Aplicación de algunos modelos de series temporales al mercado de la electricidad en España

Hoy día, todo el mundo tiene un ojo puesto en el Mercado Eléctrico en nuestro país. No existe duda alguna sobre la importancia que tiene el comportamiento de la demanda eléctrica. Una de las peculiaridades de la electricidad que producimos, es que hoy por hoy, no existen aún métodos lo suficientemente efectivos para almacenarla, al menos en grandes cantidades. Por consiguiente, la cantidad demandada y la ofertada/producida deben casar de manera casi perfecta. Debido a estas razones, es bastante interesante tratar de predecir el comportamiento futuro de la demanda, estudiando una posible tendencia y/o estacionalidad. Profundizando más en los datos históricos de las demandas; es relativamente sencillo descubrir la gran influencia que la temperatura ambiente, laboralidad o la actividad económica tienen sobre la respuesta de la demanda. Una vez teniendo todo esto claro, podemos decidir cuál es el mejor método para aplicarlo en este tipo de series temporales. Para este fin, los métodos de análisis más comunes han sido presentados y explicados, poniendo de relieve sus principales características, así como sus aplicaciones. Los métodos en los que se ha centrado este proyecto son en los modelos de alisado y medias móviles. Por último, se ha buscado una relación entre la demanda eléctrica peninsular y el precio final que pagamos por la luz.

Modelos para dispersão Raman em polímeros conjugados

Raman dispersion refers to the dependence of the position of Raman bands on the energy of the exciting radiation. In this work, the three main models currently used to explain this phenomenon (Conjugated Length Model, Amplitude Mode Model and Effective Conjugation Coordinate Model) are discussed. Raman dispersion is a consequence of pi electron delocalization, but each model describes in a different way how pi electron delocalization affects the position of Raman bands. Here the features, qualities and problems of the three models are highlighted.

Comparación de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de coeficientes fijos frente a variables en los modelos econométricos regionales: un análisis para Cataluña

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un creciente interés en nuestro país en relación a las economías regionales dada la necesidad de los gobiernos regionales de obtener información sobre sus economías para así llevar a cabo actuaciones de política económica más efectivas y eficientes. En este marco, los modelos econométricos constituyen una herramienta de utilidad puesto que ofrecen información sobre las relaciones estructurales que se dan en una economía y permiten predecir su evolución. Sin embargo, la utilización de dichos modelos con finalidad predictiva se enfrenta al inconveniente de la elevada inestabilidad a corto plazo que se produce en las relaciones entre variables económicas a nivel regional. Por este motivo, en el presente trabajo se propone la utilización de un modelo de coeficientes variables para recoger dicha inestabilidad y mejorar las predicciones sobre la evolución de las variables del bloque de producción de la economía catalana. Para contrastar la mejora obtenida a partir de la aplicación de dicho modelo, se compara su capacidad predictiva con la de un modelo de coeficientes fijos. Los resultados muestran un mejor comportamiento del modelo de coeficientes variables frente al modelo de coeficientes fijos.

Geração do conhecimento através da especificação de produtos químicos

Technological innovation connects competitiveness and knowledge. In Brazil, knowledge is mainly concentrated in the universities which undertake R&D. This article aims to show the importance of Brazilian university extension activities, which transfer knowledge to society, contributing, in the case of the chemical sector, to a reduction in the country's total trade deficit of around US$8.5 billion, which is result of the importation of innumerable products. On the other hand, developed countries are resorting to technical barriers, which impose documentation and regulations based on testing products for conformity with standards. This demands a technical and scientific infrastructure, concentrated in the universities.

Estresse oxidativo: relação entre geração de espécies reativas e defesa do organismo

This work describes the mechanism of action of some reactive oxygen species (ROS) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) in the oxidative stress of the human body, and their consequences on damage to DNA, RNA, proteins and lipids. It also illustrates the defense system of our organism against these ROS and RNS species. The action of nonenzymatic protection systems is reported, with emphasis on micromolecules like Q10 coenzyme, vitamin C, alpha-tocopherol, carotenoids and flavonoids. The importance of flavonoids is also emphasized, and their body protection mechanism is detailed.

