Evidence-based design of timber facades’.

Conference paper on a CD-Rom

Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China’s fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (- 364±64 mm/yr, ~70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ~ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ~ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

NHS Wales user needs study including knowledgebase tools report. Report for Informing Healthcare Strategy implementation programme.

Thomas, R., Spink, S., Durbin, J. & Urquhart, C. (2005). NHS Wales user needs study including knowledgebase tools report. Report for Informing Healthcare Strategy implementation programme. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth. Sponsorship: Informing Healthcare, NHS Wales

Automatic point correspondence and registration based on linear structures

R. Marti, R. Zwiggelaar, C.M.E. Rubin, 'Automatic point correspondence and registration based on linear structures', International Journal of Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence 16 (3), 331-340 (2002)

Invertebrate diversity in Irish and British forests

Ireland and Britain were once covered in natural forest, but extensive anthropogenic deforestation reduced forest cover to less than 1% and 5 %, respectively, by the beginning of the 20th century. Large-scale afforestation has since increased the level of forest cover to 11% in Ireland and 12% in Britain, with the majority of planted forests comprising small monoculture plantations, many of which are of non - native conifer tree species. At present the forest cover of Ireland and Britain generally consists of small areas of remnant semi-natural woodland and pockets of these plantation forests within a predominantly agricultural landscape. Invertebrates comprise a large proportion of the biodiversity found within forested habitats. In particular, spiders and carabid beetles play an important role in food webs as both predators and prey and respond to small-scale changes in habitat structure, meaning they are particularly sensitive to forest management. Hoverflies play an important role in control and pollination and have been successfully used as indicators of habitat disturbance and quality. This research addressed a number of topics pertinent to the forest types present in the contemporary Irish and British landscapes and aimed to investigate the invertebrate diversity of these forests. Spiders and carabid beetles were sampled using pitfall trapping and hoverflies were sampled using Malaise net trapping. Topics included the impacts of afforestation, the importance of open space, the choice of tree species, and the use of indicators for biodiversity assessment, as well as rare native woodlands and the effect of grazing on invertebrate diversity. The results are discussed and evidence-based recommendations are made for forest policy and management to protect and enhance invertebrate biodiversity in order to promote sustainable forest management in Ireland and Britain.

Polymer and metallodielectric based photonic crystals

The bottom-up colloidal synthesis of photonic crystals has attracted interest over top-down approaches due to their relatively simplicity, the potential to produce large areas, and the low-costs with this approach in fabricating complex 3-dimensional structures. This thesis focuses on the bottom-up approach in the fabrication of polymeric colloidal photonic crystals and their subsequent modification. Poly(methyl methacrylate) sub-micron spheres were used to produce opals, inverse opals and 3D metallodielectric photonic crystal (MDPC) structures. The fabrication of MDPCs with Au nanoparticles attached to the PMMA spheres core–shell particles is described. Various alternative procedures for the fabrication of photonic crystals and MDPCs are described and preliminary results on the use of an Au-based MDPC for surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) are presented. These preliminary results suggest a threefold increase of the Raman signal with the MDPC as compared to PMMA photonic crystals. The fabrication of PMMA-gold and PMMA-nickel MDPC structures via an optimised electrodeposition process is described. This process results in the formation of a continuous dielectric-metal interface throughout a 3D inverted photonic crystal structure, which are shown to possess interesting optical properties. The fabrication of a robust 3D silica inverted structure with embedded Au nanoparticles is described by a novel co-crystallisation method which is capable of creating a SiO2/Au NP composite structure in a single step process. Although this work focuses on the creation of photonic crystals, this co-crystallisation approach has potential for the creation of other functional materials. A method for the fabrication of inverted opals containing silicon nanoparticles using aerosol assisted chemical vapour deposition is described. Silicon is a high dielectric material and nanoparticles of silicon can improve the band gap and absorption properties of the resulting structure, and therefore have the potential to be exploited in photovoltaics.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

Harm, hype and evidence: ELSI research and policy guidance.

There has been much investment in research on the ethical, legal and social issues (ELSI) associated with genetic and genomic research. This research should inform the development of the relevant policy. So far, much of the relevant policy - such as in the areas of patents, genetic testing and genetic discrimination - seems to be informed more by speculation of harm and anecdote than by available evidence. Although a quest for evidence cannot always be allowed to delay policy choice, it seems axiomatic to us that policy options are improved by the incorporation of evidence.

Differential T and B cell responses against Mycobacterium tuberculosis heparin-binding hemagglutinin adhesin in infected healthy individuals and patients with tuberculosis.

Because only 10% of individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis will eventually develop disease, antigens that are recognized differently by the immune systems of infected healthy and diseased subjects may constitute potential vaccine candidates. Here, the heparin-binding hemagglutinin adhesin (HBHA) is identified as such an antigen. Lymphocytes from 60% of healthy infected individuals (n=25) produced interferon (IFN)-gamma after stimulation with HBHA, compared with only 4% of patients with active tuberculosis (n=24). In the responders, both CD4(+) and CD8(+) cells secreted HBHA-specific IFN-gamma, and the antigen was presented by both major histocompatibility complex class I and II molecules. In contrast to the reduced ability of patients with tuberculosis to produce HBHA-specific IFN-gamma, most of them (82%) produced anti-HBHA antibodies, compared with 36% of the infected healthy subjects. These observations indicate that HBHA is recognized differently by the immune systems of patients with tuberculosis and infected healthy individuals and might provide a marker for protection against tuberculosis.