867 resultados para global warming potential


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In this study, ICESat altimetry data are used to provide precise lake elevations of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the period of 2003-2009. Among the 261 lakes examined ICESat data are available on 111 lakes: 74 lakes with ICESat footprints for 4-7 years and 37 lakes with footprints for 1 -3 years. This is the first time that precise lake elevation data are provided for the 111 lakes. Those ICESat elevation data can be used as baselines for future changes in lake levels as well as for changes during the 2003-2009 period. It is found that in the 74 lakes (56 salt lakes) examined, 62 (i.e. 84%) of all lakes and 50 (i.e. 89%) of the salt lakes show tendency of lake level increase. The mean lake water level increase rate is 0.23 m/year for the 56 salt lakes and 0.27 m/year for the 50 salt lakes of water level increase. The largest lake level increase rate (0.80 m/year) found in this study is the lake Cedo Caka. The 74 lakes are grouped into four subareas based on geographical locations and change tendencies in lake levels. Three of the four subareas show increased lake levels. The mean lake level change rates for subareas I, II, III, IV, and the entire TP are 0.12, 0.26, 0.19, -0.11, and 0.2 m/year, respectively. These recent increases in lake level, particularly for a high percentage of salt lakes, supports accelerated glacier melting due to global warming as the most likely cause.

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The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~ 40 million years ago [Ma]) is one of the most prominent transient global warming events in the Paleogene. Although the event is well documented in geochemical and isotopic proxy records at many locations, the marine biotic response to the MECO remains poorly constrained. We present new high-resolution, quantitative records of siliceous microplankton assemblages from the MECO interval of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1051 in the subtropical western North Atlantic Ocean, which are interpreted in the context of published foraminiferal and bulk carbonate stable isotope (d18O and d13C) records. High diatom, radiolarian and silicoflagellate accumulation rates between 40.5 and 40.0 Ma are interpreted to reflect an ~ 500 thousand year (kyr) interval of increased nutrient supply and resultant surface-water eutrophication that was associated with elevated sea-surface temperatures during the prolonged onset of the MECO. Relatively low pelagic siliceous phytoplankton sedimentation accompanied the peak MECO warming interval and the termination of the MECO during an ~ 70 kyr interval centered at ~ 40.0 Ma. Following the termination of the MECO, an ~ 200-kyr episode of increased siliceous plankton abundance indicates enhanced nutrient levels between ~ 39.9 and 39.7 Ma. Throughout the Site 1051 record, abundance and accumulation rate fluctuations in neritic diatom taxa are similar to the trends observed in pelagic taxa, implying either similar controls on diatom production in the neritic and pelagic zones of the western North Atlantic or fluctuations in sea level and/or shelf accommodation on the North American continental margin to the west of Site 1051. These results, combined with published records based on multiple proxies, indicate a geographically diverse pattern of surface ocean primary production changes across the MECO. Notably, however, increased biosiliceous accumulation is recorded at both ODP Sites 1051 and 748 (Southern Ocean) in response to MECO warming. This may suggest that increased biosiliceous sediment accumulation, if indeed a widespread phenomenon, resulted from higher continental silicate weathering rates and an increase in silicic acid supply to the oceans over several 100 kyr during the MECO.

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A distinctive low-carbonate interval interrupts the continuous limestone-marl alternation of the deep-marine Gorrondatxe section at the early Lutetian (middle Eocene) C21r/C21n Chron transition. The interval is characterized by increased abundance of turbidites and kaolinite, a 3 per mil decline in the bulk d13C record, a >1 per mil decline in benthic foraminiferal d13C followed by a gradual recovery, a distinct deterioration in foraminiferal preservation, high proportions of warm-water planktic foraminifera and opportunistic benthic foraminifera, and reduced trace fossil and benthic foraminiferal diversity, thus recording a significant environmental perturbation. The onset of the perturbation correlates with the C21r-H6 event recently defined in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which caused a 2°C warming of the seafloor and increased carbonate dissolution. The perturbation was likely caused by the input of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, thus presenting many of the hallmarks of Paleogene hyperthermal deposits. However, from the available data it is not possible to conclusively state that the event was associated with extreme global warming. Based on our analysis, the perturbation lasted 226 kyr, from 47.44 to 47.214 Ma, and although this duration suggests that the triggering mechanism may have been similar to that of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the magnitude of the carbon input and the subsequent environmental perturbation during the early Lutetian event were not as severe as in the PETM.

