Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

Taxonomic free sorting: a successful method with older consumers and a novel approach to preference mapping

Taxonomic free sorting (TFS) is a fast, reliable and new technique in sensory science. The method extends the typical free sorting task where stimuli are grouped according to similarities, by asking respondents to combine their groups two at a time to produce a hierarchy. Previously, TFS has been used for the visual assessment of packaging whereas this study extends the range of potential uses of the technique to incorporate full sensory analysis by the target consumer, which, when combined with hedonic liking scores, was used to generate a novel preference map. Furthermore, to fully evaluate the efficacy of using the sorting method, the technique was evaluated with a healthy older adult consumer group. Participants sorted eight products into groups and described their reason at each stage as they combined those groups, producing a consumer-specific vocabulary. This vocabulary was combined with hedonic data from a separate group of older adults, to give the external preference map. Taxonomic sorting is a simple, fast and effective method for use with older adults, and its combination with liking data can yield a preference map constructed entirely from target consumer data.

A real-time measurement system for long-life flood monitoring and warning applications

A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data in many sparse locations during flood events.

Reform of the planning system in Northern Ireland: your chance to influence change

Consultation on the Reform of the Planning System in Northern Ireland commenced on 6 July 2009 with the publication of the long awaited proposals paper: 'Reform of the Planning System in Northern Ireland: Your chance to influence change'. A 12 week consultation period followed during which time a series of consultation roadshow events were undertaken. This report is an account of that strand of the reform consultation and the discussions that took place at the roadshows during a three week period in September 2009. The roadshow events formed the central part in a process of encouraging engagement and response to the Reform Proposals before the closing date of 2 October 2009. They were organised and facilitated by a team of event managers and independent planners who, together with key Planning Service personnel, attended a mixture of day and evening events in each of the new eleven council areas to hear the views and opinions of those who came along. Aside from being publicly advertised, over 1,500 invitations (written and e-invites) were issued to a wide range of sectors, including the business community,environmentalists, councils, community and voluntary groups and other organisations, and 1,000 fliers were issued to libraries, leisure centres, council offices and civic centres. In total almost 500 people took up the invitation and came along to one or more of the events.

Developing green supply chain management taxonomy-based decision support system

The aim of this paper is to develop a comprehensive taxonomy of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices and develop a structural equation modelling-driven decision support system following GSCM taxonomy for managers to provide better understanding of the complex relationship between the external and internal factors and GSCM operational practices. Typology and/or taxonomy play a key role in the development of social science theories. The current taxonomies focus on a single or limited component of the supply chain. Furthermore, they have not been tested using different sample compositions and contexts, yet replication is a prerequisite for developing robust concepts and theories. In this paper, we empirically replicate one such taxonomy extending the original study by (a) developing broad (containing the key components of supply chain) taxonomy; (b) broadening the sample by including a wider range of sectors and organisational size; and (c) broadening the geographic scope of the previous studies. Moreover, we include both objective measures and subjective attitudinal measurements. We use a robust two-stage cluster analysis to develop our GSCM taxonomy. The main finding validates the taxonomy previously proposed and identifies size, attitude and level of environmental risk and impact as key mediators between internal drivers, external drivers and GSCM operational practices.

Fractional order and non-linear system identification algorithms for biomedical applications

We discuss the modelling of dielectric responses of amorphous biological samples. Such samples are commonly encountered in impedance spectroscopy studies as well as in UV, IR, optical and THz transient spectroscopy experiments and in pump-probe studies. In many occasions, the samples may display quenched absorption bands. A systems identification framework may be developed to provide parsimonious representations of such responses. To achieve this, it is appropriate to augment the standard models found in the identification literature to incorporate fractional order dynamics. Extensions of models using the forward shift operator, state space models as well as their non-linear Hammerstein-Wiener counterpart models are highlighted. We also discuss the need to extend the theory of electromagnetically excited networks which can account for fractional order behaviour in the non-linear regime by incorporating nonlinear elements to account for the observed non-linearities. The proposed approach leads to the development of a range of new chemometrics tools for biomedical data analysis and classification.

Rerum cognoscere causas: part I - How do the ideas of system dynamics relate to traditional social theories and the voluntarism/determinism debate?

