data whilst attending to the interruptions. The recommendations include timeout screens, push technology, use of handheld PDAs, and cues to augment documentation in an interrupted session. Copyright © 2008 RMIT Publishing

DO VIRTUAL AO REAL: COMUNICAÇÃO, SEXO E INTERNET

Este trabalho é um estudo exploratório sobre o Ambiente Comunicacional Internet que investiga tanto a possibilidade da influência de suas ferramentas de interação/comunicação sobre o comportamento sexual e de risco quanto o desenvolvimento de comportamento compulsivo no uso destas ferramentas na busca de parceiros sexuais. A metodologia adotada é, além da pesquisa bibliográfica, a da pesquisa exploratória, um levantamento e análise de dados quantitativos e pode ser considerada como pertencente ao paradigma tradicional empírico, pois a coleta de dados foi baseada em respostas a questionários semi-estruturados, aplicados a um grupo de informação composto por 428 estudantes universitários dos cursos ligados à área de Computação e Informática de uma instituição particular de Ensino Superior do município de São Paulo SP, Brasil. Para isso, obedece à Resolução do Conselho Nacional de Saúde CNS 196/96 e conta com o TCLE. Os resultados indicam que as práticas sexuais, a exposição a DST e vírus HIV e, particularmente, a tendência ao desenvolvimento do Transtorno de Adicção à Internet se distinguem de modo irrefutável. Os participantes que alegaram buscar parceiros sexuais reais na Internet são diretos nos seus objetivos, pois quando encontram esse parceiro concretizam o ato sexual, em ambientes impessoais, como por exemplo, o motel, e muitas vezes de modo arriscado no que toca à prevenção e à segurança no contato com outro. Destaca-se, ainda, que a compulsão não é reconhecida pelo grupo e que a procura de parceiros por intermédio das mídias digitais, para esse grupo, não está relacionada a itens negativos quanto a sua qualidade de vida o que suscita o estudo e a discussão mais aprofundada sobre a interação comunicação, sexo e Internet .(AU)

Combining the power of online crowdsourcing with creative writing user interfaces

The goal of this work was to provide professional and amateur writers with a new way of enhancing their productivity and mental well-being, by helping them overcoming writers block and being able to achieve a state of optimal experience while writing. Our approach is based on bringing together different components to create what we call a creative moment. A creative moment is composed by an image, a text, a mood, a location and a color. The color presented in the creative moment varied according to the mood that was associated to the creative moment. With the creative moments we hoped that our users could have a way to easily trigger their creativity and have a kick start in their work. The prototyping of a web crowdsourcing platform, named CreativeWall, and a Microsoft Word Add-In, that was used on the user study performed, is described and their implementations are discussed. The user study reveals that our approach does have a positive influence in the productivity of the participants when compared with another existing approach. The study also revealed that our approach can ease the process of achieving a state of optimal experience by enhancing one of the dimensions presented on the Flow Theory. At the end we present what we consider would be some possible future developments for the concept created during the development of this work.

Knowledge representation with ontologies: present challenges future possibilities

Ontologies have become the knowledge representation medium of choice in recent years for a range of computer science specialities including the Semantic Web, Agents, and Bio-informatics. There has been a great deal of research and development in this area combined with hype and reaction. This special issue is concerned with the limitations of ontologies and how these can be addressed, together with a consideration of how we can circumvent or go beyond these constraints. The introduction places the discussion in context and presents the papers included in this issue.

Evaluating the effectiveness of Bayesian feature selection

A practical Bayesian approach for inference in neural network models has been available for ten years, and yet it is not used frequently in medical applications. In this chapter we show how both regularisation and feature selection can bring significant benefits in diagnostic tasks through two case studies: heart arrhythmia classification based on ECG data and the prognosis of lupus. In the first of these, the number of variables was reduced by two thirds without significantly affecting performance, while in the second, only the Bayesian models had an acceptable accuracy. In both tasks, neural networks outperformed other pattern recognition approaches.

Computer aided selection of candidate vaccine antigens

Immunoinformatics is an emergent branch of informatics science that long ago pullulated from the tree of knowledge that is bioinformatics. It is a discipline which applies informatic techniques to problems of the immune system. To a great extent, immunoinformatics is typified by epitope prediction methods. It has found disappointingly limited use in the design and discovery of new vaccines, which is an area where proper computational support is generally lacking. Most extant vaccines are not based around isolated epitopes but rather correspond to chemically-treated or attenuated whole pathogens or correspond to individual proteins extract from whole pathogens or correspond to complex carbohydrate. In this chapter we attempt to review what progress there has been in an as-yet-underexplored area of immunoinformatics: the computational discovery of whole protein antigens. The effective development of antigen prediction methods would significantly reduce the laboratory resource required to identify pathogenic proteins as candidate subunit vaccines. We begin our review by placing antigen prediction firmly into context, exploring the role of reverse vaccinology in the design and discovery of vaccines. We also highlight several competing yet ultimately complementary methodological approaches: sub-cellular location prediction, identifying antigens using sequence similarity, and the use of sophisticated statistical approaches for predicting the probability of antigen characteristics. We end by exploring how a systems immunomics approach to the prediction of immunogenicity would prove helpful in the prediction of antigens.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

The role of stochasticity in an information-optimal neural population code

In this paper we consider the optimisation of Shannon mutual information (MI) in the context of two model neural systems The first is a stochastic pooling network (population) of McCulloch-Pitts (MP) type neurons (logical threshold units) subject to stochastic forcing; the second is (in a rate coding paradigm) a population of neurons that each displays Poisson statistics (the so called 'Poisson neuron'). The mutual information is optimised as a function of a parameter that characterises the 'noise level'-in the MP array this parameter is the standard deviation of the noise, in the population of Poisson neurons it is the window length used to determine the spike count. In both systems we find that the emergent neural architecture and; hence, code that maximises the MI is strongly influenced by the noise level. Low noise levels leads to a heterogeneous distribution of neural parameters (diversity), whereas, medium to high noise levels result in the clustering of neural parameters into distinct groups that can be interpreted as subpopulations In both cases the number of subpopulations increases with a decrease in noise level. Our results suggest that subpopulations are a generic feature of an information optimal neural population.