Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Minerais, métaux, isotopes : recherches archéométriques sur les mines de plomb et d'argent en Valais, Suisse

RESUME Les nombreuses mines de plomb et d'argent du Valais témoignent d'une activité minière importante par le passé, sans toutefois dévoiler ni l'importance des minéralisations, ni l'ancienneté de l'exploitation. La présente recherche a pour but de comprendre pourquoi les grandes mines sont concentrées dans une région, et de déterminer la chronologie de leur exploitation. L'originalité de ce travail réside dans son interdisciplinarité, plus précisément dans l'application des méthodes minéralogiques pour résoudre une problématique historique. Afin d'évaluer les ressources minières en plomb et en argent du Valais, 57 mines et indices ont été repérés et échantillonnés. Les signatures isotopiques du Pb (74 analyses) et les compositions chimiques élémentaires (45 analyses) ont été déterminées. Les plus grandes exploitations se situent dans la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel, au Sud d'une ligne Vallée du Rhône / Val de Bagnes ainsi que dans le Lötschental. Elles sont liées, d'après leur signature isotopique de plomb, à des minéralisations d'âge calédonien (408 à 387 Ma) ou tardi-hercynien (333 à 286 Ma). À ces périodes, l'ancien continent est très lourd et subit une subsidence thermique. Des premières fractures d'extrême importance se forment. Comme il s'agit d'accidents tectoniques majeurs, des gisements de grande extension peuvent se former dans ce contexte. D'autres minéralisations se situent dans les domaines helvétiques (Massif des Aiguilles Rouges, Massif du Mont Blanc et couverture sédimentaire), couvrant une région au Nord de la Vallée du Rhône et du Val d'Entremont. D'âge post-hercynien à tardi-alpin (notons qu'il n'y a pas de minéralisations d'âge tertiaire), elles sont pour la plupart liées à des intrusions granitiques, sources de plomb juvénile. Les mines situées dans ces unités tectoniques sont nettement moins étendues que celles de la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel, ce qui permet de penser que les minéralisations correspondantes le sont également. Les périodes d'exploitation des mines peuvent être déterminées par quatre approches différentes l'archéologie minière, la lecture des textes historiques, l'étude des déchets métallurgiques et la comparaison de la signature isotopique du plomb, que l'on mesure dans un objet archéologique bien daté (monnaie, bijoux etc.), avec celles des minerais. Cette dernière méthode a été appliquée et développée dans le cadre de la présente recherche. Pour ce faire, 221 échantillons d'objet en plomb ou en argent datés entre l'Âge du Fer et le Moyen Age ont été analysés par la méthode des isotopes de plomb et comparés à environ 1800 signatures isotopiques de minerais des gisements les plus importants en Suisse et en Europe. Avant l'époque romaine et jusqu'au 1 er siècle de cette époque, le plomb provient principalement des mines de la péninsule ibérique alors en pleine activité. Un apport des mines d'Europe tempérée, notamment des Vosges, reste à confirmer. A partir du 1" siècle de notre ère, le plomb a principalement été importé en Suisse occidentale de grands centres de productions situées en Allemagne du Nord (région d'Eifel). Les mines de plomb valaisannes, notamment celles de Siviez, débutent leur exploitation en même temps, principalement pour couvrir les besoins locaux, mais également pour l'exportation jusque dans l'arc lémanique et, dans une moindre importance, au-delà. À partir du 4ème siècle, le besoin en plomb a été couvert par un apport des mines locales et par la refonte d'objets anciens. Ce changement d'approvisionnement est probablement lié aux tensions créées par les invasions germaniques durant la seconde moitié du 3' siècle ; le marché suisse n'est dès lors plus approvisionné par le nord, c'est-à-dire par la vallée du Rhin. Quant à l'argent, l'exploitation de ce métal est attestée à partir de la fin du La Tène, peu après l'apparition de ce métal dans la région valaisanne. L'échantillonnage ne couvrant pas l'époque romaine, rien n'est connu pour cette période. A partir du 5" siècle, une exploitation d'argent est de nouveau attestée. Cependant, l'exploitation d'argent des mines locales ne gagne en importance qu'à partir du Moyen Âge avec les frappes monétaires, notamment les frappes carolingiennes et épiscopales valaisannes. Les sources d'argent sont différentes selon leur utilisation : à part quelques exceptions notamment vers la fin du La Tène et au tardo-antique, les bijoux et objets de cultes ont été souvent créés à partir d'argent refondu, contrairement aux monnaies pour lesquelles l'argent provient des mines locales. On note un approvisionnement différent de ce métal pour les objets, notamment les monnaies, selon leur lieu de fabrication : on peut clairement distinguer les objets valaisans de ceux du Plateau Suisse. SUMMARY The many lead and silver mines of the Valais testify of an important mining activity in the past, without however revealing neither the importance of the mineralizations, nor the era of the exploitation. The purpose of this research is to understand why the large mines are concentrated in one region, and to determine the history of their exploitation. The uniqueness of this work lies in its interdisciplinarity, more precisely in the application of mineralogical methods to solve historical problems. In order to evaluate the lead and silver mining resources of the Valais region, 57 mines and ore deposits were located and sampled. The isotope signatures of Pb (74 analyses) and the compositions of the chemical elements (45 analyses) were determined. The largest activities are in the Siviez-Mischabel area, located in the South of the boundary formed by the Rhone, Bagnes and Lotschental valleys. According to their lead isotope signatures, they are linked to mineralizations of the Caledonian (408 to 387 my) or tardi-Hercynian (333 to 286 my) orogenies. In those times, the old continent was very heavy and underwent a thermal subsidence. First fractures of great significance were formed. Through these major tectonic events, large extended ore deposits can be formed. Other mineralizations are found in the helvetic regions situated north of the Rhone and the Entremont valley (the Aiguilles Rouges basement, Mount Blanc basement and the covering sediment). Because they are from post-hercynien to tardi-alpine age (there are no mineralizations of tertiary age), they are mainly linked to granite intrusions, the sources of juvenile lead. The mines found in these tectonic units are significantly less extensive than those of the Siviez-Mischabel area, leading to the assumption that the respective mineralizations extend accordingly. The history of exploitation of the mines can be determined by four different sources: mining