Modelos contínuos do solvente: fundamentos

Continuum solvation models are nowadays widely used in the modeling of solvent effects and the range of applications goes from the calculation of partition coefficients to chemical reactions in solution. The present work presents a detailed explanation of the physical foundations of continuum models. We discuss the polarization of a dielectric and its representation through the volume and surface polarization charges. The Poisson equation for a dielectric was obtained and we have also derived and discuss the apparent surface charge method and its application for free energy of solvation calculations.

Cómo mejorar la efectividad en un jugador de tenis: Modelos de regresión log-lineales

La efectividad en el deporte hace referencia al impacto alcanzado por una acción llevada a cabo en condiciones habituales, estando presente en la ejecución de cualquier actividad física, referida a la capacidad para producir el efecto deseado, y está relacionada con la e$cacia, entendida como el efecto de una acción llevada a cabo en las mejores condiciones posibles, y que tiene como objetivo, lograr la meta, o conseguir el triunfo. El objetivo de este trabajo consistió en identificar la relación entre la zona y el tipo de golpe, desde la cual el tenista presenta mayor y menor efectividad en el juego. Para ello se observó a un tenista durante 12 entrenamientos con un rival de nivel equivalente, según la ATP, durante la temporada 2012-2013, registrando su situación en la cancha y el tipo de golpe de todas las devoluciones con éxito, entendido como obtención del punto o recuperación del saque. Se crearon tres criterios categóricos que constituyen un instrumento de observación para registrar el juego del tenista en la zona horizontal, y la zona vertical de la pista, además del tipo de golpe que realiza en términos de drive, revés, smash y dejada. Utilizando la técnica de regresión log-lineal, se obtuvieron resultados que indican que el jugador presenta una menor efectividad en los golpes realizados desde el lado izquierdo, y muestra una mayor efectividad en el drive y revés ejecutados desde media pista o fondo del lado derecho. La interpretación de los resultados aporta información sobre las localizaciones en la pista y los golpes, relacionados con su mayor y menor efectividad.

LS-SVM: uma nova ferramenta quimiométrica para regressão multivariada. Comparação de modelos de regressão LS-SVM e PLS na quantificação de adulterantes em leite em pó empregando NIR

Least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) were used as an alternative multivariate calibration method for the simultaneous quantification of some common adulterants found in powdered milk samples, using near-infrared spectroscopy. Excellent models were built using LS-SVM for determining R², RMSECV and RMSEP values. LS-SVMs show superior performance for quantifying starch, whey and sucrose in powdered milk samples in relation to PLSR. This study shows that it is possible to determine precisely the amount of one and two common adulterants simultaneously in powdered milk samples using LS-SVM and NIR spectra.

Produção biotecnológica de poli-hidroxialcanoatos para a geração de polímeros biodegradáveis no Brasil

In recent years, several studies have been developed in Brazil to produce biodegradable materials. A particular family of bacterial polymers, the polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), has received special attention. PHAs are thermoplastic, biodegradable, biocompatible, are synthesised from renewable resources and can substitute petrochemical plastics in some applications. Different aspects have been focused to increase productivity and to reduce the cost of PHA production: bacterial improvement, use of industrial by-products as raw material, bioreactor design, process operation strategies, downstream process, mathematical modelling, polymer characterisation, application and biodegradability of blends. A production process was transferred to industry and studies to produce new PHA by controlling monomer composition are in progress. All these aspects are presented in this review.