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Size measurements of the calcareous nannofossil taxon Discoaster multiradiatus were carried out across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in Ocean Drilling Program Holes 690B (Maud Rise, Weddell Sea) and 1209B (Shatsky Rise, Pacific Ocean). Morphometric investigations show that D. multiradiatus specimens are generally larger at ODP Site 1209 than at ODP Site 690. A limited increase in size of D. multiradiatus is recorded at ODP Site 1209, whereas significant enlargements characterize ODP Site 690. Preservation is comparable at both sites: nannofossils are moderately preserved with some evidence of etching/overgrowth in the PETM interval. Yet, D. multiradiatus variations do not correlate with preservation state and morphometric data most likely represent primary signals rather than diagenetic artifacts. There is a direct relationship between D. multiradiatus size and paleotemperatures: largest specimens are coeval with global warming associated with the PETM, inferred to result from excess atmospheric CO2 due to (partial) oxidation of massive quantities of methane. Size increases and largest specimens of D. multiradiatus occur at different stratigraphic levels within PETM at ODP Sites 690 and 1209. A marked shift in diameter size was observed at the onset and peak of the Carbon Isotopic Excursion (CIE) at ODP Site 690, but only at the end of CIE and initial recovery interval at ODP Site 1209. This diachroneity is puzzling, but indeed correlates well with reconstructed changes in surface and thermocline water masses temperature and salinity in the PETM interval at low and high latitudes. The presumed high concentrations of carbon dioxide seem to have not influenced the morphometry of D. multiradiatus. The major size increase of D. multiradiatus in the CIE of ODP Site 690 could represent the migration of larger-sized allochtonus specimens that moved from peri-equatorial/subtropical areas to higher latitudes during the warmest interval of the PETM, although no direct evidence of distinct populations/subpopulations has been obtained from the frequency diagrams. As a result, we infer that D. multiradiatus is a proxy of water masses stratification and might be used for deriving temperature-salinity-nutrient conditions in the mixed layer and thermocline and their dynamics.

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Differences in regional responses to climate fluctuations are well documented on short time scales (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), but with the exception of latitudinal temperature gradients, regional patterns are seldom considered in discussions of ancient greenhouse climates. Contrary to the expectation of global warming or global cooling implicit in most treatments of climate evolution over millions of years, this paper shows that the North Atlantic warmed by as much as 6°C (1.5% decrease in d18O values of planktic foraminifera) during the Maastrichtian global cooling interval. We suggest that warming was the result of the importation of heat from the South Atlantic. Decreasing North Atlantic d18O values are also associated with increasing gradients in planktic d13C values, suggesting increasing surface-water stratification and a correlated strengthening of the North Atlantic Polar Front. If correct, this conclusion predicts arctic cooling during the late Maastrichtian. Beyond implications for the Maastrichtian, these data demonstrate that climate does not behave as if there is a simple global thermostat, even on geologic time scales.

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A mesocosm experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of reduced pH and elevated temperature on an intact marine invertebrate community. Standardised faunal communities, collected from the extreme low intertidal zone using artificial substrate units, were exposed to one of eight nominal treatments (four pH levels: 8.0, 7.7, 7.3 and 6.7, crossed with two temperature levels: 12 and 16°C). After 60 days exposure communities showed significant changes in structure and lower diversity in response to reduced pH. The response to temperature was more complex. At higher pH levels (8.0 and 7.7) elevated temperature treatments contained higher species abundances and diversity than the lower temperature treatments. In contrast, at lower pH levels (7.3 and 6.7), elevated temperature treatments had lower species abundances and diversity than lower temperature treatments. The species losses responsible for these changes in community structure and diversity were not randomly distributed across the different phyla examined. Molluscs showed the greatest reduction in abundance and diversity in response to low pH and elevated temperature, whilst annelid abundance and diversity was mostly unaffected by low pH and was higher at the elevated temperature. The arthropod response was between these two extremes with moderately reduced abundance and diversity at low pH and elevated temperature. Nematode abundance increased in response to low pH and elevated temperature, probably due to the reduction of ecological constraints, such as predation and competition, caused by a decrease in macrofaunal abundance. This community-based mesocosm study supports previous suggestions, based on observations of direct physiological impacts, that ocean acidification induced changes in marine biodiversity will be driven by differential vulnerability within and between different taxonomical groups. This study also illustrates the importance of considering indirect effects that occur within multispecies assemblages when attempting to predict the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on marine communities.