archaeology, historical texts, metallurgical waste, and the comparison of the isotope signature of the lead from accurately dated archaeological objects (currency, jewels etc), with those of the ores. This last approach was applied and developed within the framework of this research. The lead isotope signatures of 221 lead or silver objects from the Iron Age to the Middle Age were compared with approximately 1800 samples of ore of the most important ore deposits in Switzerland and Europe. Before the Roman time up to the 1st century, lead comes mainly from the mines of the Iberian Peninsula then in full activity. A contribution of the mines of Central Europe, in particular of the Vosges, remains to be confirmed. From the 1st century on, lead was mainly imported into Western Switzerland from Northern Germany (Eiffel region). The lead mines in the Valais region, in particular those of Siviez, begin their exploitation at the same time, mainly to meet the local needs, but also for export to the lemanic basin and of lesser importance, beyond. As from the 4th century, the need of lead was met by the production from local mines and the recycling of old objects. This change of supply is probably related to the tensions created by the Germanic invasions during second half of the 3rd century; as a consequence, the Swiss market is not supplied any more by the north, i.e. the Rhine valley. Silver production is confirmed starting from the end of La Tene, shortly after the appearance of this metal in the Valais region. Since no objects of Roman origin were analyzed, nothing is known for this period. From the 5th century on, silver production is again confirmed. However, significant silver production from local mines starts only in the Middle Age with the coinage, in particular Carolingian and Episcopal minting from the Valais region. The sources of silver differ according to their use: besides some exceptions in particular towards the end of La Tene and the tardi-Roman, the jewels and objects of worships were often created from recycled silver, contrary to the coins the silver for which comes from the local mines. A different source of silver is observed according to the location of coin manufacture: Objects originating from the Valais region are clearly distinguished from those from the Plateau Suisse. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Die grosse Zahl von Blei- und Silberminen im Wallis ist Zeugnis einer bedeutenden Bergbautätigkeit, es fehlen aber Hinweise über ihren Umfang und den Zeitraum ihrer Ausbeutung. Die vorliegende Arbeit sucht zu ergründen, warum grosse Minen sich in einer eng begrenzten Region häufen und in welchem Zeitraum sie genutzt wurden. Die Besonderheit der Studie liegt in ihrer Interdisziplinarität, genauer in der Anwendung von mineralogischen Methoden zur Beantwortung historischer Fragestellungen. Zur Beurteilung der Lagerstätten wurden von 57 Minen und Aufschlüssen Proben entnommen oder Nachweise erbracht und mittels 74 Isotopen-Analysen von Blei und 45 chemischen Gesamtanalysen ausgewertet. Die wichtigsten Vorkommen liegen in der Siviez- Mischabel- Decke südlich der Linie Rhonetal- Val de Bagnes, sowie im Lötschental. Die Bleiisotopen- Alter weisen ihre Entstehung der kaledonischen (408 - 387 Mio. J.) oder der spät- herzynischen (333 - 286 Mio. J.) Gebirgsbildungsphase zu. In dieser Periode ist die kompakte Landmasse sehr schwer und erfairt eine thermische Absenkung. Es bilden sich tektonische Brüche von kontinentaler Ausdehnung. Die grossen tektonischen Bewegungen ermöglichen die Bildung von ausgedehnten Lagerstätten. Andere Vorkommen finden sich im Bereich der Helvetischen Alpen (Aiguilles Rouges Massiv, Mont-Blanc-Massiv und Sediment-Decken) im Gebiet nördlich des Rhonetales bis zum Val d'Entremont. Altersmässig sind sie der nach-hercynischen bis zur spät-alpidischen Orogenese zuzuweisen (auffällig ist das Fehlen von Vorkommen im Tertiär) und haben sich meist in der Folge von Granit- Intrusion, dem Ursprung von primärem Blei ausgebildet. Die Bergwerke in diesem Bereich sind deutlich weniger ausgedehnt als jene in der Siviez-Mischabel-Decke und entsprechen wahrscheinlich dem geringen Umfang der zugehörigen Vorkommen. Die Nutzungsperioden der Minen können mit vier verschiedenen Methoden bestimmt werden: Minenarchäologie, Historische Quellen, Auswertung von metallischen Abfällen (Schlacken) und Vergleich der Bleiisotopen-Zusammensetzung von Erzen mit jener von zeitlich gut datierbaren archäologischen Gegenständen (Münzen, Schmuckstücke). Die letztere Methode wurde im Rahmen der vorliegenden Forschungsarbeit entwickelt und angewendet. Zu diesem Zweck wurden an 221 Proben von Blei- oder Silberobjekten, die in die Periode zwischen Eisenzeit und Mittelalter eingestuft werden können, Bleiisotopen- Analysen durchgeführt und mit ca. 1800 Proben aus den wichtigsten Lagerstätten der Schweiz und Europas verglichen. Vor der Römerzeit und bis ins 1. Jahrh. stammt das Blei vornehmlich aus den in jener Zeit in voller Ausbeutung begriffenen Minen der Iberischen Halbinsel. Der Beitrag von Mitteleuropa, besonders der Vogesen, muss noch bestätigt werden. Ab dem 1. Jahrh. nach Chr. wurde die Westschweiz hauptschlich mit Blei aus den grossen Produktionszentren Norddeutschlands, vorwiegend der Eifel, versorgt. In dieser Periode setzt die Ausbeutung der Bleiminen des Wallis, besonders von Siviez, ein. Sie dienen der Deckung des örtlichen Bedarfs aber auch der Ausfuhr in das Gebiet des Genfersees und in einem bescheidenen Rahmen sogar darüber hinaus. Ab dem 4. Jahrhundert wurden vermehrt alte Objekte eingeschmolzen. Dieser Wechsel der Versorgungsquellen war vermutlich eine Folge der Wölkerwanderung in der zweiten Hälfte des 3. Jahrhunderts. Ab diesem Zeitpunkt war Helvetien der Zugang zu den Versorgungsquellen des Nordens, besonders des Rheinlandes, verwehrt. Der Abbau von Silber ist ab dem Ende des La Tène nachgewiesen, nur wenig nach dem Auftreten dieses Metalls im Wallis. Über die Römerzeit können wegen dem Fehlen entsprechender Proben keine Aussagen gemacht werden. Eine erneute Abbauperiode ist ab dem 5. Jahrhundert nachgewiesen. Die Produktion der örtlichen Minen erreicht aber erst im Mittelalter eine gewisse Bedeutung mit der Prägung von Mnzen durch die Karolinger und die Walliser Bischöfe. Die Herkunft des Silbers ist abhängig von dessen Verwendung. Mit wenigen Ausnahmen in der Zeit des La Tène und der späteren Römerzeit wurde für Kunst- und Kult- Gegenstände rezykliertes Silber verwendet, für Münzprägungen neues Silber aus den örtlichen Minen. Von Einfluss auf die Herkunft war auch der Produktionsstandort: Die Objekte aus dem Wallis unterscheiden sich deutlich von jenen des Mittellandes.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Distribution of events of positive selection and population differentiation in a metabolic pathway: the case of asparagine N-glycosylation