This is the first half of a two-part paper which deals with the social theoretic assumptions underlying system dynamics. The motivation is that clarification in this area can help mainstream social scientists to understand how our field relates to their literature, methods and concerns. Part I has two main sections. The aim of the first is to answer the question: How do the ideas of system dynamics relate to traditional social theories? The theoretic assumptions of the field are seldom explicit but rather are implicit in its practice. The range of system dynamics practice is therefore considered and related to a framework - widely used in both operational research (OR) and systems science - that organises the assumptions behind traditional social theoretic paradigms. Distinct and surprisingly varied groupings of practice are identified, making it difficult to place system dynamics in any one paradigm with any certainty. The difficulties of establishing a social theoretic home for system dynamics are exemplified in the second main section. This is done by considering the question: Is system dynamics deterministic? An analysis shows that attempts to relate system dynamics to strict notions of voluntarism or determinism quickly indicate that the field does not fit with either pole of this dichotomous, and strictly paradigmatic, view. Part I therefore concludes that definitively placing system dynamics with respect to traditional social theories is highly problematic. The scene is therefore set for Part II of the paper, which proposes an innovative and potentially fruitful resolution to this problem.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Large-scale fields and flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Advances in our understanding of the large-scale electric and magnetic fields in the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system are reviewed. The literature appearing in the period January 1991–June 1993 is sorted into 8 general areas of study. The phenomenon of substorms receives the most attention in this literature, with the location of onset being the single most discussed issue. However, if the magnetic topology in substorm phases was widely debated, less attention was paid to the relationship of convection to the substorm cycle. A significantly new consensus view of substorm expansion and recovery phases emerged, which was termed the ‘Kiruna Conjecture’ after the conference at which it gained widespread acceptance. The second largest area of interest was dayside transient events, both near the magnetopause and the ionosphere. It became apparent that these phenomena include at least two classes of events, probably due to transient reconnection bursts and sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes. The contribution of both types of event to convection is controversial. The realisation that induction effects decouple electric fields in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, on time scales shorter than several substorm cycles, calls for broadening of the range of measurement techniques in both the ionosphere and at the magnetopause. Several new techniques were introduced including ionospheric observations which yield reconnection rate as a function of time. The magnetospheric and ionospheric behaviour due to various quasi-steady interplanetary conditions was studied using magnetic cloud events. For northward IMF conditions, reverse convection in the polar cap was found to be predominantly a summer hemisphere phenomenon and even for extremely rare prolonged southward IMF conditions, the magnetosphere was observed to oscillate through various substorm cycles rather than forming a steady-state convection bay.

Excitation and decay of solar-wind driven flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Basic concepts of the form of high-latitude ionospheric flows and their excitation and decay are discussed in the light of recent high time-resolution measurements made by ground-based radars. It is first pointed out that it is in principle impossible to adequately parameterize these flows by any single quantity derived from concurrent interplanetary conditions. Rather, even at its simplest, the flow must be considered to consist of two basic time-dependent components. The first is the flow driven by magnetopause coupling processes alone, principally by dayside reconnection. These flows may indeed be reasonably parameterized in terms of concurrent near-Earth interplanetary conditions, principally by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector. The second is the flow driven by tail reconnection alone. As a first approximation these flows may also be parameterized in terms of interplanetary conditions, principally the north-south component of the IMF, but with a delay in the flow response of around 30-60 min relative to the IMF. A delay in the tail response of this order must be present due to the finite speed of information propagation in the system, and we show how "growth" and "decay" of the field and flow configuration then follow as natural consequences. To discuss the excitation and decay of the two reconnection-driven components of the flow we introduce that concept of a flow-free equilibrium configuration for a magnetosphere which contains a given (arbitrary) amount of open flux. Reconnection events act either to create or destroy open flux, thus causing departures of the system from the equilibrium configuration. Flow is then excited which moves the system back towards equilibrium with the changed amount of open flux. We estimate that the overall time scale associated with the excitation and decay of the flow is about 15 min. The response of the system to both impulsive (flux transfer event) and continuous reconnection is discussed in these terms.

Obstacle avoidance routing scheme through optimal sink movement for home monitoring and mobile robotic consumer devices

In recent years, ZigBee has been proven to be an excellent solution to create scalable and flexible home automation networks. In a home automation network, consumer devices typically collect data from a home monitoring environment and then transmit the data to an end user through multi-hop communication without the need for any human intervention. However, due to the presence of typical obstacles in a home environment, error-free reception may not be possible, particularly for power constrained devices. A mobile sink based data transmission scheme can be one solution but obstacles create significant complexities for the sink movement path determination process. Therefore, an obstacle avoidance data routing scheme is of vital importance to the design of an efficient home automation system. This paper presents a mobile sink based obstacle avoidance routing scheme for a home monitoring system. The mobile sink collects data by traversing through the obstacle avoidance path. Through ZigBee based hardware implementation and verification, the proposed scheme successfully transmits data through the obstacle avoidance path to improve network performance in terms of life span, energy consumption and reliability. The application of this work can be applied to a wide range of intelligent pervasive consumer products and services including robotic vacuum cleaners and personal security robots1.