Aplicação de Zr/Ti-PILC no processo de adsorção de Cu(II), Co(II) e Ni(II) utilizando modelos físico-químicos de adsorção e termodinâmica do processo

The aim of this investigation is to study how Zr/Ti-PILC adsorbs metals. The physico-chemical proprieties of Zr/Ti-PILC have been optimized with pillarization processes and Cu(II), Ni(II) and Co(II) adsorption from aqueous solution has been carried out, with maximum adsorption values of 8.85, 8.30 and 7.78 x10-1 mmol g-1, respectively. The Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin adsorption isotherm models have been applied to fit the experimental data with a linear regression process. The energetic effect caused by metal interaction was determined through calorimetric titration at the solid-liquid interface and gave a net thermal effect that enabled the calculation of the exothermic values and the equilibrium constant.

A formação em Química discutida com base nos modelos proposto por estudantes de pós-graduação para o fenômeno de dissolução

Mental models play an important role in the evolution of an individual's so-called knowledge. Using such representations, students can explain, foresee, and attribute causality to observed phenomena. In the case of Chemistry, the ability to work mentally with models assumes great importance, due to the microscopic component that is characteristic of this science. With the objective of exploring students' ability to work with models, 27 students of the Chemistry Institute of UNESP were asked to describe the mechanisms of dissolution, in water, of NaCl, HCl and HCN, as well as the partial dissolution of I2. Due to difficulties of access to complex descriptors of these processes, each student was asked to explain the phenomena using words and drawings. The results of these investigations were analyzed, and enabled construction of a framework representing the Chemistry students' theoretical training, especially with respect to their most important transferred skill: an ability to model the physical world.

Uso da cinza da casca do arroz (CCA) obtida da geração de energia térmica como adsorvente de Zn(II) em soluções aquosas

The removal study was conducted using 1.00 g of the rice husk ash (RHA) and 20.0 mL solution with concentrations in the range of 10-1000 mg/L of Zn(II). The influence of contact time, initial metal concentration, agitation and pH of the removal process was investigated. Superior removals to 95% were obtained at the end of 24 h of contact. The agitation increased in 20% the removal of Zn(II), being needed only 5 min to reach the equilibrium. The adsorption process was studied by the models of isotherms of Langmuir, Freundlich and BET, obtaining results of R L and 1/n for a process favorable of adsorption. BET isotherm best represents the equilibrium adsorption. The results showed that the RHA has the largest capacity and affinity for the removal of Zn(II).

Modelos da Química Quântica no espaço de momento: diferentes representações de um mesmo sistema

The conventional approach to simple quantum chemistry models is contrasted with that known as momentum representation, where the wavefunctions are momentum dependent. Since the physical interactions are the same, state energies should not change, and whence the energy differences correlating with the real world as spectral lines or bands. We emphasize that one representation is not more fundamental than the other, and the choice is a matter of mathematical convenience. As spatial localization is rooted in our brains, to think in terms of the momentum present us a great mental challenge that can lead to complementary perspectives of a model.

Validação de metodologia analítica para determinação de mercúrio total em amostras de urina por espectrometria de absorção atômica com geração de vapor frio (CV-AAS): estudo de caso

Mercury is a toxic metal used in a variety of substances over the course history. One of its more dubious uses is in dental amalgam restorations. It is possible to measure very small concentrations of this metal in the urine of exposed subjects by the cold vapor atomic absorption technique. The present work features the validation as an essential tool to confirm the suitability of the analytical method chosen to accomplish such determination. An initial analysis will be carried out in order to evaluate the environmental and occupational levels of exposure to mercury in 39 members of the auxiliary dental staff at public consulting rooms in the city of Araguaína (TO).

A formação inicial em química baseada em conceitos representados por meio de modelos mentais

The current legislation determines that the chemist must have a solid comprehension about chemical concepts. Literature presents the concept of mental model, which is determinant to the learning of phenomena and concepts. This paper presents some mental models that students of the Chemistry course at UFSCar have about chemical concepts. A lot of incoherence was observed in student's mental models, which is an evidence that there are problems in the learning of chemistry education.