Asparagine N-Glycosylation is one of the most important forms of protein post-translational modification in eukaryotes. This metabolic pathway can be subdivided into two parts: an upstream sub-pathway required for achieving proper folding for most of the proteins synthesized in the secretory pathway, and a downstream sub-pathway required to give variability to trans-membrane proteins, and involved in adaptation to the environment and innate immunity. Here we analyze the nucleotide variability of the genes of this pathway in human populations, identifying which genes show greater population differentiation and which genes show signatures of recent positive selection. We also compare how these signals are distributed between the upstream and the downstream parts of the pathway, with the aim of exploring how forces of population differentiation and positive selection vary among genes involved in the same metabolic pathway but subject to different functional constraints. Our results show that genes in the downstream part of the pathway are more likely to show a signature of population differentiation, while events of positive selection are equally distributed among the two parts of the pathway. Moreover, events of positive selection are frequent on genes that are known to be at bifurcation points, and that are identified as being in key position by a network-level analysis such as MGAT3 and GCS1. These findings indicate that the upstream part of the Asparagine N-Glycosylation pathway has lower diversity among populations, while the downstream part is freer to tolerate diversity among populations. Moreover, the distribution of signatures of population differentiation and positive selection can change between parts of a pathway, especially between parts that are exposed to different functional constraints. Our results support the hypothesis that genes involved in constitutive processes can be expected to show lower population differentiation, while genes involved in traits related to the environment should show higher variability. Taken together, this work broadens our knowledge on how events of population differentiation and of positive selection are distributed among different parts of a metabolic pathway.