Sensory profiles and consumer acceptability of a range of sugar-reduced products on the UK market

Current UK intake of non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) is above recommendations. Reducing the sugar content of processed high sugar foods through reformulation is one option for reducing consumption of NMES at a population level. However, reformulation can alter the sensory attributes of food products and influence consumer liking. This study evaluated consumer acceptance of a selection of products that are commercially-available in the UK; these included regular and sugar-reduced baked beans, strawberry jam, milk chocolate, cola and cranberry & raspberry juice. Sweeteners were present in the reformulated chocolate (maltitol), cola (aspartame and acesulfame-K) and juice (sucralose) samples. Healthy, non-smoking consumers (n = 116; 55 men, 61 women, age: 33 ± 9 years; BMI: 25.7 ± 4.6 kg/m2) rated the products for overall liking and on liking of appearance, flavor and texture using a nine-point hedonic scale. There were significant differences between standard and reduced sugar products in consumers’ overall liking and on liking of each modality (appearance, flavor and texture; all P < 0.0001). For overall liking, only the regular beans and cola were significantly more liked than their reformulated counterparts (P < 0.0001). Cluster analysis identified three consumer clusters that were representative of different patterns of consumer liking. For the largest cluster (cluster 3: 45%), there was a significant difference in mean liking scores across all products, except jam. Differences in liking were predominantly driven by sweet taste in 2 out of 3 clusters. The current research has demonstrated that a high proportion of consumers prefer conventional products over sugar-reduced products across a wide range of product types (45%) or across selected products (27%), when tasted unbranded, and so there is room for further optimization of commercial reduced sugar products that were evaluated in the current study. Future work should evaluate strategies to facilitate compliance to dietary recommendations on NMES and free sugars, such as the impact of sugar-reduced food exposure on their acceptance.

Portable smartphone quantitation of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a fluoropolymer microfluidic device

We present a new, power-free and flexible detection system named MCFphone for portable colorimetric and fluorescence quantitative sandwich immunoassay detection of prostate specific antigen (PSA). The MCFphone is composed by a smartphone integrated with a magnifying lens, a simple light source and a miniaturised immunoassay platform, the Microcapillary Film (MCF). The excellent transparency and flat geometry of fluoropolymer MCF allowed quantitation of PSA in the range 0.9 to 60 ng/ml with < 7 % precision in 13 minutes using enzymatic amplification and a chromogenic substrate. The lower limit of detection was further improved from 0.4 to 0.08 ng/ml in whole blood samples with the use of a fluorescence substrate. The MCFphone has shown capable of performing rapid (13 to 22 minutes total assay time) colorimetric quantitative and highly sensitive fluorescence tests with good %Recovery, which represents a major step in the integration of a new generation of inexpensive and portable microfluidic devices with commercial immunoassay reagents and off-the-shelf smartphone technology.

Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system

There has been a significant increase in the skill and resolution of numerical weather prediction models (NWPs) in recent decades, extending the time scales of useful weather predictions. The land-surface models (LSMs) of NWPs are often employed in hydrological applications, which raises the question of how hydrologically representative LSMs really are. In this paper, precipitation (P), evaporation (E) and runoff (R) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global models were evaluated against observational products. The forecasts differ substantially from observed data for key hydrological variables. In addition, imbalanced surface water budgets, mostly caused by data assimilation, were found on both global (P-E) and basin scales (P-E-R), with the latter being more important. Modeled surface fluxes should be used with care in hydrological applications and further improvement in LSMs in terms of process descriptions, resolution and estimation of uncertainties is needed to accurately describe the land-surface water budgets.

Evaluating perceptual separation in a pilot system for affective composition

Research evaluating perceptual responses to music has identified many structural features as correlates that might be incorporated in computer music systems for affectively charged algorithmic composition and/or expressive music performance. In order to investigate the possible integration of isolated musical features to such a system, a discrete feature known to correlate some with emotional responses – rhythmic density – was selected from a literature review and incorporated into a prototype system. This system produces variation in rhythm density via a transformative process. A stimulus set created using this system was then subjected to a perceptual evaluation. Pairwise comparisons were used to scale differences between 48 stimuli. Listener responses were analysed with Multidimensional scaling (MDS). The 2-Dimensional solution was then rotated to place the stimuli with the largest range of variation across the horizontal plane. Stimuli with variation in rhythmic density were placed further from the source material than stimuli that were generated by random permutation. This, combined with the striking similarity between the MDS scaling and that of the 2-dimensional emotional model used by some affective algorithmic composition systems, suggests that isolated musical feature manipulation can now be used to parametrically control affectively charged automated composition in a larger system.