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In the coming decades, artificial defence structures will increase in importance worldwide for the protection of coasts against the impacts of global warming. However, the ecological effects of such structures on the natural surroundings remain unclear. We investigated the impact of experimentally introduced tetrapod fields on the demersal fish community in a hard-bottom area in the southern North Sea. The results indicated a significant decrease in fish abundance in the surrounding area caused by migration effects towards the artificial structures. Diversity (HB) and evenness (E) values exhibited greater variation after the introduction of the tetrapods. Additionally, a distinct increase in young-of-the-year (YOY) fish was observed near the structures within the second year after introduction. We suggest that the availability of adequate refuges in combination with additional food resources provided by the artificial structures has a highly species-specific attraction effect. However, these findings also demonstrate that our knowledge regarding the impact of artificial structures on temperate fish communities is still too limited to truly understand the ecological processes that are initiated by the introduction of artificial structures. Long-term investigations and additional experimental in situ work worldwide will be indispensable for a full understanding of the mechanisms by which coastal defence structures interact with the coastal environment.

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The impact of global climate change on coral reefs is expected to be most profound at the sea surface, where fertilization and embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals takes place. We examined the effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels on the in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals using a single male:female cross of three different species from mid- and high-latitude locations: Lyudao, Taiwan (22° N) and Kochi, Japan (32° N). Eggs were fertilized under ambient conditions (27 °C and 500 µatm CO2) and under conditions predicted for 2100 (IPCC worst case scenario, 31 °C and 1000 µatm CO2). Fertilization success, abnormal development and early developmental success were determined for each sample. Increased temperature had a more profound influence than elevated CO2. In most cases, near-future warming caused a significant drop in early developmental success as a result of decreased fertilization success and/or increased abnormal development. The embryonic development of the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the high-latitude location was more sensitive to the increased temperature (+4 °C) than the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the mid-latitude location. The response to the elevated CO2 level was small and highly variable, ranging from positive to negative responses. These results suggest that global warming is a more significant and universal stressor than ocean acidification on the early embryonic development of corals from mid- and high-latitude locations.

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The middle Paleocene through early Eocene long-term gradual warming was superimposed by several transient warming events, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2). Both events show evidence for extreme global warming associated with a major injection of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, but the mechanisms of carbon injection and many aspects of the environmental response are still poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed the concentration and stable carbon isotopic (d13C) composition of several sulfur-bound biomarkers derived from marine photoautotrophs, deposited in the Arctic Ocean at ~85°N, during ETM2. The presence of sulfur-bound biomarkers across this event points toward high primary productivity and anoxic bottom water conditions. The previously reported presence of isorenieratene derivatives indicates euxinic conditions in the photic zone, likely caused by a combination of enhanced primary productivity and salinity stratification. The negative carbon isotope excursion measured at the onset of ETM2 for several biomarkers, ranges between 3 per mil and 4.5 per mil, much larger than the ~1.4 per mil recorded in marine carbonates elsewhere, suggesting substantial enhanced isotopic fractionation by the primary producers likely due to a significant rise in pCO2. In the absence of biogenic carbonates in the ETM2 section of our core we use coeval planktonic d13C from elsewhere to estimate surface water d13C in the Arctic Ocean and then apply the relation between isotopic fractionation and pCO2, originally calibrated for haptophyte alkenones, to three selected organic biomarkers (i.e., S-bound phytane, C35 hopane, and a C25 highly branched isoprenoid). This yields pCO2 values potentially in the range of four times preindustrial levels. However, these estimates are uncertain because of a lack of knowledge on the importance of pCO2 on photosynthetic isotopic fractionation.