Cultural events and tourist development in Catalonia (Spain)

From the point of view of local development cultural tourism events represent an opportunity since they are distributed homogeneously by the Catalan territory and are experiencing a vertiginous growth as a way to differentiate the existing supply. In our study a sample of 264 telephone surveys made to organizers of events in Catalonia has been compiled, with the purpose of characterizing the existing supply, thematic typologies, management models, commercialization inputs and economic impact. The results allow us to characterize events from the point of view of their tourist potential. Finally some recommendations are set out to develop future tourism policies based on events according to product differentiation, seasonality, competitiveness and creativity.

Cultural events as tourism supply in coastal Catalan resorts

During the last three decades, the number of tourism events has been growing in Catalan coastal resorts because of the recover of Catalan cultural traditions, festivals and folklore, and also because of tourism growth. Catalan tourism resorts use events as catalysers for new supply and as a mean to differentiate and singularize themselves from their competitors. The tourism potential of cultural events is undeniable but there are some problems that prevent a more effective impact as economic and regional development agents. This paper reflects some discussions and conclusions obtained from the analysis of 264 valid responses of a survey made to different Catalan event organizers in 2008 and 2009. We describe and characterize cultural event supply in coastal resorts in order to study the events tourism importance, their capacity to generate and spread economic development, and their managerial model. The analysis is made in a geographical basis, comparing the results of the territorial organization of events of the city of Barcelona, coastal and inland municipalities. Finally some considerations about event regional tourism policy and tourism development are discussed.

Prevention and management of potential adverse events during transapical aortic valve replacement.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY: Transapical transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is a new minimally invasive technique with a known risk of unexpected intra-procedural complications. Nevertheless, the clinical results are good and the limited amount of procedural adverse events confirms the usefulness of a synergistic surgical/anesthesiological management in case of unexpected emergencies. METHODS: A review was made of the authors' four-year database and other available literature to identify major and minor intra-procedural complications occurring during transapical TAVR procedures. All implants were performed under general anesthesia with a balloon-expandable Edwards Sapien stent-valve, and followed international guidelines on indications and techniques. RESULTS: Procedural success rates ranged between 94% and 100%. Life-threatening apical bleeding occurred very rarely (0-5%), and its incidence decreased after the first series of implants. Stent-valve embolization was also rare, with a global incidence ranging from 0-2%, with evidence of improvement after the learning curve. Rates of valve malpositioning ranged from 0% to < 3%, whereas the risk of coronary obstruction ranged from 0% to 3.5%. Aortic root rupture and dissection were dramatic events reported in 0-2% of transapical cases. Stent-valve malfunction was rarely reported (1-2%), whereas the valve-in-valve bailout procedure for malpositioning, malfunctioning or severe paravalvular leak was reported in about 1.0-3.5% of cases. Sudden hemodynamic management and bailout procedures such as valve-in-valve rescue or cannulation for cardiopulmonary bypass were more effective when planned during the preoperative phase. CONCLUSION: Despite attempts to avoid pitfalls, complications during transapical aortic valve procedures still occur. Preoperative strategic planning, including hemodynamic status management, alternative cannulation sites and bailout procedures, are highly recommended, particularly during the learning curve of this technique.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Experimental and real-life case study validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers

Introduction: THC-COOH has been proposed as a criterion to help to distinguish between occasional from regular cannabis users. However, to date this indicator has not been adequately assessed under experimental and real-life conditions. Methods: We carried out a controlled administration study of smoked cannabis with a placebo. Twenty-three heavy smokers and 25 occasional smokers, between 18 and 30 years of age, participated in this study [Battistella G et al., PloS one. 2013;8(1):e52545]. We collected data from a second real case study performed with 146 traffic offenders' cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use were known. Cannabinoid levels were determined in whole blood using tandem mass spectrometry methods. Results: Significantly high differences in THC-COOH concentrations were found between the two groups when measured during the screening visit, prior to the smoking session, and throughout the day of the experiment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were determined and two threshold criteria were proposed in order to distinguish between these groups: a free THC-COOH concentration below 3 μg/L suggested an occasional consumption (≤ 1 joint/week) while a concentration higher than 40 μg/L corresponded to a heavy use (≥ 10 joints/month). These thresholds were successfully tested with the second real case study. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). These thresholds were also found to be consistent with previously published experimental data. Conclusion: We propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: If the whole blood THC-COOH concentration is higher than 40 μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THC-COOH concentration is lower than 3 μg/L. A THC-COOH level between these two thresholds can't be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.

Systematic surgical closure of patent foramen ovale in selected patients with cerebrovascular events due to paradoxical embolism. Early results of a preliminary study.

OBJECTIVE: To define therapeutic strategy for management of patients with ischemic stroke due to a high probability of paradoxical embolism through a Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO). METHODS: Since 1988 all consecutive patients with cerebrovascular events and PFO from the Stroke Registry of our population-based primary-care center are prospectively studied and followed. Since 1992, among 118 patients with cryptogenic embolic brain infarct or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and PFO, 32 consecutive patients younger than 60 years who presented at least two of the following criteria were admitted for surgery: history of Valsalva strain before stroke (11); multiple clinical events (13); multiple infarcts on brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) (15); atrial septal aneurysm (ASA) (16); large right-to-left shunt (> 50 microbubbles) (12). RESULTS: Operative time 135' +/- 33'. CPB time 34' +/- 14'. Aortic crossclamping time 16' +/- 6'. Post-operative bleeding 485 +/- 170 ml. No homologous blood transfusion required. No neurological, cardiac or renal complications. All patients were followed-up corresponding to a cumulative time of 601 patient-months. This revealed no recurrent vascular events nor silent new brain lesions on brain MRI. Systematic simultaneous contrast Trans Esophageal Echocardiography (TEE)-Trans Cranial Doppler showed a small residual interatrial shunt in two patients. CONCLUSION: Surgical closure of a patent foramen ovale can be accomplished with very low morbidity and reduce efficiently the risk of stroke recurrence. It seems to be the option of choice in selected patients with a higher (> 1.5%/year) risk of stroke recurrence.

Association of electrocardiogram abnormalities and incident heart failure events.

Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS: We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Significant decrease in in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events in Swiss STEMI patients between 2000 and December 2007.

To evaluate the in-hospital outcome of STEMI (ST elevation myocardial infarction) patients admitted to Swiss hospitals between 2000 and December 2007, and to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality and major cardiac events. Data from the Swiss national registry AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial Infarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland) were used. All patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2007 with STEMI or a new LBBB (left bundle branch block) were included in the registry. We studied 12 026 STEMI patients admitted to 68 hospitals. The mean age was 64 +/- 13 years and 73% of the patients were male. Incidence of in-hospital death was 7.6% in 2000 and 6% in 2007. Reinfarction fell from 3.7% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2007. Thrombolysis decreased from 40.2% in 2000 to 2% in 2007. Clinical predictors of mortality were: age >65 years, Killips class III or IV, diabetes, Q wave myocardial infarction (at presentation). Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) had lower mortality and reinfarction rates (3.9% versus 11.2% and 1.1% versus 3.1% respectively, p <0.001) over time, although their numbers increased from 43% in 2000 to 85% in 2007. Patients admitted to hospitals with PCI facilities had lower mortality than patients hospitalised in hospitals without it, but the demographic characteristics differ widely between the two groups. Both in-hospital mortality and reinfarction decreased significantly over the time, parallel to an increased number of PCI. PCI was also the strongest predictor of survival. In-hospital mortality and reinfarction rate have decreased significantly in Swiss STEMI patients in the last seven years, parallel to a significant increase in the number of percutaneous coronary interventions in addition to medical therapy. Outcome is not related to the site of admission but to PCI access.