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Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32- to 34-year period, in three 50 x 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009-2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (>=3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.

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A growing body of geologic evidence suggests that emplacement of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) played a major role in global warming during the early Paleogene as well as in the transient Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) event. A ~5 million year record of major and trace element abundances spanning 56 to 51 Ma at Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 401 and 549 confirms that the majority of NAIP volcanism occurred as subaerial flows. Thus the trace element records provide constraints on the nature and scope of the environmental impact of the NAIP during the late Paleocene-early Eocene interval. Subaerial volcanism would have injected mantle CO2 directly into the atmosphere, resulting in a more immediate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas abundances than CO2 input through submarine volcanism. The lack of significant hydrothermalism contradicts recently proposed mechanisms for thermally destabilizing methane hydrate reservoirs during the PETM. Any connection between NAIP volcanism and PETM warming had to occur through the atmosphere.

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Near-shore waters along the northwest African margin are characterized by coastal upwelling and represent one of the world's major upwelling regions. Sea surface temperature (SST) records from Moroccan sediment cores, extending back 2500 years, reveal anomalous and unprecedented cooling during the 20th century, which is consistent with increased upwelling. Upwelling-driven SSTs also vary out of phase with millennial-scale changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (NHTAs) and show relatively warm conditions during the Little Ice Age and relatively cool conditions during the Medieval Warm Period. Together, these results suggest that coastal upwelling varies with NHTAs and that upwelling off northwest Africa may continue to intensify as global warming and atmospheric CO2 levels increase.

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Instrumental monitoring of the climate at high northern latitudes has documented the ongoing warming of the last few decades. Climate modelling has also demonstrated that the global warming signal will be amplified in the polar region. Such temperature increases would have important implications on the ecosystem and biota of the Barents Sea. This study therefore aims to reconstruct the climatic changes of the Barents Sea based on benthic foraminifera over approximately the last 1400 years at the decadal to sub-decadal scale. Oxygen and carbon isotope analysis and benthic foraminiferal species counts indicate an overall warming trend of approximately 2.6°C through the 1400-year record. In addition, the well-documented cooling period equating to the 'Little Ice Age' is evident between c. 1650 and 1850. Most notably, a series of highly fluctuating temperatures are observed over the last century. An increase of 1.5°C is shown across this period. Thus for the first time we are able to demonstrate that the recent Arctic warming is also reflected in the oceanic micro-fauna.

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The Paleocene - Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is one of the best known examples of a transient climate perturbation, associated with a brief, but intense, interval of global warming and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle from injection of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. One key to quantifying the mass of carbon released, identifying the source(s), and understanding the ultimate fate of this carbon is to develop high-resolution age models. Two independent strategies have been employed, cycle stratigraphy and analysis of extraterrestrial Helium (HeET), both of which were first tested on Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 690. Both methods are in agreement for the onset of the PETM and initial recovery, or the clay layer ("main body"), but seem to differ in the final recovery phase of the event above the clay layer, where the carbonate contents rise and carbon isotope values return toward background values. Here we present a state-of-the-art age model for the PETM derived from a new orbital chronology developed with cycle stratigraphic records from sites drilled during ODP Leg 208 (Walvis Ridge, Southeastern Atlantic) integrated with published records from Site 690 (Weddell Sea, Southern Ocean, ODP Leg 113). During Leg 208, five Paleocene - Eocene (P-E) boundary sections (Sites 1262 to 1267) were recovered in multiple holes over a depth transect of more than 2200 m at the Walvis Ridge yielding the first stratigraphically complete P-E deep-sea sequence with moderate to relatively high sedimentation rates (1 to 3 cm/kyr). A detailed chronology was developed with non-destructive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records on the scale of precession cycles, with a total duration of the PETM now estimated to be ~ 170 kyr. The revised cycle stratigraphic record confirms original estimates for the duration of the onset and initial recovery, but suggests a new duration for the final recovery that is intermediate to the previous estimates by cycle stratigraphy and HeET.